Coronavirus

[glunn]

 

Well North, if Glunn has known this hair dresser for 30+ years, I’m going to assume she didn’t start cutting hair in her teens. Which would put her in the high risk age demographic.

If hair dressers need to work for money, people like Glunn could donate his usual fee to support her during this crisis without risking her health. He could buy hair care products from her, and she can safely ship it to his house. He can buy gift cards for future hair cuts when it’s safe for his friend to return to work.

What do you mean by this question?

What if they took as many realistic precautions as possible to try and reduce possible transmission?

Our front line health care workers are wearing garbage bags to protect themselves right now. We’re going to give PPE in high demand to hair dressers? Really?

My position has consistently been that we need to provide an N-95 mask or better to everyone before haircuts occur, and that health care workers should get the masks first.

[glunn]

I would love an explanation as to why our country should not be making an all out effort to manufacture tests, masks, gowns, hand sanitizer, bleach, etc. I understand that our President has not been leading on this issue, but I think that we should all be contacting our representatives/senators and governors to demand this.

 

 

 

 

[Squirrel]

I would love an explanation as to why our country should not be making an all out effort to manufacture tests, masks, gowns, hand sanitizer, bleach, etc. I understand that our President has not been leading on this issue, but I think that we should all be contacting our representatives/senators and governors to demand this.

Glunn ... most everyone here agrees with you that should be happening and should have been happening for a couple months now. I’ve been saying this since February. That it hasn’t happened lies with one person, and one person only. I know you don’t accept that as an answer, but that is THE answer. Some private businesses did take it upon themselves to do some of this. And some were in process of revamping to produce when the order was finally given to ramp up production of ventilators. If various companies aren’t set up to produce certain items it does take some time to reverse course and reset production ... sconnie addressed this very well, actually, earlier. But to demand businesses ramp up and produce, and produce items they may not already be set up to do, and produce them in very large quantities to cover the population, it takes presidential orders to do that if we want it when we want it, like now, in order to provide hair salons and other businesses with the necessary PPE in order to reopen as safely as possible. And tests ... we need those, too. There aren’t even close to what we need, far from it. Some states are forging their own relationships and finding some solutions for necessary supplies, but they can’t demand production.

[Craig Arko]

I'm happy to be a native Minnesotan who has managed to remain here most of my life. Which seems a bit more likely to continue (life, not necessarily remaining, although the University has my attention for the next few years).

 

https://www.startribune.com/gov-tim-walz-announces-increased-covid-19-testing/569860492/

[glunn]

 

I'm happy to be a native Minnesotan who has managed to remain here most of my life. Which seems a bit more likely to continue (life, not necessarily remaining, although the University has my attention for the next few years).

 

https://www.startribune.com/gov-tim-walz-announces-increased-covid-19-testing/569860492/

I am glad that states are stepping up, and would like to see a lot more of this.

[glunn]

 

Glunn ... most everyone here agrees with you that should be happening and should have been happening for a couple months now. I’ve been saying this since February. That it hasn’t happened lies with one person, and one person only. I know you don’t accept that as an answer, but that is THE answer. Some private businesses did take it upon themselves to do some of this. And some were in process of revamping to produce when the order was finally given to ramp up production of ventilators. If various companies aren’t set up to produce certain items it does take some time to reverse course and reset production ... sconnie addressed this very well, actually, earlier. But to demand businesses ramp up and produce, and produce items they may not already be set up to do, and produce them in very large quantities to cover the population, it takes presidential orders to do that if we want it when we want it, like now, in order to provide hair salons and other businesses with the necessary PPE in order to reopen as safely as possible. And tests ... we need those, too. There aren’t even close to what we need, far from it. Some states are forging their own relationships and finding some solutions for necessary supplies, but they can’t demand production.

I think that if enough people demand this, especially people who live in red states, then it can happen. Trump can veto legislation, but first Congress needs to pass it.

 

For me, this is a no-brainer, and those who do have brains need to do all that they canto advocate for common sense measures. Otherwise, I fear that people will be going back to work out of necessity, but without the safety measures that I am trying to advocate.

 

Haircuts represent a small fraction of an economy that is going to crash if people cannot get back to work, and I think that Georgia is leading an experiment that will likely have tragic consequences that could be avoided if we had ample PPE, training as to how to use it, and ample testing. People should not have to die because one man is being stubborn.

[glunn]

Here is the article that I intended to link last night -- https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/opinions/bergen-osterholm-interview-two-opinion/index.html

 

 

[biggentleben]

 

By the way, studies are now showing that hydroxychloroquine isn’t the wonder drug it was being promoted to be ... and I have sadly learned to spell that ...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/hydroxychloroquine-veterans-study/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1JzZ0yUm1hWympQGVKf5dGfMelXaoJgsHB8HKeKp1oKql6vwXo0v5kiKs

While that doesn't surprise me, I don't have an issue with having SD have a legit study done in the state to give the combination a true scientific trial. Much of the negative press thus far has been with one of the elements of the drug or another not fully present, so having a full trial with the entire drug on board will give a true idea of the efficacy of the drug. If it works, then wonderful. If not, then there's at least a data point. You need negative data points to find the positive one. Negative data points are not failures - they're guides to the final positive solution.

[biggentleben]

 

I have already explained what I had in mind for a safe haircut -- N-95 masks, rubber gloves, disinfectants, etc..

 

As for my convenience, you can either believe me or not when I say that I am OK with a pony tail until safe haircuts are possible.

I'll be honest, I'd rather have the mask and as frequent hand wash than the mask and rubber gloves.

 

Of course, I shave bald, so it does not affect me in the least, but for my two coppers...

[Squirrel]

This. This is step one to getting things reopened, at Least for one state. This is the priority. Good job, Minnesota, Gov. Walz, Mayo Clinic and the U of M! Rah rah rah, sky-u-mah!

 

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/22/in-breakthrough-announcement-minn-unveils-major-covid19-testing-push?fbclid=IwAR1I_1g2VBiFt-uWs71TDX6jNhb1_1EJeFLiYxDlyzGuZCczie84Og6Z3uQ

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Glunn ... most everyone here agrees with you that should be happening and should have been happening for a couple months now. I’ve been saying this since February. That it hasn’t happened lies with one person, and one person only. I know you don’t accept that as an answer, but that is THE answer. Some private businesses did take it upon themselves to do some of this. And some were in process of revamping to produce when the order was finally given to ramp up production of ventilators. If various companies aren’t set up to produce certain items it does take some time to reverse course and reset production ... sconnie addressed this very well, actually, earlier. But to demand businesses ramp up and produce, and produce items they may not already be set up to do, and produce them in very large quantities to cover the population, it takes presidential orders to do that if we want it when we want it, like now, in order to provide hair salons and other businesses with the necessary PPE in order to reopen as safely as possible. And tests ... we need those, too. There aren’t even close to what we need, far from it. Some states are forging their own relationships and finding some solutions for necessary supplies, but they can’t demand production.

[Riverbrian]

 

If I start project tomorrow instead of today. It won't get done today. Each day I don't start, the longer it will take to complete the project. 

 

It's April 22nd. 

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What if his hair stylist wants to go back to work, and like needs to? What if they feel they aren't in a very high risk category for getting critically ill from the virus? What if they took as many realistic precautions as possible to try and reduce possible transmission? 

 

At some point a certain level of personal risk is going to enter into the equation, rightly or wrongly it is going to happen. Once the R0 factor of the virus gets to an acceptable level, social distancing is going to decrease and it will be up to individuals to be responsible. If getting a haircut is too risky, don't get one. If you are in a high risk group for severe complications, don't get one. Transmission of this virus is still going to occur, it's not going to zero probably anytime this year, barring some slim chance there is a seasonal effect to it. The trick is to not have it reproduce too quickly again and hopefully is stays at a slow enough rate over time. It's still going to be out there though and some people are unfortunately still going to die from it regardless. 

 

Is it time to open hair salons right now? Probably not, but when is decided on how contagious the virus remains in any given place. 

I think most of us agree with this, but...

 

You mentioned an R0 factor. We're not even close to the R0 being under one, which makes every state reopening resulting in more damage to both themselves and their surrounding states as rates spike again, which puts us back into this economic spiral as that web expands.

 

We can all talk about about how it'd be nice to give everyone N-95 masks and get on with our lives.

 

That's not going to happen soon.

 

We can all talk about how the economy needs to restart, yet the economy can't restart if infections start spiking again.

 

None of the good things are going to happen soon unless we clamp down and stay under quarantine until the R0 drops below one.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I still believe that it would be possible to get a very safe haircut if both parties had N-95 medical grade masks and used rubber gloves and alcohol. I am still waiting to hear why that does not seem viable, assuming that the experts provide clear guidelines that are followed, such as no hugging your stylist.

You've expressed this opinion before. And when I took issue with your point of view, you accused me of personal attacks. But you've brought your own personal circumstances into the conversation by holding such an absurd opinion--indeed, you are thinking about YOU and YOUR STYLIST when conceiving of the viability of such a scheme. (Sure you and her could manage it, but can you ensure that anyone else can? And has the thought even crossed your mind? Doesn't seem so, my friend.)

 

Because you aren't thinking of this guy: 

 

Look, I wish you the best. But you have a voice here, and for my part, you are being sloppy--basing it on anecdotal experience and casual rigor. Be better than that. It's just obvious that too many workers and customers would skimp on protocol, because a significant portion of the American population is non-rationale. We have to account for the non-rationale, sadly; so even that you and your stylist could supposedly do it safely, that sets an unsustainable precedent. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by PseudoSABR

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think instead of counting on people to be irrational, and keeping people fearful to leave their homes indefinitely, it’s time for public health officials to start educating.

 

How is the virus transmitted? What do we know at this point?

 

Another poster earlier talked about holding his breath. I wonder if breath and breathing the same air in enclosed spaces is the key. Does whoever said that have any thoughts?

[glunn]

 

You've expressed this opinion before. And when I took issue with your point of view, you accused me of personal attacks. But you've brought your own personal circumstances into the conversation by holding such an absurd opinion--indeed, you are thinking about YOU and YOUR STYLIST when conceiving of the viability of such a scheme. (Sure you and her could manage it, but can you ensure that anyone else can? And has the thought even crossed your mind? Doesn't seem so, my friend.)

 

Because you aren't thinking of this guy: 

 

Look, I wish you the best. But you have a voice here, and for my part, you are being sloppy--basing it on anecdotal experience and casual rigor. Be better than that. It's just obvious that too many workers and customers would skimp on protocol, because a significant portion of the American population is non-rationale. We have to account for the non-rationale, sadly; so even that you and your stylist could supposedly do it safely, that sets an unsustainable precedent.

 

You are ignoring my posts above where I have said that I am OK growing a pony tail rather than subject my stylist or myself to undue risk, and that we need experts to educate people about how to use PPE.

 

Please address my contention that our country needs to make enough N-95 masks so that everyone can have them, and that we need to be focusing on ways for people to get back to work safely.

 

Please keep in mind that it might be a year or more before there is a vaccine or an effective treatment. Do you believe that the quarantine can be maintained for that long without dire economic consequences? Do you believe that this is politically viable? How many people will die because we failed to develop and implement the best possible PPE?

 

My point, from my first post, is that we need to figure out ways for people to go back to work safely. My plan would take at least 2 months, because it would take that long to make and distribute the masks. In the meantime, it appears that using such a mask not complicated -- https://www.childrenshospital.org/research/departments-divisions-programs/departments/surgery/surgical-innovation-fellowship

 

 

[glunn]

 

 

I think instead of counting on people to be irrational, and keeping people fearful to leave their homes indefinitely, it’s time for public health officials to start educating.

How is the virus transmitted? What do we know at this point?

Another poster earlier talked about holding his breath. I wonder if breath and breathing the same air in enclosed spaces is the key. Does whoever said that have any thoughts?

Maybe the public health officials are still figuring it out. The six foot distance rule makes sense only if airborne transmission is a concern, but it has also been written in many places that the virus can survive on some surfaces for three days.

 

My sense is that airborne transmission is a huge concern, and I would feel a lot safer if everyone had a state of the art mask.

[PseudoSABR]

 

You are ignoring my posts 

A theme you know well, my friend.

 

Good night.

Edited April 23, 2020 by PseudoSABR

[PseudoSABR]

 

How is the virus transmitted? What do we know at this point?

You can't be serious, can you? Maybe it's transmitted by 5G is what you're entertaining? 

 

"Look at all those idiots wearing masks when it's really transmitted by cellphone towers!"

 

Don't make controversy where there isn't any. Stop being sloppy, people! 

[Craig Arko]

So there is also this to consider. '26 million jobs lost in 5 weeks...'

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/23/841876464/26-million-jobs-lost-in-just-5-weeks

 

One thing this says to me in my own limited worldview is that the existing economic systems/models lack a great deal in terms of robustness and antifragility. Massive growth and massive centralization reveal their strong vulnerability to a vector that attacks growing, centralized societies.

 

What things can we take away from this in preparing for the next (inevitable) recurrence of this kind of event? I'm sorting out my ideas about this; I'd encourage everyone to do the same. Especially the younger people who will have to get through maybe multiple such occurrences.

[ashbury]

One thing this says to me in my own limited worldview is that the existing economic systems/models lack a great deal in terms of robustness and antifragility. Massive growth and massive centralization reveal their strong vulnerability to a vector that attacks growing, centralized societies.

I completely agree with the first sentence - I don't know of an economic theory that lays out what to do when a society decides it needs to cut back to basics (food supply chain, shelter, medical care, infrastructure and utilities) for a period of time and then start up where we left off. What do rent and mortgage payments "mean", during that period, for example?

 

The nation of France traditionally taking the month of August off for vacation is the only example I can think of, but that's not a long enough period to get into the real dislocations (although I can say from experience it's minorly annoying to deal with from the outside), and also there is a regularity to it that allows for planning to be baked in.

 

As for the second sentence, I think it's considerably more complicated than that. Decentralization, in the form of the global economy, has a lot to do with what we are seeing at the macro level. Granted, at the micro level we need some legislation to take away the economic might of Big Toilet Paper. Rather than "centralized" versus not, I have said before that I see elements of optimizing the last penny involved here - "Just In Time" supply chains are playing a role.

 

[ashbury]

Here is an article that presents some data I have been asking for: year-over-year deaths. It's just for my state of Massachusetts, and is just one datapoint, but addresses my wish:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/22/nation/official-toll-massachusetts-coronavirus-deaths-likely-undercounted-review-shows/?et_rid=24053367
 
There might be a paywall to it, but hopefully this excerpt conveys the meaning:
 

Total deaths in Massachusetts soared by 11 percent last month over the March average for the last 20 years, a statistically significant increase that far exceeded the expected swings from year to year. The March spike in deaths eclipsed the number of fatalities attributed to the coronavirus in official counts, and also suggests that fatalities began to climb before the full extent of the outbreak was clear. While the number of total deaths increased, the state saw a steep drop in fatal accidents and suicides. The phenomenon points to a likely undercount of deaths linked to the disease, according to public health experts.
...although officials warned that the figures were subject to change and should be viewed with caution.

[Craig Arko]

The basic problem regarding optimization in general is choosing the correct objective function to optimize and then considering the constraints to be applied.

 

There's a lot of 'garbage in -> garbage out' that goes on in that process. Too much of that is driven by ideology and other forms of cognitive bias, instead of careful consideration of the problem(s).

 

Algorithms and machine learning are only as good as the data they are crunching on. And who chooses what that data is, and is not? There's a damn fine reason that a book called "Weapons of Math Destruction" exists, and needs to exist.

 

I'd also take a look at Bergstrom and West while there's downtime.

[ashbury]

How is the virus transmitted? What do we know at this point?

 

You can't be serious, can you? Maybe it's transmitted by 5G is what you're entertaining? 

 

"Look at all those idiots wearing masks when it's really transmitted by cellphone towers!"

 

Don't make controversy where there isn't any. Stop being sloppy, people! 

I took HBD's question as rhetorical, and also limited to human-to-human transmission. Breath versus touch, for instance - do we really claim to know whether either is more important?

 

Let's not cast aspersions so readily, please.

[twinsnorth49]

 

I think instead of counting on people to be irrational, and keeping people fearful to leave their homes indefinitely, it’s time for public health officials to start educating.

How is the virus transmitted? What do we know at this point?

Another poster earlier talked about holding his breath. I wonder if breath and breathing the same air in enclosed spaces is the key. Does whoever said that have any thoughts?

As Michael Osterholm indicates, we're going to have to focus on living with this virus, instead of focusing on dying from it. A big part of that is going to involve educating the public. 

 

Freedoms are not going to come to everybody equally, it just can't work that way. Some people will have to bear this longer than others. It's an ethical dilemma based on the principles of equality, but there are many other costs involved that need to be considered as well. 

 

I think this is something the United States will uniquely struggle with relative to most other nations. There is such a strong value placed on individual freedoms there, and I don't mean that disparagingly in any way whatsoever. 

[Squirrel]

As Michael Osterholm indicates, we're going to have to focus on living with this virus, instead of focusing on dying from it. A big part of that is going to involve educating the public.

 

Freedoms are not going to come to everybody equally, it just can't work that way. Some people will have to bear this longer than others. It's an ethical dilemma based on the principles of equality, but there are many other costs involved that need to be considered as well.

 

I think this is something the United States will uniquely struggle with relative to most other nations. There is such a strong value placed on individual freedoms there, and I don't mean that disparagingly in any way whatsoever.

That was well stated. And you are right about how many Americans view freedoms and why this will be a struggle. I have a lot more to say on that subject, but it goes well beyond the scope of the Coronavirus discussion.

 

Thanks.

[Riverbrian]

 

I think instead of counting on people to be irrational, and keeping people fearful to leave their homes indefinitely, it’s time for public health officials to start educating.

How is the virus transmitted? What do we know at this point?

Another poster earlier talked about holding his breath. I wonder if breath and breathing the same air in enclosed spaces is the key. Does whoever said that have any thoughts?

 

I think these answers are still yet to come. It's driving me crazy. 

 

I'm putting this map up again because it's driving me crazy. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-restaurant-air-conditioning-gave-nine-people-covid-china-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

 

The uncolored circles were patrons in the restaurant who did not catch the virus, including one who sat next to the infected patron. 

 

The chart shows AC Airflow in the building as an explanation and that is certainly plausible but you can see uncolored circles in between red circles. 

 

Why were only a couple of NBA players infected while others were not despite playing over 30 minutes against an infected player or players? 

 

Reports coming back that we may have seen a Covid death long before the first reported death suggesting that the virus was in the United States long before the first diagnosed case of it. So then go back to the diagram showing one patron infecting 9 others in one restaurant due to air conditioning? 

 

If this thing has been percolating undetected since January in the United States and passed around via restaurant airflow. The number of infected would be staggering prior to the shutting down of March Madness. February would have been free flow spreading of the virus exponentially unchecked. 

 

Santa Clara County, Los Angelas and the state of New York have released early 3,000 sample antibody test results. NYC released today is the highest percentage with a potential 14% of the random sample showing antibodies and therefore assumed infection. 

 

The initial impression of the 14% is "Wow... That's A lot". I'm thinking it should be much higher when you look at the restaurant map. And I'm back to the question... Why did the White Circle individuals not get it? Why did only a few NBA players get it. 

 

Individual Immune Systems leading to luck of the draw? 

 

We need more testing and the data that comes with it. TEST TEST TEST

 

 

 

 

[In My La Z boy]

 

I think these answers are still yet to come. It's driving me crazy. 

 

I'm putting this map up again because it's driving me crazy. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-restaurant-air-conditioning-gave-nine-people-covid-china-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

 

The uncolored circles were patrons in the restaurant who did not catch the virus, including one who sat next to the infected patron. 

 

The chart shows AC Airflow in the building as an explanation and that is certainly plausible but you can see uncolored circles in between red circles. 

 

Why were only a couple of NBA players infected while others were not despite playing over 30 minutes against an infected player or players? 

 

Reports coming back that we may have seen a Covid death long before the first reported death suggesting that the virus was in the United States long before the first diagnosed case of it. So then go back to the diagram showing one patron infecting 9 others in one restaurant due to air conditioning? 

 

If this thing has been percolating undetected since January in the United States and passed around via restaurant airflow. The number of infected would be staggering prior to the shutting down of March Madness. February would have been free flow spreading of the virus exponentially unchecked. 

 

Santa Clara County, Los Angelas and the state of New York have released early 3,000 sample antibody test results. NYC released today is the highest percentage with a potential 14% of the random sample showing antibodies and therefore assumed infection. 

 

The initial impression of the 14% is "Wow... That's A lot". I'm thinking it should be much higher when you look at the restaurant map. And I'm back to the question... Why did the White Circle individuals not get it? Why did only a few NBA players get it. 

 

Individual Immune Systems leading to luck of the draw? 

 

We need more testing and the data that comes with it. TEST TEST TEST

14% is a definite WOW. Cuomo said today "The anti-body testing indicate that the actual death rate is lower than 1%" - Estimate 2.7 million NY'ers had it vs actual number to date tested positive of 263,750.
Stanford study of Santa Clara shows similar results. This may be an unpopular viewpoint here but - if we are actually dealing with a virus that has a death rate of less than 1% - then what are we doing destroying hundreds of thousands of businesses, and un-employing 28 million citizens? To continue quarantining the healthy is complete madness. This is either nothing, or a minor, or a nasty flu to 99% of the public - and anyone thinking they may be in the 1% - Shelter in place. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14% is a definite WOW. Cuomo said today "The anti-body testing indicate that the actual death rate is lower than 1%" - Estimate 2.7 million NY'ers had it vs actual number to date tested positive of 263,750.

Stanford study of Santa Clara shows similar results. This may be an unpopular viewpoint here but - if we are actually dealing with a virus that has a death rate of less than 1% - then what are we doing destroying hundreds of thousands of businesses, and un-employing 28 million citizens? To continue quarantining the healthy is complete madness. This is either nothing, or a minor, or a nasty flu to 99% of the public - and anyone thinking they may be in the 1% - Shelter in place.

How much less than 1%?

 

We need to shelter in place and test to determine, because transmissibility seems to be potentially greater than 75%, meaning 1% death rate of 75% of Americans is 2.5 million deaths only directly attributed to Covid-19.

 

So, yes, I’m concerned with the economy, and I want us all to get back to work and consumption, but 2.5 million people dying and not paying their health insurance or buying gas would cripple the economy long term...

 

But also holy crap it’s 2.5 million people! Mothers and Fathers and Grandparents... extrapolate that to global, we’re talking about 58 million world wide if we only attribute to Covid. That’s Black Plague territory!

[In My La Z boy]

 

How much less than 1%?

We need to shelter in place and test to determine, because transmissibility seems to be potentially greater than 75%, meaning 1% death rate of 75% of Americans is 2.5 million deaths only directly attributed to Covid-19.

So, yes, I’m concerned with the economy, and I want us all to get back to work and consumption, but 2.5 million people dying and not paying their health insurance or buying gas would cripple the economy long term...

But also holy crap it’s 2.5 million people! Mothers and Fathers and Grandparents... extrapolate that to global, we’re talking about 58 million world wide if we only attribute to Covid. That’s Black Plague territory!

I get it Sconnie. I don't mean to be controversial by suggesting some balance. The "if even one death" argument is lacking balance, and is a dramatic way to shut down the concept of a thoughtful debate on this. Reading through the last few pages of this thread would have me believe there is no merit to debate another side, there is no other side worthy of discussion, and to suggest we start reopening life in America, is to suggest it is ok for people to die. 

The devil you know is often times less dangerous than the devil you do not know. All I'm saying. Everyone has a different seat in the ballpark, depending on circumstance. Some of us are starving, some of us are full. Some of us are being paid, some of us are going broke. It is ok to see this differently, and to seek some middle ground. We need to find a balance here.