Trade Target: Marcus Stroman

[Vanimal46]

Stroman was mentioned in trade rumors over the winter, and voiced his displeasure with Toronto over extension discussions.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-stroman-divergent-paths-seem-headed-divorce/

 

He's rebounding nicely this season after a disappointing 2017... Averaging nearly 6 innings per start, 2.96 ERA / 3.10 FIP / 8.1 K/9 / 3.5 BB/9

 

He's 28 years old and controlled through 2020.

 

Who would you give up for Stroman?

[Blake]

 

Stroman was mentioned in trade rumors over the winter, and voiced his displeasure with Toronto over extension discussions.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-stroman-divergent-paths-seem-headed-divorce/

He's rebounding nicely this season after a disappointing 2017... Averaging nearly 6 innings per start, 2.96 ERA / 3.10 FIP / 8.1 K/9 / 3.5 BB/9

He's 28 years old and controlled through 2020.

Who would you give up for Stroman?

Don't care where he goes, because he seems to like giving up home runs to the Twins.....

[DiscGolfer]

He didn't look very good in his last start

[Tomj14]

I would say it could start with anybody in the minors not named Royce, Alex or Brusdar.

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

Stroman was mentioned in trade rumors over the winter, and voiced his displeasure with Toronto over extension discussions.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-stroman-divergent-paths-seem-headed-divorce/

He's rebounding nicely this season after a disappointing 2017... Averaging nearly 6 innings per start, 2.96 ERA / 3.10 FIP / 8.1 K/9 / 3.5 BB/9

He's 28 years old and controlled through 2020.

Who would you give up for Stroman?

Pressly?

 

I'll see myself out.

[MNT1996]

 

I would say it could start with anybody in the minors not named Royce, Alex or Brusdar.

 

I think Royce should be on the table. Polanco has looked great at short and should be the Twins SS for a good while. Royce could be used to pull a great acquisition. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Gordon?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Gordon?

 

And? Because that's not close to enough.

 

I'd give up any one player. If they want more than 1 player, I'd exclude Lewis and Kiriloff, and they can have any two players. If they want more than 2, then whomever the Twins think is their best SP prospect is now off the list.

 

 

[cmoss84]

Gordon/Gonsalves (that's probably not enough either)

[markos]

Taking a SWAG based on ZIPS and Fangraphs research on asset value:

 

Stroman is projected for 2.0 WAR for the rest of this year, plus another 2.3 for next season. So 4.3 total. Roughly $9.5M/WAR, so ~$40M worth of total value. He is getting paid $6.5M this year. Maybe $10M next year. So $16.5M total cost.

 

Surplus value equal to ~$20M-$25M. Based on various research, prospects in the 50-100 range are valued between $20M-$30M.

 

So I would say Larnach or Graterol would be fair.

 

Quick edit: Prospect rankings are rather fluid things. I think a decent case can be made that Rortvedt and Balazovic deserve top-100 consideration. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Gordon/Gonsalves (that's probably not enough either)

 

Not close. Not even a little close.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Taking a SWAG based on ZIPS and Fangraphs research on asset value:

 

Stroman is projected for 2.0 WAR for the rest of this year, plus another 2.3 for next season. So 4.3 total. Roughly $9.5M/WAR, so ~$40M worth of total value. He is getting paid $6.5M this year. Maybe $10M next year. So $16.5M total cost.

 

Surplus value equal to ~$20M-$25M. Based on various research, prospects in the 50-100 range are valued between $20M-$30M.

 

So I would say Larnach or Graterol would be fair.

 

Good job. Based on this, I'd exclude Lewis and Kiriloff off the bat, then start the negotiations. I'd rather have Stroman than Gaterol. So, Gaterol and Gordon and a throw in should do it easily. Though that might be a slight overpay.

[cmoss84]

 

Taking a SWAG based on ZIPS and Fangraphs research on asset value:

 

Stroman is projected for 2.0 WAR for the rest of this year, plus another 2.3 for next season. So 4.3 total. Roughly $9.5M/WAR, so ~$40M worth of total value. He is getting paid $6.5M this year. Maybe $10M next year. So $16.5M total cost.

 

Surplus value equal to ~$20M-$25M. Based on various research, prospects in the 50-100 range are valued between $20M-$30M.

 

So I would say Larnach or Graterol would be fair.

Not sure I would give up Graterol for him. Larnach yes. 

[GP830]

 

I would say it could start with anybody in the minors not named Royce, Alex or Brusdar.

You'd protect Brusdar Johnson?

[GP830]

Honestly though:

 

Gordon, Larnach, Wade, and Stewart

 

Thoughts? Bear in mind, he doesn't seem to want to be there anymore.

[jkcarew]

 

Good job. Based on this, I'd exclude Lewis and Kiriloff off the bat, then start the negotiations. I'd rather have Stroman than Gaterol. So, Gaterol and Gordon and a throw in should do it easily. Though that might be a slight overpay.

Yeah. I think we could assume Toronto's first choices would include a top pitching prospect with a chance to show by 2020. Not sure they'd be convinced that the Twins have that, given where Romero, Gonsalves, Stewart, and Thorpe are at this point. So, I also think Graterol would have to be in play for Toronto to be interested in the Twins. How much more? I don't know...Gordon seems reasonable from our standpoint.

[Jham]

Before trading, I'd want to know the plan on extending Gibby, Perez, and Pineda. Are we still building toward upcoming seasons? is this our last best chance?

 

They will want prospects and usually salary relief.

 

Sano, and Gordon. Perez and Gordon. Jake Reed is expendable. We drafted a lefty Canadian a couple years ago early rounds coming off injury.

 

I'd also want to know about Ken Giles. Blue Jays are ahead in equity on that trade already.

[GP830]

 

I think Royce should be on the table. Polanco has looked great at short and should be the Twins SS for a good while. Royce could be used to pull a great acquisition. 

Not to say I'm against it-- but if we're giving up Royce, I want A LOT more than Stroman back. 

 

I'd establish a package, centered around Royce, and see how the Nats feel about shopping Scherzer, or Strasburg, and Doolittle. 

 

Even then, I'm still not pumped about shopping Royce. 

[Vanimal46]

Taking a SWAG based on ZIPS and Fangraphs research on asset value:

 

Stroman is projected for 2.0 WAR for the rest of this year, plus another 2.3 for next season. So 4.3 total. Roughly $9.5M/WAR, so ~$40M worth of total value. He is getting paid $6.5M this year. Maybe $10M next year. So $16.5M total cost.

 

Surplus value equal to ~$20M-$25M. Based on various research, prospects in the 50-100 range are valued between $20M-$30M.

 

So I would say Larnach or Graterol would be fair.

 

Quick edit: Prospect rankings are rather fluid things. I think a decent case can be made that Rortvedt and Balazovic deserve top-100 consideration.

Thanks for digging into it. I'm more open to giving up Graterol because of your last paragraph... Balazovic is on the rise to top 100 prospect status, and I believe in his ability to stick as a SP over Graterol.

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure I would give up Graterol for him. Larnach yes.

Odds are Gaterol is a relief pitcher. Smaller odds are he's a number four or five starter. You would not deal him for a number two or three starter, controlled for one and a half years?

[gunnarthor]

I think a package around Graterol and Larnich/Rooker + some lesser pieces could do it. Toronto has a superstar-in-the-making in Vlad. Graterol would be an obvious add to a solid rotation. Larnich, while further away, could man a corner or Rooker could replace Smoak sooner. Throw ins like Wade or Raley might be useful to Toronto while they try to get some offense out of the corner OF positions. 

[Tomj14]

 

Good job. Based on this, I'd exclude Lewis and Kiriloff off the bat, then start the negotiations. I'd rather have Stroman than Gaterol. So, Gaterol and Gordon and a throw in should do it easily. Though that might be a slight overpay.

I would do Gaterol, if the Jays do the trade right now (not in two months).

I think you idea is an overpay, but if they want him that is what you have to do and I have no problem with that.

 

[Dantes929]

 

Odds are Gaterol is a relief pitcher. Smaller odds are he's a number four or five starter. You would not deal him for a number two or three starter, controlled for one and a half years?

The reports I have read state a ceiling of #1 for Graterol.   The floor seems to be a high leverage reliever and one we presumably have control of for many years.    Meanwhile Stroman had a pretty bad year last year.   One which would have many on here calling him a number 5 or AAAA starter.    His good start this year is buoyed by a career high strikeout rate and the fact that no one hit a homer off him before last night.  He has 4 quality starts, all against teams with below average OPS+ (Oakland, Cleveland, Baltimore, Detroit)   He got rocked in his last two starts by LA (also below average) and the Twins.   Odorizzi and Lynn had very similar career numbers when we got them and no one was calling them number two or three starters.      I would take him but I wouldn't put him ahead of 4 of our guys which to me makes him a #5.    I would bet his ERA ends up closer to 5 than it does to 3 this year even given his good start.  I would not give up Graterol.   

[Mike Sixel]

 

The reports I have read state a ceiling of #1 for Graterol.   The floor seems to be a high leverage reliever and one we presumably have control of for many years.    Meanwhile Stroman had a pretty bad year last year.   One which would have many on here calling him a number 5 or AAAA starter.    His good start this year is buoyed by a career high strikeout rate and the fact that no one hit a homer off him before last night.  He has 4 quality starts, all against teams with below average OPS+ (Oakland, Cleveland, Baltimore, Detroit)   He got rocked in his last two starts by LA (also below average) and the Twins.   Odorizzi and Lynn had very similar career numbers when we got them and no one was calling them number two or three starters.      I would take him but I wouldn't put him ahead of 4 of our guys which to me makes him a #5.    I would bet his ERA ends up closer to 5 than it does to 3 this year even given his good start.  I would not give up Graterol.   

 

Of course it ends up closer to 5 than 3......is anyone expecting an ERA under 4? That would make him a legit number 2 in this run scoring era.

 

But, I get your hesitation.

 

Last year, no one wanted to deal Romero, because he had a ceiling of a number 2, and a floor of a high leverage RP. Anyone want to rethink that? The floor for guys that have never pitched in the majors is a lot lower than people want to think......

[cmoss84]

 

Odds are Gaterol is a relief pitcher. Smaller odds are he's a number four or five starter. You would not deal him for a number two or three starter, controlled for one and a half years?

Your overall statement is more than likely accurate. This is just a case where I like Graterol more than Stroman. A year and a half of Stroman doesn't do it for me. I'd rather roll the dice on Graterol, but I am definitely a gambling man. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Your overall statement is more than likely accurate. This is just a case where I like Graterol more than Stroman. A year and a half of Stroman doesn't do it for me. I'd rather roll the dice on Graterol, but I am definitely a gambling man. 

 

which is fair.....but this year counts, and they have a chance to win the division this year. Gaterol won't be here until, what, August? September? Without 2 injuries, at least? I understand liking Gaterol but everyone loved Romero last year.....and Gonsalves the year before.....

[cmoss84]

 

Of course it ends up closer to 5 than 3......is anyone expecting an ERA under 4? That would make him a legit number 2 in this run scoring era.

 

But, I get your hesitation.

 

Last year, no one wanted to deal Romero, because he had a ceiling of a number 2, and a floor of a high leverage RP. Anyone want to rethink that? The floor for guys that have never pitched in the majors is a lot lower than people want to think......

I am a "Romero needs to be a starter" guy. Just think he has a starter's mentality. He can still be a #2 or #3 but whether he receives another shot is another question. 

[cmoss84]

 

which is fair.....but this year counts, and they have a chance to win the division this year. Gaterol won't be here until, what, August? September? Without 2 injuries, at least? I understand liking Gaterol but everyone loved Romero last year.....and Gonsalves the year before.....

I'd be more than okay trading Graterol for a different pitcher. I just don't think Stroman is a guy that gets it done in the playoffs vs the powerhouse teams. Help you get there? Yes. Totally get your points though. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I'd be more than okay trading Graterol for a different pitcher. I just don't think Stroman is a guy that gets it done in the playoffs vs the powerhouse teams. Help you get there? Yes. Totally get your points though. 

I think this is fair. I'm willing to trade Graterol in a win-now trade partly b/c I think Balazovic will be a darn good starter in his own right and with the 13th pick, we could nab a fast moving college arm. But with Odorizzi, Pineda and Gibson as free agents at the end of the year and a lot of question marks about the AAA arms we have, moving Graterol for only 1.5 years of starting pitching might haunt us.

[Tomj14]

 

moving Graterol for only 1.5 years of starting pitching might haunt us.

it also to haunt the Twins if they don't do the trade and Stroman is lights out the rest of they year.

I would prefer to trade others besides Graterol, or Graterol for a better pitcher, but my guess is that those are longer odds of happening, Hey maybe Tor wants Romero and Rooker and I would do that. Don't know enough about Tor prospects to see where they are weak.