Noah Syndergaard

[Twodogs]

Just saw the deal and yuck. Imagine we could have easily beat that offer.

That's what I thought too? Woods Richardson has a 4.25 era in A ball??

[AZTwin]

That's what I thought too? Woods Richardson has a 4.25 era in A ball??

He has higher upside than the other guy too lol. Other guy is an older pitcher trending the wrong way

[Twodogs]

Maybe the Mets want someone to replace a few minor league pitchers for Syndergaard??? Or Wheeler might be available also?

[AZTwin]

Maybe the Mets want someone to replace a few minor league pitchers for Syndergaard??? Or Wheeler might be available also?

True. Maybe it takes away some of the need for pitching and are focusing more on some of the bats in our system

[Mr. Brooks]

From what I've seen, Balazovic and Graterol are much more highly regarded prospects than the ones the Mets traded. Why would they (one or both) have been the "minimum" when the Mets traded less?

Balazovic and the Mets AAA pitcher that was traded have identical grades on MLB pipeline, as well as fangraphs.

[Mr. Brooks]

The 55 is struggling mightily in AAA and will be 25 years old all year next season. Soft tosser that doesn’t particularly project well. Back end guy like Thorpe. The other guy is a long ways away and a lottery ticket. Duran is a little further along which is why I think that package would have been more appealing

I said to "definitively" beat their offer.

 

While your offer may very well be a better offer in the eyes of the Jays, I don't think we can objectively say that it definitively is. Whereas I think we can if it's Graterol or Balazovic.

[Otto von Ballpark]

From what I've seen, Balazovic and Graterol are much more highly regarded prospects than the ones the Mets traded. Why would they (one or both) have been the "minimum" when the Mets traded less?

The Twins don't have many at that grade.

 

The two Mets guys are 45 FV at Fangraphs.

 

The only Twins pitchers meeting that are Balazovic (45), Duran (50), and Graterol (50).

 

Especially given that Graterol has been hurt and none of the 3 are as close as one of the Mets guys, I think it's reasonable to assume it could take 2 of those 3 to definitively beat the Mets offer. Obviously the Jays aren't Fangraphs, but we can't just assume they'd like 40 FV Thorpe better than what they got either.

[Danchat]

I'm shocked no other competing team in the league outbid what the Mets gave the Blue Jays... 

 

The Mets were the only team to make this offseason interesting, and now they appear to be shaking things up during the trade deadline. Let's see if a team is willing to overpay for Syndergaard, which is what I think they're doing... but it's hard to tell what they're thinking.

[wyowib]

 

Balazovic and the Mets AAA pitcher that was traded have identical grades on MLB pipeline, as well as fangraphs.

But MLB pipeline also ranks both Graterol and Balazovic in their top 100, while neither of the Mets prospects are ranked.  Subjectively, rankers (non Twins fans) seem to regard these 2 higher than the ex-Mets prospects.  

[AZTwin]

If Mets are serious about competing in 2020 then an updated offer to them would be something like:

 

 

Pick 5 from:

Alex Kiriloff

Fernando Romero

Luke Raley

Nick Gordon

Jaylin Davis

Lewis Thorpe

Kohl Stewart

Devin Smeltzer

Zander Wiel

Griffin Jax

Alcala

Charlie Barnes

Edwar Colina

Bryan Sammons

Travis Blakenhorn

Blayne Enlow

 

 

Mets send:

 

1) Noah Synardgaard

2) Lugo or Diaz (Twins pick)

[Twodogs]

 

If Mets are serious about competing in 2020 then an updated offer to them would be something like:


Pick 5 from:
Alex Kiriloff
Fernando Romero
Luke Raley
Nick Gordon
Jaylin Davis
Lewis Thorpe
Kohl Stewart
Devin Smeltzer
Zander Wiel
Griffin Jax
Alcala
Charlie Barnes
Edwar Colina
Griffin Jax
Bryan Sammons
Travis Blakenhorn
Blayne Enlow


Mets send:

1) Noah Synardgaard
2) Lugo or Diaz (Twins pick)

Shoot, I'd do that for sure!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Shoot, I'd do that for sure!

Yeah, that deal's light. Initially, the poster didn't have the Mets including the reliever, at which point I thought the deal seemed heavy for Syndergaard alone (it's not hard to loot Kirilloff and four pretty promising pitchers out of that pile).

[AZTwin]

I don’t know how light it is. That’s 5 guys that would be in the top 20-25 in the Mets organization. And it wasn’t too long ago that Romero was top 5 in Twins. If he still qualified as a prospect he would still be top 10 in twins organization. If you went purely be rankings, you could get 5 in the top 15 (assuming Romero is in top 15 in adjusted rankings) in a deep Twins system including the #16 prospect in all of baseball

[AlwaysinModeration]

If Mets are serious about competing in 2020 then an updated offer to them would be something like:

 

 

Pick 5 from:

Alex Kiriloff

Fernando Romero

Luke Raley

Nick Gordon

Jaylin Davis

Lewis Thorpe

Kohl Stewart

Devin Smeltzer

Zander Wiel

Griffin Jax

Alcala

Charlie Barnes

Edwar Colina

Bryan Sammons

Travis Blakenhorn

Blayne Enlow

 

 

Mets send:

 

1) Noah Synardgaard

2) Lugo or Diaz (Twins pick)

So that deal would probably be something like:

 

Kiriloff, Gordon, Enlow, Romero and Thorpe

 

Honestly, in light of the Stroman return, I almost feel like that is too much.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don’t know how light it is. That’s 5 guys that would be in the top 20-25 in the Mets organization. And it wasn’t too long ago that Romero was top 5 in Twins. If he still qualified as a prospect he would still be top 10 in twins organization. If you went purely be rankings, you could get 5 in the top 15 (assuming Romero is in top 15 in adjusted rankings) in a deep Twins system including the #16 prospect in all of baseball

But for Syndergaard alone, they should be able to get Kirilloff plus at least 2-3 of the other names, from us or from someone else.

 

Why would they want to tack on a good reliever for 1-2 more guys? The Mets are still trying to win in 2020, and Stroman doesn't replace a lost reliever too.

[Mr. Brooks]

But MLB pipeline also ranks both Graterol and Balazovic in their top 100, while neither of the Mets prospects are ranked. Subjectively, rankers (non Twins fans) seem to regard these 2 higher than the ex-Mets prospects.

There is likely no difference between a guy ranked in the 90's, and one who just missed the top 100, assuming they are both given an identical grade.

At that point, the ranker is just choosing a few of his/her personal favorites to round out the top 100. The Blue Jays could agree, and have Balazovic slightly ahead, but they could just as likely have them flipped.

[AZTwin]

But for Syndergaard alone, they should be able to get Kirilloff plus at least 2-3 of the other names, from us or from someone else.

 

Why would they want to tack on a good reliever for 1-2 more guys? The Mets are still trying to win in 2020, and Stroman doesn't replace a lost reliever too.

Romero and Thorpe could be relievers and are major league ready. Id cautiously add Littel to the list to pick from if they wanted more reliever replacement. Plus you are getting bats close to the majors (including high upside one). And they’d also get a high upside pitcher in the lower minors. Relievers aren’t THAT expensive. Remember who we get for Presley last year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So that deal would probably be something like:

 

Kiriloff, Gordon, Enlow, Romero and Thorpe

 

Honestly, in light of the Stroman return, I almost feel like that is too much.

2.5 years of a younger and arguably better (fWAR) Syndergaard, plus a controllable relief ace. You're getting a lot more than 1.5 years of Stroman. I wouldn't call that package "too much" to give up. (If anything, I think it's a little light on the Twins side to warrant including the reliever.)

[AZTwin]

2.5 years of a younger and arguably better (fWAR) Syndergaard, plus a controllable relief ace. You're getting a lot more than 1.5 years of Stroman. I wouldn't call that package "too much" to give up. (If anything, I think it's a little light on the Twins side to warrant including the reliever.)

I wouldn’t be against pick 6 but then we are getting into way overpaying. Thor’s stats aren’t that good and he has injury issues. Diaz is struggling this year as well. I don’t know why posters here overestimate other teams assets

[Otto von Ballpark]

Romero and Thorpe could be relievers and are major league ready. Id cautiously add Littel to the list to pick from if they wanted more reliever replacement. Plus you are getting bats close to the majors (including high upside one). And they’d also get a high upside pitcher in the lower minors

There is plenty of evidence that Romero is not a MLB ready reliever. Much less one that could offset a hopeful contender losing Diaz or Lugo for 2020.

 

And Thorpe and Littell likewise seem too early to starting pimping their trade value. If they are that good, the Twins aren't loading them up to get Diaz or Lugo.

 

Kirilloff is a potential bat but also a corner player -- the Mets have a 1B and some corner OF already. And the Mets have nowhere to play Gordon, even if he is ready (probably not, would need at least a year to adjust).

 

And high upside pitchers in the Twins lower minors is Duran and Balazovic. After that, the others are lotto tickets -- not valueless, but not something a contending team dumps Diaz or Lugo for.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wouldn’t be against pick 6 but then we are getting into way overpaying. Thor’s stats aren’t that good and he has injury issues. Diaz is struggling this year as well. I don’t know why posters here overestimate other teams assets

If you only want to buy low on Syndergaard and Diaz, the Mets probably don't sell them.

[AZTwin]

There is plenty of evidence that Romero is not a MLB ready reliever. Much less one that could offset a hopeful contender losing Diaz or Lugo for 2020.

 

And Thorpe and Littell likewise seem too early to starting pimping their trade value. If they are that good, the Twins aren't loading them up to get Diaz or Lugo.

 

Kirilloff is a potential bat but also a corner player -- the Mets have a 1B and some corner OF already. And the Mets have nowhere to play Gordon, even if he is ready (probably not, would need at least a year to adjust).

 

And high upside pitchers in the Twins lower minors is Duran and Balazovic. After that, the others are lotto tickets -- not valueless, but not something a contending team dumps Diaz or Lugo for.

Again you are vastly overestimating their players and vastly underestimating ours. Look at what relievers go for. Last year we gave up Pressly for Alcala and Celestino. If I said those guys for Diaz, you’d laugh with your logic even though Pressly was a much better player than what Diaz is currently.

[AZTwin]

If you only want to buy low on Syndergaard and Diaz, the Mets probably don't sell them.

I am buying low?! Lol good grief man. I included 5 of our top 15 prospects. That is putting a premium on what they are worth

[Otto von Ballpark]

Again you are vastly overestimating their players and vastly underestimating ours. Look at what relievers go for. Last year we gave up Pressly for Alcala and Celestino. If I said those guys for Diaz, you’d laugh with your logic even though Pressly was a much better player than what Diaz is currently.

You may want to buy Diaz for a price based on his 2019 ERA. But it makes no sense for the Mets to sell Diaz for a price based on his 2019 ERA.

 

Diaz has a much, much better track record than Pressly and significantly more control too. (And there aren't many good trade comps for Pressly, which suggests the Astros did pretty well.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am buying low?! Lol good grief man. I included 5 of our top 15 prospects. That is putting a premium on what they are worth

Most of those guys you list could be ranked 35th as well as 15th depending on the preferences of the evaluator.

 

You're putting 5 of our consensus top 6 off limits too (and only offering a corner guy having a down year with wrist issues from that top 6). That tells me you're not really trying to give them "5 of our top 15" but rather a bunch of guys that someone, somewhere might rank around 15, if they happen to like that guy. (Raley?)

[AZTwin]

You may want to buy Diaz for a price based on his 2019 ERA. But it makes no sense for the Mets to sell Diaz for a price based on his 2019 ERA.

 

Diaz has a much, much better track record than Pressly and significantly more control too. (And there aren't many good trade comps for Pressly, which suggests the Astros did pretty well.)

well if the Mets aren’t willing to take into account Diaz 2019 season at all then I agree a deal for him shouldn’t be done. Lugo would still be fine and I would say the pick 5 is still a great offer

[AZTwin]

Most of those guys you list could be ranked 35th as well as 15th depending on the preferences of the evaluator.

 

You're putting 5 of our consensus top 6 off limits too (and only offering a corner guy having a down year with wrist issues from that top 6). That tells me you're not really trying to give them "5 of our top 15" but rather a bunch of guys that someone, somewhere might rank around 15, if they happen to like that guy. (Raley?)

It was going off the Assumption that they want to compete next year and want major league ready players. I’d be more than happy to offer them Kiriloff, Graterol and say... Alcala. It’s all about making it even

[wyowib]

 

I wouldn’t be against pick 6 but then we are getting into way overpaying. Thor’s stats aren’t that good and he has injury issues. Diaz is struggling this year as well. I don’t know why posters here overestimate other teams assets

"I don’t know why posters here overestimate other teams assets".  THIS!; combined with "while underestimating the Twins assets" (when compared to the rest of the league)

[AZTwin]

"I don’t know why posters here overestimate other teams assets". THIS!; combined with "while underestimating the Twins assets" (when compared to the rest of the league)

Agreed. I’d argue Stroman is a better pitcher then Thor but has slightly less value due to team control and *potential* upside albeit more risk to completely flame out. It’s not like Stroman cost an arm and a leg. Kirilloff is a top 20 prospect in baseball for a reason. To simply say he’s a corner spot is laughable

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But for Syndergaard alone, they should be able to get Kirilloff plus at least 2-3 of the other names, from us or from someone else.

Why would they want to tack on a good reliever for 1-2 more guys? The Mets are still trying to win in 2020, and Stroman doesn't replace a lost reliever too.

Yep. A little heavy for Syndergaard alone, considerably too light if you tack on a reliever.