Twins Showing "Strong" Interest in Bumgarner

[jz7233]

 

If the Twins really want Smith, they have more than enough resources to call San Fran and make an offer they can't refuse.

They could offer Romero, Smeltzer, Alcala, and Celestino, how does San Fran say no to that?

Romero, Cave, Gonsalves, Celestino and Gordon should be enough.

[Don Walcott]

 

Did anyone watch the SF game last night?   Madbum was dealing.   Good velo, location, pitch sequencing.   Think he finished with 9 or 10 K.   The guy can still bring it. 

I watched several innings of it. MadBum was dealing. Finished with 11 Ks in 6 innings with 2 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks.

 

He can also pinch hit, if needed.

[Tomj14]

 

Romero and Cave should be enough.

that works as well, I would rather not trade major league outfield depth and would rather throw in extra lottery tickets, but they have the goods to get him.

[jimbo92107]

MadBum is 29. ERA: 4.28. Innings pitched: 96.2. Middle rotation starter + good hitter.

Will Smith is 29. ERA: 2.01. Innings pitched: 31.1. Excellent reliever. 

 

Wouldn't sell the farm for these guys, but they can have my tractor and my chickens. And a couple hogs thrown in, plus a load of potatoes. But they can't have the barn or the silo! 

 

 

 

[jz7233]

 

that works as well, I would rather not trade major league outfield depth and would rather throw in extra lottery tickets, but they have the goods to get him.

I didn't see it's for both. I just throw in three more. Celestino, Gonsalves and Gordon. Twins have enough talent in the minor league. Those 5 should not hurt the system much. It's sad to see Gordon and Romero go though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If the Twins really want Smith, they have more than enough resources to call San Fran and make an offer they can't refuse.

They could offer Romero, Smeltzer, Alcala, and Celestino, how does San Fran say no to that?

That might not work.

 

First of all, there's 3 struggling prospects among those 4. Yes, teams can look past recent struggles to see a player's potential, etc., but you can't just pile up every prospect who is struggling in the same deal. (Likewise, the 4th player was largely a non-prospect until a recent hot streak -- if you want the Giants to overlook the recent performance, Smeltzer's value is dramatically lowered too.)

 

Second of all, this package is two 40-man guys, plus 2 more who will be Rule 5 eligible this winter. That's fairly rare too -- teams generally prefer more of a mix where possible, to get more upside from lower minors guys and to alleviate roster strain. (They might overlook that for the right package, but then we're back to my first point -- would they overlook for 3 struggling guys?)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Romero, Cave, Gonsalves, Celestino and Gordon should be enough.

Again, struggling/injured guys can't comprise that much of a package.

 

Also not four 40-man roster guys!

[Tomj14]

 

That might not work.

 

First of all, there's 3 struggling prospects among those 4. Yes, teams can look past recent struggles to see a player's potential, etc., but you can't just pile up every prospect who is struggling in the same deal. (Likewise, the 4th player was largely a non-prospect until a recent hot streak -- if you want the Giants to overlook the recent performance, Smeltzer's value is dramatically lowered too.)

 

Second of all, this package is two 40-man guys, plus 2 more who will be Rule 5 eligible this winter. That's fairly rare too -- teams generally prefer more of a mix where possible, to get more upside from lower minors guys and to alleviate roster strain. (They might overlook that for the right package, but then we're back to my first point -- would they overlook for 3 struggling guys?)

Didn't realize the second two were rule 5 eligible. In all reality Romero and Smeltzer should be enough for a relief rental, so take any other two guys in the low minors that are not eligible and make it happen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Didn't realize the second two were rule 5 eligible. In all reality Romero and Smeltzer should be enough for a relief rental, so take any other two guys in the low minors that are not eligible and make it happen.

Is it? Romero is struggling *in relief* at AAA. I guess he's in line for a fourth option year in 2020, but I'm really not sure he's enough to lead a package right now, even for a very good relief rental.

 

Your proposal could work, but it might hinge a lot on the low minors names. 

[BattleYourTailOff]

Passan now reporting that Twins and Giants haven't had talks on MadBum in weeks. Says we're more focused on Will Smith at the moment.

 

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1143882764707651586

So did Nightengale just pull this “interest” out of thin air? All these “strong interests” don’t seem to net a lot of actual return. I’d love for them to get Madbum

[Musk21]

The Giants fansite "Around the Foghorn" had an article a month ago regarding building a trade with the Twins. They suggested 2 separate trades for Smith and Bumgarner to maximize their value.

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1

To Twins: LHP Will Smith
To Giants: SS Wander Javier, RHP Jhoan Duran, and 1B/OF Brent Rooker

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #2

To Twins: LHP Madison Bumgarner and RHP Nick Vincent
To Giants: RHP Brusdar Graterol, 2B Yunior Severino and C Ryan Jeffers

 

Remember it is a Giants fansite, so seems extremely lofty on their part. These would decimate our farm system. Not gonna happen at those prices...

[bighat]

 

Exactly. Expecting Pineda or Perez to just go to the bull pen and NOT be liabilities the moment they step in there is foolish. We need PROVEN bull pen talent. 

 

Perez started out of the pen this year and was horrific. Then again, his starts have been horrific as well. Can't stash him in the minors, either. Twins either have to just cut him loose and let someone else pick him up for free (dangerous) or keep him and hope he turns things around (also dangerous).

 

Bumgartner is a big name. He'll cost more than he's worth, without a doubt. However, the Twins are gonig to have go ahead and overpay for him, Smith, and others in order to make a dent in the playoffs. They made their own bed by not upgrading this situation over the winter, they'll have to lie in it.

 

All complaining aside, it's a good thing we're having this problem instead of say, being in a much worse situation (ie: teams like the Angels probably can't decide whether to buy or sell, and teams like Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, Miami, and many others saw their season disappear months ago).

[BattleYourTailOff]

The Giants fansite "Around the Foghorn" had an article a month ago regarding building a trade with the Twins. They suggested 2 separate trades for Smith and Bumgarner to maximize their value.

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1

To Twins: LHP Will Smith

To Giants: SS Wander Javier, RHP Jhoan Duran, and 1B/OF Brent Rooker

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #2

To Twins: LHP Madison Bumgarner and RHP Nick Vincent

To Giants: RHP Brusdar Graterol, 2B Yunior Severino and C Ryan Jeffers

 

Remember it is a Giants fansite, so seems extremely lofty on their part. These would decimate our farm system. Not gonna happen at those prices...

Call me insane but I’d do proposal 2. I wouldn’t do Duran, even for Madbum (all those for only Smith is insane lol) but would part with Graterol.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Giants fansite "Around the Foghorn" had an article a month ago regarding building a trade with the Twins. They suggested 2 separate trades for Smith and Bumgarner to maximize their value.

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1

To Twins: LHP Will Smith
To Giants: SS Wander Javier, RHP Jhoan Duran, and 1B/OF Brent Rooker

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #2

To Twins: LHP Madison Bumgarner and RHP Nick Vincent
To Giants: RHP Brusdar Graterol, 2B Yunior Severino and C Ryan Jeffers

 

Remember it is a Giants fansite, so seems extremely lofty on their part. These would decimate our farm system. Not gonna happen at those prices...

I mentioned in the other thread that, while those prices seem high, it's probably close to what the Giants are asking for in negotiations, right now. (And definitely a month ago!)

 

They'll almost certainly settle for less by the end of July, but they aren't settling on Cave and Romero type packages right now.

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins are #1 in the AL and #2 in MLB in starting pitcher fWAR. I wouldn't give up any high-level prospects for this version of Bumgarner.

 

One positive is that the Giants organization is almost unbelievably lacking in talent at all levels. They may be open to lower-ceiling guys if they are MLB ready or close to it (guys like Rooker, Smeltzer, etc.).

[Vanimal46]

The Giants fansite "Around the Foghorn" had an article a month ago regarding building a trade with the Twins. They suggested 2 separate trades for Smith and Bumgarner to maximize their value.

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1

To Twins: LHP Will Smith

To Giants: SS Wander Javier, RHP Jhoan Duran, and 1B/OF Brent Rooker

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #2

To Twins: LHP Madison Bumgarner and RHP Nick Vincent

To Giants: RHP Brusdar Graterol, 2B Yunior Severino and C Ryan Jeffers

 

Remember it is a Giants fansite, so seems extremely lofty on their part. These would decimate our farm system. Not gonna happen at those prices...

I don't think they know how maximizing value works... Separating the transactions will fetch them a higher quantity of players. Combining them together will fetch a higher quality headliner.

[Tomj14]

 

Is it? Romero is struggling *in relief* at AAA. I guess he's in line for a fourth option year in 2020, but I'm really not sure he's enough to lead a package right now, even for a very good relief rental.

 

Your proposal could work, but it might hinge a lot on the low minors names. 

My proposal is just for Smith. If the Giants want more than my offer the Twins got robbed on the Pressly trade. Since my offer included the two guys they got for Pressly, and two players that have pitched in the major leagues and while Romero has struggled he has shown if he throws strikes he has the stuff to pitch in the majors. On top of Smith is a rental and Pressly wasn't.

[Tomj14]

 

The Giants fansite "Around the Foghorn" had an article a month ago regarding building a trade with the Twins. They suggested 2 separate trades for Smith and Bumgarner to maximize their value.

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1

To Twins: LHP Will Smith
To Giants: SS Wander Javier, RHP Jhoan Duran, and 1B/OF Brent Rooker

 

The Twins get Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino for Ryan Pressly (non-rental relief pitcher) and the Twins have to give up Wander Javier, Jhoan Duran, 1B/OF Brent Rooker for a rental relief pitcher?

 

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

The Twins get Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino for Ryan Pressly (non-rental relief pitcher) and the Twins have to give up Wander Javier, Jhoan Duran, 1B/OF Brent Rooker for a rental relief pitcher?

 

Yeah, that trade proposal is absolutely insane.

[Tyler Roepke]

Forget Madbum and forget Smith if he's costly. Go after Tony Watson. He should be affordable and he's quietly been a great lefty setup man out of the SF pen the last couple of years. If the Twins can win the division with the starting staff they have (which I think they can) they only need three starters in the playoffs. That can be Berrios, Odo, and whoever is pitching better at the time between Pineda or Gibson. Our relief really ins't that bad. The league RP ERA is 4.50 right now. Look a Rodgers' ERA, look at Harpers', May has gotten better, and maybe he can improve more. Littel sure looked like he figured it out against Boston a week ago and I've heard they've been working on changing some things. Obviously we need to see more from him. Same can be said about Stewart. Duff man has been looking filthy as of late. Very strange year for relief pitching, Liam Hendricks might be the best one this season!

[lukeduke1980]

 

The Twins get Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino for Ryan Pressly (non-rental relief pitcher) and the Twins have to give up Wander Javier, Jhoan Duran, 1B/OF Brent Rooker for a rental relief pitcher?

How about one of Wander Javier, Jhoan Duran, OR Brent Rooker for Smith?  Still seems high but might be what is needed.  

[Tomj14]

 

How about one of Wander Javier, Jhoan Duran, OR Brent Rooker for Smith?  Still seems high but might be what is needed.  

agreed, I think Javier and Duran should only be used for a controllable asset, Rooker I am more open to trading.

[Cody Pirkl]

This move is based a lot on the price in terms of whether I'd be excited or not. MadBum's name seems to outvalue his recent performance. There aren't many numbers out there that suggest that he's better than Kyle Gibson in 2019, and I don't think that we would be willing to sell the farm for a few months of another Kyle Gibson. That being said, I think the front office is smart enough to turn down a deal and let somebody else pony up if SF's asking price is too high. If we do make this trade, I think the odds are very high that we also end up with Will Smith, Tony Watson, or Sam Dyson as well. It'll be interesting to see the players included if we can pull something off.

[tboltz34]

I’d agree that it’s going to take more than Romero + change. But who says no to MadBum and Smith for Rooker, Enlow, Jeffers, and Gordon (or Arraez)?

 

The twins would be dealing from positions of strength and hopefully upgrade three positions at the MLB level if Pérez (or Pineda) can make a smooth transition to the pen.

 

I’d probably be willing to throw in a little more come trade deadline but I don’t think I could stomach sending Graterol or Duran (defiantly not both) as these are two guys with front of the rotation potential, with 6 years of control, for two rentals.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My proposal is just for Smith. If the Giants want more than my offer the Twins got robbed on the Pressly trade. Since my offer included the two guys they got for Pressly, and two players that have pitched in the major leagues and while Romero has struggled he has shown if he throws strikes he has the stuff to pitch in the majors. On top of Smith is a rental and Pressly wasn't.

Well, there is a strong argument that we took too little in return for Pressly.

 

Also, value isn't static. The two guys we got for Pressly have both seen their value trend downward since the trade (not dramatically, but enough, especially as they are closer to requiring Rule 5 protection). And no matter how you slice it, Romero's value has been trending downward in 2019.

 

You can spin that as "getting 3 prospects instead of 1-2" but I'm not sure the Giants would see it that way, and I'm not sure that Smeltzer is enough to compensate either. 1-2 players performing well / trending upward might be more valuable to them than 3 scuffling ones.

 

If I'm the Giants, and you offer those 4 players, I'd probably be tempted, but I may not take it quite yet. I'd probably try to leverage it into a better player / mix of players from another team.

[jz7233]

 

That might not work.

 

First of all, there's 3 struggling prospects among those 4. Yes, teams can look past recent struggles to see a player's potential, etc., but you can't just pile up every prospect who is struggling in the same deal. (Likewise, the 4th player was largely a non-prospect until a recent hot streak -- if you want the Giants to overlook the recent performance, Smeltzer's value is dramatically lowered too.)

 

Second of all, this package is two 40-man guys, plus 2 more who will be Rule 5 eligible this winter. That's fairly rare too -- teams generally prefer more of a mix where possible, to get more upside from lower minors guys and to alleviate roster strain. (They might overlook that for the right package, but then we're back to my first point -- would they overlook for 3 struggling guys?)

Romero and Alcala both have the potential to be at least middle of the rotation starters. Smeltzer may not have their ceiling. He can still pitch effectively in the major as he showed earlier. Celestino can be a good defensive outfielder. If those are not enough, they can always throw in Gonsalves and Cave.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Romero and Alcala both have the potential to be at least middle of the rotation starters. Smeltzer may not have their ceiling. He can still pitch effectively in the major as he showed earlier. Celestino can be a good defensive outfielder. If those are not enough, they can always throw in Gonsalves and Cave.

Again, you can't just pill up 3-5 injured/scuffling prospects (especially not 40-man ones). You will find little precedent for that - it's not how trades work. Teams generally prefer quality over quantity.

 

Not that these guys are valueless, but you can't build a package consisting exclusively of them (at least probably not with a low upside guy like Smeltzer as the one non-scuffling/injured sweetener).

[jz7233]

 

The Giants fansite "Around the Foghorn" had an article a month ago regarding building a trade with the Twins. They suggested 2 separate trades for Smith and Bumgarner to maximize their value.

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1

To Twins: LHP Will Smith
To Giants: SS Wander Javier, RHP Jhoan Duran, and 1B/OF Brent Rooker

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #2

To Twins: LHP Madison Bumgarner and RHP Nick Vincent
To Giants: RHP Brusdar Graterol, 2B Yunior Severino and C Ryan Jeffers

 

Remember it is a Giants fansite, so seems extremely lofty on their part. These would decimate our farm system. Not gonna happen at those prices...

Absolutely NO to proposal #2.

MadBum is a rental at most. He is not doing so well this season.

Gordon, Thorpe and Cave should be enough for MadBum and Nick Vincent.

[Mike Sixel]

When was the last time a leak like this turned out to happen? They've shown strong interest a lot, but I can't recall one of these rumors of a big deal actually happening.

 

I am betting any moves are more on the margin, than big.

[jz7233]

 

Again, you can't just pill up 3-5 injured/scuffling prospects (especially not 40-man ones). You will find little precedent for that - it's not how trades work. Teams generally prefer quality over quantity.

 

Not that these guys are valueless, but you can't build a package consisting exclusively of them (at least probably not with a low upside guy like Smeltzer as the one non-scuffling/injured sweetener).

I would not give up much for MadBum alone. I would consider those 4 are untouchable for any trade this season. Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol and Balazovic.