Crasnick: Joe Blanton a "prime target" for Twins

[puckett1992]

If this hasn't been mentioned already, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick had some notes from the winter meetings today that are relevant to the Twins:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31214/twins-seeking-to-add-more-pitching

 

His article mentions that Joe Blanton is a prime target for the Twins, which, I suppose shouldn't be surprising. He also mentions pitchers such as Kevin Correia, Brett Myers, John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey, and Vincente Padilla (???) as possible targets.

 

I would expect the Twins to sign at least one of these types and think that Blanton, Myers, or Pelfrey could be decent additions and provide some depth/insurance for the development of Kyle Gibson and Liam Hendricks. Hopefully the price will be right if adding any of these.

[ScottyB]

Blanton would't be one of my top choices. I'd rather they got after someone like Carlos Villanueva who has pitched both as starter and reliever. If we gave him a 3-year deal, he could eventually help in relief when our rotation of the future - Diamond, Gibson, Meyer, Berrios, and maybe Salcedo are in place.

[ThePuck]

If this hasn't been mentioned already, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick had some notes from the winter meetings today that are relevant to the Twins:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31214/twins-seeking-to-add-more-pitching

 

His article mentions that Joe Blanton is a prime target for the Twins, which, I suppose shouldn't be surprising. He also mentions pitchers such as Kevin Correia, Brett Myers, John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey, and Vincente Padilla (???) as possible targets.

 

I would expect the Twins to sign at least one of these types and think that Blanton, Myers, or Pelfrey could be decent additions and provide some depth/insurance for the development of Kyle Gibson and Liam Hendricks. Hopefully the price will be right if adding any of these.

 

Oh Lord, please don't sign Blanton...

[chagen]

I hope this isn't Terry Ryan's quote of we're going to Chase a pretty darn good pitcher cause if it is we are in trouble

[Brock Beauchamp]

Is Joe Blanton even an upgrade?

[gunnarthor]

Is Joe Blanton even an upgrade?

 

Well, yeah. But it's a really low bar.

[ThePuck]

Is Joe Blanton even an upgrade?

 

I guess I feel that if they aren't going to go after at least a #2 and #3 type pitcher in free agency (and I don't mean a pitcher who would qualify as a #2 or #3 for us, but a real #2 and #3), then there's no reason to go after anyone. Blanton would be a waste of money

[Winston Smith]

2010- 4.82 era, era+ 85 whip 1.417. 2011- 5.01 era, era+ 77 whip 1.476. 2012- 4.71 era era+ 84 whip 1.262 and he'll be 32. All these stats, of course, in the National League.

How much do you expect these to go up in the AL?

He looks like he'd fit right into last years rotation!

[snepp]

John Lannan was born to pitch for the Twins.

 

 

 

4.7 k/9, in the NL, sign me up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

John Lannan was born to pitch for the Twins.

 

4.7 k/9, in the NL, sign me up.

 

The upside is that a 4.7 K/9 can't possibly drop much with a transition to the AL.

[snepp]

The upside is that a 4.7 K/9 can't possibly drop much with a transition to the AL.

 

 

True, but the already mediocre 3.4 bb/9 rate that goes with it could very well get worse.

 

 

I laugh now, but I'm prepared to cry when it actually happens.

[puckett1992]

Blanton would't be one of my top choices. I'd rather they got after someone like Carlos Villanueva who has pitched both as starter and reliever. If we gave him a 3-year deal, he could eventually help in relief when our rotation of the future - Diamond, Gibson, Meyer, Berrios, and maybe Salcedo are in place.

 

Villanueva is an interesting option that hasn't been mentioned much over the last few weeks. I also wonder about the status of Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum and what is required to get those mid-tier type of guys. The fact the Nationals let Jackson go and don't seem interested in re-signing him, and Jackson's bouncing around from team to team the last number of years, make one wonder about his mental makeup in addition to his stuff.

[rickyriolo]

lannan is better than what the Twins have now.....we need pitchers

[Guest USAFChief]

Joe Blanton a prime target for Twins.

 

In Terry I trust?

[DaveW]

Blanton sucks, but I would rather have him at 1 year 2 mil then Dempster at 3 years. We still need to target a top tier guy though.

[LaBombo]

Is Joe Blanton even an upgrade?

 

Well, yeah. But it's a really low bar.

 

He's put up FIPs in the high 3's and xFIP's in the low 3's the past two seasons, with K rates around 7.5 per nine. It's certainly debatable whether it's worth what he'll cost to have him pitch for a team that appears at the moment to not be planning on contending in 2013. But he's clearly a decent bet to be better than the likely in-house solutions to fill one of the non-Diamond rotation spots.

[ThePuck]

Is Joe Blanton even an upgrade?

 

Well, yeah. But it's a really low bar.

 

He's put up FIPs in the high 3's and xFIP's in the low 3's the past two seasons, with K rates around 7.5 per nine. It's certainly debatable whether it's worth what he'll cost to have him pitch for a team that appears at the moment to not be planning on contending in 2013. But he's clearly a decent bet to be better than the likely in-house solutions to fill one of the non-Diamond rotation spots.

 

So a poor defense has caused his ERA to be inflated? I ask because our defense wasn't good last year and it just got worse a few days ago

[bird]

Terry Ryan didn't say Joe Blanton was a prime target, Chief. Jerry Crasnick did. Ye of little faith...

[DaveW]

Is Joe Blanton even an upgrade?

 

Well, yeah. But it's a really low bar.

 

He's put up FIPs in the high 3's and xFIP's in the low 3's the past two seasons, with K rates around 7.5 per nine. It's certainly debatable whether it's worth what he'll cost to have him pitch for a team that appears at the moment to not be planning on contending in 2013. But he's clearly a decent bet to be better than the likely in-house solutions to fill one of the non-Diamond rotation spots.

 

Interesting, I didn't even realize that. FWIW: Bill James has him as a 4.10 ERA guy this year.

It also looks like he has a rather high HR%, maybe a move to Target Field could help him a bit? With that xFIP and FIP the past two years, maybe he is a good "buy low" candidate. I could get behind a one year deal for him. Thanks for pointing that out, I never would have checked to be honest.

[DaveW]

Is Joe Blanton even an upgrade?

 

Well, yeah. But it's a really low bar.

 

He's put up FIPs in the high 3's and xFIP's in the low 3's the past two seasons, with K rates around 7.5 per nine. It's certainly debatable whether it's worth what he'll cost to have him pitch for a team that appears at the moment to not be planning on contending in 2013. But he's clearly a decent bet to be better than the likely in-house solutions to fill one of the non-Diamond rotation spots.

 

So a poor defense has caused his ERA to be inflated? I ask because our defense wasn't good last year and it just got worse a few days ago

It looks like his HR% increased it, as well as a slight increase in BABIP and decrease in strand rate, who knows and maybe some bad luck?, and once Hicks is up our defense will probably be better then last year (OF wise), but since he actually strikes out people (unlike the rest of our rotation) it shouldn't matter as much? It is hard to argue with that K/BB ratio.

 

I don't think xFIP and FIP are an end all be all, but it does suggest that he was a bit undervalued.

[notoriousgod71]

This was so obvious. I think 98% of posters here declared him to be our top target.

[drivlikejehu]

I think Blanton is a bit better than his ERA with the Phillies would indicate. I definitely like him much, much more than Lannan. What good he really does the Twins is another question, other than the fact they have to throw someone out there.

[LaBombo]

It looks like his HR% increased it, as well as a slight increase in BABIP and decrease in strand rate, who knows and maybe some bad luck?, and once Hicks is up our defense will probably be better then last year (OF wise), but since he actually strikes out people (unlike the rest of our rotation) it shouldn't matter as much? It is hard to argue with that K/BB ratio.

 

I don't think xFIP and FIP are an end all be all, but it does suggest that he was a bit undervalued.

 

That last sentence was what I was thinking, rather than that Blanton is some unfairly persecuted savant whose actual value is consistently and drastically understated by ERA and other conventional stats.

 

Not excited about either Blanton or 2013, but he's at least got a decent shot to exceed either the pitching slurry within our system or some of the expensive time bomb free agents who've already signed.

[LaBombo]

This was so obvious. I think 98% of posters here declared him to be our top target.

 

What about Joe Saunders and his lower K rate? Poster child for what the Twins' pitching has become.

[Nick Nelson]

Joe Blanton a prime target for Twins.

 

In Terry I trust?

Nicely done.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

Twins also are kicking the tires on Vincente Padilla.....Joe Blanton....Vincente Padilla....Are you kidding me! This must be one sick sick joke Jerry Crasnick....one sick joke...

[Nick Nelson]

In all honesty though, there are things to like about Lannan, but he's awfully similar to what they already have in Diamond. I'm not terribly confident in either one being very good next year, but both are capable of spinning a successful season with some BABIP love.

[Willihammer]

Blanton isn't pretty but if Jr can get him for the right price I would be hardpressed to argue about it.

[ashbury]

Blanton sucks, but I would rather have him at 1 year 2 mil then Dempster at 3 years. We still need to target a top tier guy though.

 

I don't want either of these, nor Correia. They all are about on a par with Deduno, but because they are "proven" starters they command a significant premium in price. I'd rather see them take what they would pay for Blanton, add half of what they are saving by trading away Span for a prospect, and apply it to getting Saunders - as mediocre as Saunders is, he has a chance to provide positive value versus some AAA nobody, and I'm not sure Blanton is capable of that.

[DaveW]

It looks like his HR% increased it, as well as a slight increase in BABIP and decrease in strand rate, who knows and maybe some bad luck?, and once Hicks is up our defense will probably be better then last year (OF wise), but since he actually strikes out people (unlike the rest of our rotation) it shouldn't matter as much? It is hard to argue with that K/BB ratio.

 

I don't think xFIP and FIP are an end all be all, but it does suggest that he was a bit undervalued.

 

That last sentence was what I was thinking, rather than that Blanton is some unfairly persecuted savant whose actual value is consistently and drastically understated by ERA and other conventional stats.

 

Not excited about either Blanton or 2013, but he's at least got a decent shot to exceed either the pitching slurry within our system or some of the expensive time bomb free agents who've already signed.

 

I mean the k rate and BB rate doesn't lie. So maybe there is something there, Bill James prediction for 2013 holds a little weigh for me to. If he can give you the 4.10 ERA and 180 IP James suggests Blanton would be a fine pick up on an affordable one year deal.

 

I think people get to up in arms at this point, the Twins need 2-3 FA starting pitchers. Best case scenario is they sign one of the "Tier 1" guys on the market: Grienke, Sanchez, Haren? Marcum? Jackson? at some point if you want to have more then one pitcher the Twins are going to have to grab one or two of these secondary Tier guys as well. As far as these secondary tier guys go (lannan, Blanton, Liriano) I don't mind it as long as its a one year deal.

 

Hopefully they can get a couple decent cheap effective finds and add on a tier 1 guy on a long term deal.