ESPN: Twins Optimal Year Of Contention is 2016

[drjim]

If you were Morneau, would you sign here, knowing that they are likely not to be serious contenders until 2015/6? If the money was the same, would you rather be here or Toronto or Texas or elsewhere? Many of you state they cannot sign players because people do not want to play here, Does that apply to Morneau? Right field is a killer here, after all.

 

You could definitely be right. All I'm saying is if he is healthy and wants to stay I think there is a really good chance he does.

 

I am not among the people you are referring to. I firmly believe you can sign anyone if you overpay enough. When money is close factors like comfort, team success and ballpark factor in.

[twinsnorth49]

Not even close...but thanks...getting a condescending award from you, now that's truly something. I imagine if I was on your side of the argument, I wouldn't hear a peep. The side that defends Ryan and the Pohlads at almost every turn...in this case, by pointing to an unrealistic time frame to shoot for as a reason to do nothing for the now.

 

Wrong on all counts, you should actually read some people's posts instead of just relentlessly pursuing your single minded agenda. I don't defend Ryan or the Pohlads at every turn,far from it, go ahead, check. I am willing at times to consider possibilities from a different perspective though and at times give them some consideration, mainly because most of these conversations have been going on since early December, a bit early for me. I just don't waste a lot of breath convincing myself of what isn't going to happen.

 

I haven't posted a single thing stating this team will contend in 2015 or 2016, I have stated an opinion that I believe they will be "competitive" however, that's unrealistic? That has nothing to do with giving them a pass for doing nothing for the now, something I have never done.

 

My comment had nothing to do with "sides", it was a reference to your habit of mocking certain posts and then feigning innocence. Yeah, I can be condescending, but at least I can own it, why don't you try?

[Boom Boom]

Seems pretty asinine to me to put together a Twins 2016 roster at this point. They've got some good prospects who should be up by then, but some won't pan out, and others may be traded.

 

It looks like 2013 is (unofficially) being punted. If the Twins were to somehow reach .500 this year, who's to say they won't pick up a decent free agent at a position of need? If they wind up closer than they think, they're not going to kick the can down the road to 2016 just to wait for prospects.

[ThePuck]

Wrong on all counts, you should actually read some people's posts instead of just relentlessly pursuing your single minded agenda. I don't defend Ryan or the Pohlads at every turn,far from it, go ahead, check. I am willing at times to consider possibilities from a different perspective though and at times give them some consideration, mainly because most of these conversations have been going on since early December, a bit early for me. I just don't waste a lot of breath convincing myself of what isn't going to happen.

 

I haven't posted a single thing stating this team will contend in 2015 or 2016, I have stated an opinion that I believe they will be "competitive" however, that's unrealistic? That has nothing to do with giving them a pass for doing nothing for the now, something I have never done.

 

My comment had nothing to do with "sides", it was a reference to your habit of mocking certain posts and then feigning innocence. Yeah, I can be condescending, but at least I can own it, why don't you try?

 

I don't have a single minded agenda. For example, I'm not a fan of Gardy...have many issues with him...but I won't blanket slam him for everything and I'll defend him if need be. Same with Ryan. I've read your posts...I went back and read your posts..before I wrote what I did. You do spend a good amount of time defending Ryan and his actions as it comes to building the team. So, yeah, agreeing with the 2016 time frame for contention is an extension of that...since his actions seem geared towards that. Of course, you did say he should be held to what he says...without, of course, actually saying he was lying...

 

As far as me feigning innocence or whatever, I have no reason to be dishonest...ever...on anything. I own everything I say. If I say I didn't mean something to come out the way it seemed, it's up to the person to believe or not. I can't make him believe or not, but that's not on me. I'm not going to tippy-toe around in here, though. I believe, for the most part, I'm pretty darn respectful. I get frustrated once in awhile, like most, but I pretty much stick to the standard of 'I'll only say on-line what I would say in person'

[old nurse]

I don't have a single minded agenda. For example, I'm not a fan of Gardy...have many issues with him...but I won't blanket slam him for everything and I'll defend him if need be. Same with Ryan.

 

As far as me feigning innocence or whatever, I have no reason to be dishonest...ever...on anything. I own everything I say. If I say I didn't mean something to come out the way it seemed, it's up to the person to believe or not. I can't make him believe or not, but that's not on me. I'm not going to tippy-toe around in here, though. I believe, for the most part, I'm pretty darn respectful. I get frustrated once in awhile, like most, but I pretty much stick to the standard of 'I'll only say on-line what I would say in person'

right

[ThePuck]

right

 

It's fine, it doesn't matter if you believe me or not..or if anyone does to be honest.

[Willihammer]

The thing about projections is none of them are very good. Look at the 2011 and 2012 PECOTA, CAIRO, Marcel, Oliver, and ZiPS projections. I got the final editions for most of them here. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-TWNCNWNIVHA1NVk/edit

 

We all know the Orioles and A's outperformed everyone's 2012 projections, but the Red Sox underperformed by just as much. People seem to forget that as many teams underperform their projections, as overperform. There were teams spread all over in 2011 as well (Twins, Tigers, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Rockies, Marlins, Orioles, Phillies, Nationals - all finished 10 games or further from most of these projections.)

 

This is not a knock on people who like to follow prospects, and none of these projections are forecasting beyond the next season, but if they were, I think its safe to say that they would be even more off, to the point where they would be almost totally meaningless.

 

Its for this reason that I think you really have to weigh immediate gains more heavily than future ones. Nevermind what is going on with your own players, there are teams underperforming by 20 games or more every year and creating random windows that nobody can possibly see coming

[Physics Guy]

You DID say it's likely they'll contend in 2016...in fact, you said they'd contend for AL Central title in 2015 and 2016. On this very thread. Which is how we got started talking about it. Here's what you wrote:

 

2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point

2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready?

 

Now you're saying that your 'not saying it's likely they contend in 2016, but it certainly isn't unreasonable'. If that was your view from the start, doubt we're even debating this now...cause almost anything is possible. We're talking about what's likely. I didn't think it was likely, and now you're sayign the same thing. So why are we debating?

 

You gave one example of how it's possible as your proof to say it's reasonable we'd do it in 2016. And my question was legitimate: If you're gonna use 2012 Oakland As as your argument, why not 2013 Twins?

 

 

Next time, read the whole thing...

 

"Here's what I think is reasonable:

2013 - Rebuilding year, Parmelle, Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Gibson and Hendriks become full-time starters during the year

2014 - Competitive team (80 - 85 wins) - Benson or Roberts replaces Willingham in the OF, Meyer comes up mid-season

2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point

2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready?

2017 - Optimal year for contention - "second wave" of prospects to help fill some of the holes"

 

...then you would be right, we probably wouldn't be having the debate. I said it was what was reasonable all along, not necessarily likely. I don't think any of us have that good of a crystal ball. I will say that after looking back at '14 and '15 that might be a little agressive.

[ThePuck]

Next time, read the whole thing...

 

"Here's what I think is reasonable:

2013 - Rebuilding year, Parmelle, Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Gibson and Hendriks become full-time starters during the year

2014 - Competitive team (80 - 85 wins) - Benson or Roberts replaces Willingham in the OF, Meyer comes up mid-season

2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point

2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready?

2017 - Optimal year for contention - "second wave" of prospects to help fill some of the holes"

 

...then you would be right, we probably wouldn't be having the debate. I said it was what was reasonable all along, not necessarily likely. I don't think any of us have that good of a crystal ball. I will say that after looking back at '14 and '15 that might be a little agressive.

 

So reasonable isn't likely? Are we just dancing around the words? I don't think it's likely we'll be contending in 2016 with a team mostly full of starters that are now currently still in the minors. I think it's far fetched.

 

In any event, fine. I stand corrected. I misunderstood what you were saying, I was focusing on the 'likely' part. If I had seen, 'not likely' originally, that's when I don't think we'd have had this debate, but that's on me. I truly apologize.

[nicksaviking]

So you are saying the Twins can't produce pitching from the minors to replace Parker and Milone? Parker may have been a more highly rated prospect than we have, but Gibson, Meyer and May have on found their names on top 100 lists. I couldn't find evidence of Milone being that highly rated. Colon, McCarthy and Blackley/Griffin can be replaced by what we already have and potentially a middle-tier FA in the next two years (although most would doubt the second part after this offseason).

 

Parker - Meyer

Milone - Gibson

Colon - Worley

McCarthy - Diamond

#5 - Hendriks/May/Wimmers/Berrios

 

Knock on wood, but Beane has a solid track record of identifying top end young pitching regardless of circumstance, Ryan does not. If we are going to judge the guys in the Twins system based on how they are ranked as opposed to waiting to see how they will perform at the MLB level (like we can with most of the A's young arms) we need to ready ourselves for the possiblity they will not be what we have hoped for.

 

Let us not forget that while BA's top ranking for Gibson was (34) and May was (69), Meyer has not been ranked and our last batch of starters were ranked: Liriano (6), Slowey (71) and gulp, Blackburn (56). I think we've forgotten that Nick Blackburn was once a hotter prospect than May or Meyer currently are.

[Physics Guy]

Knock on wood, but Beane has a solid track record of identifying top end young pitching regardless of circumstance, Ryan does not. If we are going to judge the guys in the Twins system based on how they are ranked as opposed to waiting to see how they will perform at the MLB level (like we can with most of the A's young arms) we need to ready ourselves for the possiblity they will not be what we have hoped for.

 

Let us not forget that while BA's top ranking for Gibson was (34) and May was (69), Meyer has not been ranked and our last batch of starters were ranked: Liriano (6), Slowey (71) and gulp, Blackburn (56). I think we've forgotten that Nick Blackburn was once a hotter prospect than May or Meyer currently are.

 

Agreed, this is all speculation. We have no idea how Meyer, Gibson, et al will fare. All we can do is project from what the analysts say and I like our chances. Obviously Parker and Milone have produced at MLB level and our guys haven't yet, but the comparison is at least "reasonable" if not necessarily "likely". I feel much better that Ryan is the one making the decisions as opposed to Smith.

[old nurse]

Knock on wood, but Beane has a solid track record of identifying top end young pitching regardless of circumstance, Ryan does not. If we are going to judge the guys in the Twins system based on how they are ranked as opposed to waiting to see how they will perform at the MLB level (like we can with most of the A's young arms) we need to ready ourselves for the possiblity they will not be what we have hoped for.

 

Let us not forget that while BA's top ranking for Gibson was (34) and May was (69), Meyer has not been ranked and our last batch of starters were ranked: Liriano (6), Slowey (71) and gulp, Blackburn (56). I think we've forgotten that Nick Blackburn was once a hotter prospect than May or Meyer currently are.

The A's under Beane have been to the playoffs 6 times, won one series. Same as the Twins. Beane finds better pitchers, Ryan finds hittres and fielders. In the end, Beane didn't find enough good pitchers as his across the bay rival.

[ThePuck]

The A's under Beane have been to the playoffs 6 times, won one series. Same as the Twins. Beane finds better pitchers, Ryan finds hittres and fielders. In the end, Beane didn't find enough good pitchers as his across the bay rival.

 

Beane also deals with a payroll near half of ours and his team has played in a better division, for the most part. Or so it seems. Astros will drop the division difficulty for a few years :-)

[ThePuck]

'Twins general manager Terry Ryan has publicly stated that he's likely done making any more significant moves this offseason. But it doesn't mean that he's not checking in with current free agents to see if there's a match before Spring Training.

 

 

The Twins still have interest in starting pitchers such as left-hander Joe Saunders, and could add another third baseman to the roster, a player such as Brandon Inge. But Ryan has said that he's happy with the current roster if they don't add any more pieces this offseason. '

 

Twins Inbox: Will the club add any more pieces? | twinsbaseball.com: News

[Nick Nelson]

It looks like 2013 is (unofficially) being punted. If the Twins were to somehow reach .500 this year, who’s to say they won’t pick up a decent free agent at a position of need?

 

If they are to somehow reach .500 this year, won’t we be wondering why they didn’t pick up a decent free agent at a position of need this offseason?

 

I understand the argument that the team is likely to become better and better positioned for success moving forward, as their top prospects get older and start entering the fold. But there are also things that can change for the worse going forward. What if Morneau and Pelfrey have good seasons and then leave as free agents, creating new holes? What if one of the young pitchers they’re counting on blows out his elbow next spring and misses the 2014 season? What if this year is Willingham’s/Doumit’s last healthy and productive one in a Twins uniform?

 

I just don’t understand making no real effort to improve the immediate quality of your product when you’ve got a 30-year-old Joe Mauer making $23 million, and a bunch of pretty good players around him. Makes absolutely no sense to me. There are times where it’s logical to throw the towel in on a season before it begins but this isn’t one of them.

[TheLeviathan]

Cute but not incorrect.

The Buehrle figure came from a reporting of a Ken Rosenthal feed some time ago,

 

Yeah, we saw your report, still waiting for evidence of your claim. Either you can't comprehend what you read or you're, again, trolling.

[TheLeviathan]

I said "supplement the roster with veterans". I never said make "big contract splashes." You're right, that strawman sure was smug.

 

Cute way of pickign out the one part of a reply that you could save face on and ignore the bulk of the post....doing so with an accusation of a strawman? That is some truly ironic stuff right there.

 

What you said is that anyone being skeptical about future payroll dollars being as high as we might expect is that they are being "baselessly negative". Again, to try and diminish a point of view with some pretty smug BS. This offseason and the spending patterns give PLENTY of valid reasons for skepticism about future payroll. Until we're shown a tendency differently, it's perfectly reasonable. It's all speculation, but it's not "baseless". That would be a far more appropriate way to describe your response.

[TheLeviathan]

I mentioned his contract would be coming off the books along with the contracts of the other players mentioned in the post I quoted...

 

You must have missed old nurse suggesting that 2016 payroll could be higher if Blackburn was signed to an extension.

 

Yeah...that happened.

[Boom Boom]

If they are to somehow reach .500 this year, won’t we be wondering why they didn’t pick up a decent free agent at a position of need this offseason?

 

I understand the argument that the team is likely to become better and better positioned for success moving forward, as their top prospects get older and start entering the fold. But there are also things that can change for the worse going forward. What if Morneau and Pelfrey have good seasons and then leave as free agents, creating new holes? What if one of the young pitchers they’re counting on blows out his elbow next spring and misses the 2014 season? What if this year is Willingham’s/Doumit’s last healthy and productive one in a Twins uniform?

 

I just don’t understand making no real effort to improve the immediate quality of your product when you’ve got a 30-year-old Joe Mauer making $23 million, and a bunch of pretty good players around him. Makes absolutely no sense to me. There are times where it’s logical to throw the towel in on a season before it begins but this isn’t one of them.

 

Totally.

 

I think this whole idea of expecting big things in 2016 is ridiculous and asinine. We have no idea what kinds of factors could come about in the mean time, positive and negative, that could completely derail that idea.

 

We haven't been used to this kind of losing streak with this team for a while, but I bet that every year some baseball wonk writes an article about how the Royals sure look good on paper in 2012...2013....2014... ad infinitum.

[ThePuck]

You must have missed old nurse suggesting that 2016 payroll could be higher if Blackburn was signed to an extension.

 

Yeah...that happened.

 

Seriously?

[ThePuck]

 

We haven't been used to this kind of losing streak with this team for a while, but I bet that every year some baseball wonk writes an article about how the Royals sure look good on paper in 2012...2013....2014... ad infinitum.

 

They've been saying that about the Royals for 5, 6 years now haven't they? Bound to get it right one of these years

[TheLeviathan]

Seriously?

 

Yes, and we should all be ashamed for associating with this thread as a result. This was posted in reference to the 2016 payroll:

 

Any player on the roster could be extended. That would include Pelfrey, Willingham and Blackburn along with Morneau .

 

Yeah....that happened.

[PseudoSABR]

Cute way of pickign out the one part of a reply that you could save face on and ignore the bulk of the post....doing so with an accusation of a strawman? That is some truly ironic stuff right there.

 

What you said is that anyone being skeptical about future payroll dollars being as high as we might expect is that they are being "baselessly negative". Again, to try and diminish a point of view with some pretty smug BS. This offseason and the spending patterns give PLENTY of valid reasons for skepticism about future payroll. Until we're shown a tendency differently, it's perfectly reasonable. It's all speculation, but it's not "baseless". That would be a far more appropriate way to describe your response.

Dude, I'm just not going to respond to your accusations of smugness, pardon me.

 

You're using the payroll after two losing seasons as a model for how the Twins will run their business during their next competitive window? Really? I just don't think that's valid at all. The Twins signed Doumit/Willingham/Carroll/Marquis all after a losing season, just last year. That's the kind of signings I've always been talking about. The notions that the Twins payroll will actually be around 60 million and that the Twins won't acquire players to supplement their roster in 2015 seem baseless to me.

 

(As an aside, when correcting someone on their smugness, one probably should resist the urge to be smug. Again, I really don't think you even disagree with me here, you're just taking pot-shots.)

[The Wise One]

You must have missed old nurse suggesting that 2016 payroll could be higher if Blackburn was signed to an extension.

 

Yeah...that happened.

 

I believe what I read was if by some miracle Blackburn came back and pitched very well what would the Twins do. Judging by your comments, I would have to say you very well know what a troll is when you look in the mirror. Do you own the site to be allowed such jerk behavior? Dakota wasn't allowed this kind of behavior.

[TheLeviathan]

I believe what I read was if by some miracle Blackburn came back and pitched very well what would the Twins do. Judging by your comments, I would have to say you very well know what a troll is when you look in the mirror. Do you own the site to be allowed such jerk behavior? Dakota wasn't allowed this kind of behavior.

 

Yeah, I'm being a jerk after this person has insisted on weeks of ridiculous comments. If your response to "how is the 2016 payroll going to be filled out" perhaps we should add 20M for Drew Butera's impending MVP season? Or at what point is something so ridiculous that you should leave it off your list?

[TheLeviathan]

You're using the payroll after two losing seasons as a model for how the Twins will run their business

 

So after probably 4 losing seasons....it'll be better? At best we can hope 2015 looks like 2000, but it's still not likely to be a wild success. And, mind you, that by 2016 the only contract that will be on our docket is Mauer. So to get to 60M will require buying two of Doumit/Willingham/Carrol/Marquis to fit the other 30 or so million available. I'm having trouble believing that is so certain to happen that calling skepticism about it "baseless" is valid.

 

Given how much the payroll has dropped the last two years and not been replaced, it is perfectly reasonable to be a skeptic about how the payroll being dropped from Morneau and others in the future will be filled. You're basing it on hope and reasonable expectations. That's fine, I'm not criticizing your perspective. What I'm criticizing is you labeling skepticism "baseless". The skepticism is based on trends under this administration. It's hardly "baseless" - a claim you twice made.

[Guest USAFChief]

1. When I see some proof that payroll isn't going to keep going down, I'll believe it. Until then, well, lets just say the trend isn't encouraging.

 

2. I, for one, think 2016 is a nice pipe dream to sell fans. If that gives you a warm fuzzy, great. As for me, my fandom is pretty much tied up in 2013. I don't give a rat's arse about how many games they might win in 2016. Even if you could somehow predict what the Twins will look like in three years--which none of us can--how does that help you enjoy watching this ​team? I'm paying money in 2013 to watch the 2013 team. I'll worry about the 2016 team in 2016.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So after probably 4 losing seasons....it'll be better? At best we can hope 2015 looks like 2000, but it's still not likely to be a wild success.

 

At best we can hope that 2015 looks like 2000? Hell, I'd say that at best we can hope that 2013 looks like 2000 as Hendriks, Gibson, Arcia, and Hicks come up and play well. If we're talking "at best" situations, that'd be the "best" situation for the team (not to mention that the 2000 team did not have a Mauer or Morneau on the roster).

 

Starting this season, the Twins should have a steady flow of prospects coming through the system. Will they work out and play well right off the bat? Probably not but it's possible that they come up and start playing well a hell of a long time before 2015.

[The Wise One]

Yeah, I'm being a jerk after this person has insisted on weeks of ridiculous comments. If your response to "how is the 2016 payroll going to be filled out" perhaps we should add 20M for Drew Butera's impending MVP season? Or at what point is something so ridiculous that you should leave it off your list?

 

So when someone you don't like says something you knee jerk and rip. It was just a list of people in the Twinssystem. It had been speculated here that Ryan wanted Blackburn for this year to have a chance to win a job. The Saunders talk didn't surface until Blackburn's injury. It wasn't totally out of reason to have a little hope.

[Nick Nelson]

At best we can hope that 2015 looks like 2000? Hell, I'd say that at best we can hope that 2013 looks like 2000 as Hendriks, Gibson, Arcia, and Hicks come up and play well. If we're talking "at best" situations, that'd be the "best" situation for the team (not to mention that the 2000 team did not have a Mauer or Morneau on the roster).

The thing is, that 2000 team didn't have any star players. I'd say the best case is closer to 2008, a season which reflected the impact that Mauer and Morneau can have. Take a look at that team around them – mediocre rotation, several lineup holes, key player lost to injury (Cuddyer). Still came within a game of making the playoffs. I hear people say, why bother spending to get better if you can't realistically contend for a title, but I think that's a baffling viewpoint. How much more fun was that 2008 season than the last two?

 

That was the year after Santana and Hunter departed, a season that was billed quite openly as one for rebuilding. And so the Twins hacked down payroll and took the cheap route in free agency, filling holes with players like Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb and Adam Everett. Because, I mean, why spend money when you're rebuilding? Great call. Missed the playoffs by one game.