Article: Twins Daily 2019 Midseason Top 40 Prospects: Recap

[tvagle]

 

Yeah this... This system is scary deep.. It's also why I'm looking forward to the deadline. The team broke out at the right time b/c there's going to be a lot of guys needing to hit the 40 man over the next season or two... May as well trade some of them and get some upgrades on the 25 man. 

 

[nicksaviking]

Kirilloff and Lewis are both heating up. Their early season struggles may have timed out well after all. If they end up hitting in the 2nd half more similarly to what they did last year, they'll probably get their one-level promotion, which based on how the MLB team is rostered, was probably going to be the case even had they been hitting well in the 1st half as well.

 

Which means less frustration from us about not seeing them in the majors already, since it was never going to happen anyway!

[bird]

 

First, thank you all for the time and thought you put into this list.

 

Yes, there is zero doubt that the Twins have the best A+ and below minor league system.  Arguably, the best AA and below system.

 

But, I think, and this very moment, we are looking at the apex of the system for the foreseeable future.  I think we all expect to lose 2 or 3 top prospects between now nd July 31st.  And (hopefully) The Twins will not have high draft picks over the next few years.

 

So, let's put this Top 30 in the vault.

 

 

I'm very much concerned that you're correct. One of the things that concerns me is the abysmal record in the DSL. They have concentrated investments there, in Javier and Urbina, maybe hoping others will slip past the competition. But Im wondering, like with everything else, the playing field doesn't let one team out-scout or out-hustle like it used to.

 

I theorize that the only real chance one team has to be sustainably superior to anyone else now wrests in an ability to be an opportunistic horse-trader.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Oh man I remember really think Alexander Smit would be special. And was intrigued by Juan Portes. A few of the other guys I don’t remember. Brings me back though

 

I love looking back at that kind of stuff. I did a few Q&As with Alex Smit when he was in the low minors. He was one of the first from The Netherlands. 

 

And Portes was an interesting prospect. He could hit. No position, but he could hit. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Are we really going to ignore the fact that Jaylin Davis might be the best OF prospect among the group?

 

Man is he crushing the ball in Rochester!! Very impressive!

[jz7233]

Cody Stashak and Wynston Sawyer are both pretty good. 

Edited July 15, 2019 by jz7233

[twins1095]

For all of the flak that Nick Gordon gets for his production especially compared to other middle infielders in the system and his draft spot his production this season as a 23 year old in AAA has actually been pretty solid:

 

Current numbers projected over 162 game sample:

 

.291/.335/.790

 

124 runs -  65 2Bs - 9 3Bs - 9 HRs (81 total XBHs) - 97 RBIs - 35 SBs

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

If he keeps this up, with the way Baldelli likes to rest players and projecting some regression for Arraez, I'd be really interested in sort of platooning Gordon and Arraez in the MLB and having the main MI rotation be Polanco/Gordon/Arraez.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Are we really going to ignore the fact that Jaylin Davis might be the best OF prospect among the group?

 

He sure caught my attention this season, especially after bumping up to AAA. What changed? He has never shown this kind of offensive production prior to this year. We need another RH OFer. Is this an opportunity to sell high or his he a guy that should be a priority to keep. I would love to know if there is something specific that clicked and what the Twin's brass believes is his future.

Edited July 15, 2019 by Major League Ready

[Steve Lein]

 

He sure caught my attention this season, especially after bumping up to AAA. What changed? He has never shown this kind of offensive production prior to this year. We need another RH OFer. Is this an opportunity to sell high or his he a guy that should be a priority to keep. I would love to know if there is something specific that clicked and what the Twin's brass believes is his future.

 

I'm glad you asked :

 

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/wahoos-weigh-in-617-six-all-stars-for-pensacola-r7962

[Mr. Brooks]

For all of the flak that Nick Gordon gets for his production especially compared to other middle infielders in the system and his draft spot his production this season as a 23 year old in AAA has actually been pretty solid:

 

Current numbers projected over 162 game sample:

 

.291/.335/.790

 

124 runs - 65 2Bs - 9 3Bs - 9 HRs (81 total XBHs) - 97 RBIs - 35 SBs

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

If he keeps this up, with the way Baldelli likes to rest players and projecting some regression for Arraez, I'd be really interested in sort of platooning Gordon and Arraez in the MLB and having the main MI rotation be Polanco/Gordon/Arraez.

His ability to put up first half numbers has never been a problem. I want to see how he does in the second half.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For all of the flak that Nick Gordon gets for his production especially compared to other middle infielders in the system and his draft spot his production this season as a 23 year old in AAA has actually been pretty solid:

 

Current numbers projected over 162 game sample:

 

.291/.335/.790

 

124 runs - 65 2Bs - 9 3Bs - 9 HRs (81 total XBHs) - 97 RBIs - 35 SBs

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

If he keeps this up, with the way Baldelli likes to rest players and projecting some regression for Arraez, I'd be really interested in sort of platooning Gordon and Arraez in the MLB and having the main MI rotation be Polanco/Gordon/Arraez.

That's not a bad line from Gordon, especially after last year, but you have to account for the IL offensive environment this year. The whole league has a .343 OBP, and a .793 OPS. (For comparison, the last time MLB non-pitchers hit that well was 2000, the original height of the sillyball era. Only at .326 and .766 this year, even with all the dingers.)

 

Fangraphs rates Gordon's performance as a 97 wRC+, so just a hair below the IL average. Again, not bad, but nothing I am too eager to see against MLB pitching either.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's not a bad line from Gordon, especially after last year, but you have to account for the IL offensive environment this year. The whole league has a .343 OBP, and a .793 OPS. (For comparison, the last time MLB non-pitchers hit that well was 2000, the original height of the sillyball era. Only at .326 and .766 this year, even with all the dingers.)

Fangraphs rates Gordon's performance as a 97 wRC+, so just a hair below the IL average. Again, not bad, but nothing I am too eager to see against MLB pitching either.

 

As a short stop......97 wrc+ in the majors is median for a SS. And for a 2B. Not saying he could do that, but if he stayed around 95, he'd be median to just worse than that for a SS, and median for a 2B (SS are hitting better than 2B this year). 

[Otto von Ballpark]

As a short stop......97 wrc+ in the majors is median for a SS. And for a 2B. Not saying he could do that, but if he stayed around 95, he'd be median to just worse than that for a SS, and median for a 2B (SS are hitting better than 2B this year).

Sure. I mean, it is pretty much league average, by definition.

[willmarmn]

Any thoughts that Cody Stashak who seems to be the most effective reliever at AAA Rochester might deserve consideration in the top 40?  Having a very good year between Pensacola and Rochester, very few walks good  WHIP.  Possibly soon with the Twins to replace Minor??  

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm glad you asked :

 

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/wahoos-weigh-in-617-six-all-stars-for-pensacola-r7962

 

Thanks Steve. I was kind of hoping it was pitch recognition. There are guys who can get by with lacl of pitch recognition at the MiLB level and then don't do so well at the MLB level. I hope he is one they refuse to let go unless its for pitching with control beyond 2019. 

[twins1095]

 

That's not a bad line from Gordon, especially after last year, but you have to account for the IL offensive environment this year. The whole league has a .343 OBP, and a .793 OPS. (For comparison, the last time MLB non-pitchers hit that well was 2000, the original height of the sillyball era. Only at .326 and .766 this year, even with all the dingers.)

Fangraphs rates Gordon's performance as a 97 wRC+, so just a hair below the IL average. Again, not bad, but nothing I am too eager to see against MLB pitching either.

 

The only counter I would have in that is that a lot of that production increase is coming from all of the HRs.  Gordon does not hit many HRs so he is disadvantaged compared to other hitters in terms of that production increase being reflected in statistics.

 

Guys who are hitting a lot of HRs who didn't before might have some question marks on how much that power will translate depending on the power profile.  I would think that guys succeeding with a line drive/gap type approach would translate pretty naturally compared to the other profile even with the ball changes and silly-ball offense going on down there.

 

Might not be true, but that's the only counter I would throw out.

[twins1095]

 

Thanks Steve. I was kind of hoping it was pitch recognition. There are guys who can get by with lacl of pitch recognition at the MiLB level and then don't do so well at the MLB level. I hope he is one they refuse to let go unless its for pitching with control beyond 2019. 

 

Not to throw rain on the parade, but his plate skills have severely regressed at AAA.  He's got a tiny walk rate and a K rate near 30%.  He's basically like Buxton in previous years in terms of his BB/K% profile.  Further, his power numbers are buoyed off a 50+% Flyball to HR ratio and his BABIP is 40-50 points higher than at any other point in his minor league career.  

 

He doesn't hit that many flyballs, strikes out a ton, doesn't walk and his power numbers are being buoyed by an unsustainable number of flyballs going over the fence and BABIP.   

 

His AA profile is better, but everything about his AAA profile screams fluke.  If we can get value for him and a team is interested, my opinion would be that we should jump at it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The only counter I would have in that is that a lot of that production increase is coming from all of the HRs. Gordon does not hit many HRs so he is disadvantaged compared to other hitters in terms of that production increase being reflected in statistics.

 

Guys who are hitting a lot of HRs who didn't before might have some question marks on how much that power will translate depending on the power profile. I would think that guys succeeding with a line drive/gap type approach would translate pretty naturally compared to the other profile even with the ball changes and silly-ball offense going on down there.

 

Might not be true, but that's the only counter I would throw out.

Yeah, it is a lot of HR, but those HR aren't hit in a vacuum. So Gordon may be getting benefits on some of his doubles too. And he may get more indirect benefits as well -- maybe he sees more pitches to hit, to square up some if those doubles to the gap, with more likely HR hitters behind him.

[twins1095]

I definitely do not disagree.  I just think it's easier for the non-power/3 true outcomes (XBH, BB, K) guys to get left out with the changes favoring that style.  It seems like Gordon has been able to keep up, at a relatively young age for AAA, and really in his first full season at AAA.  I think it's promising and suggests that he could have a role in the majors with his speed and contact skills if they play.

[Major League Ready]

 

Not to throw rain on the parade, but his plate skills have severely regressed at AAA.  He's got a tiny walk rate and a K rate near 30%.  He's basically like Buxton in previous years in terms of his BB/K% profile.  Further, his power numbers are buoyed off a 50+% Flyball to HR ratio and his BABIP is 40-50 points higher than at any other point in his minor league career.  

 

He doesn't hit that many flyballs, strikes out a ton, doesn't walk and his power numbers are being buoyed by an unsustainable number of flyballs going over the fence and BABIP.   

 

His AA profile is better, but everything about his AAA profile screams fluke.  If we can get value for him and a team is interested, my opinion would be that we should jump at it.

 

Go ahead and make it rain. Let's not forecast sunny skies if a storm is on the horizon. His numbers were good in AA but now they are incredible at AAA. His performance at lower levels did not indicate a high ceiling. I think we are all trying to figure out if he has figured something out that makes him capable of being a long-term asset at the ML level. 

[darin617]

So where did Randy Dobnak rank outside of the top 40?