So....Time to make a call to Kimbrel?

[USAFChief]

Well it's far too early to even know if they were wrong.

The trade clearly was never intended to help us in 2019. I'm willing to see what kind of fruit this trade bears before I declare that we lost the trade.

we have a team that might contend in 2019, but is severely short of good pen options. They lost that trade no matter what happens with the lotto tickets they bought.

[Jham]

Well it's far too early to even know if they were wrong.

The trade clearly was never intended to help us in 2019. I'm willing to see what kind of fruit this trade bears before I declare that we lost the trade.

I'm not saying right or wrong either. I'm saying why it would be tough for the FO to go sign an expensive rh fireball RP right now. Separately I'm saying this team may be a Pressley away from division title or a playoff series win or more. Though pill to swallow for those who wanted Pres extended instead of traded.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Unfortunately, this thread is going to get bumped as long as Kimbrel is an FA... and when he's signed if he's doing well, and every time the pen blows a lead....  I'm really hoping it's page count doesn't get too high, but I'm not confident of that. 

 

Last night was a winnable game. Who knows if Kimbrel could have put out that fire, but it would have been nice to have him as an option. 

[USAFChief]

 

Unfortunately, this thread is going to get bumped as long as Kimbrel is an FA... and when he's signed if he's doing well, and every time the pen blows a lead....  

As it should.

[Jham]

Think of where we'd be without Hilde's reemergence. Many wanted him outrighted off the 40.

 

On the other hand, gambling on Romero being a stud was/is not the stupidest move. He could still be that guy (unlikely imo, but I get the thought).

 

On the other Hand, imagine we had traded for Brad Hand (prolly woulda taken AK). Hand, Pressley, Hilde and Rogers... that looks pretty solid.

[Mr. Brooks]

we have a team that might contend in 2019, but is severely short of good pen options. They lost that trade no matter what happens with the lotto tickets they bought.

I'd hope that they intend to try to contend in the theoretical future seasons that the prospects may contribute to as well.

Them competing now might seem more important to you than say 2023, but that doesn't make it so.

They absolutely can still win this trade. It's not 2019 or bust.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd hope that they intend to try to contend in the theoretical future seasons that the prospects may contribute to as well.
Them competing now might seem more important to you than say 2023, but that doesn't make it so.
They absolutely can still win this trade. It's not 2019 or bust.

 

Of course, last year and this year count too......so, so far, they've lost. But, we'll see as time goes ....

[h2oface]

Instead.... Duffey can be our savior.

[howieramone2]

 

How do you suggest they fix the pitching, if not Keuchel? Because I doubt there is a good, young, under control pitcher, available in trade

Keuchel is not the only pitcher left on Earth. If they go that route, they have money, players, and prospects to trade. 

[howieramone2]

 

So did the Twins screw up when they disagreed with the 29 GMs who felt that the cost and risk associated with Marwin Gonzalez could be better placed elsewhere? This isn't a good line of argument.

 

To the extent that teams have passed on Kimbrel to date, that was primarily when Kimbrel was still asking for $100 mil. And some of those teams moved on at that point to invest in other significant pitchers. 30 GMs haven't really passed on Kimbrel at 3/45. Same for Keuchel.

 

And of course, for BOS, NYY, CHC, LAD, and WAS, 3/45 would still cost more than 3/45 due to luxury tax penalties. (And NYM, HOU, PHI, and LAA would be right up against the luxury tax threshold after signing that contract, potentially putting them over at the trade deadline.)

 

Beyond that, there's also a lot of teams that Kimbrel and Keuchel don't want to sign with, regardless of their willingness to offer 3/45.

 

I know the Twins have some limitations in terms of revenue, but we also have a few competitive advantages right now.

His line of reasoning was very good. Can 30 GM"s all be wrong? Don't muddy the waters with Gonzalez. That's irrelevant to this argument. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

His line of reasoning was very good. Can 30 GM"s all be wrong? Don't muddy the waters with Gonzalez. That's irrelevant to this argument.

It's the same kind of argument. 30 GMs passed on Gonzalez before he lowered his demands too.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Keuchel is not the only pitcher left on Earth. If they go that route, they have money, players, and prospects to trade. 

 

Of course, my actual point was......there aren't good, young, under control starters available for trade....and if you don't wan't "old" pitchers, and you don't want expensive pitchers, where, exactly, should they find the 7 pitchers they need next year after Berrios?

[howieramone2]

 

Well, he's the only Sp FA left for this year, so if they are going to improve they'll need someone (or three) in the minors to be good, or to trade prospects for MLB players (which we are still waiting to happen in a big or even medium way in MN's MLB history).

 

And, next year's FA class isn't sparkling, so I assume we'll just have the same conversation again next year when they don't spend on pitching.

No free agency class has been sparkling for years and of course we will be having the same conversation next year. Just because you didn't like trades we've made in the past doesn't mean we won't make trades in the future. Odorizzi was a good trade. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

No free agency class has been sparkling for years and of course we will be having the same conversation next year. Just because you didn't like trades we've made in the past doesn't mean we won't make trades in the future. Odorizzi was a good trade. 

 

Not good enough to be a real difference maker.....acquiring number 4/5 starters in trade isn't taking this team to the playoffs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Of course, my actual point was......there aren't good, young, under control starters available for trade....and if you don't wan't "old" pitchers, and you don't want expensive pitchers, where, exactly, should they find the 7 pitchers they need next year after Berrios?

I think you just answered the question “Why has this front office traded so many players over the last couple of deadlines?”

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think you just answered the question “Why has this front office traded so many players over the last couple of deadlines?”

 

7 pitchers from the minors? I hope that is not the actual plan.

[howieramone2]

 

All fair, but I bet he's better than the guy they did sign.

That's irrelevant. Perez is a placeholder at a very modest cost. If one of our Rochester arms shines, he'll be DFA. Same is true for Parker. The new regime is all about flexibility. They know they will never be able to pull off a heist like they did in the Hughes deal, where they got 7.25M for the 73th pick in the 2019 draft.

[howieramone2]

 

What would you give up to get Pressley back? Never should have traded him. Find it unlikely the FO will pay way more for Kimbrel when they just traded Pressley. This way, it's not so obvious they screwed up.

The prospects they got for a little over one year of Pressly were too good to pass up. That's called selling high. They never would have extended a reliever and Pressly is my odds on favorite to regress this year. It's going to take a few years, but we will win that trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 pitchers from the minors? I hope that is not the actual plan.

No, of course not. But how you build a staff is from within.

 

It’s a long season but I think they keep a pitcher, probably Pineda. Maybe Gibson though.

 

Then go find a couple of pitchers in free agency.

[howieramone2]

 

Not good enough to be a real difference maker.....acquiring number 4/5 starters in trade isn't taking this team to the playoffs.

We're going to find out this year aren't we.

[Mike Sixel]

 

We're going to find out this year aren't we.

 

Perhaps THIS team, sure.....but anything can happen in a given year. That doesn't make it likely to happen, but sure, it could happen (more likely because they signed Cruz and Cron and the hitters are healthy and good, imo).

[USAFChief]

I'd hope that they intend to try to contend in the theoretical future seasons that the prospects may contribute to as well.

Them competing now might seem more important to you than say 2023, but that doesn't make it so.

They absolutely can still win this trade. It's not 2019 or bust.

Celestino isnt a prospect, and will never reach the big leagues.

 

Alcala has a good arm, but trading off a piece that is sorely needed now for something that has a chance 3 years from now is a lost trade no matter how it ends up.

 

And that's if he even does end up helping the Twins, which is more unlikely than likely.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Alcala has a good arm, but trading off a piece that is sorely needed now for something that has a chance 3 years from now is a lost trade no matter how it ends up.
 

 

If Alcala becomes a good starting pitcher....they absolutely win that trade.  Calling that a loss already is absurd.

 

Time will tell.  As it does on all transactions.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Alcala has a good arm, but trading off a piece that is sorely needed now for something that has a chance 3 years from now is a lost trade no matter how it ends up.

No, man, it's not. Pressly had about 1.3 years left before free agency and was looking for a pay raise. There's absolutely no way you can say with a straight face that 6+ years of Alcala is a "lost trade no matter how it ends up".

 

The team still has to play in 2021, you know.

 

Now, that doesn't mean it was a good trade, either, but such finality is foolish, especially when it comes to relievers, the most fickle part of a roster.

[USAFChief]

No, man, it's not. Pressly had about 1.3 years left before free agency and was looking for a pay raise. There's absolutely no way you can say with a straight face that 6+ years of Alcala is a "lost trade no matter how it ends up".

 

The team still has to play in 2021, you know.

 

Now, that doesn't mean it was a good trade, either, but such finality is foolish, especially when it comes to relievers, the most fickle part of a roster.

The value of Pressly today is greater than the value of the chance-a small chance-that someday Alcala might help the team.

 

The greatest likelihood is that Alcala never impacts the major leagues, the same as any decent arm in AA.

 

In any case, It's a lost trade, no matter the result, even if Alcala ends up a 20 game winner some day. The Twins are on the wrong end of this bargain. The guaranteed value today is worth more than the potential value tomorrow.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The value of Pressly today is greater than the value of the chance-a small chance-that someday Alcala might help the team.

The greatest likelihood is that Alcala never impacts the major leagues, the same as any decent arm in AA.

In any case, It's a lost trade, no matter the result, even if Alcala ends up a 20 game winner some day. The Twins are on the wrong end of this bargain. The guaranteed value today is worth more than the potential value tomorrow.

That's not how valuation works, man.

 

You can be against the trade because you want the team to win now and that's okay. But to say the team lost the trade with such finality is utter nonsense.

 

You literally just said that a 20 game winner in the future is worth less than a good reliever today.

 

I'm sure you'll feel that way in 2022 if one of these pick-ups is cranking out Kershaw numbers.

 

Because that's a stance rational people have.

[twins_89]

 

Celestino isnt a prospect, and will never reach the big leagues.
 

 

Am I missing something about Celestino? He was the #11 international prospect in the 2015 class and is now a 20 year old in Cedar Rapids. MLB rates him as having above average hit, run, and arm tools along with a plus fielding tool. He's currently ranked the Twins 15th best prospect (in a fairly strong farm system). From what little I've read, it sounds like he's likely to be a plus defender in CF, and if his bat develops a bit he could be a regular in the majors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't mean to pile on, but I too disagree with Chief here. The trade can't be definitively lost for the Twins this year.

 

That said, I do think that some folks over-rate the ways in which the Twins could eventually win the trade. In general terms, the 2018 Twins had more ways to address their 2022 needs than their 2019 needs. Obviously that won't matter if Alcala becomes a Cy Young winner for us, but for a lot of other outcomes, even those outcomes that look superficially good for Alcala relative to Pressly, it could be a factor.

[USAFChief]

That's not how valuation works, man.

 

You can be against the trade because you want the team to win now and that's okay. But to say the team lost the trade with such finality is utter nonsense.

 

You literally just said that a 20 game winner in the future is worth less than a good reliever today.

 

I'm sure you'll feel that way in 2022 if one of these pick-ups is cranking out Kershaw numbers.

 

Because that's a stance rational people have.

Well, I disagree. If you need food today, but trade away food for penny stocks, you starve. IF the penny stocks turn into Apple 4 years from now, I'm sure that will be great comfort to your heirs, but those stocks won't bring you back from the grave. And that's only IF the penny stocks turn out to be valuable, which isnt the case for most penny stocks.

 

The Twins need bullpen help NOW. In a season when many things have aligned to give them an opportunity. Worry about 2023 in 2023. Put it this way...would you trade Celestino and Alcala for Pressly today?

 

BTW, it's "prospect," not "prospects," as we are talking about the Pressly trade and only one result of that trade is a pitcher.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Put it this way...would you trade Celestino and Alcala for Pressly today?

Again, I don't agree with the overall post, but this line is an interesting way to look at it. At the very least, the Twins would have to seriously consider making that reverse trade today, which adds some doubt to whether we can ultimately "win" the trade.