Article: Is Joe Mauer a lock for the HOF?

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I can think of three scenarios, and in 2 of the 3 he makes the hall of fame.

 

Scenario #1 (most likely in my opinion): Mauer has another productive 5-10 years, no more MVPs or 1000+ OPS's like 2009, but quite a few years over .300, and maybe another batting title, evenutally changes positions. I think he's a hall-of-fame lock under this scenario.

 

Scenario #2: The wheels fall off.. for some reason or other, perhaps injury, his number revert to 2011 levels permanently. He makes it another 5 - 8 years, but isn't very good. I don't think he has quite enough to make the hall under this scenario, and fans are incensed at his contract.

 

Scenario #3: He has a tragic career ending injury ala Puckett. Like Puckett, I think he makes the hall of fame under this scenario. Yes, he doesn't quite have Puckett's slugging/power numbers, but he has a stretch of 9 years that is arguably the best 9-year offensive stretch for any catcher in history. I think voters would give him the benefit of the doubt that scenario #1 would have happened, and he gets in.

 

Great reply--the third scenario describes Campy to a "T"--I was a kid when Dodgers moved from Brooklyn and then Campy had his serious auto crash--and yes got in after a fairly short career (in comparison to other HOFers).

 

I do think that Mauer needs to have another 2 or 3 seasons at least at his 2012 level--with most of his ABs coming as catcher to make the HOF. If he doesnt produce another 300BA or a year with power numbers he will come up a little short...

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Posey would keep Mauer from getting some votes as when Mauer is eligible they will compare to Posey as well.

 

Three years ago, you could have said the same thing about Brian McCann. Let's see if Posey can post more than one 4+ WAR season before suggesting that he's HoF-bound.

[jmlease1]

I think Mauer needs to get over 10K innings at catcher and still be seen as at least a decent defensive catcher, along with at least 2000 hits. Another 4 seasons at 2010/2012 levels should get him in even if he has several additional years in decline and/or playing mostly 1B/DH/3B.

 

Hard to call him the best hitting catcher with Piazza out there, but a couple of additional seasons at Mauer's current pace and he's clearly at least #2, passing guys like Bench and Berra.

 

Joe's definitely on a HoF trajectory. I can't call him a lock; a lot of voters would probably have problems putting him in if his career ended at 9 seasons or so. But he's started getting close and I expect he'll make it. He'll get the high BA guys, the more modern OBP guys, he should have the WAR, the hardware (gold gloves, silver sluggers, the MVP, the batting titles) to make him a fairly easy choice the way he's going. If he leads the Twins back to the playoffs in the next 3-4 seasons while playing at a high level, he's got to be in, don't you think?

 

We are watching greatness. Occasionally frustrating greatness (razzin-frazzin' double plays!) but true greatness nonetheless.

[savvyspy]

Come on!! Mauer won't have 200 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, or 100 SBs in his career. He has had ONE season where he hit more than 13 HRs or had more than 85 RBIs.

 

He's never won a playoff series and has exactly ONE postseason RBI. He's a great singles hitter that had ONE great season.

 

I mean if there was a 2009 Hall of Fame Mauer would be a lock but there are literally dozen and dozens of guys that are more deserving of the HOF than Mauer.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Mauer is a lock now. 3 batting titles, as a catcher, when no other catcher has more than 1. He's got an MVP, gold gloves, and silver sluggers. He's in. Period.

[ThePuck]

Come on!! Mauer won't have 200 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, or 100 SBs in his career. He has had ONE season where he hit more than 13 HRs or had more than 85 RBIs.

 

He's never won a playoff series and has exactly ONE postseason RBI. He's a great singles hitter that had ONE great season.

 

I mean if there was a 2009 Hall of Fame Mauer would be a lock but there are literally dozen and dozens of guys that are more deserving of the HOF than Mauer.

 

Wow.

[Pius Jefferson]

One thing to keep in mind is when Mauer becomes eligible there's going to be more voters who don't just look a at the baseball card numbers. They are going to look at WAR and on-base to fully judge a players worth.

[CDog]

Come on!! Mauer won't have 200 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, or 100 SBs in his career. He has had ONE season where he hit more than 13 HRs or had more than 85 RBIs.

 

He's never won a playoff series and has exactly ONE postseason RBI. He's a great singles hitter that had ONE great season.

 

I mean if there was a 2009 Hall of Fame Mauer would be a lock but there are literally dozen and dozens of guys that are more deserving of the HOF than Mauer.

 

It's nice to know that I'm safe from posting the most ridiculous thing of the day.

[Jerr]

I think Mauer is almost a lock at this point. Two more very good seasons and he's in unless he's caught in a dog-fighting ring or something along those lines. Writers will be falling over themselves to vote in a guy who exudes professionalism, is quiet and humble, and played for his hometown team his entire career. New age SABR guys will love his WAR and OBP while traditionalists will vote him in for his batting championships and Silver Slugger awards.

 

Agree and someone mentioned seeing him as a future Twins manager.... that would be sweeeet!!!

[Jerr]

It's nice to know that I'm safe from posting the most ridiculous thing of the day.

 

Way safe:o

[gunnarthor]

Come on!! Mauer won't have 200 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, or 100 SBs in his career. He has had ONE season where he hit more than 13 HRs or had more than 85 RBIs.

 

He's never won a playoff series and has exactly ONE postseason RBI. He's a great singles hitter that had ONE great season.

 

.

 

Those aren't the best things to look at. Mauer's OPS is very impressive. Without adjusting for ballparks, it's above guys like Dunn, Tulu, Cano, Beltran, HanRam, Rolen, Willingham and Morneau. When you take ballparks into account, his 135 OPS+ is the same as Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, David Wright and Todd Helton and above guys like Teixeira and Kemp. That's just his bat. No extra credit for doing it as a catcher.

[70charger]

Those aren't the best things to look at. Mauer's OPS is very impressive. Without adjusting for ballparks, it's above guys like Dunn, Tulu, Cano, Beltran, HanRam, Rolen, Willingham and Morneau. When you take ballparks into account, his 135 OPS+ is the same as Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, David Wright and Todd Helton and above guys like Teixeira and Kemp. That's just his bat. No extra credit for doing it as a catcher.

 

 

Nice to have this kind of perspective.

[70charger]

Also, Johnny Bench's career OPS+ was 126. And he's kinda the benchmark for catchers. (I know, terrible pun.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Those aren't the best things to look at. Mauer's OPS is very impressive. Without adjusting for ballparks, it's above guys like Dunn, Tulu, Cano, Beltran, HanRam, Rolen, Willingham and Morneau. When you take ballparks into account, his 135 OPS+ is the same as Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, David Wright and Todd Helton and above guys like Teixeira and Kemp. That's just his bat. No extra credit for doing it as a catcher.

 

And no accounting for his incredibly high OBP, which is more valuable than the slugging that most of those other guys use to get that OPS.

[Monkeypaws]

Well, nobody else said it:

 

Tony Oliva - 3 batting crowns, health issues, Twin his entire career, no championships.

 

No Hall.

[70charger]

Well, nobody else said it:

 

Tony Oliva - 3 batting crowns, health issues, Twin his entire career, no championships.

 

No Hall.

 

He was a right fielder, and he only had 8 effective seasons, after which injuries made him more or less average. Mauer's stats actually look pretty similar to Oliva's right up until his 1971 season. If Mauer has a few more of those types of seasons, he's a mortal lock. He might already be, because of the catcher advantage.

 

And of course, I think Tony Oliva should have gotten more consideration for the hall anyway. But I'm a homer, and I know it.

[Monkeypaws]

Don't disagree. Still, the similarities are there.

[Riverbrian]

He's in... He's Famous... Head and Shoulders are not going to pay him for endorsement unless they know who he is on the east coast.

 

Book it... Done deal....

[jmlease1]

Well, nobody else said it:

 

Tony Oliva - 3 batting crowns, health issues, Twin his entire career, no championships.

 

No Hall.

 

Well, that's why some of us have said he might not be there yet. But a few more seasons and he gets there for sure.

 

every year he tacks on like last season he starts passing milestone questions like 1st ballot, inner-ring HoFer, Top 5 catcher all-time, best hitting catcher all-time, etc. I really believe that when Mauer's career is over we'll be talking about him as a once in a generation hitter and one of the best all-time at his position, a lock for the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

[SpantheMan]

If he wins 2 more batting titles id say he gets in for sure ( assuming the titles are as an at least part time catcher)

[Brock Beauchamp]

If he wins 2 more batting titles id say he gets in for sure ( assuming the titles are as an at least part time catcher)

 

If he wins one more he's in. How many guys have four batting titles?

[kab21]

As long as Mauer's career doesn't spiral downward like Knoblauch's then he's a lock for the HOF. And then he's probably still in. It's better that he stays at C but I don't think it matters as long as he keeps hitting.

[notoriousgod71]

FWIW, Bill James has Mauer's "HOF Score" at a 66, where 100 is a HOFer. I think the scores are somewhat low as he only has Miguel Cabrera at 96 and I would say he is a lock.

 

Baseball reference's top comps for Mauer by age is Victor Martinez.

 

The first name that came to mind for me was Bill Madlock, a guy with a bunch of batting titles but less than eye popping power and RBI numbers.

 

This is a dankind-ish thing to say but at this point in his career Mauer would be a very underwhelming HOF candidate in my opinion. None of his accumulative numbers will likely scream out HOF, it will be his slash numbers and "new" stats like WAR, OPS+, etc.

 

On the other hand there are a lot of what I would call mediocre players in the HOF already so if you want to compare Mauer to recent inductees Dawson and Blyleven I think he is a better player than them.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Mauer is a lock. The true debate where he will rank all-time. These guys are asking the right questions.

 

I think he's still out of the top 5 - Bench, Berra, Cochrane, Rodriguez, Piazza and Carter are all still above him. And don't underrate a guy like Campanella. Because of segregation, he didn't get to the majors until he was 26 and a fulltimer at 27. He played 10 years and won 3 MVPs. Fisk, Torre, Simmons and Mauer would all be in the discussion to round out the top 10.

 

Here's a scenario where Mauer could be one of the top catchers, all-time:

 

The Twins go 74-88 in 2013, and Morneau and Willingham are dealt just before the trade deadline for talent. Ron Gardenhire's contract is not renewed. Paul Molitor is named the new manager and introduces a hustling, up-tempo offense that jells with his young core of talented position players, bolstered by one more good draft.

 

Buxton and Hicks exceed Span and Revere as outfielders, and Rosario, Michael, and Santana solidify the middle infield, Sano's glove catches up to his bat and his arm at 3rd base, and Chris Hermann spells Mauer as a fine defensive catcher. Arcia, or a gloveless Sano becomes a memorable Twins designated hitter... (Who was the last memorable designated hitter?? A New but Old Problem: Who Is the Twins' Designated Hitter? - Twinkie Town C'mon, we're due here!)

 

Mauer develops into a catcher/coach of promising young pitchers (a talent that he hasn't displayed, to me...), and Terry Ryan is named Sweet Genius for trading to get Alex Myer and Trevor May. (Gibson, Berrios, Bard, Hendricks, Diamond? Pick three and they round out a very solid rotation.) The bullpen doesn't crash, and Glen Perkins emerges as a top-five closer.

 

Mauer produces with a batting average that gradually decreases from .320 to .280 over the next six years. He stays healthy as the Twins go deep into the playoffs from 2015-2018, takes home some hardware. Six years of catching roughly 100 games a season takes its toll. Mauer retires when he's 35, and his contract expires after the 2018 season. He ends up coaching alongside his big brother, Jake, for many more years in the Twins organization.

 

This is not just wishful thinking. Stranger things have happened, we just don't believe in them. After all, we are Minnesotans.

[ThePuck]

Only catcher to have three batting titles.

Only AL Catcher to win a batting title.

Only catcher to lead the majors in BA.

Only catcher to lead his league in BA/OBP/SLG in same year.

In '09 became the 1st player in the AL to lead the league in BA/OBP/SLG since 1980.

One MVP.

Silver Slugger

Gold Gloves.

 

slash line of .323/.405/.468

 

Not even 30 yet.

 

and after all that, we're still wondering if he'll be a HOFer?

[johnnydakota]

As long as injuries don't derail his career and he can stick at catcher at least half time over the next couple years he should be a first ballot guy. He is already one of the best 3 or 4 catchers of all time.

 

Unholy hershey squirts you and i finally agree on something, I have joe as a top 5 all time

[Monkeypaws]

Only catcher to have three batting titles.

Only AL Catcher to win a batting title.

Only catcher to lead the majors in BA.

Only catcher to lead his league in BA/OBP/SLG in same year.

In '09 became the 1st player in the AL to lead the league in BA/OBP/SLG since 1980.

One MVP.

Silver Slugger

Gold Gloves.

 

slash line of .323/.405/.468

 

Not even 30 yet.

 

and after all that, we're still wondering if he'll be a HOFer?

 

Nice!

[Shane Wahl]

Only catcher to have three batting titles.

Only AL Catcher to win a batting title.

Only catcher to lead the majors in BA.

Only catcher to lead his league in BA/OBP/SLG in same year.

In '09 became the 1st player in the AL to lead the league in BA/OBP/SLG since 1980.

One MVP.

Silver Slugger

Gold Gloves.

 

slash line of .323/.405/.468

 

Not even 30 yet.

 

and after all that, we're still wondering if he'll be a HOFer?

 

Yeah. I am confused by the speculation. Only immediate career-ending injury threatens it.

[Paul Pleiss]

I'm with Seth on this one, Mauer is already a lock for the hall. If he can continue to be a .300/.400/XXX hitter for the next few years, even if only half those games are behind the plate, he'll be a shoe-in when he finally hangs up his cleats.

[Kobs]

I think he's got many of the "career highlights" to get in already, but he really needs to start adding to his totals to be a cinch. Hits especially.