Twins and Gibson Discussion and Extension

[yarnivek1972]

This post literally made me laugh out loud.

 

1. I want my front office driving hard bargains and making fiscally responsible signings.

 

2. Please enlighten me to this extensive history.

The current front office has only been in charge for like 3 years, hardly enough time to have developed an extensive history. If you are referring to past management regimes that is not relevent. Go back far enough and all teams barred men of color from playing. Does that mean that all teams have an extensive history of racial discrimination? And should we view their current decisions through that lens?

The current ownership family has been in charge for 35 years. Are they likely involved with every contract offer? No. Are they setting a total payroll budget every year? Certainly.

[Mr. Brooks]

I looked at his pitching logs. Over a whole season unless the pitcher is very unlucky his team’s record when starting is a pretty good measure especially over 28+ starts unless he has some bawdy ERA. The Twins averaged about 4.5 runs a game so it wasn’t lack of run support. His ERA was good. Seems like a .500 pitcher.

It's not a good measure. Especially when the pitcher is on a team with a bullpen that blew a ton of games, as the Twins did last year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I looked at his pitching logs. Over a whole season unless the pitcher is very unlucky his team’s record when starting is a pretty good measure especially over 28+ starts unless he has some bawdy ERA. The Twins averaged about 4.5 runs a game so it wasn’t lack of run support. His ERA was good. Seems like a .500 pitcher.

I'm not sure where you were looking, but the Twins averaged only 3.73 runs per 9 innings in Gibson's starts in 2018, so yeah, I'd say run support could be an issue with looking at his W-L record.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=gibsoky01&t=p&year=2018#run_support::none

 

The Twins scored 121 runs in Gibson's 32 starts, an average of 3.78 per game.

 

The Twins scored 617 runs in their other 130 games, an average of 4.75 per game.

 

So a full run of support less, per game, of support for Gibson than their other starters.

[Rosterman]

Berrios is the number one concern.

 

I'm sure they wanted to lowball Gibson. So, the Twins have three starters who could be trade bait before July 31, and a whole horde of talent in the wings. Not that deep-sixing a rotation and replacing them with young-uns makes for a competitive team in the long run.

 

How much is Gibson worth? Three years $46 million? Higher? Option Year?

[Joe A. Preusser]

The current ownership family has been in charge for 35 years. Are they likely involved with every contract offer? No. Are they setting a total payroll budget every year? Certainly.

Please show me where anyone connected with the FO has clearly indicated a hard payroll cap.

 

Also, even if they did, that would not be a mandate to lowball every extension or free agent.

[Mike Sixel]

Please show me where anyone connected with the FO has clearly indicated a hard payroll cap.

 

Also, even if they did, that would not be a mandate to lowball every extension or free agent.

Until they sign a pitcher to a longer deal, that isn't a bargain, I'm not sure why we should believe they will.

[Mike Sixel]

We are how many off seasons in, with no even medium term pitcher signed? Heck, only one position player for more than two years. There is no evidence they are willing to sign anything other than short term bargains so far. At least in free agency.

[nicksaviking]

 

Until they sign a pitcher to a longer deal, that isn't a bargain, I'm not sure why we should believe they will.

 

I for one don't want free agent pitchers on long term deals. I'd prefer using the automatic seven years of control on the guys still in their prime and spending the free agent money on offense.

[Shaitan]

 

The current ownership family has been in charge for 35 years. Are they likely involved with every contract offer? No. Are they setting a total payroll budget every year? Certainly.

"ownership family"

 

Cherrypick terms much?

 

I have things in common with my father, yes. I'm also very different.

[bird]

 

The current ownership family has been in charge for 35 years. Are they likely involved with every contract offer? No. Are they setting a total payroll budget every year? Certainly.

 

 

This new FO has not failed to make expenditures that they otherwise would have deemed prudent based on spending restrictions imposed by Jim Pohlad and his Board of Directors. Not once. This team's payroll budget has been large enough during their tenure. That has not been the cause of the problem for this team over the past three years. Time to move on absent factual evidence to the contrary.

[USAFChief]

I think I'd let his contract situation ride. Make a qualifying offer in 2020 if earned this year. I like what Gibson has done, but let someone else pay retail.

[yarnivek1972]

This new FO has not failed to make expenditures that they otherwise would have deemed prudent based on spending restrictions imposed by Jim Pohlad and his Board of Directors. Not once. This team's payroll budget has been large enough during their tenure. That has not been the cause of the problem for this team over the past three years. Time to move on absent factual evidence to the contrary.

You mean like slashing $20 mil in payroll from 2018 to 2019?

[howieramone2]

 

We are how many off seasons in, with no even medium term pitcher signed? Heck, only one position player for more than two years. There is no evidence they are willing to sign anything other than short term bargains so far. At least in free agency.

Free agency is the market of last resort. Hard to lose on one deals. 

[howieramone2]

 

You mean like slashing $20 mil in payroll from 2018 to 2019?

Where do you get your information? On one of the other sites I believe they said we're 5M under at this moment, but project to be right around 128M, which is about the same.

[howieramone2]

I would guess they made him a fair offer. I would go 3/45M with a team option on a 4th year. I like a QO also.

[Mike Sixel]

I for one don't want free agent pitchers on long term deals. I'd prefer using the automatic seven years of control on the guys still in their prime and spending the free agent money on offense.

Good luck with that strategy.

[Mike Sixel]

Free agency is the market of last resort. Hard to lose on one deals.

 

No. It isn't. Most great teams have free agents on them. It's one of three ways to acquire talent.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, Cot's Baseball Contracts has the Twins payroll at $118 mil right now, $10 mil less than opening day 2018.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Ks25huKVP_ducCpWbLmo7h-N09oIGBGoa940Uergz8/pubhtml

 

Of course, about $6.5 mil of that wasn't adding player for 2019 -- it was just frontloading the Kepler and Polanco extensions.

[howieramone2]

 

No. It isn't. Most great teams have free agents on them. It's one of three ways to acquire talent.

We have a number of free agents. You're correct. There are 3 ways a acquire talent and free agency comes in last, as I previously stated. 

[howieramone2]

 

FWIW, Cot's Baseball Contracts has the Twins payroll at $118 mil right now, $10 mil less than opening day 2018.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Ks25huKVP_ducCpWbLmo7h-N09oIGBGoa940Uergz8/pubhtml

 

Of course, about $6.5 mil of that wasn't adding player for 2019 -- it was just frontloading the Kepler and Polanco extensions.

I got my numbers on MLBTR and they used some service called Resource something or other. Feel free to use your figures and I'll use mine. I'm at 124M and counting.

[NumberThree]

We have a number of free agents. You're correct. There are 3 ways a acquire talent and free agency comes in last, as I previously stated.

 

It shouldn’t automatically be considered last or a last resort. Unless you were saying that’s how the Twins use it, then I’d agree. But I don’t agree that’s how it should be used in all instances.

[nicksaviking]

 

Good luck with that strategy.

 

Why? This team should be just as capable of developing their own pitchers as the other clubs. With the teams controlling pitchers for their first seven years or longer, pitchers on the free agent market are almost certainly past their peaks. I don't want long term deals for guys who are past or almost past their peaks. If your team needs #3, 4 or 5 starters, great, go get some on the free agent market, but they don't require long term deals. But this team, and most teams really, should be developing their aces, not that aces end up making it to free agency anymore.

[yarnivek1972]

FWIW, Cot's Baseball Contracts has the Twins payroll at $118 mil right now, $10 mil less than opening day 2018.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Ks25huKVP_ducCpWbLmo7h-N09oIGBGoa940Uergz8/pubhtml

 

Of course, about $6.5 mil of that wasn't adding player for 2019 -- it was just frontloading the Kepler and Polanco extensions.

Also, $8 mil of that is going to Phil Hughes, Logan Morrison and Ervin Santana.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I got my numbers on MLBTR and they used some service called Resource something or other. Feel free to use your figures and I'll use mine. I'm at 124M and counting.

Do you have a link? Your memory has been demonstrably proven fallible several times recently...

 

If you're referring to Roster Resource, they estimate the Twins 2019 payroll at $123 mil right now -- but that's not opening day payroll -- they include 31 guys to get that number, with only 1 (Sano) slated for the DL right now. That shouldn't be directly compared to last year's opening day payroll (which was only the salaries of the 25 man roster plus MLB DL as of opening day -- edit to add: plus the cut Anibal Sanchez).

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins-info/

 

Cot's opening day payroll is based on 26 guys including Sano. (No option buyouts, though, which would represent another $2 mil for the Twins if you want to include them: $1 mil each for Ervin and Morrison. Cot's is consistent about excluding buyouts across the site, though. I might ask them about that!)

[rdehring]

 

We are how many off seasons in, with no even medium term pitcher signed? Heck, only one position player for more than two years. There is no evidence they are willing to sign anything other than short term bargains so far. At least in free agency.

Is this front office looking at the current Twins as a team that can be filled by players within their system.  Thus, they are filling certain needs on a short-term basis.  To me, that is being smart.  Should this current group prove they aren't the answer, then we will need to see how their approach changes.  Until then, I like what they are going.

 

And speaking about filling from within, what a spring Kirilloff is having.  Gotta believe he will begin the year in AA and play for the Twins prior to the end of the year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is this front office looking at the current Twins as a team that can be filled by players within their system.  Thus, they are filling certain needs on a short-term basis.  To me, that is being smart.  Should this current group prove they aren't the answer, then we will need to see how their approach changes.  Until then, I like what they are going.

 

And speaking about filling from within, what a spring Kirilloff is having.  Gotta believe he will begin the year in AA and play for the Twins prior to the end of the year.

 

No good team is built only from within. So, I hope not. You use all three channels. 

 

And, why not sign a FA you believe in, and if you end up with excess players somehow, trade some off for better players? 

[rdehring]

 

No good team is built only from within. So, I hope not. You use all three channels. 

 

And, why not sign a FA you believe in, and if you end up with excess players somehow, trade some off for better players? 

Don't understand how your answer responds to what I said. I was responding to your comment about their not signing any free agents longer term.  I did not say that they are only building from within.  I said that at this point in time, they want to see what they have and are filling their current needs by using short term free agents. 

 

My comment also has nothing to do with whether or not there have been good teams that were built from within.  I suspect you are correct and that the vast majority of good teams have some players signed as free agents or acquired thru trades.   

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

(No option buyouts, though, which would represent another $2 mil for the Twins if you want to include them: $1 mil each for Ervin and Morrison. Cot's is consistent about excluding buyouts across the site, though. I might ask them about that!)

So to follow up, I emailed Jeff at Cot's (BP) and got a fast response about option buyouts:

 

"Buyouts are generally paid in the five-day window after the World Series. So clubs usually include those cash amounts on their books in that calendar year, which would be the last guaranteed year of the player's contract. For annual payroll purposes, each team is free to juggle the accounting as they wish."

 

That makes some sense -- unlike the remaining Hughes salary, those option buyouts were guaranteed and paid prior to 2019, so it's kind of silly to lump them in with 2019 expenditures. Under that accounting, the Twins 2018 opening day payroll could be considered $2 mil higher than actually reported, which would make the current drop in 2019 even steeper.

 

Not Twins-related, but I also asked about how option buyouts are figured in luxury tax calculations:

 

"For the luxury tax, any buyout amount is pro-rated over the life of the guaranteed years in the contract. So luxury tax figures basically assume the option is declined. If a club exercises an option, it receives a credit for the unpaid buyout. That buyout amount usually is deducted from the option year salary for tax purposes. A good example is the Red Sox, who exercised the club option for Craig Kimbrel for 2018. His salary for the 2018 option year was $13 million, and for luxury tax purposes, Boston received a $500,000 credit for the $500,00 buyout the club did not pay."

[cardsfan]

8

Don't understand how your answer responds to what I said. I was responding to your comment about their not signing any free agents longer term.  I did not say that they are only building from within.  I said that at this point in time, they want to see what they have and are filling their current needs by using short term free agents. 

 

My comment also has nothing to do with whether or not there have been good teams that were built from within.  I suspect you are correct and that the vast majority of good teams have some players signed as free agents or acquired thru trades.

 

Most small and mid-market teams have had to build within and trades since FA started in mid 70s in order to win it all. They may sign their franchise players long-time contracts that go past their free agent years. As a mid-market team you hope you have the bigger market teams in a down year and hopefully getting burned in FA. It was great that the Red Sox hadn’t won a WS for 86 years, Yankees went winless until the late 90’s after winning in ‘77 and ‘78, the Dodgers have gone 30 years since winning and the Cubs went 108 years. The Phillies are only 2 WS timers.

 

If you have a bad signing it usually means you have to string the player along until you finally dump him in a trade or release him taking up a roster spot. Signing mid-level pitchers like Hughes and Santana and injury proned like Garza in order to get lucky doesn’t seem to work very much. So building through draft, trades, and a year or two free agent seems to work best for us.

[jorgenswest]

SpotTrac has the Twins 2019 payroll at more than the final payroll for 2018.

 

It won’t stay that way if they are sellers but by various accounts 2019 is not far off from 2018.