Finding Parallels in the Busy Offseasons of the Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox

[Patrick Wozniak]

With the Cleveland Indians' quiet offseason and Detroit and Kansas City not expecting to compete in 2020, the action in this year’s offseason for the AL Central has taken place between our Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox. Both teams have been busy, with Chicago striking early and Minnesota coming on late. Let’s see where both teams sit.The Impact Player

 

Let’s start with each team’s biggest additions.

 

Chicago struck early by claiming the best catcher on the free agent market in Yasmani Grandal. Grandal has been one of the best catchers in baseball over the last several years and he didn’t disappoint in 2019, as he put up 5.2 fWAR for the Milwaukee Brewers. Grandal is great with the bat, but he also brings great value as a pitch framer and is projected for 5.0 fWAR in 2020.

 

It might have taken a little longer, but the Twins struck back with their own impact player in Josh Donaldson. Although Anthony Rendon was the best third baseman on the market, Donaldson is still one of the top free agents, and was the last impact player left on the board. Donaldson adds another elite bat to the lineup and improves the infield defense as well. He was good for 4.9 fWAR in 2019 and is projected for 5.3 fWAR in 2020.

 

Both players are signed for the next four seasons and show both clubs’ commitment to winning in the near term.

 

New Starters

 

Like the Twins, the White Sox were looking to solidify their starting rotation. And like the Twins, they set their targets on Zach Wheeler and came up short (though they were reportedly the highest bidders). However, they have been able to add a couple of veteran starters in Dallas Keuchel (3 yr, $55 million) and Gio Gonzalez (1 yr, $5 million). Keuchel was good for 0.8 fWAR in a partial season with the Atlanta Braves and is projected for 2.4 fWAR in 2020. Gonzalez put up 1.4 fWAR in just 87.1 innings for the Milwaukee Brewers last year and the 34-year-old projects for 1.1 fWAR this season.

 

Minnesota recently countered with two veteran signings of its own. Rich Hill (1 yr, $3 million + incentives) threw just 582/3 innings in 2019 and the soon-to-be 40-year-old won’t be joining the rotation until sometime in the second half (hopefully!), but when healthy he has been a very good pitcher. He pitched to a 2.45 ERA in 2019 (0.9 fWAR) and is projected for 1.2 fWAR in 2020. The Twins' other signing, Homer Bailey (1 yr, $7 million), has also struggled with injuries throughout his career, but pitched pretty well last season with 2.9 fWAR, and his success using a splitter in the second half gives Minnesota some hope. Bailey is projected for 1.4 fWAR in 2020.

 

Other New Faces

 

Chicago also added veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion (1 yr, $12 million w/club option), reliever Steve Chishek (1 yr, $6 million w/club option), and outfielder Nomar Mazara (acquired through trade). Encarnacion put up 2.5 fWAR last season and is projected for 1.9 fWAR this year. Chishek pitched to a very good 2.95 ERA for the Chicago Cubs last year, but FanGraphs Steamer sees the 33-year-old as regressing to a 4.71 ERA this year. Mazara is a below average hitter and defender and has never topped 0.9 fWAR, but is projected for 1.4 fWAR this year and is still just 24-years-old.

 

Minnesota was able to bring in left-hand hitting Alex Avila (1 yr, $4.25 million) to back up Mitch Garver behind the plate and brought in Tyler Clippard (1 yr, $2.75 million) to bolster the bullpen. Like Grandal, Avila rates well as a pitch framer and hits righties well. The soon-to-be 34-year old produced 1.3 fWAR last year and is projected for 1.1 fWAR. Clippard was great for the Cleveland Indians in 2019 (2.90 ERA), but like Chicago’s Chisek, is expected to regress (projected 4.99 ERA), due to the fact that he will be 35-years-old this season.

 

Familiar Faces Return

 

Chicago offered long-time first baseman Jose Abreu the qualifying offer and he accepted. However, the two sides quickly agreed to an extension that will keep Abreu in Chicago for the next three seasons at a cost of $50 million. The 33-year-old had 1.9 fWAR in 2019 and is projected for a similar 1.8 fWAR in 2020.

 

Minnesota was able to bring back three important pieces of the 2019 team in starters Jake Odorizzi (1 yr, $17.8 million) and Michael Pineda (2 yr, $20 million), along with veteran reliever Sergio Romo (1 yr, $5 million with club option). Although Twins fans wanted to see the team bring in a big-name FA pitcher, Minnesota did well to bring back two of their best pitchers from last season, while getting a second year of Pineda at a very low cost. Romo is a fan favorite whose slider-heavy approach has aged particularly well. Odorizzi, Pineda, and Romo produced 4.3, 2.7, and 1.0 fWAR respectively in 2019 and project for 2.3, 1.7, and 0.1 fWAR this season.

 

The Extensions

 

Finally, both teams made an important extension this offseason. For the second year in a row, Chicago signed an extension with a player yet to make his MLB debut. Top prospect Luis Robert (6 yr, $50 million with two club options) was dominant in the minors last year and will likely open 2020 as the White Sox’s center fielder, where he is projected for 2.9 fWAR.

 

Not to be outdone, the Twins and Miguel Sano recently agreed to a three-year, $30 million extension with a fourth-year club option. The slugger will make the transition from third to first base this year to make room for Donaldson. Sano put up 2.7 fWAR in 2019 and is projected for 2.3 fWAR this year, but if 2020 is anything like his second half of 2019, Sano could eclipse those numbers.

 

Final Thoughts

 

While Minnesota is coming off a 101-win season, Chicago won just 72 games last season. To expect Chicago to compete for the AL Central this year might be a little overly optimistic, but one can easily appreciate the effort they have made. Their core is younger and still coming along but they’ve done a nice job of supplementing their talent and should see improvement in 2020.

 

Meanwhile, Minnesota was finally able to add an impact player in Josh Donaldson, and while not adding an “ace” to the rotation, they’ve at least filled the rotation with competent starters. Other boxes were checked (backup catcher, additional bullpen arms) and though it seems they may be done, Minnesota will likely continue to monitor the trade market for starting pitching.

 

It’s been an interesting offseason, and although Cleveland probably remains Minnesota’s most dangerous AL Central threat, Chicago has done well to put themselves on the Twins radar.

 

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[blindeke]

I guess we'll see about Luis Robert, but Keuchel, Abreu, and Encarnacion don't scare me all that much.

[bustedstuff88]

Why do people keep saying the Indians are still our biggest threat? To me this doesnt really make much sense....They are definitely weaker now than they were at this time last year. 

[Monkeypaws]

I really like what the Sox have done mixing old and new. Twins-White Sox is a great rivalry when they are both good, which is pretty rare, and I look forward to many years of meaningful games.

 

 

[mikelink45]

Both teams did well, but neither achieved the big step of a quality SP.  I like Kuechel better than our injured for at least the first half Hill and Bailey.

[JoshDungan1]

Where I think the Twins remain well in front (even with their infield fielding issues last season) of the Sox is definitely in fielding, particularly in the outfield. If Rosario can pull his weight defensively again after whatever the hell happened to him last season and Bucky can stay healthy, the Twins have a truly massive advantage in OF fielding.

 

Injuries and how the teams weather them will obviously also be important, and from what I remember, the White Sox had a number of pitchers go down last season. They'll obviously need to build them back up after missing a lot of last season, so the more the Twins can do to build a lead early and then add on a top-end starter to push the rest of the rotation even higher, the more likely the Twins will have what it takes to be right back on top of the division in nine months' time.

[jkcarew]

Moncada, Jimenez, Giolito, Robert...don't forget Kopech who dominated AAA as a 22-year old in 2018. All these guys are younger than any 2020 Twins contributor figures to be with the exceptions of Arraez and Graterol.

 

Maybe not this year...but they're coming. Nice article.

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

Why do people keep saying the Indians are still our biggest threat? To me this doesnt really make much sense....They are definitely weaker now than they were at this time last year. 

Because they were much better than the Sox last year and still have really good pitching along with Lindor and Ramirez. I still think Minnesota is significantly better and am not scared of Cleveland, but I would bet that they will win more games than Chicago this year. But in a year or two Chicago should pass Cleveland.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Looks like both teams added a roughly equal amount of talent. I still think the Sox are a little behind us, but I wouldn't sleep on them.... 

[darin617]

AL central window is closing rapidly for the Twins. The Sox will not hesitate to make moves and they have always been aggressive when they need to. Maybe not 2020, but I would be thinking 2021 will be the changing of the guard on top of the AL Central if the Twins can't make a trade for a top starter or if prospects can't make the jump to the majors.

[howieramone2]

America's Team still hasn't decided if they are a large market team or not. Reinsdorf is the only owner I'm aware of worse than the Pohlads.