Election 2018

[PseudoSABR]

Time for a new thread.

 

Here's some (overtly optimistic) predictions and things to look for tomorrow.

• Gillum wins by double digits for FL Governor
• Kemp wins in GA by narrow margin, as new voter suppression stories emerge
• Beto wins in recount triggering fashion for Texas Senate seat.
• Democrats win Senate seats in close victories in AZ, FL, IN, MO, MT, NV.
• Republicans manage victories in TN and ND, but if my math is right, the Democrats still gain control (it may not be).  
• Democrats gain control of the house by more than two dozen. 
• Tomorrow, there will be stories of violence, arrest, fraud, and suppression. Some will be true, many will not be.   

[Mike Sixel]

Good idea on a new thread. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

Good idea on a new thread. 

I know you have an opinion how things will turn out tomorrow.  Have any predictions? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I know you have an opinion how things will turn out tomorrow.  Have any predictions? 

 

I think Dems will take control of the House by 12-20 seats. I think they will make gains at the state level, but not as much as I'd hope.

 

I have no idea what will happen in the Senate. I suppose I could go to 538 and check....brb.....

[Badsmerf]

I will be shocked if Beto wins. I think heitkamp has a better chance than him. I'd love to see Steve King get beat, Jason Lewis get beat, Scott Walker get beat, Gillum to win. The house is going blue, the Senate has a shot. I'm interested to see voter turnout, especially young voters. Supposedly they're expecting more young voters than ever before. That could make the results swing even more.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, that was depressing on 538.....at least in terms of the Senate....

[PseudoSABR]

 

Well, that was depressing on 538.....at least in terms of the Senate....

Yup. Everything has to go right in AZ, FL, IN, MO, MT, NV and then they need to win one of ND, TN, TX (which are polling at Republican victories by more than six percent, though a favorable poll now and again). My personal take is that young people turn out in spades and turn out is overwhelming across all demographics; so the polls are wrong, even if pretty favorable.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I will be shocked if Beto wins. I think heitkamp has a better chance than him. I'd love to see Steve King get beat, Jason Lewis get beat, Scott Walker get beat, Gillum to win. The house is going blue, the Senate has a shot. I'm interested to see voter turnout, especially young voters. Supposedly they're expecting more young voters than ever before. That could make the results swing even more.

Scott Walker. He's had an absurd level of longevity for far too long. So shamelessly bought and paid for. 

[stringer bell]

There are four really close House elections in Minnesota. The current chalk is that the two incumbent Republicans lose while the two vacant Democratic seats flip to the GOP. Overachieving for either party would be a 3-1 advantage in those four races. 4-0 would mean something really connected with the voters. I think Feehan edges Hagedorn on the way to a very good day for Democrats. I think the best they can hope for nationally is a 50-50 split in the Senate and control of the House.

 

 

The key elections are for state legislatures and governorships. Fair lines in future elections are at stake.

[Mr. Brooks]

Voter suppression in full force:

 

"U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced Monday evening that U.S. Border Patrol agents "will be conducting a crowd control exercise" in El Paso on Tuesday, Election Day. El Paso is Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Beto O'Rourke's home and political base — he held his final rally there Monday night — and the "mobile field force demonstration" will start at 10 a.m. between El Paso's primarily Latino Chihuahuita neighborhood and that neighborhood's designated polling location, about half a mile away, Texas Monthly reports."

[Squirrel]

I’m currently in Florida. It’s really hard to tell what will happen here. My mom supported Grahm in the primary, but happily voted for Gillem. Rick Scott is just awful so I hope he goes down.

 

If the Dems win big, I think your predictions of violence will ring true. If they lose big, I think we will still see violence, from the same people, as a confirmation of their ‘power’ over others.

[Badsmerf]

Voter suppression in full force:

 

"U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced Monday evening that U.S. Border Patrol agents "will be conducting a crowd control exercise" in El Paso on Tuesday, Election Day. El Paso is Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Beto O'Rourke's home and political base — he held his final rally there Monday night — and the "mobile field force demonstration" will start at 10 a.m. between El Paso's primarily Latino Chihuahuita neighborhood and that neighborhood's designated polling location, about half a mile away, Texas Monthly reports."

Other than attempting to suppress the vote, why would they do exercises on election day? That is the oldest page in the book. Hopefully voters are not intimidated.

[Mr. Brooks]

The President of our country is using armed government agents to blatantly suppress opposition voters, and somehow it's not front and center on every news outlet in the country. I had to find it buried in a local news feed.

He does so many outrageous things that we're desensitized to stuff like this. And this is exactly the type of tactics that people like Hitler and Mussolini used to gain complete control.

Every time something like this goes unchecked, I become more and more convinced that we are seeing the beginning stages of a ruthless dictatorship.

[Seth Stohs]

I voted. Felt good to vote some red, some blue and actually think about who to vote for, or against. 

 

[stringer bell]

I’ve not been a member of either party, although I’ve always voted for more Democrats than Republicans. I will not vote for anyone that enables Donald Trump, which is basically the entire Republican Party.

 

Trump’s policies are not good for this country and deny science and logic. His behavior is reprehensible and encourages the worst in his followers. We must limit this man starting today and then reject him in 2020.

[Vanimal46]

I will be shocked if Beto wins. I think heitkamp has a better chance than him. I'd love to see Steve King get beat, Jason Lewis get beat, Scott Walker get beat, Gillum to win. The house is going blue, the Senate has a shot. I'm interested to see voter turnout, especially young voters. Supposedly they're expecting more young voters than ever before. That could make the results swing even more.

I hold out hope for Beto... It's a tough hill to climb for a Democrat in TX.

[Vanimal46]

I do think if Beto can't win the Senate race, he is young, charismatic, and compelling to make a run for President in 2020.

[gunnarthor]

It's going to depend on turnout. If turnout is high, I think the Dems will role. If turnout isn't, then  ....

 

 

I'm praying that they win both the house and senate and I'll stay with that until the elections are over.

[Squirrel]

I’m currently in Florida. It’s really hard to tell what will happen here. My mom supported Grahm in the primary, but happily voted for Gillem. Rick Scott is just awful so I hope he goes down.

If the Dems win big, I think your predictions of violence will ring true. If they lose big, I think we will still see violence, from the same people, as a confirmation of their ‘power’ over others.

I got these races mixed up. I still want Gillum to win, but his opponent is DeSantis, not Scott. And I still want Scott to go down who is running for the Senate against the incumbent Democrat Nelson.

 

Both races are very close. DeSantis is a big Trump guy and Scott is a Trump clone ... wealthy liar and all around evil human being.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I refuse to expect any good news until I'm punched in the face with it.

[Squirrel]

I refuse to expect any good news until I'm punched in the face with it.

I feel like I’ll be punched in the face either way.

[Badsmerf]

I voted Republican for our state secretary. He did do a voter id law, but you are automatically sent a state issued card for registering. He stood up to Trump admin about giving away identities, and his opposition didn't seem competent at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I voted Republican for our state secretary. He did do a voter id law, but you are automatically sent a state issued card for registering. He stood up to Trump admin about giving away identities, and his opposition didn't seem competent at all.

I was wondering about this ballot but didn't feel strongly enough either way to sway me away from my (recent) anti-Republican ways.

 

Oh, how I remember the days when I used to split tickets almost every election...

[gunnarthor]

 

I was wondering about this ballot but didn't feel strongly enough either way to sway me away from my (recent) anti-Republican ways.

 

Oh, how I remember the days when I used to split tickets almost every election...

Yep, complete Dem ballot for me this year. First time since 2008.

[Squirrel]

When I did research on some city offices, every green candidate had the exact same blurb. ‘As a Green Party candidate I support ... ‘ Okay, granted, not a high profile office but you couldn’t write something more personal than copying and pasting? I try to find other candidates to vote for, but there rarely are any. Even my state rep and senator were unopposed but I am in a very dense Democratic ward and precinct.

[Badsmerf]

I was wondering about this ballot but didn't feel strongly enough either way to sway me away from my (recent) anti-Republican ways.

 

Oh, how I remember the days when I used to split tickets almost every election...

Remember I'm in Iowa

[LaBombo]

 

The President of our country is using armed government agents to blatantly suppress opposition voters, and somehow it's not front and center on every news outlet in the country. I had to find it buried in a local news feed.
He does so many outrageous things that we're desensitized to stuff like this. And this is exactly the type of tactics that people like Hitler and Mussolini used to gain complete control.
Every time something like this goes unchecked, I become more and more convinced that we are seeing the beginning stages of a ruthless dictatorship.

 

Cancelled. TX Sec. of State and El Paso native Rolando Pablos had already investigated the matter and determined that the intent of the exercise did not present an issue with regard to voting, but CBP rescheduled the exercise anyway.

 

To save everyone the trouble of googling his party affiliation, yes, Pablos is a Republican, so feel free to disregard his assessment of the situation as more 'bad guys' chicanery.

[ashbury]

Walking in downtown Phoenix this morning, I overheard a conversation between two women, one of whom said her vote-by-mail ballot never arrived. I was forward enough to say that she was the second such person I had heard such a thing about in the past 24 hours, and asked which party registration if she didn't mind saying. Democratic, same as the other person I heard. Some coincidence.

[Mr. Brooks]

Cancelled. TX Sec. of State and El Paso native Rolando Pablos had already investigated the matter and determined that the intent of the exercise did not present an issue with regard to voting, but CBP rescheduled the exercise anyway.

 

To save everyone the trouble of googling his party affiliation, yes, Pablos is a Republican, so feel free to disregard his assessment of the situation as more "Nazi" chicanery.

We're supposed to believe it's a complete coincidence that it was on Election day, and was to take place near a polling station in a densely minority neighborhood?

 

I mean, you can believe that if you want to, but I don't.

[Squirrel]

Walking in downtown Phoenix this morning, I overheard a conversation between two women, one of whom said her vote-by-mail ballot never arrived. I was forward enough to say that she was the second such person I had heard such a thing about in the past 24 hours, and asked which party registration if she didn't mind saying. Democratic, same as the other person I heard. Some coincidence.

If you hear such a thing again, suggest they go to their polling place, if they can, and ask for a provisional ballot.