Article: Samuel Deduno showing progress in World Baseball Classic

[darin617]

Can't any team claim him if they want since he is not on the 40 man roster? How messed up would that be if he got straightened out and was picked up by another team.

[70charger]

Can't any team claim him if they want since he is not on the 40 man roster? How messed up would that be if he got straightened out and was picked up by another team.

 

They could have (past tense). The Rule 5 draft doesn't go on constantly; it was over in December.

[johnnydakota]

If Samuel Deuno doesnt make the starting 5 , I hope we use him as a long reliever or spot starter , till the suspects fail.

[johnnydakota]

They could have (past tense). The Rule 5 draft doesn't go on constantly; it was over in December.

 

If sent down he could be claimed ....

[JB_Iowa]

Looking forward to watching him tonight v R. A. Dickey (and the batters from Team USA).

[SweetOne69]

If sent down he could be claimed ....

 

Only if he is added to the 40-man roster and then DFA'd.

 

He is currently not on the 40-man roster and was re-signed by the Twins to minor league contract.

[nicksaviking]

What's the over/under on how many swings Mauer takes against Deduno tonight? Assuming 2 or 3 at bats, I'm putting the over/under at 2.

[ashbury]

What's the over/under on how many swings Mauer takes against Deduno tonight? Assuming 2 or 3 at bats, I'm putting the over/under at 2.

 

Yes, I expect somebody expects to school the other one. I'd put my money on Mauer, but it would be great news if it came out something like a draw in this clash of titans.

[darin617]

If sent down he could be claimed ....

 

Thank you, that was exactly what I was trying to say. I am not saying who is going to turn into another RA Dickey but I would rather have him on the club than Kevin Correia for $5M a year.

[h2oface]

If Deduno didn't win a spot on the starting rotation after what he did to the American team line up tonight......... the decision people aren't paying attention.

[jokin]

If Deduno didn't win a spot on the starting rotation after what he did to the American team line up tonight......... the decision people aren't paying attention.

 

But, but, what about the 40-man roster connundrum...? They might have to expose Swarzak or something..../s

[Brad Swanson]

If Correia and Deduno each threw 200 innings, I guarantee Correia would end with a better ERA.

[ashbury]

If Correia and Deduno each threw 200 innings, I guarantee Correia would end with a better ERA.

 

Considering Correia has yet to throw 200 innings in a season, and last year Deduno averaged 89 pitches per start which amounted to only just above 5 innings per start, I think you may have constructed a pretty safe bet for yourself in 2013-14 with that "if" clause, my brother.

[Brad Swanson]

89 pitches in just over 5 innings! If Kevin Slowey did that, everyone would be calling for his books!

[Brad Swanson]

I'll try to add something of value to this thread now. My issue with the "effectively wild" label, is that I don't see the effective part anywhere.

 

As pointed out earlier, he barely averaged over 5 innings per start. He didn't strike many batters out and his strand rate was 77%, which is almost certain to drop. I say that not only because it is an unnaturally high number for the league, but it is high for Deduno, if you look at his minor league numbers. He does get a good deal of ground balls and pop ups, but the sample is extremely small.

 

When Deduno actually was able to lower his walk rate, his strikeout rate dropped even more. I'm also not even sure the ground ball rate matters. His GB% was over 60% last September/October, and his ERA was over 6.

 

I just find it odd that we (as a fanbase) seem to be so low on Kevin Correia and so high on Sam Deduno. I can find a whole mess of great Kevin Correia starts, many from last season. In fact, Correia was a better pitcher in the second half of 2012:

 

Innings

Correia - 79.2

Deduno - 73.2

 

ERA

Correia - 4.07

Deduno - 4.40

 

FIP

Correia - 3.47

Deduno - 5.28

 

K%

Correia - 15.8%

Deduno - 16.6%

 

Starts

Correia - 12

Deduno - 14

 

Is this the only factor we are focusing on:

 

Salary

Correia - 5 mil

Deduno - League Min

 

If so, I guess I can understand. However, I don't think the wide range in opinions adds up to 4.5 mil.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Adjust those stats for league and Deduno looks like the better pitcher, if only by a hair (other than the huge discrepancy in FIP). Yikes.

[Riverbrian]

I'll try to add something of value to this thread now. My issue with the "effectively wild" label, is that I don't see the effective part anywhere.

 

As pointed out earlier, he barely averaged over 5 innings per start. He didn't strike many batters out and his strand rate was 77%, which is almost certain to drop. I say that not only because it is an unnaturally high number for the league, but it is high for Deduno, if you look at his minor league numbers. He does get a good deal of ground balls and pop ups, but the sample is extremely small.

 

When Deduno actually was able to lower his walk rate, his strikeout rate dropped even more. I'm also not even sure the ground ball rate matters. His GB% was over 60% last September/October, and his ERA was over 6.

 

I just find it odd that we (as a fanbase) seem to be so low on Kevin Correia and so high on Sam Deduno. I can find a whole mess of great Kevin Correia starts, many from last season. In fact, Correia was a better pitcher in the second half of 2012:

 

Innings

Correia - 79.2

Deduno - 73.2

 

ERA

Correia - 4.07

Deduno - 4.40

 

FIP

Correia - 3.47

Deduno - 5.28

 

K%

Correia - 15.8%

Deduno - 16.6%

 

Starts

Correia - 12

Deduno - 14

 

Is this the only factor we are focusing on:

 

Salary

Correia - 5 mil

Deduno - League Min

 

If so, I guess I can understand. However, I don't think the wide range in opinions adds up to 4.5 mil.

 

I agree with you about Correia... I think he has been pre-attacked by some. If you look at his performance start by start last year... It's not overwhelming but its decent and an improvement over what we were throwing outside of Diamond last year.

 

The 2nd year is my problem but if that's what it took... It's what it took.

 

On Deduno... I am high on Deduno (that sounds like it came from Cheech and Chong). It's purely from a stuff stand point. If he can harness that movement... He can be a plus pitcher easy... I just don't know if he can cuz he's getting long in the tooth.

 

As dominating as he was tonight (which says a lot)... That breaking pitch was money... his fastball had a hard sink to it... but he created his own jams as well and that says a lot. He kept missing the strike zone when Bloomquist was trying to give up an out with a bunt and that says a lot.

 

I remain hopeful that he will nail his mechanics down... Get more comfortable in his skin... Trust his stuff and go to work. If he does... He will be a big value. I think it can happen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree with you about Correia... I think he has been pre-attacked by some. If you look at his performance start by start last year... It's not overwhelming but its decent and an improvement over what we were throwing outside of Diamond last year.

 

Except that once you adjust for league, Correia isn't really much better (if at all). He's going to strike out less batters in the AL. He's going to walk more batters. He's going to give up more hits. His ERA will almost surely inflate. Looking at his NL numbers and expecting them to carry into 2013 is unrealistic.

[ashbury]

Looking at his NL numbers and expecting them to carry into 2013 is unrealistic.

 

He's better than his numbers. -- Terry Ryan

[glunn]

Watching Deduno pitch tonight confirmed to me that he has a very high upside, but he could also be a disaster. Assuming that the Twins are probably not going to be contenders this year, I hope that Deduno gets a generous opportunity to prove himself.

 

It seems to me that Deduno looked significantly better tonight than he did last year. Do you agree?

[Shane Wahl]

Deduno and DeVries are both equal to or better than Correia. For 1/9 the cost. Full stop.

[glunn]

Deduno and DeVries are both equal to or better than Correia. For 1/9 the cost. Full stop.

 

I think that this is probably correct, but I have some doubts. First, maybe the Twins see potential in Correia that we don't see and maybe Correia will surprise us to the upside. Second, DeVries and Deduno are somewhat unproven.

[Badsmerf]

First of all, the WBC is a small sample size. He got pretty lucky IMO. The USA chased a log of balls out of the zone and helped him get out of trouble. I'm disappointed by the poor AB's of the USA in the WBC. For all the hate MN fans give Joe Mauer, he's taken the best AB's and delivered in some tough spots.

[Brock Beauchamp]

For all the hate MN fans give Joe Mauer, he's taken the best AB's and delivered in some tough spots.

 

Anyone who hates on Joe Mauer doesn't understand the game of baseball. That's all there is to it. The guy has one of the best approaches in baseball, period.

[spideyo]

I wonder how much better Deduno would have done last night if Mauer hadn't been on the team to give them the full report on him.

 

The biggest thing last year that I noticed is that while he walked a lot of guys, the number of those walks that came around to score was surprisingly low. Not sure what, if any, stat would measure that. His shorter outings often seemed more because he drove his pitch count up because of the walks, rather than that he was actually pitching poorly.

[Brad Swanson]

For me, walking a lot of batters is pitching poorly. He may have stranded a lot of those runners, but he may not strand them at such a high rate next season. He was at 77% last season, which is very high. That isn't to say he can't sustain it, but it is much higher than his minor league strand rates.

 

If his strand rate is a skill and not statistical noise, he could potentially keep up his "good" results. However, there are roughly 15 pitchers from the last 50 years with a walk rate as high as Deduno's. None achieved any level of sustained success. Those with the most success had much higher strikeout rates. Here is the list (at least 200 innings pitched):

 

[TABLE=width: 192]

[TD=width: 64][TABLE]

Name

K%

BB%

Mitch Williams

21.20%

17.50%

Ken Wright

17.10%

17.00%

Brian Bruney

21.30%

15.80%

Carlos Marmol

30.10%

15.50%

John D'Acquisto

17.10%

15.50%

Mark Clear

22.30%

15.30%

Deduno

16.40%

15.30%

Doug Creek

22.20%

15.10%

Jose DeJesus

14.60%

15.00%

Renyel Pinto

21.90%

15.00%

Dan Warthen

16.70%

14.80%

Derrick Turnbow

23.40%

14.80%

Ed Correa

20.40%

14.80%

John Parrish

17.60%

14.80%

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 64, align: right][/TD]

[/TABLE]

[Willihammer]

Here's a question. How long would GardyAndy let Deduno get away with that leg sweep if he were pitching with the Twins?

[Mr. Brooks]

I think that this is probably correct, but I have some doubts. First, maybe the Twins see potential in Correia that we don't see and maybe Correia will surprise us to the upside. Second, DeVries and Deduno are somewhat unproven.

 

I would think that a 32 year old with 1000 career innings doesnt have much potential or upside at this point.

[Nick Nelson]

Anyone who hates on Joe Mauer doesn't understand the game of baseball. That's all there is to it. The guy has one of the best approaches in baseball, period.

 

I said this on Twitter last night while watching the game, and it bears repeating: We often lose perspective on Mauer with all the local noise, but the fact that Torre has him batting fourth -- in this lineup -- says a lot about his reputation around the league as a hitter. And he has delivered, taking consistently better at-bats than anyone else in this star-laden group.

 

Regarding Deduno... he's the rare pitcher who is 29 but still has intriguing upside. His style is unconventional, but so was Dickey's when he came through the Twins' organization as a 34-year-old. Dickey was trying to figure out a hard knuckleball and it took him quite a while to master; Deduno's stuff, which darts all over the zone, has been likened to knucklers by some catchers. Could he be a late-bloomer in the same vein? I'd like to give him an extended chance to find out, if the alternatives are guys like Cole De Vries.

[ThePuck]

Except that once you adjust for league, Correia isn't really much better (if at all). He's going to strike out less batters in the AL. He's going to walk more batters. He's going to give up more hits. His ERA will almost surely inflate. Looking at his NL numbers and expecting them to carry into 2013 is unrealistic.

 

Exactly...and ERA+ covers this. His ERA+ last year was 88 and that's the best it's been over the last 3 years.