2018 MLB Postseason Discussion Thread

[ashbury]

Who will win the mvp?

I'll guess Price.

[Squirrel]

I'll guess Price.

Is my guess, too ... but we’ll see soon.

[ashbury]

I like the choice of Pearce, though.

[Squirrel]

We were both wrong ... Steve Pearce would have been my next choice.

[mickeymental]

when do pitchers and catchers report?

[Vanimal46]

Overall this WS was anticlimactic and predictable. Hope it's better next year.

[ashbury]

Overall this WS was anticlimactic and predictable.

Perhaps at a high level. Watching balls and strikes, I found games 4 and 5 very compelling. That 18-inning affair put a very different perspective on everything that came after. The entire WS felt like it hung in the balance for a few innings there every inning on Saturday in game 4.

 

If you missed seeing Eduardo Rodriguez slam his glove to the ground, in real-time and not replay, after having pitched his heart out for five-plus good innings prior, you missed a lot. And then... the game took some further dramatic turns.

 

I'm sure I could go back and dig up mediocre 7-game Series. This was a really good 5-gamer.

[USAFChief]

 

Overall this WS was anticlimactic and predictable. Hope it's better next year.

When Rocco leads the Twins to the 2019 WS, I promise you nobody will have predicted it. 

 

Can't believe it'd be anticlimactic, either, but that one's not as clear. I guess if the Twins win in five, we'll just have to live with it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Perhaps at a high level. Watching balls and strikes, I found games 4 and 5 very compelling. That 18-inning affair put a very different perspective on everything that came after. The entire WS felt like it hung in the balance for a few innings there every inning on Saturday in game 4.

 

If you missed seeing Eduardo Rodriguez slam his glove to the ground, in real-time and not replay, after having pitched his heart out for five-plus good innings prior, you missed a lot. And then... the game took some further dramatic turns.

 

I'm sure I could go back and dig up mediocre 7-game Series. This was a really good 5-gamer.

It definitely could have been worse. But I would have liked to see the Dodgers put up more fight -- they were pretty punchless the last 2 innings of game 1 (after the Nunez HR), and the last 5 innings of game 2 (last 16 batters went in order, when 1 baserunner would have at least brought the tying run to the plate).

 

Game 3 was obviously a classic, and that probably redeems the series enough historically over most other 5-gamers, although it was a bit difficult to fully digest given the extreme length! Game 4 was pretty good but it got rather sloppy in the 9th, and of course the end result was putting the Red Sox in a commanding 3-1 series lead and game 5 played out rather predictably after that.

 

Dodgers batted .180/.249/.302, .550 OPS for the series, and too often it didn't feel like it was because the Red Sox were pitching well. Other than Turner and Freese (and that one AB from Puig), it was frequently painful to watch them bat. Felt like I was watching the Gardy-era playoff Twins at times.

 

Although Machado's heel turn softened the convincing Red Sox victory a bit.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Twins W-L record vs Boston in 2018: 3-1

 

(pre-trades)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

BoSaux in 5

winner!

 

Come get your pat on the back

[Nine of twelve]

 

when do pitchers and catchers report?

This. Every year has two seasons: Baseball Season, and Waiting for Baseball Season.

[USAFChief]

 

This. Every year has two seasons: Baseball Season, and Waiting for Baseball Season.

Or in Twins Territory: "Maybe Next Year," and "Waiting for Maybe Next Year."

[ashbury]

Or in Twins Territory: "Maybe Next Year," and "Waiting for Maybe Next Year."

You said that last year.

[USAFChief]

 

You said that last year.

False.

 

I said it next year.

[TheLeviathan]

Well...this isn't good news.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well...this isn't good news.

Did you read Yahoo's source artice (from Variety)? Sure sounds like this year's ratings "drop" is entirely due to the shorter series and increased streaming:

 

https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/world-series-ratings-2018-1202994171/

 

On Fox Sports streaming platforms, Game 5 was the fourth-most-streamed game in World Series history, garnering an average-minute audience of 240,000. That is up 40% from 2017’s Game 5 , which averaged 172,000. And while this year’s series was only five games, the overall average-minute audience of 198,000 is up 9% from 2017’s seven-game average of 182,000.

[Mr. Brooks]

Did you read Yahoo's source artice (from Variety)? Sure sounds like this year's ratings "drop" is entirely due to the shorter series and increased streaming:

 

https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/world-series-ratings-2018-1202994171/

 

 

These are averages, so the number of games doesn't matter.

 

20,000 extra streamers doesn't make up for 4 million fewer television viewers. So unless there is more still that I'm missing, viewership is defintely way down.

[Vanimal46]

This WS was a dud and the ratings show it. I heard on the radio this morning this WS was down 40% from the year the Cubs won it.

 

I agree with the reasoning in the Yahoo article. The narratives weren't compelling, and MLB didn't counter back with fans complaining that the game is broken and needs to be fixed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

These are averages, so the number of games doesn't matter.

 

Well, it can, if games 6 and 7 generally draw more viewers, which would increase the average. (EDIT TO ADD: Here's a link that says the overall series viewership is down 25% from 2017 -- but just down 14% based on the first 5 games: http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2018/10/world-series-ratings-decline-third-lowest/ )

 

I got hung up on this line a bit: "the overall average-minute audience of 198,000 is up 9% from 2017’s seven-game average of 182,000." But it's in the paragraph about streaming, so maybe that is just streaming numbers?

 

But, a drop from 2016 and 2017 isn't a great barometer of anything, because 2016 and 2017 were recent high points. An average of 14.3 million viewers puts 2018 right in line with 2008, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015, according to this chart:

 

 

We all know modern TV ratings are down for all kinds of things, including MLB. There's nothing in this 2018 data that suggests MLB's ratings are continuing to sink lower, much less sinking lower at a faster rate than other programming.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here's another take:

 

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2018/10/world-series-ratings-decline-third-lowest/

 

They seem to be surprised and sounding a bit of an alarm, but again it seems they were expecting higher based on 2016 and 2017. They say "among the lowest on record" but it's ahead of 2012 and 2014 by ratings, and as I mentioned before, right in line with those years and others since 2008 in numbers of viewers.

[TheLeviathan]

Considering you had two of hte largest markets, with the most heavily marketed franchises....I don't know how you possibly spin those ratings numbers as a good thing or even neutral.  It may not be time to sound alarms, but it damn sure isn't good news.

 

Down 14 or 25 or 40 is still down by a significant margin.  Now all you're doing is arguing adjectives and missing the larger point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Considering you had two of hte largest markets, with the most heavily marketed franchises....I don't know how you possibly spin those ratings numbers as a good thing or even neutral.  It may not be time to sound alarms, but it damn sure isn't good news.

 

Down 14 or 25 or 40 is still down by a significant margin.  Now all you're doing is arguing adjectives and missing the larger point.

2016 was pretty special because of the epic Cubs situation, and I think 2017 benefitted from that tailwind boost. Those clearly seem to be the outliers. If you check the graph I posted above, there's nothing unusual about 2018 in the context of 2008-2015.

 

The modern media landscape is very different now than it was before. I'm not convinced TV ratings are particularly meaningful for judging much of anything anymore, particularly for sports programming. I know you believe that these ratings are another example of baseball failing to gain young fans which portends doom for the sport, but there's a whole host of other factors at play with these ratings that make it pretty difficult to demonstrate that connection.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another thing worth noting is that the Dodgers, while they are in a large market, have notably cut off many viewers in that market with their exclusive local TV deal since 2014. Many LA viewers have probably learned to live without watching them, or have found alternate means to do so. Maybe that keeps them from achieving the NY/BOS/CHC "large market" cachet in terms of 2018 TV ratings?

 

Plus the series was less competitive than 2017 -- the Dodgers came home down 2 games to zero, as pretty large underdogs by that point, and didn't climb back much. Aren't Dodger fans notorious for showing up late, and leaving early anyway?

[Vanimal46]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/those-disastrous-world-series-tv-ratings/

[TheLeviathan]

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/those-disastrous-world-series-tv-ratings/

 

Right and NBA and NFL ratings (while slightly down) do not mimic the same trends.  They have dipped with general ratings, but not by the same body blows MLB has endured.

 

Being down 14% from last year (which is the rosiest spin on this presented yet) is still not good.  This isn't losing joe schmo who turns on the TV and says "Oh...sure, baseball!" - you're starting to cut into the number of baseball fans willing to watch.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/those-disastrous-world-series-tv-ratings/

Thanks. Note this passage from Fangraphs, which is pretty much exactly what I've been saying here:

 

 

On the other, the ratings appear to have stabilized over the past decade or so, with the obvious exceptions of 2016 and 2017 — seasons which featured (a) two clubs attempting to break long droughts and then ( seven of the most exciting games in World Series history, respectively. If there is any disappointment over this year’s ratings, it’s probably due to the high expectations created by the previous two years.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Being down 14% from last year (which is the rosiest spin on this presented yet) is still not good.  This isn't losing joe schmo who turns on the TV and says "Oh...sure, baseball!" - you're starting to cut into the number of baseball fans willing to watch.

First of all, comparing a 5 game series to the first 5 games of last year's series is hardly "rosy spin" -- it's actually a more proper comparison than comparing a straight average from a 5 gamer and a 7 gamer. And of course, more proper would be to use more than a couple years of data, if you have it.

 

And looking at the data beyond the last 2 years, yes, it could be correct to say that 2018 just lost Joe Schmo who turned off his TV from baseball way back in 2008 and later turned it back on for 2016-2017. Could still be disappointing in some contexts, but particularly bad/unexpected news.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Right and NBA and NFL ratings (while slightly down) do not mimic the same trends.  They have dipped with general ratings, but not by the same body blows MLB has endured.

Do you know of any good resources for that comparison? Particularly historical trends (over a number of years), not smaller sample year-to-year shifts that are prone to stuff like the 2015-2018 MLB numbers. I'd be curious to see it.

 

I don't think it's particularly a problem for MLB to be 3rd in that race anyway. Just due to the nature of the sport (longer season/series, local focus), I'd only expect it to be #2 at best (behind the NFL). And the NBA is no slouch either, plus pro basketball and football both have pretty compelling feeder leagues (colleges). I don't imagine the data is anywhere near severe or conclusive enough to suggest MLB will soon be trailing the NHL or MLS or whatever in US national TV ratings.

[Vanimal46]

Remaining stagnant probably isn't the best course of action either.