Minnesota’s Big Bat in 2021

[Ted Schwerzler]

Josh Donaldson getting a clean bill of health and Mitch Garver returning to form are both keys for the 2021 Twins. What about Miguel Sano settling into his prime though in year two of his new contract?Prior to the 2020 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins inked Sano to a three-year extension with a team option in 2023. He was being rewarded for a 2019 season that saw him post a .923 OPS and finally distance himself from the lazy take that his struggles were simply a reflection of being overweight. Committed to his craft and under the tutelage of Dominican mentor Nelson Cruz, Sano put it all together.

 

Fast forward to where we are now, and Sano is looking to turn the page on an otherwise forgettable year. Moving over to first base, Sano owned just a .757 OPS while striking out a league high 90 times. His 43.9% strikeout rate was otherworldly, and a substantial increase from his 37% career mark. He chased roughly 4% more often and increased his whiff rate 3% over his career averages. It was just a 53-game sample size but calling it unpleasant would be putting it lightly.

 

Enter a believer in the form of Fangraphs’ ZiPS. The projection system sees Sano slashing .233/.324/.528 and posting a 2.0 fWAR with 34 dingers. That jives with a year similar to what he experienced in 2019, and ZiPS sees the production over the course of just 119 games. Miguel has never played more than 116 during any single season in his career, but for the first time enters with zero health concerns and nothing holding him back. There’s no new position, he’s not fighting a virus, and there isn’t an achilles injury to recover from.

 

The Twins have contact hitters in the form of Andrelton Simmons and Luis Arraez. Miguel Sano will never be that. It’s also unfair to assume that the Twins first basemen is going to strike out in nearly 50% of his at bats. Looking back on his career when the dust settles, there’s a higher probability that 2020 ends up being an outlier than there is it representing the beginning of the end. Assuming that to be true, there’s some usable inputs from a season ago.

 

Miguel has always punished the baseball when making contact. He’s owned a 57% hard hit rate over the past two seasons, and his HR/FB ration has been above one-third in that time frame also. Last year his launch angle dipped ever so slightly, and his infield fly ball percentage jumped to double digits for the first time in his career. Only eight players in the majors saw at least 10.0 barrels per plate appearance, and Miguel was among them. His 95.2 mph exit velocity trailed only Fernando Tatis Jr. and he sat second in hard hit rate as well. In other words, contact was ferocious.

 

As Nelson Cruz fights off Father Time, it will be on someone else to carry the load for the Twins lineup. Seeing Sano take that on, and Cruz impart his wisdom on the mentee would be an outstanding development. Miguel has already harnessed the ability when bat meets ball, and the final piece of the puzzle comes in the form of consistency to create that desired outcome.

 

It’s foolish to believe that Miguel Sano is ever going to be more than a three true outcomes hitter but taking a walk or hitting a homer two-thirds of the time would make him among the most feared in the game. Despite being a known commodity for Twins fans over an entire decade now, the reality is that he’s just beginning to round into what should be considered his prime. A full season, no limitations, and some usable inputs from 2020 could turn 2021 into a truly special turning point in his career.

 

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[USNMCPO]

Let's hope you are correct.

[terrydactyls]

Whenever the strike count hits the magic number of two, the crowd begins to chant: "Here comes the slider - low and away." And strike three gets put in the books.

[theBOMisthebomb]

The strikeouts are sickening. Even the better K rate of 37% is sickening. Fangraphs gives a K rate of 27.5% the worst categorization of "Awful".

[h2oface]

What does Sano look like these days. Did he swell, or did he get in shape, the best shape of his career....... like he should.

[Linus]

Another article giving Sano cover from the fact that he has not improved at all from his rookie year. If anything he is worse. He runs into 30 cookies a year by completely selling out at the plate. It’s just not that productive for the team.

[puckstopper1]

My 80+ years old Aunt Stella (who is pictured in my profile) used to call him 3 swing Sano - strike one, strike two, strike three...

 

That said, if Rocco has Sano hitting lower in the line-up (say 7th) and he can hit 30 dingers, play 120+ games and provide average MLB D at 1B, the Twins would be thrilled.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

The strikeouts are sickening. Even the better K rate of 37% is sickening. Fangraphs gives a K rate of 27.5% the worst categorization of "Awful".

That's viewed through the context of all strikeouts being equal in terms of production surrounding them. That isn't reality.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

Another article giving Sano cover from the fact that he has not improved at all from his rookie year. If anything he is worse. He runs into 30 cookies a year by completely selling out at the plate. It’s just not that productive for the team.

Sano is a year removed from a .923 OPS...

[Linus]

Sano is a year removed from a .923 OPS...

Yep and my comment still stands. Nobody doubts that he can hit it over the fence by swinging from the heels and running into some cookies and also striking out 40% of the time

[Twodogs]

Interestingly enough, the so called productive out, which would be the anti strikeout guys might make a resurgence with the new baseball coming into play. I just looked up the teams with the highest OPP which takes into consideration sac flys and sac hits and sac bunts and San Diego has the highest OPP. The five teams with the worst OPP were Detroit, Kansas City, Washington, Texas and the Chicago White Sox which may explain why the White Sox's lineup looked so good last year, but they didn't come through when they needed to.

 

 

Also, the pitching staffs that gave up the highest OPP were Colorado, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and the Mets. The Mets are one of those teams that's supposed to be good but for some reason hasn't been. The Twins were the 2nd best pitching staff at keeping opposing teams OPP low which may explain why the Twins did well last year while not hitting anything like they did in 2019.

 

 

Now if you look at the Dodgers they are in the middle of the pack in both aspects of OPP hitting and pitching. But you can look at the Dodgers as just one of those teams that are better than everyone else, by a longshot. I think when two teams are close to equal in talent that the teams with the best OPP come out on top. So taking productive outs into consideration will help a team and having a bunch of guys that strikeout all of the time like a Miguel Sano doesn't really help a team very much.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/productive?sort=productiveOutChances&tp=team

 

 

I like Miguel Sano, he's been a Twin all his life, but for him to really take the next step in becoming a really good player he needs to cut down on his strikeouts, plain and simple, they do nothing to help the club, especially in a season where there may be a few less solo shots out there with the new baseball coming into play.

[dxpavelka]

Still the most entertaining hitter this team has had in decades.

[Twodogs]

Still the most entertaining hitter this team has had in decades.

Eddie Rosario was pretty entertaining too.

[dxpavelka]

 

Eddie Rosario was pretty entertaining too.

And I think letting him go was a mistake of epic proportions as well.