Potential Taylor Rogers Packages

[Tim]

 

If you haven't already gotten a chance to take a look at Jeff Passan's "MLB Trade Deadline Preview" on ESPN, its worth the read. He essentially notes that the Twins are the team every contender is eyeing to make a deal with. The article outlines everyone from Nelson Cruz to Tyler Duffey as potential candidates teams are coveting as we approach the July 30th trade deadline. 

Here's what he had to say about Taylor Rogers.  "though I didn't mention, left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers is very popular among teams that want bullpen help, which is pretty much every team" ..

OK, pretty vague. But I think we all get that he will be in high demand in the coming weeks and leading up to the deadline. In my post last week, I outlined why I think it is in the Twins best interest to move Rogers, using the Mets as an example for what that could look like.

By now we all know the Twins have struggled to develop pitching for, well, a while now. That's not to say that there aren't promising pitching prospects on the way. Duran, Enlow, Winder, Balazovic, and Canterino all look to fit the bill of players not far from contributing in the coming years. The problem is most of those players are unfortunately either currently hurt or have spent most of the season hurt.  

You can't go into the 2022 season realistically counting on any of those players to be penciled in, with hopes they contribute when their development has been stunted. 

Teams, like the Astros, Mets (somehow), and Dodgers, just know how to develop pitching. Fortunately, kind of contradicting the point I just made, the teams that I mentioned, are in need of bullpen help right now.

With a track record of being able to produce the talent they have, the Twins need to get a deal done with one of those teams in anything that includes Taylor Rogers. 

Here are a few packages I put together from baseballtradevalues.com, that I think would be great for the Twins, getting the pitching figured out long term.

 

• ASTROS 

This would be a great haul for Minnesota. Forrest Whitley is the No. 1 pitching prospect in the Astros system, according to MLB.com. Having a 4 pitch mix, Whitley was viewed as someone who could stick as a starter. Currently down after undergoing Tommy John in March, Whitley was ranked No. 64 in all of baseball going into the 2021 season and was No. 17 overall in 2020. Whitley, 23, was expected to compete for a spot in the rotation going into spring training so he definitely is close in terms of stages in his development. He's thought to be from injury May of 2022.. Brayan Abreu, 24, is a hard throwing right handed reliever who has posted a 3.35 ERA in 37IP in his short MLB career. Ranked as the No. 3 prospect in the Astros system in 2020.. His curveball is his best pitch and has flashed a solid slider this year...  Now if you are down on players coming back from TJ, this probably isn't your ideal package.

 

• METS

Matt Allan being the headliner, is currently also out for the season having Tommy John this past spring. Ranked as the No. 59 prospect in baseball per MLB.com prior to the season, Allan projects as a middle of the rotation starter with a 96mph fastball and really great spin rate numbers. I've seen a few reports that he looked fantastic against double and triple A talent at the Mets alternate site last season. He is a 20 year old starter with a clean delivery and projectable frame, should make you comfortable waiting until mid 2022 to see it. Robert Dominguez No, 11 in the Mets system, is currently headed to A - Ball, so more of a developmental guy. He's 6'5 with a mid 90s fastball, that scouts believe has the upside to stick as a starter. 

 

• DODGERS

In this deal the Twins are getting players that could potentially get a taste of the majors this year. Ryan Pepiot, ranked as the Dodgers No. 7 prospect has been fantastic this year at AA. Through 9 games, Pepiot has a 2.08 ERA and 46k's in 34.2IP.. He might not have as high a celling as the other guys in prior packages, but the numbers are there. His fastball works around 93-95, with his changeup being the best pitch. I've read few reports that have said the Dodgers aren't sure he can stick at starting long-term, but who knows now with how great he's been. Clayton Beeter is ranked No. 12 in their farm system. Also working in the 93-95 range, Beeter has been solid this year at A+ with 22ks vs. 6 walks in 15ip. He's worked as a reliever mostly, thought to be someone who could go through the system quickly.

 

Well guys that's my fun for the week, would love to hear your thoughts and what deal looks best!

Thanks.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd do any of those. 

[HrbieFan]

Impressive work! Personally like the Astros package the best. Whitley has the potential to be a solid #2-3 SP 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I’ve been saying to re-sign Rogers, but I might change my mind if any of those packages really are available.

[Seansy]

My preference would be either of packages 1 or 2 but it's possible those teams won't want to sell low on those TJ arms and we'd have to take a package like the 3rd option.

[RonCoomersOPS]

Sign me up for the Dodgers deal.

[TwinsDr2021]

I totally think giving the Astros a established major league pitcher for a crap shoot of a minor league pitcher is a wonderful idea. I am the for the Twins going down the George Bush 'Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again.'"

[In My La Z boy]

41 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I totally think giving the Astros a established major league pitcher for a crap shoot of a minor league pitcher is a wonderful idea. I am the for the Twins going down the George Bush 'Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again.'"

Not sure what this means, but I am still not sure we won the Ryan Pressly trade? He is still a stud, and we are still waiting on Alcala and Celestino. Maybe we win this trade by next year? Weakest link on a weak team this year is our bullpen. I keep Rogers.

[TopGunn#22]

I, like LA Vikes Fan have been advocating KEEPING Rogers because he's been the only guy you could count on in what have been good Twins bullpens and now a BAD Twins bullpen.  The question becomes, if you do any of these deals (and I like the Astros deal the best with the Mets deal #2) what do you do for your BP in 2022 ??  If Rogers is truly your only dependable arm, what pieces do you add to next year's BP to be BETTER ??  The Twins have not YET gotten better after dealing Ryan Pressley.  The Astros sure did.  We're still waiting.  I want and I believe the Twins can be better next year.  When we've been good, it's because we've pitched well.  Do we get better next year WITHOUT Rogers ??  I'm not sure we do.   

[TwinsDr2021]

34 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Not sure what this means, but I am still not sure we won the Ryan Pressly trade? He is still a stud, and we are still waiting on Alcala and Celestino. Maybe we win this trade by next year? Weakest link on a weak team this year is our bullpen. I keep Rogers.

That is what I am saying trading Rogers may help in 3 or 4 years or never, I would say the Astros have won the trade so far.

[TNtwins85]

I’ll take the first 2 deals hands down. Rogers is getting old and we need to get something for him. Remember Glen Perkins ‘13-‘15? Would’ve been great to have some extra fire power in ‘17, ‘19 and ‘20 from a Perkins trade from his peak years. What could’ve he brought in? Anyways, Rogers is in the same spot here and so are the twins. Who knows, maybe we still compete next year with or without him with what we get back in our July trades this year. Retool. Not Rebuild

[LA Vikes Fan]

The question is can the Twins "retool and not rebuild" if we trade Rogers? Perhaps, if we use the money saved and other $$ to re-sign Berrios and Buxton AND we get some relief help via trade or promotion from the minors. I don't think that scenario is realistic, though. I think trading any of Berrios, Buxton or Rogers at this year's trade deadline is a clear signal that we are going into a longer term rebuild and not a re-tooling. Re-tooling requires us to keep at least 2 of those 3 and really all 3. I would rather trade Donaldson, Simmons, Cruz and/or Pineda if we want to go the prospect route. The core of this team for a re-tool is Berrios, Buxton, Rogers, Duffy, Kiriloff, Larnach, Polanco, Arraez and maybe Jeffers. Trading any of those guys would signal a full on rebuild is in the offing to me.  

[RonCoomersOPS]

How about something like this?

Dodgers get Rogers and Berrios

Twins get Josiah Gray, Bobby Miller, Clayton Beeter, Kendall Williams, and Nick Robertson 

All of the guys coming to MN have 50+ control and at least two 55+ pitches per MLB.com. Baseball Trade Values rates the value going both ways as almost equal.

[jorgenswest]

Rogers and Berrios may be the best available left handed reliever and starter. The Twins should expect an overpay if trading either.

I think combining them limits the overpay. No bundling. I would move them in separate deals and set the bar high. Berrios needs to bring back someone better than Gray and Rogers needs to bring back someone better than Miller.

The target from the Dodgers is Gray. Rogers alone may not be enough but the add should be one of their outfield prospects. BTV still won’t accept it but someone has to come in and motivate the Twins to sell Rogers. The demand should be high. If the Twins don’t get that overpay the better route is to keep him and hope to be buyers in 2022.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I live in LA and I don't think the Dodgers are likely to trade for Berrios unless they lose Bauer for the season due to his legal troubles. They would be better off waiting until this winter to trade for him or until Berrios' contract expires and bidding in free agency. They are already way over the luxury tax line but have Kershaw coming off the books after this year and Bauer's contract may be subject to being voided if the legal issues get bad. I wouldn't expect the Dodgers to get involved yet but they are a threat after the season. Also, they rarely trade good pitching because a pitching pipeline is the backbone of their team. They develop pitching and buy hitting.  With Dustin May having TJ surgery, I doubt if they will be willing to trade M:B ready pitching.

[TNtwins85]

On 7/5/2021 at 6:10 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

The question is can the Twins "retool and not rebuild" if we trade Rogers? Perhaps, if we use the money saved and other $$ to re-sign Berrios and Buxton AND we get some relief help via trade or promotion from the minors. I don't think that scenario is realistic, though. I think trading any of Berrios, Buxton or Rogers at this year's trade deadline is a clear signal that we are going into a longer term rebuild and not a re-tooling. Re-tooling requires us to keep at least 2 of those 3 and really all 3. I would rather trade Donaldson, Simmons, Cruz and/or Pineda if we want to go the prospect route. The core of this team for a re-tool is Berrios, Buxton, Rogers, Duffy, Kiriloff, Larnach, Polanco, Arraez and maybe Jeffers. Trading any of those guys would signal a full on rebuild is in the offing to me.  

This is very true but to this point neither Berrios or Buxton have been willing to sign extensions. Maybe Buxton does after realizing he’s probably not getting his huge payday in FA due to the fact that he can’t stay healthy for more than 100 games and takes the guaranteed money from the twins rather than gambling on having another big year next year. Berrios on the other hand is going to FA. That’s apparent at this point. As for Rogers. Relievers on the other side of 30 tend not to fair well and if we can get a haul for both Berrios and Rogers you do it! Imagine if we would’ve traded hunter, Cuddyer and a few others instead of getting a load of CB picks which literally amounted to nothing. This team isn’t that far off and reloading with some near major league talent instead of lottery tickets makes this go faster. Let’s remember that KC and Detroit are developing some strong pitching and we need a lot more!!!!

[Otto von Ballpark]

2 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

if we can get a haul for both Berrios and Rogers you do it! Imagine if we would’ve traded hunter, Cuddyer and a few others instead of getting a load of CB picks which literally amounted to nothing.

We actually got Berrios as a comp pick for letting Cuddyer walk.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I dont think we know yet whether Berrios is determined to test FA or whether a 5/120-130m type deal would interest him. I do agree with trading him this winter if we know he won’t sign with the Twins. If we do, we better be ready for at least 2-3 “rebuilding” years before this team is relevant again because won’t get an immediate replacement.