Beat the Rush: Fire Gardy and Terry Ryan Now!

[LaBombo]

First, why did the Twins lose almost 100 games two years in a row? Injuries, aging stars, bad luck, and the inevitable dip in talent level when a middle market team drafts in the lower half of the first round for several years.

 

The Twins have gone from 90+ game winners to 90+ game losers despite going from bottom 10 payrolls to top 10 payrolls. Yes, they lost a ton of games from Mauer, Morneau, and Span in 2011, but they lost about as many in 2012 with all of them healthy, or at least in the lineup.

 

I have no idea who you're talking about when you cite "aging stars" as a reason for the losing seasons. None.

 

The lower draft positions are a good point, right up until you consider the fact that just as the drought of prized prospects should be hitting the big club, they had a massive infusion of payroll that should easily make up for the absence of a couple of fast-rising prospects due to low draft picks.

 

On the other hand, your description of the potential Twins pitchers as "A Tommy John encounter group" was one of the best quips I've read on this forum or any other, and would like your permission to use it in offline Twins conversations, with my assurance that I will fully credit you for coining it.

[Twins Twerp]

Aside from the inflammatory title and personal attacks, I disagree with both the premise and the solutions offered by the author.

 

First, why did the Twins lose almost 100 games two years in a row? Injuries, aging stars, bad luck, and the inevitable dip in talent level when a middle market team drafts in the lower half of the first round for several years. If your budget isn't $200 million dollars, you can't replenish your roster by simply whipping out the checkbook and signing a CC Sabbathia or an A-Roid any time you want. A middle market team needs to develop most of its talent from within its minor league system.

 

Second, how much of the bad fortune can be blamed on Gardenhire and Ryan? Aren't these the same guys in charge when the Twins were winning division titles? This is like blaming a ship captain because the tide went down.

 

Third, will bringing in Molitor and some other GM make the tide go up? No, of course not. Hicks, Benson, Arcia, Rosario, etc, will arrive no matter who's in charge, and then the team will get better, no matter who's in charge.

 

I will grant that the current bandage approach probably won't work. When your pool of possible pitchers looks like a Tommy John encounter group, the probability that you will field a good staff of starters doesn't look very promising. Just like the last two seasons, the long-shot 'if's' are piling up so high that the chances of the Twins making it to the post-season are slim.

 

However, once you acknowledge the inevitability of these large swings in talent level for mid market teams, then you realize we're in one now, and you realize that if you're going to remain a Twins fan, you'll have to be patient. If you expect your team to win its division every year, then you should buy a Yankees cap.

 

Great post. I think the bad luck because of injuries is the real deal. The Bill Smith era will take a few years to cleanup but a decade of playoff contention spoiled fans a bit. TR is rebuilding and it might take another year but it is coming. I personally think this team is better this year and will finish near .500. The middle of the order COULD be above average with a pitching staff much better than last years. Gardy will keep his job and I will make the bold prediction that a strong August and September will warrant an extension. Im what you would call an optimistic Twins fan:-)

[Physics Guy]

...but a decade of playoff contention spoiled fans a bit.

 

Well said. Having grown up watching the Twins of the late 70's (post-Carew) and early 80's, I can handle a couple of bad years. While this year might not be great, it is easy to look forward to the following years. Gardy will have to earn his extension by showing he can work with young players and help build a contender from the ground up. Terry Ryan isn't going anywhere soon.

[LastOnePicked]

I've been critical of this organization's culture for awhile now, so I understand the frustration, but I DO still have a degree of respect for what Gardenhire and Ryan accomplished. In the early 2000's, with contraction looming, it must have felt like it was a small, dedicated core against the baseball world. And with fairly solid talent evaluation and development, the Twins again became division contenders.

 

But that was then. And as some have pointed out, the method that got the team to be AL Central contenders may have been the same method that kept them from contending for the title: a small ball, fit-the-mold mentality.

 

 

I think Ryan is a smart, dedicated baseball man. I think Gardy is a dedicated man, but that's about it. I'm looking forward to watching how the new coaches can impact team culture and chemistry. That's where I stand, at least.

 

Hope you enjoy Twins Daily. There are some brilliant, die-hard fans here, and if you listen (read) as well as post, you'll probably really enjoy it.

[one_eyed_jack]

Seriously? We are comparing baseball records to football records? The best team in baseball was 0.605 winning percentage. Chicago didn't make the playoffs in the NFL last year at 10-6 (.625). If you want to argue that Gardy should be fired you need to come up with a better comparison.

 

Sparky Anderson .545 Win %

Whitey Herzog .532

Tommy Lasorda .526

Gardenhire .523

 

This is all well and good, but we can't look at winning percentages in a vacuum. Obviously we must compare them to the winning percentages of the NFL head coaches of teams from the same home city whose tenure overlapped with these managers. Then, and only then, can we truly gauge their managerial performances. For example, Sparky Anderson's teams in Cincy fared much better than their NFL counterparts. However, during the last half of his Tigers tenure, he actually had a lower winning percentage than Wayne Fontes did with the Lions over that same span. When Sparky was elected to this hall of fame in 2000, I know this weighed heavily on the minds of the voters, and he's quite fortunate it did not doom his candidacy.

 

That's sarcasm for those of you that missed it.

[one_eyed_jack]

I've been critical of this organization's culture for awhile now, so I understand the frustration, but I DO still have a degree of respect for what Gardenhire and Ryan accomplished. In the early 2000's, with contraction looming, it must have felt like it was a small, dedicated core against the baseball world. And with fairly solid talent evaluation and development, the Twins again became division contenders.

 

But that was then. And as some have pointed out, the method that got the team to be AL Central contenders may have been the same method that kept them from contending for the title: a small ball, fit-the-mold mentality.

 

 

I think Ryan is a smart, dedicated baseball man. I think Gardy is a dedicated man, but that's about it. I'm looking forward to watching how the new coaches can impact team culture and chemistry. That's where I stand, at least.

 

Hope you enjoy Twins Daily. There are some brilliant, die-hard fans here, and if you listen (read) as well as post, you'll probably really enjoy it.

 

---Good post. On the whole, I lean in favor of regime change also. I respect Ryan and Gardenhire as quality guys and good baseball people, and I've never understood the rabid anti-Gardy wing of the Twins fan base. To me, they are to baseball discussion what birthers are to political discussion.

 

But while I appreciate what Ryan and Gardy have done for the Twins, I think it's time for some new blood. I sense a certain staleness in the organization. I'm normally not a big "fire the coach/manager/GM" guy - it happens too often in pro sports not because it's the best move, but it's the easiest move. But sometimes, you need to shake things up. Sometimes when the same voices have been speaking for too long, people stop listening. And then change for change's sake can be a good thing. I think that's where we are with the Twins, but I sure hope I'm wrong.

[johnnydakota]

welcome aboard patmearesfan dont let the negitive responses get to you.

but here at Twins Daily (as i should know best) they are looking for a more softer appraoch and no name calling .

Also the guys running this site are prof.writers , they get on me all the time because i dont spell a name correcty

or you the proper punctuation. dont worry tone it down some and have a good time on this or any site...

To me if your fan you deserve to have a voice, but this is a little more toned down site , in due time you will see whos

a management fan and who isnt .

While many here feel the same way as you do , most would agree the time for changing leadership was in october.

The cards have been dealt so lets see if we can bluff our way to a semi decent season , sit back and enjoy watching the

players and the kids develope....

[josecordoba]

This is all well and good, but we can't look at winning percentages in a vacuum. Obviously we must compare them to the winning percentages of the NFL head coaches of teams from the same home city whose tenure overlapped with these managers. Then, and only then, can we truly gauge their managerial performances. For example, Sparky Anderson's teams in Cincy fared much better than their NFL counterparts. However, during the last half of his Tigers tenure, he actually had a lower winning percentage than Wayne Fontes did with the Lions over that same span. When Sparky was elected to this hall of fame in 2000, I know this weighed heavily on the minds of the voters, and he's quite fortunate it did not doom his candidacy.

 

That's sarcasm for those of you that missed it.

 

Agree- Winning Percentages are not a great way to evaluate a MLB Manager. How many games does the Best Manager of All-Time when with Last Year's Pitching Staff? 68. I'm not saying Gardy should never be let go. I'm open to hearing more of Last One Picked's Culture argument. There can be a good case to be made for different voices/different perspectives being needed. after a certain number of years. I am just skeptical of the automatic reaction that falling off a cliff is because of Gardy.

[rk83071]

Terry Ryan is elite at his job, he has eye for talent and knows the game of baseball better than most. The fact of the matter is Terry R. had to pick up the pieces to a puzzle that got tossed on the floor. While he was out I do recall there were a couple of major transactions that went down that could have really helped this organization if they were handled the right way (santana deal, and letting Torii walk without trying to move him). Fast forward to today I give Terry R. more credit for the deals or signings he did not make. When looking at this years free angecy market especially in regards to pitching other than maybe Zach G. most of what was available was way over priced, yuck in many cases. Everyone knows you win consistantly by buliding from within, bottom line. To spend money because you have it is the most ridiculous dumb business decision a manger can make in any business. We are all passionate fans I get that but lets show some patience people and enough with the knee jerk reacting. We have some really talented young players coming through the system lets give them a chance.

[Mike Sixel]

Seth, my brother, the farm system dropped off because of Ryan.....smith acquired some talent as GM. He made two awful trades, but the lack of young players on this team the last few years is all on Ryan. I am grateful that Smith was GM when sano was available, and not Ryan.

 

Ryan has gutted the payroll, such that adjusted for baseball inflation, it is no higher now than the dome days. He clearly will not sign players, even after promises to ticket holders and tax payers. He willfully ignores numbers, see Correia, for scouting. How many 90 loss seasons and lining the owners pockets should the taxpayers and fans put up with?

 

I love the strawman of 200 million in another post. If Ryan had spent to 100 million this year, the team would likely be much, much better.

 

How many years of not using money on payroll, and being awful, should be tolerated before asking for new leadership?

[josecordoba]

Seth, my brother, the farm system dropped off because of Ryan.....smith acquired some talent as GM. He made two awful trades, but the lack of young players on this team the last few years is all on Ryan. I am grateful that Smith was GM when sano was available, and not Ryan.

 

Ryan has gutted the payroll, such that adjusted for baseball inflation, it is no higher now than the dome days. He clearly will not sign players, even after promises to ticket holders and tax payers. He willfully ignores numbers, see Correia, for scouting. How many 90 loss seasons and lining the owners pockets should the taxpayers and fans put up with?

 

I love the strawman of 200 million in another post. If Ryan had spent to 100 million this year, the team would likely be much, much better.

 

How many years of not using money on payroll, and being awful, should be tolerated before asking for new leadership?

 

So Terry Ryan sets the Payroll? Ryan might not have Baseball Reasons for not wanting long-term Free Agent Contracts on a 65 Win Team? Whether Kevin Correria was a good signing or not I can't say. I'm also not going to scream the Sky is Falling about his contract.

[Twins Twerp]

Seth, my brother, the farm system dropped off because of Ryan.....smith acquired some talent as GM. He made two awful trades, but the lack of young players on this team the last few years is all on Ryan. I am grateful that Smith was GM when sano was available, and not Ryan.

 

Ryan has gutted the payroll, such that adjusted for baseball inflation, it is no higher now than the dome days. He clearly will not sign players, even after promises to ticket holders and tax payers. He willfully ignores numbers, see Correia, for scouting. How many 90 loss seasons and lining the owners pockets should the taxpayers and fans put up with?

 

I love the strawman of 200 million in another post. If Ryan had spent to 100 million this year, the team would likely be much, much better.

 

How many years of not using money on payroll, and being awful, should be tolerated before asking for new leadership?

 

Two horrible trades you are right. Didn't he also sign some guy from Japan? How did that work out? I don't get the Smith love. Lets give him credit when Sano gets to the majors and is a star. I do hope he is a star, but it is a little too early to give a guy credit for signing a kid who has not even landed in AA yet and strikes out over a quarter of the time.

 

I understand some wanting a change in management. After two bad seasons most teams would have fired the whole front office. The fact that we didn't makes me proud to be a Twins fan.

 

P.S. Everyone is calling for TR and Gardy's head, but also hate the ownership. So if those guys get fired, who leads the charge and hires new personel? Who is to say that ownership won't mess it up even worse and we are stuck in a pattern of firing guys every two years until we get lucky enough to get a good GM...when TR is as well respected a GM in the league as any. Gardy would be a free agent for like 15 minutes before a team would throw a big salary deal at him...My brother

[Mike Sixel]

I don't love Smith, he was bad at his job imo, my point is, the lack of young players on the roster the last three years is on Ryan, because it takes 4-6 years to get to the majors. Blaming the lack of AAA talent and young MLB talent the last few years on Smith is bogus. That is all on Ryan's tenure....not on Smith's tenure. Yet people keep typing "they minors fell off under Smith" and such stuff. Saying AA and AAA were bad under Smith is an indictment of Ryan, not Smith.

[old nurse]

Seth, my brother, the farm system dropped off because of Ryan.....smith acquired some talent as GM. He made two awful trades, but the lack of young players on this team the last few years is all on Ryan. I am grateful that Smith was GM when sano was available, and not Ryan.

 

Ryan has gutted the payroll, such that adjusted for baseball inflation, it is no higher now than the dome days. He clearly will not sign players, even after promises to ticket holders and tax payers. He willfully ignores numbers, see Correia, for scouting. How many 90 loss seasons and lining the owners pockets should the taxpayers and fans put up with?

 

I love the strawman of 200 million in another post. If Ryan had spent to 100 million this year, the team would likely be much, much better.

 

How many years of not using money on payroll, and being awful, should be tolerated before asking for new leadership?

complaining of strawman arguments while offering one, cute.

[ThePuck]

While he was out I do recall there were a couple of major transactions that went down that could have really helped this organization if they were handled the right way (santana deal, and letting Torii walk without trying to move him).

 

Both of those were on Ryan. Torii became a free agent the same offseason Ryan left...so if he was going to be moved, it would be on Ryan. Ryan didn't offer Hunter a deal until August of 2007 and Hunter became a FA at the end of the 2007 season.

 

Ryan could have signed Santana earlier or traded him while he was still GM. The Luis Castillo trade that Ryan did put the nail in the coffin as far as resigning Hunter or Santana. Santana pretty much said he wasn't going to pitch anymore for us. Yes, Smith could and should have gotten more for Santana, but everyone knew the Twins weren't going to be able to keep him past 2008 anyway, so it's not like we had too much bargaining power to begin with...and that's on Ryan

[Mike Sixel]

What was my strawman? Because if I made one, sorry.

 

Ryan has gutted the payroll, yes, no?

The young talent on the roster takes 4-6 years to make the majors, so that is on Ryan, not Smith.

The team would likely be better if they spent $20MM more on pitching.

Correia was signed due to scouting, not numbers.

[Boom Boom]

I don't disagree with the premise that Ryan and Gardenhire should be fired. If the Twins were going to do that before the 2013 season they would have done it immediately after the season was over.

 

The dip in talent in the Twins system isn't entirely Bill Smith's fault. Even if you believe TR had basically no meaningful voice in Smith's cabinet, some of the bad drafts and busts in the minor leagues was on TR's watch before Smith even started.

 

As for Gardenhire, I think that it makes sense to bring in a new manager with all the new players the Twins will have coming up in the next two years. Gardenhire himself came in just when the Twins had an influx of talent.

[Mike Sixel]

Both of those were on Ryan. Torii became a free agent the same offseason Ryan left...so if he was going to be moved, it would be on Ryan. Ryan didn't offer Hunter a deal until August of 2007 and Hunter became a FA at the end of the 2007 season.

 

Ryan could have signed Santana earlier or traded him while he was still GM. The Luis Castillo trade that Ryan did put the nail in the coffin as far as resigning Hunter or Santana. Santana pretty much said he wasn't going to pitch anymore for us. Ryan could and should have gotten more for Santana, but everyone knew the Twins weren't going to be able to keep him past 2008 anyway, so it's not like we had too much bargaining power to begin with.

 

 

Agreed 100%. These situations were created by Ryan's refusal to either sign or trade them, and their belief that he would always play for the future that never came. Their words about why they wanted to leave....

[nicksaviking]

Ryan could have signed Santana earlier or traded him while he was still GM. The Luis Castillo trade that Ryan did put the nail in the coffin as far as resigning Hunter or Santana. Santana pretty much said he wasn't going to pitch anymore for us. Yes, Smith could and should have gotten more for Santana, but everyone knew the Twins weren't going to be able to keep him past 2008 anyway, so it's not like we had too much bargaining power to begin with...and that's on Ryan

 

Of course the Twins only had him until 2008 because Ryan might be the only GM that wouldn't love to lock up a 26-year-old left handed Cy Young award winner for more than 4 additional years at a reasonable price.

[CDog]

Of course the Twins only had him until 2008 because Ryan might be the only GM that wouldn't love to lock up a 26-year-old left handed Cy Young award winner for more than 4 additional years at a reasonable price.

 

Do you suppose "reasonable price" is often stated about Santana's salary in Mets' team meetings?

[nicksaviking]

Agreed 100%. These situations were created by Ryan's refusal to either sign or trade them, and their belief that he would always play for the future that never came. Their words about why they wanted to leave....

 

Ryan's actually starting to resemble Charlie Brown. Appearnces aside, Lucy would call them both wishy-washy. Ryan was just too indecisive about these matters, it often seemed he waited for a situation to present itself because he didn't want to be agressive and make a mistake. Usually he waited too long and the window closed.

[Mike Sixel]

As for the payroll, the owner and GM have said repeatedly that Ryan can spend what he wants to spend. I can only take them at their word on that.

[fairweather]

Gardenhire shouldn't be fired because of the last 2 seasons. He should be fired because of his record against the Yankee's.

[nicksaviking]

Do you suppose "reasonable price" is often stated about Santana's salary in Mets' team meetings?

 

What does his contract with the Mets have to do with it? His previous contract wasn't anything close to the price he required after the 2004 season when he was still working on his first arbitration year and had yet to win his 2nd Cy Young. Ryan bought out three arbitration years and got only one free agency year, he should have extended him six years as I'm sure most other GM's would have.

[bird]

Seth, my brother, the farm system dropped off because of Ryan.....smith acquired some talent as GM. He made two awful trades, but the lack of young players on this team the last few years is all on Ryan. I am grateful that Smith was GM when sano was available, and not Ryan.

 

Ryan has gutted the payroll, such that adjusted for baseball inflation, it is no higher now than the dome days. He clearly will not sign players, even after promises to ticket holders and tax payers. He willfully ignores numbers, see Correia, for scouting. How many 90 loss seasons and lining the owners pockets should the taxpayers and fans put up with?

 

I love the strawman of 200 million in another post. If Ryan had spent to 100 million this year, the team would likely be much, much better.

 

How many years of not using money on payroll, and being awful, should be tolerated before asking for new leadership?

 

With all due respect, mike wants wins, my brother, I just gotta aske you: given that the Twins drafted in the BOTTOM THIRD of the draft order for a decade; given that the top TEN prospects are the ones that have an astronomically higher chance of becoming really good players (this is empirically supported by many); given that the Twins have NOT had a top ten choice, until last year, since Mauer; given that both times they did, they hit a grand slam in the opinion of almost everyone with Buxton and Mauer; given that the Twins farm system, despite bottom third draft order, has for the most part maintained at least middle of the road calibre according to the rankers all through the lean times; given that the Twins have FIVE DOZENpeole in the scouting and development department, and that Ryan has been very influencial throughout his long tenure with the Twins through lean times and the current fabulous period for the farm system; given that the pre-Target Field budget probably hampered these five dozen pros; given that, like every single other organization, the Twins must live with a few bad decisions (BJ Garbe) and some bad luck (Alex Wimmers?); given the fact that you have absolutely zero grounds for your opinion that Smith should get individualcredit for Sano, andthat Ryan and others deserve NONE; given the fact that, under Ryan this year, The Twins sined the #7 and #22 ranked interational prospects (Minie and Silva);

 

So, mike, given ALL this, do you STILL want to discredit Ryan by blaming him for a drop-off of the farm system that has NEVER been even remotely as bad as you have characterized it over the last couple years? And exactly how much CREDIT are you graciously extending to Ryan now that the farm system is one of the very very very best?

 

Do you understand why I think you're choosimg to be unbalanced and unfair in your criticism here? In reality doesn't supprt your opinion on this subject, my brother.

[nicksaviking]

So, mike, given ALL this, do you STILL want to discredit Ryan by blaming him for a drop-off of the farm system that has NEVER been even remotely as bad as you have characterized it over the last couple years? And exactly how much CREDIT are you graciously extending to Ryan now that the farm system is one of the very very very best?

 

I don't accuse Ryan of mistreating the farm to the extent that Mike does, in fact I'll split the credit of the current state of the farm 50/50 between Smith and Ryan, but in his first stint as GM, Ryan almost always shied away from upside arms in favor of safe college pitchers. That did hurt the farm and it's the reason this team has only had two pitchers with anything resembling top of the rotation material this century, and both of those guys were acquired in trades.

[Guest USAFChief]

Blaming the Twins draft position (bottom third of the draft order since, like, forever!) is lazy, partially incorrect, and nothing but excuse making. Other teams find good players in the bottom of the first round, not to mention the rounds after that.

[Mike Sixel]

Ryan deserves credit for the trades....but how much credit does he really deserve for buxton? Had he taken Zimmer or Gausmann, the system would rank the same. That part of the system improvement is on the team sucking at the MLB level. If you will not sign free agents, you need to be better than the other teams at drafting and developing players. You can find good MLB players in the 20s.....if you cannot, then you are not better than the other teams, you are the same or worse. So, if Ryan's strategy is to only build through the draft and trades, his choice, then they need to be better than they have been. Or, you can accept that team's have to be this bad, and live with it.....but if that is the strategy, why are Willingham and Morneau still on the roster?

 

I do not buy the argument that teams cannot draft good players and develop them later in round 1. Not great, but good players.

[twinsnorth49]

I'd like to know which upside arms Ryan passed up on in his first stint as GM that turned into top of the rotation starters. Anyone know?

[twinsnorth49]

Blaming the Twins draft position (bottom third of the draft order since, like, forever!) is lazy, partially incorrect, and nothing but excuse making. Other teams find good players in the bottom of the first round, not to mention the rounds after that.

 

I'll agree mostly with that but there is a lot of luck involved, particularly past the first round.