Marwin Gonzalez and Twins Discussing Contract

[PseudoSABR]

 

Shoring up the bottom of the roster again, vs the top.

 

Odd way of doing business.

He's an asset.  And the Twins are spending money. 

 

That he's not Harper shouldn't be a valid criticism.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

I'm jacked about this. I wonder if he'll replace Adrianza, or he'll push Sano to 1st, and take over 3rd. 

or push Cave to AAA

[stringer bell]

Gonzales has played more games at SS than any other position. He is one year removed from a +.900 OPS, and he is a switch-hitter. Good signing with many, many scenarios for where he’ll get his playing time.

[ahart10]

This blows the door wide open for constructing a 25 man roster. Barring any injuries, I’d guess he replaces Cave, who has an option. No reason to lose 40 man depth if you don’t need to.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Shoring up the bottom of the roster again, vs the top.

 

Odd way of doing business.

But making the bottom of the roster does make the top better.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He's an asset.  And the Twins are spending money. 

 

That he's not Harper shouldn't be a valid criticism.

I'm with Chief here, and I don't think it's fair to phrase it as "he's not Harper".

 

Gonzalez has a 1.8 WAR projection in full time play (595 PA). And despite his 2017, he's got a relatively narrow ranges of likely outcomes.

 

This team is brimming with ~2 WAR types, including basically every single acquisition they've made the last two years. I wanted to see them spend money this winter too, but honestly, if it is just spending to add yet another ~2 WAR type -- one who may not even have a regular role, mind you -- for two years at $10.5 mil each guaranteed, I think I would have rather they waited. Use the money to wait out Keuchel or Kimbrel, maybe add a Cole Hamels type contract midseason, heck maybe even use it to buy prospects by providing someone else some salary relief (and thus make it easier to trade from your own stockpile of prospects for MLB talent).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But making the bottom of the roster does make the top better.

Not really, at least not in my view.

 

Theoretically, if you already have nine ~2 WAR players in your lineup, adding a 10th doesn't really improve "the top". It makes it more likely that you can indeed average 2 WAR across your starting 9 -- if a guy gets hurt or underperforms, Gonzalez can slide in and contribute his ~2 WAR. But you're still largely capped at ~18 WAR from those 9 spots.

 

What really improves the "top" is when you can add a 4-5 WAR guy, especially at a spot where you may be looking at sub-1 WAR (i.e. Perez's rotation spot?). If they don't think there's a 4-5 WAR guy available right now, or they can't confidently say what our weak spots (sub-1 WAR) might be, then I'd almost rather wait. (Provided, of course, that we are willing to be aggressive when those 4-5 WAR guys are available, and the sub-1 WAR weak spots are clear.)

[Musk21]

Who's going to be removed from the 40-man roster? Granite? Other possibilities?

[USAFChief]

 

But making the bottom of the roster does make the top better.

You've got that backwards.

 

Making the top of the roster better pushes players down and makes the bottom better.

[TheLeviathan]

They can still sign Kuechel or Kimbrel by the way.  It doesn't have to be either/or.  

[Riverbrian]

 

Not really, at least not in my view.

 

Theoretically, if you already have nine ~2 WAR players in your lineup, adding a 10th doesn't really improve "the top". It makes it more likely that you can indeed average 2 WAR across your starting 9 -- if a guy gets hurt or underperforms, Gonzalez can slide in and contribute his ~2 WAR. But you're still largely capped at ~18 WAR from those 9 spots.

 

What really improves the "top" is when you can add a 4-5 WAR guy, especially at a spot where you may be looking at sub-1 WAR (i.e. Perez's rotation spot?). If they don't think there's a 4-5 WAR guy available right now, or they can't confidently say what our weak spots (sub-1 WAR) might be, then I'd almost rather wait. (Provided, of course, that we are willing to be aggressive when those 4-5 WAR guys are available, and the sub-1 WAR weak spots are clear.)

 

I'm not really a WAR guy so I am somewhat uncomfortable speaking it... But in context... here goes. 

 

I get your point, You've earned my complete respect over the years on Twinsdaily but you know that 2 WAR guys become 5 WAR guys.

 

Having more of them increases your odds of producing a 5 war guy. 

 

5 WAR Guys also become 1 War Guys like Brian Dozier. (Or like Marwin Gonzalez). 

 

Improving your bottom does indeed improve your top... because the top doesn't always stay on top. 

 

I give no guarantee that Marwin will earn his contract... but I like his odds of producing better than Adrianaza's Odds. 

 

If it doesn't work out... It's only money and the cost of doing business. 

 

 

[Twins33]

For what it's worth, Marwin put up similar numbers to those that Niko Goodrum posted last season:

 

Goodrum: 131 games, 16 HR, 53 RBI, .245

Gonzalez: 145 games, 16 HR, 68 RBI, .247

 

Goodrum's younger by 3+ years. Looks like another oopsie by the Twins in regards to talent evaluation yet again. Disappointing to see a guy we could have kept on the cheap get away, and a year later the Twins are fighting to pay a clone 10x as much money for the same job.

Not that I necessarily disagree but subtract 5 HRs and 13 RBI if Niko were still a Twin. He dominated us. He did well against some other teams but didn't have double digit RBI vs any other team and his next highest HR total against other teams was 2.

 

He also was double digits in runs vs the Twins, which he didn't do against other teams either. So you were probably going to get less from Niko as a Twin unless he would have dominated the Tigers like he did the Twins.

 

I'm happy to have Marwin though. He was someone I wanted signed this offseason and I'm surprised it happened.

[GP830]

 

They can still sign Kuechel or Kimbrel by the way.  It doesn't have to be either/or.  

This Marwin news actually makes it seem more likely that they will sign one of those two. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Who's going to be removed from the 40-man roster? Granite? Other possibilities?

Granite is my guess

[Channing1964]

Can't see it. Cave was our second best OF last season, really the best when Rosario went into his slump. I know he strikes out a lot but a guy with a .797 OPS, 113 OPS+ is going to make the team if he doesn't fall flat on his face. He'll get chance to improve his walks and cut down on his SOs because he's an .800 plus OPS guy if he can do those things. He may regress but he'll get a chance to show if last year was a fluke - and he should get that chance. He earned it on the field.

 

If we get Gonzalez (I hope we do), he replaces Adrianza. Astudillo or Austin make the team when we carry 12 pitchers at the start and go down to AAA if/when we go to 13. Chances are there will be an injury in there that will help make the decision.

I know its not just you ....why does it seem like 29 games of decent play makes you a lock to a guaranteed roster spot the next year? Austidillo is no Marwin Gonzalez. If Austidillo can flat out beat out Garver at second catcher he makes the team. If not he sees about Rochester. Its all about options. Consequently if Buxton doesnt fall on his face last year Cave never even visits Target Field. The only thing Austin proved to me last year(besides that he can't hit rh pictching) is that he can't beat out Neal Walker at 1B. If he doesnt beat out Cron, He GONE. Adrianza prolly will start off on the DL. I could see an opening bench of Cave, Gonzalez, Garver, and Astudillo to open but when Adrianza comes back and when we go to 13 pitchers, Cave and Astudillo are back to Rochester.

[USAFChief]

I know its not just you ....why does it seem like 29 games of decent play makes you a lock to a guaranteed roster spot the next year? Austidillo is no Marwin Gonzalez. If Austidillo can flat out beat out Garver at second catcher he makes the team. If not he sees about Rochester. Its all about options. Consequently if Buxton doesnt fall on his face last year Cave never even visits Target Field. The only thing Austin proved to me last year(besides that he can't hit rh pictching) is that he can't beat out Neal Walker at 1B. If he doesnt beat out Cron, He GONE. Adrianza prolly will start off on the DL. I could see an opening bench of Cave, Gonzalez, Garver, and Astudillo to open but when Adrianza comes back and when we go to 13 pitchers, Cave and Astudillo are back to Rochester.

did I miss something? Why would Adrianza start the season on the DL?

[ashbury]

did I miss something? Why would Adrianza start the season on the DL?

Left-shoulder surgery in October that is forecast to take 6-8 months to recover from. Learned that just a day or so ago. He can bat lefty, and appeared in the game yesterday.

 

I went from wondering if he would be DFAed after the signing of Marwin, to wondering if he should be on the 60-day Injured List (come on, get with the current lingo ), to not knowing his role at all, within a very short span of time.

 

I don't know what the rules are for placing a player on the Injured List, such as when a switch-hitter is available for platoon duty only. I mean, if the player agrees he's injured, no one will lodge a grievance, but what if he insists he can bat lefty against all opponents? Arguably he would not be on a major-league roster with his otherwise marginal bat, without the slight boost that switch-hitting provides, so what are the legalities?

[Channing1964]

I like the approach that results matter - the guys who play best should be on the team. I just think Cave is one of those guys over Adrianza. Cave is much better at the plate and a decent OF, plus having him means that either he or Kepler can be the LH 1B/DH when either Cron or Cruz sits. Adrianza is a decent utility infielder but Marwin Gonzalez is a lot better and he can play SS almost as well. Gonzalez makes Adrianza redundent. Astudillo is a nice story and gives you a 3rd Catcher but the sample size is so small and he won't play much on this team if the team stays healthy.

 

I say we start with a 4 man bench of Garver, Cave, Gonzalez and Astudillo. Adrianza on the DL, Austin waived and either in Rochester or with somebody else. Astudillo goes when we go to 13 pitchers unless there's an injury. Gonzalez gets 500+ ABs in the infield, and a few games in LF. Cave stays and gets 300-350 ABs in the OF, hits 10-15 HRs again and drops his SO% to 25% so his OPS is .800 plus hitting mostly against RH pitching. Garver gets 400 ABs at catcher/1B and is the starting catcher more often than not by the end of the season. Astudillo is the first man up if someone gets hurt regardless of position. Adrianza clears waivers, is the Rochester SS (until Lewis is ready for AAA) and only comes up if Polanco goes on the DL for more than 10 days. Austin goes to AAA, plays OF a lot to improve his vesatility and trade value, and only gets a chance due to injury and/or is traded as part of a deadline package.

I like this version very much as well. I dont know why I always think our guys wont clear waivers. I guess its because I really dont wanna risk losing any of them. Deep down i am rooting for Austin to get down and straight up beat Cron out. Adrianza's shoulder problem (i just heard about it too) just made the roster decisions easier. I'm glad i dont have to sort out our bullpen situation.