Front Page: 4 Questions the Twins Need to Address Concerning Their Potential Playoff Roster

[ashbury]

I am for a ten man pitching staff and adjusting each series.  I am not convinced that starting pitchers can be put in the pen and suddenly become good RP.  Three starters!  Lots of flexibility. 

I don't know whether marathon games are more frequent in the post-season than in the regular. I'd be kind of leery of an extremely lean pitching staff that pretty much sells out to every game being decided in 9, or 10 at most.

[DocBauer]

A great topic, and FUN ONE! Especially after last season.

 

To me, this seems pretty easy with the caveat everyone is healthy and ready to go, naturally. And a second caveat that September could bring an unexpected surprise: i.e. someone like Graterol could make things difficult, let me say I'm totally onboard for Graterol look see for September, along with others, but I'm just not buying in to him being a difference maker at this point.

 

Players: [13]

 

Rosario

Buxton

Kepler

Cruz

Sano

Polanco

Arraez

Cron

Gonzalez

Adrianza

Schoop

Garver

Castro

 

Pitchers: [11]

 

Berrios

Odorizzi

Pineda

Gibson

 

Perez

Dyson

Rogers

Romo

May

Duffy

Littell

 

Your 25th man spot comes down to a 14th position player or 12th pitcher. As much as I love a HEALTHY Astudillo and believe he is a quality bat when healthy, Cave would be the easy choice. He is a far better player than he showed most of the season until finally getting hot lately. Now, I don't expect him to keep up his currently torrid pace, but I think he makes the most sense. He also offers decent speed as a PR.

 

I'm pretty bullish on Littell as a member of the pen. And while there is no guarantee Perez would be successful out of the pen, he offers a LH in the pen who could assume a number of roles. Right now, we're the Twins to decide on a 12th pitcher, I'm not so sure it wouldn't be Thorpe. I love Smeltzer, but with a good September, Thorpe has better SO stuff.

 

There could be a surprise, of course, but to me it's Cave or the 12th pitcher.

[IndyTwinsFan]

I agree.  Plus, it would be odd and perhaps unprecedented to leave off a popular (and relatively productive) player who has been on the roster all season.

I'm completely in line with this logic regarding Schoop.

[IndyTwinsFan]

If Astudillo is not on the 25-man player roster for the playoffs, is it possible they keep him on as a coach/cheerleader on the bench?

 

Agree with the logic. However, I'm not sure that MLB would allow a non-roster player in the dugout for this purpose. I'm also guessing that the opposing team would need to buy off. Unlikely that would happen.

[Mr. Brooks]

Agree with the logic. However, I'm not sure that MLB would allow a non-roster player in the dugout for this purpose. I'm also guessing that the opposing team would need to buy off. Unlikely that would happen.

Astudillo was frequently in the dugout during games while he was on the IL this season.

I don't believe there is any rule regarding who can or can't be in a team's dugout.

[woolywoolhouse]

From http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/postseason-roster-rules-eligibility - 

 

Teams carry extra players throughout the postseason in the event of injuries, and those players, as well as players on the injured list, can be in the dugout during games, within reason.

 

So Astudillo travels in case Garver or Castro go down with an injury, to be available the next game. He could probably even be a bullpen catcher or warm-up catcher if needed.

 

 

Astudillo was frequently in the dugout during games while he was on the IL this season.
I don't believe there is any rule regarding who can or can't be in a team's dugout.

 

[Riverbrian]

What's the chances Smeltzer even sees multiple starts before the playoffs start? I think there's about zero chance he is even considered for a playoff start. Probably a much better chance he is left off the playoff roster IMO.

In my eyes. That’s a fundamental problem. Not Smeltzer specifically.

 

This is how health can hurt you.

 

All the other teams have 6th and 7th choices with a decent amount of innings. The 6th choice has had the chance to show they are better than the 5th choice or the chance to show that they are not better.

 

We will roll with the 5th choice and say it’s the best we can do. We have created no options or escape valves for ourselves.

[Det95Twins]

Rosario Buxton Kepler Gonzalez Sano Polanco Schoop Cron Garver Cruz Adrianza Castro Arraez Pineda Berrios Perez Odorizzi Gibson Rogers Romo Dyson May Littell Duffey Harper. The only tough call is the last relief pitcher. If Buxton is injured, then Cave. Pineda Berrios and Odorizzi start. Gibson gets a start but only at home.

[nokomismod]

 

What's the chances Smeltzer even sees multiple starts before the playoffs start?  I think there's about zero chance he is even considered for a playoff start.  Probably a much better chance he is left off the playoff roster IMO.

I'd love to see them go the six or seven starters route (Smeltzer or Thorpe) in September or have those two guys step in and skip starts for the others. If either of them looks really good why not consider them as playoff starters. The rotation as it stands right now does not seem capable of playoff magic.

[gagu]

The 5-game ALDS series roster formation is the question here. Rosters are reformulated after each series. A roster vs the Astros may be tailored differently than vs the Yankees.

Some teams run with three starters in a 5-game series and some continue with it throughout the post-season. In '87 and '91, they had Viola, Blyleven, and Straker; and Morris, Tapani, and Erickson pitching on three days rest in each series.Last season in the playoffs, the only teams using a pitcher or pitchers with 3-days rest were the Braves in the NLDS and the Brewers in the NLCS. Both clubs were eliminated. The '19 Twins starting staff isn't set for that. Barring injury, it's pretty much a lock the Twins will roster four set starters.

Last season, the eight teams in the divisional series' went three different routes, with 11, 12, or 13 man pitching staffs. 

Barring an injury to a rostered player, Graterol won't be eligible for the post-season if he isn't added to the 40-man roster by midnight on Saturday. With the one open spot lingering, it makes me wonder if the team is still weighing options on post-season scenarios. Graterol, Alcala, Gordon, Miller?

Anyway, while I love the speculation here, the reality a month from now will tell the tale. Cave would seem like a lock if the playoffs started tomorrow; not a lock in October. The fate of a few relievers could hinge on how well they're throwing at the end of September. The team can roll the dice on a hot hand for a 5-game roster.

As for Schoop being a near lock because he's played so much, it isn't written in stone. 30-game starter Chase Anderson was left off the Brewers roster last October. In 2016, the Cubs dropped 15-game winner Jason Hammel and Joe Szczur, and Tommy La Stella was left off the NLCS roster. That's off the top of my head.

[yarnivek1972]

I still think the most likely addition being considered for the postseason roster is Ryan O’Rourke. Why acquire him (specifically him) if there is no intent to let him pitch? He’s a loogy, has always been a loogy and always will be. Which means that with the “3 batter minimum” looming, this could be his last chance to pitch at the MLB level

[beckmt]

It is a question of which 4 starters do you keep, right now the two worst Twins starters are Gibson and Berrios. Problem is that Cleveland won't go away, so the Twins could go to a 6 man rotation and give the starters extra rest.  I believe all you have to be is on the 40 man on september1 to be eligible for the postseason.  Think the Twins will have about 35 players here to choose from at the end of the month. We should get a better feel for the offseason, by whom the Twins keep for the playoffs.  

[jorgenswest]

I still think the most likely addition being considered for the postseason roster is Ryan O’Rourke. Why acquire him (specifically him) if there is no intent to let him pitch? He’s a loogy, has always been a loogy and always will be. Which means that with the “3 batter minimum” looming, this could be his last chance to pitch at the MLB level

I agree but they are letting him pitch in AAA.

 

He had trouble with command (as shown by walks) prior to be acquired. If that problem has persisted they may not want to give him the spot on the 4.

[yarnivek1972]

I agree but they are letting him pitch in AAA.

 

He had trouble with command (as shown by walks) prior to be acquired. If that problem has persisted they may not want to give him the spot on the 4.

There were plenty of pitchers DFA in late July/early August. Plenty with more MLB experience than O’Rourke and plenty that aren’t loogys. The only reason to get O’Rourke is because he is a loogy, something noticeably absent from the Twins pen. Walks are definitely a concern, but he’s been just about unhittable by LHB at AAA and MLB for 3 years.

 

His walks seem to come in bunches. He’s had three 3 walk games this year, all in the last 5 weeks. If he were only walking RHB, I would be less concerned. But 14 walks to 83 LHB is at least double what it should be.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I still think the most likely addition being considered for the postseason roster is Ryan O’Rourke. Why acquire him (specifically him) if there is no intent to let him pitch?

The Twins sign AAA depth like O'Rourke all the time, it doesn't necessarily mean they intend to give him a MLB roster spot, especially not in the postseason. We were depleting Rochester's staff with our call-ups too, while Rochester was fighting for a playoff spot themselves.

 

FWIW, O'Rourke is not being deployed as a LOOGY at AAA right now. 10 innings pitched in 6 games (and 9 walks in that time too).

 

I could see him being a September LOOGY in MLB if we have a 40-man spot to spare (injury?), far more than I can see them putting him on a postseason roster.

Edited August 29, 2019 by spycake

[yarnivek1972]

There were other guys that could have been used as org fill at AAA. The only reason to get O’Rourke is to use him as a loogy. I wouldn’t expect him to be used as a loogy in AAA though. It’s the highest level of milb, but it is still milb. It’s more important that he get regular work than to limit who he faces.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There were other guys that could have been used as org fill at AAA. The only reason to get O’Rourke is to use him as a loogy.

I really don't follow this line of thinking. There were also other guys they could have used instead of De Aza, Barnes, Flores, Miller, and Krol too, but they added all of them to Rochester's roster the same as O'Rourke. The very definition of org fill is that they are pretty interchangeable, and O'Rourke seems to fit that description.

 

O'Rourke had a 3.27 ERA across 36 games and 44 innings for the Mets AAA club this year. Why couldn't the Twins pick him up to help their own AAA club?

[yarnivek1972]

O’Rourke doesn’t fit the description of a “filler” player because he’s a niche player. He’s always only going to be a guy that gets out LHB. Any reliever can be a filler. Sure, it’s POSSIBLE that is why they picked up O’Rourke. But of all the guys that could have been acquired to do so, Falvine just happens to pick a guy that not only could fill a need no one else has shown an ability to fill but also a guy with history (and presumably relationships) with this team and it’s players. He’s already been a teammate of Rogers, May and Duffey, for example.

 

I’m not a big believer in coincidence.

[launchingthrees]

 

If you are playing someone with a left handed starter Schoop is a must.

 

Schoop has a better OPS vs RHP than LHP over his career. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

O’Rourke doesn’t fit the description of a “filler” player because he’s a niche player. 

I don't think having a platoon split and being a "filler" player are necessarily mutually exclusive.

 

O'Rourke is 31 year old, playing on minor league contracts the past 2 seasons, with 2 MLB appearances since 2016, who was DFA'd and outrighted just a couple months ago (in addition to another DFA and outright back in 2016).

 

I think he has a chance to be a MLB LOOGY in September with expanded rosters, but the odds are long that he will be on a postseason roster. Chiefly, while he has intriguing career numbers vs LHB, would you really trust him against quality LHB in the playoffs? The Mets cut him, and every other MLB team passed on claiming him even though he has options remaining. Does that sound like a trusted option vs LHB?

 

He's barely pitched in MLB in 3 years, and probably won't be able to face more than a handful of good hitters as a LOOGY in a September audition. How many playoff-quality LHB will we even see in September? I guess we'll get 3 games vs Soto and the Nationals, and 3 vs Devers/Benintendi and the Red Sox, and that's about it. I don't think there's a single LHB on the Tigers, Royals, White Sox, or even Indians who would provide much feedback on whether O'Rourke is a playoff-ready option, even as a very strict LOOGY.

 

And once he's on a postseason roster, there's no reversing it unless we make up a phantom injury, no adjustments possible after a short start or extra inning game -- once we add him, we're stuck with him for the whole series. Given our staff, I'm guessing we'd rather have more versatile guys like Littell, over a strict/questionable LOOGY.

[yarnivek1972]

I don't think having a platoon split and being a "filler" player are necessarily mutually exclusive.

 

O'Rourke is 31 year old, playing on minor league contracts the past 2 seasons, with 2 MLB appearances since 2016, who was DFA'd and outrighted just a couple months ago (in addition to another DFA and outright back in 2016).

 

I think he has a chance to be a MLB LOOGY in September with expanded rosters, but the odds are long that he will be on a postseason roster. Chiefly, while he has intriguing career numbers vs LHB, would you really trust him against quality LHB in the playoffs? The Mets cut him, and every other MLB team passed on claiming him even though he has options remaining. Does that sound like a trusted option vs LHB?

 

He's barely pitched in MLB in 3 years, and probably won't be able to face more than a handful of good hitters as a LOOGY in a September audition. How many playoff-quality LHB will we even see in September? I guess we'll get 3 games vs Soto and the Nationals, and 3 vs Devers/Benintendi and the Red Sox, and that's about it. I don't think there's a single LHB on the Tigers, Royals, White Sox, or even Indians who would provide much feedback on whether O'Rourke is a playoff-ready option, even as a very strict LOOGY.

 

And once he's on a postseason roster, there's no reversing it unless we make up a phantom injury, no adjustments possible after a short start or extra inning game -- once we add him, we're stuck with him for the whole series. Given our staff, I'm guessing we'd rather have more versatile guys like Littell, over a strict/questionable LOOGY.

He obviously wouldn’t be on the postseason roster if he performs poorly in September. As to the trust issue, are you suggesting that you would trust Graterol or Alcala, who have never gotten any MLB hitters out ahead of O’Rourke? Because an awful lot of posters seem more than willing to plug them in already. There really aren’t many other candidates other than guys already up or that have been up.

 

As to the issue of not having much recent MLB exposure, I think it could help him. Could be that guys he would be asked to get haven’t seen him. Also, he’s a difficult guy to carry for a full season because he is a loogy.

 

Finally, if Matt Olson or Michael Brantley comes to the plate in the 6th inning in a critical spot, who do I want to face him? My answer is going to be Ryan O’Rourke over everyone on the Twins staff other than Taylor Rogers.