Weather for the Home Opener

[scottz]

My degree is in meteorology and, while I never forecasted as a profession, I've always maintained an interest in forecasting. When I heard that the Twins home opener was March 28, I laughed and laughed as I thought about just how bad the weather could be. Of course, March weather can be quite nice, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Well, we are close enough now that the weather models are beginning to make their various declarations and I thought it would be fun to post them here, both to give us something to look forward to, and to keep a running diary of how things change over a two week period in the world of weather models.

 

Though I can't promise I'll remember to post every day (I'll be unavailable the last few days before the opener), I hope you enjoy it. I also hope that you appreciate the difficulty of predicting the weather. It is easy (and quite fun) to make fun of meteorologists and weather forecasts, but there is an awful lot of impressive work done in this field.

 

If any of you want to check out a couple of sites and snoop around, go for it!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

https://weather.us/forecast/5037649-minneapolis/ensemble/usa

 

Hopefully the picture shows up/attaches and you can see that one model (GFS) shows a temperature around 45. Another (FV3) shows a temperature in the mid- to upper-30s. An ensemble of several different models show temperatures ranging from the lowest forecast of 35 and the highest/most optimistic model forecasting 65. The average of this ensemble is 49. All of these forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

I won't get into precipitation just yet.

 

Enjoy?

 

(EDIT: Picture issue solved.)

[dbminn]

Based on scientific evidence, March is "in like a lion, out like a lamb". The temperature will be 52F on opening day.

 

I'll check back if the groundhog differs with my prediction.

 

 

[amjgt]

I'll just check the farmers almanac and assume it's going to be right.

[scottz]

 

Based on scientific evidence, March is "in like a lion, out like a lamb". The temperature will be 52F on opening day.

 

I'll check back if the groundhog differs with my prediction.

 

Historical average high temp for March 28th is 48. A prediction of 52 seems well within the bounds of reason.

[scottz]

 

I'll just check the farmers almanac and assume it's going to be right.

 

Always trust a farmer. It's written by farmers, right?

[spanman2]

Sign me up for 52 and sun with very very light winds if any at all.

[dbminn]

 

Historical average high temp for March 28th is 48. A prediction of 52 seems well within the bounds of reason.

 

 

Always trust a farmer. It's written by farmers, right?

 

I'm busted. We have a family farm. While we don't get the Farmer's Almanac, our family has kept weather records (for the most part) since the early 1900s. 

[Doomtints]

Those temps are fine if it's not windy.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Based on scientific evidence, March is "in like a lion, out like a lamb". The temperature will be 52F on opening day.

 

I'll check back if the groundhog differs with my prediction.

Groundhog said early spring.... I think it's time to put him down...

 

I'm going with 4 inches of snow and a high of 30.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Historical average high temp for March 28th is 48. A prediction of 52 seems well within the bounds of reason.

The problem with historical averages is that the climate ain’t what it used to be, if you know what I mean.

[ashbury]

The problem with historical averages is that the climate ain’t what it used to be, if you know what I mean.

Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. -- Noah

[scottz]

 

The problem with historical averages is that the climate ain’t what it used to be, if you know what I mean.

Historical averages or historical normals cited here and commonly elsewhere - the "climate data" for a given site - are 30 year averages updated upon the completion of a decade. Current historical averages are from 1981-2010 data. The previous historical averages were 1971-2000, and before that 1961-1990, and so on. Any change in climate, for whatever reason or cause, would be captured by the most current 10 year period replacing the oldest 10 year period.

 

So, there's not a problem with historical averages, even if I don't know what you mean, if you know what I mean.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Historical averages or historical normals cited here and commonly elsewhere - the "climate data" for a given site - are 30 year averages updated upon the completion of a decade. Current historical averages are from 1981-2010 data. The previous historical averages were 1971-2000, and before that 1961-1990, and so on. Any change in climate, for whatever reason or cause, would be captured by the most current 10 year period replacing the oldest 10 year period.

 

So, there's not a problem with historical averages, even if I don't know what you mean, if you know what I mean.

Yep. And if things change rapidly and are outside the norm, then historical averages don't mean a whole lot, even if you weight them. Which is pretty much... what's happening now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Can we please avoid turning this thread into a discussion on climate change?

 

Thanks.

[Platoon]

Here's an observation based on history for you, despite the fact that I have no records whatsoever on this topic. . It's generally not a good idea to plan a major outdoor event in MN for late March, outdoors. Add in the necessity of intricate athletic machinatitions and the likelihood of a large group of people sitting for three hours mostly unprotected, and the odds of it being a comfortable event or experience are historically poor. :)

[scottz]

 

Can we please avoid turning this thread into a discussion on climate change?

 

Thanks.

No, no. Thank YOU.

[scottz]

Here's your updated home opener (temperature) forecast. Most, but not all, changes have been for the warmer. At 14 days out, it still means about as much as spring training statistics, but we can be optimistic if we choose to be.

 

You'll notice that I have added a Euro ensemble to the mix. The reason for this is that the USA ensemble is a 16 day run while the Euro is a 15 day run (and therefore, was unavailable yesterday for March 28).

 

Today's forecast is included for each in bold, as well as in the attached photos. Yesterday's forecast is in parentheses for each model. Again, all of these forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

GFS - It takes a bit of interpolating, but for Minneapolis, I'd say the forecast number is around 46-48 (45). Note the change in the temps to our south and west. Warmth optimism from GFS.

FV3 - A high around 41 (38), but also some of the same warming trend to the south and west. A 51 on the border between SD and NE where a 28 showed up yesterday.

Ensemble USA - Low end drops to 25 (35) while the top end increases to 68 (65). The average of this ensemble overall drops a little at 46 (49).

Ensemble Euro - Similar to USA, the coldest model on the low end at 28, with the warmest at 62. The mean is 45. Euro gives a 90% percentile estimate of the models at 54, and a 10% shot at 34.

 

No precip discussion yet. Maybe this weekend or Monday. Enjoy or ignore to your heart's content!

[scottz]

 

Yep. And if things change rapidly and are outside the norm, then historical averages don't mean a whole lot, even if you weight them. Which is pretty much... what's happening now.

Just closing one part of this subthread to address "weighting". The historical averages aren't weighted. The datasets change, but no data from any year/day/hour is given more weight than any other. Just wanted to clear that up.

 

If you want to discuss further, feel free to message me!

[Oldgoat_MN]

scottz - Thanks for doing this! It will be fun to follow.

Not as much fun as tracking Buxton, but still...

[scottz]

 

scottz - Thanks for doing this! It will be fun to follow.

Not as much fun as tracking Buxton, but still...

You're welcome!

 

I totally agree. I hope Buxton's play continues to forecast 72 and sunny with a gentle breeze.

[luckylager]

Pro tip: If you're going, get seats on the third base side. 

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Good stuff!    Anything in that dataset that gives the odds the Mississippi River will rise to the level of the Lake Street Bridge on opening day?

[theBOMisthebomb]

It's difficult to be optimistic at this point. It feels as if the opener can't be anything but a miserable winter experience. Hopefully that puffer vest makes it all worth it. Minnesota sucks.

[ashbury]

It's difficult to be optimistic at this point. It feels as if the opener can't be anything but a miserable winter experience. Hopefully that puffer vest makes it all worth it. Minnesota sucks.

That's the spirit!

 

Gosh I miss that place.

[yarnivek1972]

Good stuff! Anything in that dataset that gives the odds the Mississippi River will rise to the level of the Lake Street Bridge on opening day?

I don’t think enough snow will have melted yet to substantially raise the Mississippi.

[scottz]

Another day, another forecast. GFS is providing a good example of why no self-respecting meteorologist issues 14 day temperature forecasts. Things change, and sometimes pretty dramatically that far out. Good thing I have no self-respect. Let's forecast!

 

One item to note is that (many of) these models have new model runs every 6 hours. For consistency sake, I am using the "06Z" model runs, even though a newer model is already out today. I've heard and read that some forecasters trust one run over another because they feel that one of the four daily runs tends to run cold, or that the data that is input for one of the runs is sometimes incomplete. Whatever. We're still 13 days out and none of the models should be trusted yet. So I'm sticking with 06Z and will for the duration of this thread.

 

Today's forecast is included for each model in bold. Yesterday's forecast is in (parentheses). All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

GFS - GFS with the mood swing from warming trend yesterday to "gross baseball weather" today, with a temperature right around freezing 32 (46-48). Ish. We will blame it on possible precipitation that we're not talking about yet, but which GFS is considering. It is quite possible that GFS bounces right back tomorrow.

FV3 - FV3 takes on a little of the warmth that GFS is shunning with a 1PM temp of 46 (41), but I wouldn't bet the house, with a 50 in northern MN and 39 in Fargo. Kind of wonky today.

Ensemble USA - Low end of 27 (25) while the top end shows 63 (68). The average of this ensemble is 44 (46), coming down two consecutive days.

Ensemble Euro - The coldest model is not much different than yesterday at 29 (28), with the warmest bumping up a little to 66 (62). The mean creeps up a little as well with 48 (45). Euro's 90% percentile estimate of the max temp is 60 (54), with a 10% chance of 39 (34).

 

I'm not sure I'll be keeping on top of these this weekend. But I'm not sure you will be either, so either way, I'm sure we'll be fine.

[scottz]

10 days out from the opener, and things are starting to get more real. And real looks...warmer. There are a couple of low pressure systems that are trying to set up in the Rockies between now and then, but as of right now, none is organizing into anything too threatening on the precipitation front. That picture will continue to come into focus over the next days. 

 

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

GFS - I took a broadcast meteorology course in college where the adjunct professor told us about the psychology of spring temperatures in forecasts. He said that you should never say 60 for a high temperature if you weren't dead certain it was going to be in the 60s. Say 59. Never say 70 if you weren't sure. Say 68 (not 69, for other reasons). He didn't say 50 explictly, but I'm sure that would apply too. So looking at the forecast for GFS as of today, I'd say 49.

FV3 - FV3 would make me feel more comfortable for the warmth, given that it is showing a nice warm bubble to the southwest. But based on the advice above, I'd still read this as 49.

 

Also, although I didn't keep this going over the weekend, the Saturday forecast for both GFS and FV3 was colder than today's, and yesterday's forecast for both was warmer. So there's been a little bit of jumping around. Not uncommon for spring forecasting.

 

Ensemble USA - The coldest model has come up quite a bit since I last posted, all the way to 42. The warmest model shows 62. The mean is all the way up to 50. I can't say 49 here. That's just math.

Ensemble Euro - Euro still holds out for a chance of some cold on the low end at 32, with 66 on the high end. The mean is holding at 48. Euro's 90% percentile estimate of the max temp is 60, with a 10% percentile at 39. These are all really similar to what the Euro produced on Friday.

[MMMordabito]

Just got my opener tickets today, so I hope the warming trend continues.

[scottz]

 

Just got my opener tickets today, so I hope the warming trend continues.

The warming trend continues - at least for the 06Z model runs, and at least for the home opener. Should we ignore everything else? Of course not! Are we going to ignore everything else in this post! Mostly, yes!

 

Today's forecasts in bold. Yesterday's in (parentheses).

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

GFS - Remember yesterday when we were on the edge of 49 and 50? Today's run brings the heat. The pretty pictures says 56 (49).

FV3 - The warm bubble to the southwest yesterday is now a warm bubble for Minnesota and the Dakotas. A solid 55 (49).

 

Feeling good? Not yet. The very next FV3 model run shows 43 while the GFS stays warm. What gives? I think both models are trying to get a handle on a low pressure center setting up over Denver in the days before the opener, and it just isn't a very organized low right now. If I had to bet right now, I'd say that the opener might be a real nice day, and then the Saturday and Sunday games would have cold rain. Good thing I don't have to bet. Let's mostly ignore this.

 

Ensemble USA - Some of that same uncertainty is still hanging around here as the coldest model drops back to 35 (42). The warmest model stays pretty consistent at 63 (62). But even there, consistency doesn't mean too much, as it's not the same warmest model as yesterday. Still lots of jumping around by each of the models. The mean falls just a degree to 49 (50).

Ensemble Euro - A little bit of opposite world for Euro on the cold end, as just as USA goes back colder, Euro's coldest model jumps up to 40 (32). Still a lovely 64 (66) on the warm end. The mean made a big jump to 53 (48). I won't be shocked to see it come back down tomorrow. Euro's 90% percentile estimate for max temp is 61 (60), with the 10% percentile estimate at 46 (39). Euro also adds a "main run" today, with the temp coming in at 60.

 

The only thing I think I can say for sure right now, is that it is a good thing the Rockies open in Miami.

[Nine of twelve]

I just want to say I greatly appreciate the information posted by a trained professional. These posts are on a par with Heezy's posts about orthopedic medicine. It sure beats reading the screeds of know-nothings and conspiracy theorists.