Could Rooker Be a Breakout Candidate?

[Lonestar]

MLB Pipeline has an article entitled: Stats Say These 10 Prospects Should Take Off In '19 including our own Brent Rooker.

https://www.mlb.com/news/stats-say-these-prospects-will-improve-in-2019/c-301972294?tid=151437456

 

Rooker put up the following line playing for AA Chatanooga:

.254/.333/.465/.798 with 10.0% BB%, 26.8% K%, and BABIP = .300

 

While recognizing the danger of small sample sizes and arbitrary start and end dates, his season does have some interesting splits (streaks?):

 

Apr/May .240/.277/.411/.689 with BB% = 4.95%, K%=29.7%, BABIP = .295

Jun/Jul .314/.399/.623/1.022 with BB%=12.45%, K%=26.2%, BABIP = .357

Aug/Sep .168/.282/.262/.544 with BB%=13.7%, K%=23.4%, BABIP = .205

 

Discuss among yourselves.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yes. Rooker can hit. Great pick for a second rounder.

 

These types of players appear in other organizations all the time. Guys who can hit. There's no reason the Twins should be different. Bring him up in May. If he's not ready, option him back. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Yes. Rooker can hit. Great pick for a second rounder.

 

These types of players appear in other organizations all the time. Guys who can hit. There's no reason the Twins should be different. Bring him up in May. If he's not ready, option him back.

Rooker needs to make huge strides before he's even a consideration to face MLB pitching.

I don't get this idea we occasionally see on here that guys who have yet to figure out minor league pitching will somehow figure out MLB pitching (I also see it with Gordon.)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

On the other hand, "master every level" is not the answer for all prospects either.

[Mr. Brooks]

On the other hand, "master every level" is not the answer for all prospects either.

I agree. I'm not asking for him to master any level. But he's not close now. I don't care if he hits 100 HR's at AA, he's simply not an MLB caliber player until/unless he makes very dramatic improvements in k and bb rates.

[Vanimal46]

I anticipate him repeating AA to start the year and hopefully produce big numbers. Wouldn't be opposed to a direct call up from AA if he's raking and the underlying metrics look good.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I agree. I'm not asking for him to master any level. But he's not close now. I don't care if he hits 100 HR's at AA, he's simply not an MLB caliber player until/unless he makes very dramatic improvements in k and bb rates.

I really think you're overstating by saying he needs to "dramatically" improve, especially considering the high K% rates of other guys in the organization.  

 

Maybe Rooker needs to improve a little, but he's developing, and I think he'll do that. The info in the original post showed a nice trend last season. 

[jkcarew]

What happened in those last two months was that the improved BB and K rates where happening at the expense of the HR rate. Sometimes that’s a sign of a developing player trying to make adjustments. One step back to take two forward. Or at least that’s the glass-half-full theme I’m going with for now.

[DocBauer]

What happened in those last two months was that the improved BB and K rates where happening at the expense of the HR rate. Sometimes that’s a sign of a developing player trying to make adjustments. One step back to take two forward. Or at least that’s the glass-half-full theme I’m going with for now.

Absolutely agree. His BABIP seems unusually low. Adjustments he was making, adjustments by pitchers, bad luck, a long season winding down, or some combination?

 

Remember, not only his first season of AA, but his first full professional season. There are a lot of adjustments to make, and season length is one of them.

 

He has the power. He has the ability to hit, even with some BB/SO concerns. But he is a young, inexperienced player despite not being an "ideal" 22yo in regard to age. I think he did just fine. It's unfortunate injury kept him out of the AFL. I wouldn't be surprised to see him begin 2019 back in AA to get off to a good start before moving to Rochester.

[drivlikejehu]

The problem for Rooker is his lack of defensive value - he could be an average MLB hitter, something that is exceedingly difficult, and still be close to replacement level. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I anticipate him repeating AA to start the year and hopefully produce big numbers. Wouldn't be opposed to a direct call up from AA if he's raking and the underlying metrics look good.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they did this or pushed to Rochester. I'm fine either way as I don't think the gap between AA and AAA is all that bad...

 

as for Rooker, yes he could break out, but given that he's already on the map, a breakout season would be a >.900 OPS type season. His problem right now is Ks. Just too many. If he cuts those down and makes some adjustments to raise that BABIP, he'll be really good, and good enough to be brought up as a 1B/DH only type. 

 

Either way, we have a couple more years to make that call.

[Vanimal46]

The problem for Rooker is his lack of defensive value - he could be an average MLB hitter, something that is exceedingly difficult, and still be close to replacement level.

That's one of the reasons why he can be rushed as well if he's mashing the ball. He doesn't have to hone his craft Fielding a premium position like Gordon and Lewis.

 

If Rooker and Kirilloff keep mashing, they can be on the fast track to the majors and stick them at 1B/DH or a corner OF spot.

[gunnarthor]

I like Rooker and strike outs are becoming a much more accepted part of the game. I'm worried that he's going to be an all-or-nothing type player - hitting something like .230/.290/.480. Essentially Daniel Palka last year.

 

That's not a horrible player - Palka's bat was roughly a 2 WAR bat over a fullseason but his defense was horrible. But I hope Rooker is better than that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe we can attribute Rooker's strikeout rate to the jump from rookie to high A ball.

 

Otherwise, there's no reason to be overly concerned (a little concerned, sure) about the strikeouts or to think the front office is gauging his strikeout rate first and foremost. And of course there are things we can only know about him or his swing from seeing him up close and not the stat sheet. But generally these are the types of guys they are targeting to acquire. Larnach had a steeper college K% rate than Rooker, for example.

 

If Rooker shows even average aptitude at first base, I think we see him pretty soon and he becomes the guy in 2020.

[nicksaviking]

Hidden in Rooker's August/September offensive low point is his also reduced strikeout rate. That's pretty encouraging to me. Clearly his late summer swoon was NOT due to strikeouts.

 

He incrementally decreased his strikeouts each and every month in fact, starting the year off whiffing over 29% of the time in May and getting that number below 23% by August.

 

A lot of his pre-draft hype was based on how he was a student of the art of hitting. He seemed like the kind of guy who if strikeouts where going to hold him back, he wasn't going to stubbornly keep doing what he always did, he was going to work out that problem.

[bird]

We'll probably know this year whether Rooker improves his contact and/or pitch recogniton skills, or whatever other hitting skills are deficient. These guys seem to have optimism, and we all hope they're right.

 

Rooker strikes me as a prospect who has an extra heaping of optimism attached to him. He reminds me of Gonsalves from two years ago. 

 

The optimism is great, and so is the less frequent pessimism. Personally, I'm a bit skeptical of both. I'm continually intrigued by the ebbs and flows of my own sense and others' when it comes to these guys. I love the roller coaster ride with guys like Kohl Stewart. I love trying to guess who the next under-appreciated prospects will be (Rortvedt? Enlow? Leach? Arias?) and who the next over-hyped guys will be (Wade? Reed? um, Rooker?)

[brvama]

Outstanding posts and I enjoyed everyone. Wished all were like this.

[Jim Hahn]

I like Rooker and strike outs are becoming a much more accepted part of the game. I'm worried that he's going to be an all-or-nothing type player - hitting something like .230/.290/.480. Essentially Daniel Palka last year.

 

That's not a horrible player - Palka's bat was roughly a 2 WAR bat over a fullseason but his defense was horrible. But I hope Rooker is better than that.

To me this kind of player is pretty easy to replace and not particularly valuable. Kennys Vargas was just like Palka. Field and Austin probably aren't much different. I think WAR overvalues this type of player. Except for the games they hit a home run, they provide negative value.

 

Unless this kind of player can either figure out how to get on base at a better rate, or hits so many home runs that you are willing to put with the low on base, I would rather replace that kind of hitter with someone who is more a more of a well rounded player even if you lose most of the home runs. I don't think Rooker is horrible defensively and there is some promise he can improve his contact skills. So, I am hopeful about him. I will be a little surprised if we see him in the big leagues this year, unless there are multiple injuries or non performance at the big league level.

[clutterheart]

Hasn't he broke out already? He is in most peoples top 10 already

[Mike Sixel]

I wouldn't be surprised if they did this or pushed to Rochester. I'm fine either way as I don't think the gap between AA and AAA is all that bad...

 

as for Rooker, yes he could break out, but given that he's already on the map, a breakout season would be a >.900 OPS type season. His problem right now is Ks. Just too many. If he cuts those down and makes some adjustments to raise that BABIP, he'll be really good, and good enough to be brought up as a 1B/DH only type.

 

Either way, we have a couple more years to make that call.

AAA Is filled with guys good enough, or almost good enough, to pitch in the majors. Drastic difference in pitching. I'd rather they push him up, and he face these guys, than the occasional great prospect in AA.

[Mr. Brooks]

Hasn't he broke out already? He is in most peoples top 10 already

I'd guess for the purposes of this article, anyone outside the top 100 has yet to break out.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Maybe we can attribute Rooker's strikeout rate to the jump from rookie to high A ball.
 

 There's definitely something to that. His K rate seems to go pretty absurd for a couple weeks as he hits a new level. That's been par for the course with him in his short minor league career. I would expect something similar in AAA as well as MLB. 

[nicksaviking]

 

 There's definitely something to that. His K rate seems to go pretty absurd for a couple weeks as he hits a new level. That's been par for the course with him in his short minor league career. I would expect something similar in AAA as well as MLB. 

 

While he's in Rochester, perhaps he can advise Nick Gordon how to shorten those level-jumping speed bumps to only a few weeks.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

While he's in Rochester, perhaps he can advise Nick Gordon how to shorten those level-jumping speed bumps to only a few weeks.

I'm really hoping that Gordon's second half issues were a big reason why we now have new strength and conditioning coaches... 

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm really hoping that Gordon's second half issues were a big reason why we now have new strength and conditioning coaches... 

 

I've got a list of players that I'm hopeful they were brought in to improve. Gordon is near the top for sure.