Reusse's suggestion for the 2019 Twins Marketing Slogan

[mazeville]

 

Except that's not how it works.

 

You can't just bank 85 wins from one season, sprinkle in some players you hope will be okay, expect young players to just continue getting better (cause progression for young ball players is not linear) and then say there's 90 or more wins the next season. Just doesn't work that way.  

 

1.  Got to truly evaluate the team and wonder if we got lucky to win that many games based on the talent we had.  Did we expect to win 85 games after the amount we won the year before?

2.  Have to remember while we are working to improve our team in the offseason, so are other teams.

3.  Remember other teams might have under-performed their talent and don't just expect them to do it again.

4.  Remember other teams might have young players also expecting to take the next step.

5.  Remember other teams might have quality players coming back from injury.

6.  Remember we had quality players who, before the season started, we KNEW we weren't going to have for a good chunk of time.

7. And probably many, MANY other things that could be mentioned if I had more time.

 

In other words, our attempt to improve our team doesn't happen while every other team stands pat and does nothing. 

 

IMO, you have to forget last year's record completely.  It means nothing. Have to first start with comparing your rotation to other teams' rotations, cause MOST (not all) of the time, true contenders have truly good/great rotations.  Second, compare position players to the best team in your division and the other truly good/great teams in the AL.  Third compare relief corp too.  Four, compare depth in pitching staff and position players, both on the active roster and MLB ready in the minors.

 

It's just not as easy as saying, well, we had 85 wins, grabbed some players, and all of our young guys are just going to keep improving.  WAAAAY too many other things to consider.

 

Oh for crying out loud. 

 

My point, because you apparently can't figure that out, is that improvement off of last year was perfectly reasonable and, frankly, expected. 

 

But apparently I have to point all of this stuff out based on your points above ...

 

1. The Twins had loads of talent last year with definite question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen, but those question marks were allegedly addressed with the acquisitions of Rodney, Reed, Lynn and Odorizzi. But they had solid position players, a potential superstar in Byron Buxton and strong potential from Eddie Rosario (who realized it to a degree) and Max Kepler (who hasn't); an all star in Brian Dozier, another all star in Miguel Sano; an on-base machine in Joe Mauer, etc. It had two gold glovers and another in Mauer who should have won. It was a talented team. 

 

2. Well, thank you for that obvious point. Except you apparently paid almost no attention to the free agent market. The Twins had one of the best offseasons in the game outside of the injury to Santana and Sano.

 

3. And yet there are still like just five good teams in the American League. There is only one team in the AL Central with a winning record.

 

4. Sure. But the Twins not that long ago had one of the top farm systems in the game. This team was supposed to be a contender at this point. What did we get for all of those 90-loss seasons?

 

5. Who? Which teams had players coming back from injury that turned it around? Where are all of these super competitive teams outside of New York, Boston, Cleveland, Oakland and Houston? Where? 

 

6. Well, sure. But we were told Santana would be back by May. Other than that I don't know what other injuries you're talking about. Polanco? That's part of the problem and the Twins had the depth to deal with it thanks to Eduardo Escobar.

 

7. Yeah sure.

 

The point is not remotely that the teams "bank wins" or anything like that. I knew full well in spring training that this team was in serious danger of disappointing. 

 

The point is that improvement STILL should have been expected. At the very least they should have matched last year's performance. But this was a young team that made the playoffs last year and added a bunch of players to the roster who should have made improvements. 

 

Does that guarantee the playoffs? Of course not.

 

But this team was only 7 games out at the trade deadline, after which the front office (rightly, in my opinion) traded away a bunch of soon-to-be free agents. And that happened in a year in which many of those free agents disappointed while the two players we've been told for years would be among the top players in the game by now were sent to the minors as much for performance as anything. 

 

Oh, and they have a terrible record in one-run losses. They were 4-16 in those games in early July. If they simply had a .500 record in those games (not unreasonable), they are one game out of first place by the trade deadline and are probably adding, rather than subtracting.

 

So don't tell me that this team couldn't contend.

 

[ashbury]

Moderator's note: The tone is getting excessively personal. Please stick to the topic and leave out the digs.

[Vanimal46]

The American Express commercial scene in Major League could be remade by the Twins in 2019...

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FTrHBRfTHwE

[Mike Sixel]

Yeah, most prospect ratings I saw have seen Gonsalves as a solid high floor back of the rotation starter who maybe had the potential to be a solid #3 or #2 if he adjusted well to the pros. BTW, none of that has changed based on two starts. He doesn't have the ceiling of Berrios but he certainly isn't done. I've seen way too much freaking out about him. Let him adjust over this last month.

Really? KLAW and fangraphs don't seem that high on him, unless something has changed which is possible.

[alarp33]

 

Really? KLAW and fangraphs don't seem that high on him, unless something has changed which is possible.

 

I think back end of rotation is fair, but yeah I agree I haven't seen many say he can be a #2 starter (#3 is probably a stretch as well)

[Doomtints]

I lived in Texas in the 90s and 00s.

 

What we saw this year with the Twins is what the Rangers went through every year, especially with pitching.

 

Enjoy the ride....

[Doomtints]

Here's what I said from the tail end of last year all through the offseason:

 

1) Last year was a down year for the AL. Every team over .500 made the playoffs. There was a great danger in believing the Twins were better than they actually were. The Twins were not going to finish .500 again without a huge improvement.

 

2) The Twins built their pitching to match up against Cleveland but ignored everyone else. This would have been fine if the Twins were closer than they actually were. Having done this, the Twins record today is actually rather impressive, being as one dimensional as they became.

 

3) The organization has to stop treating certain players like outcasts. Sano, Vargas, Garver. The team has to be the supportive, inclusive family they claim they are or they need to stfu about it. These players will struggle as long as the team treats them with disrespect. Sano stumbled mightily in his personal life and the team apparently wasn't there for him to recover and be productive.

 

4) Signing Logan Morrison? Oddly I sense that many around here still buy into this one. He performed as I expected him to perform.

 

5) Pursuing Yu Darvish? I said all along he is too injury prone. The Twins dodged a bullet, but they could have used that time to sign Lance Lynn two months earlier and have Lynn be ready to start the season.

6) Thinking the young ones were "there" when they weren't (Buxton) is a mistake. They have to keep working on him, not just hope for the best.

 

7) Molitor isn't management material. He's PR material. He can't fill out a lineup card properly. He can't manage the bullpen. But hey, he's a local, he has nice sideburns, and he's nice to the press.

 

The Twins had little control over Santana, Castro, and Polanco, but Castro was a mistake too, he's just a mistake from a year prior.

 

Pineda? He might be good next year. But the Twins needed resources this year.

[twinssporto]

 

Oh for crying out loud. 

 

My point, because you apparently can't figure that out, is that improvement off of last year was perfectly reasonable and, frankly, expected. 

 

But apparently I have to point all of this stuff out based on your points above ...

 

1. The Twins had loads of talent last year with definite question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen, but those question marks were allegedly addressed with the acquisitions of Rodney, Reed, Lynn and Odorizzi. But they had solid position players, a potential superstar in Byron Buxton and strong potential from Eddie Rosario (who realized it to a degree) and Max Kepler (who hasn't); an all star in Brian Dozier, another all star in Miguel Sano; an on-base machine in Joe Mauer, etc. It had two gold glovers and another in Mauer who should have won. It was a talented team. 

 

2. Well, thank you for that obvious point. Except you apparently paid almost no attention to the free agent market. The Twins had one of the best offseasons in the game outside of the injury to Santana and Sano.

 

3. And yet there are still like just five good teams in the American League. There is only one team in the AL Central with a winning record.

 

4. Sure. But the Twins not that long ago had one of the top farm systems in the game. This team was supposed to be a contender at this point. What did we get for all of those 90-loss seasons?

 

5. Who? Which teams had players coming back from injury that turned it around? Where are all of these super competitive teams outside of New York, Boston, Cleveland, Oakland and Houston? Where? 

 

6. Well, sure. But we were told Santana would be back by May. Other than that I don't know what other injuries you're talking about. Polanco? That's part of the problem and the Twins had the depth to deal with it thanks to Eduardo Escobar.

 

7. Yeah sure.

 

The point is not remotely that the teams "bank wins" or anything like that. I knew full well in spring training that this team was in serious danger of disappointing. 

 

The point is that improvement STILL should have been expected. At the very least they should have matched last year's performance. But this was a young team that made the playoffs last year and added a bunch of players to the roster who should have made improvements. 

 

Does that guarantee the playoffs? Of course not.

 

But this team was only 7 games out at the trade deadline, after which the front office (rightly, in my opinion) traded away a bunch of soon-to-be free agents. And that happened in a year in which many of those free agents disappointed while the two players we've been told for years would be among the top players in the game by now were sent to the minors as much for performance as anything. 

 

Oh, and they have a terrible record in one-run losses. They were 4-16 in those games in early July. If they simply had a .500 record in those games (not unreasonable), they are one game out of first place by the trade deadline and are probably adding, rather than subtracting.

 

So don't tell me that this team couldn't contend.

You forgot point #8 though...Injuries can make teams less competitive.  Sano, Castro, Buxton, Santana.  Suspended Polanco.  That's a huge part of last years team.  Next year will be better.  I hope...

[ewen21]

 

Based on the efforts of some of the "heralded" minor leagers that were brought up this year and years past, seems like some mental counseling is needed by these players. Granted, this IS the MAJORS yet it seems like there is a lack of composure, a lack of toughness, a lack of prep by these players. They are making the biggest step in their professional careers - how about some added support for them from: coaches, former players, current players amd some mental health professionals to prepare them so they don't step out with the YIPPS.

If you look at Tyler Austin and Jake Cave they carry themselves differently.

 

There is something to be said for the mindset of our young players.  Buxton, for example, strikes me as a guy entrenched in the apprentice mindset.  If he can hit .200 and run all over the place that is just grand

 

 

[ewen21]

This stuff about Buxton, Sano and Casto being injured.  OK.

So what?  They were terrrible when they weren't injured!

Can't even listen to the injury excuse.

[gil4]

 

This stuff about Buxton, Sano and Casto being injured.  OK.

So what?  They were terrrible when they weren't injured!

Can't even listen to the injury excuse.

Sano was an all-star before he got injured.  Yes, he played earlier in the year, but I still think a lot of his struggles were due to not having a solid foundation. Hopefully an off-season of rehab will bring back to old Sano.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sano was an all-star before he got injured.

Sano's performance had already tailed off severely by the time of his injury in 2017 -- .750 OPS, 95 wRC+ from June 10 until he went on the DL on August 19. His all star performance was simply unsustainable without an improvement in that 35% K rate.

[mazeville]

 

You forgot point #8 though...Injuries can make teams less competitive.  Sano, Castro, Buxton, Santana.  Suspended Polanco.  That's a huge part of last years team.  Next year will be better.  I hope...

 

Yeah. People forget that this team lost five starters for a fat chunk of the year due to injury or suspension. 

 

I believe, quite strongly in fact, that they have the tools to contend next year. Might not look like it now, but if Buxton is healthy and hitting and Sano plays better this is a much different team. 

[ewen21]

I get the whole injuries excuse, but can we be real?

Erv is 35 years old.  How much should we have reasonably expected?

 

Now let's get real.  Buxton, Sano and Castro were all terrible when they played.  What if all three did not get injured and played every day.  Castro would probably be hitting around .200, and Buxton?  Maybe he just isn't a major league bat.  He got hot at the end of last year, but then lot's of players have had spurts.  Not sure that run at the end of last year says more to me than the beginning of the last few seasons.  Maybe he is going to be one of those injury plagued guys who just never puts it together?  It happens and as a Twins fan it is very concerning to watch his regression.  And Sano came into camp fat.  There were red flags everywhere with him before the season started.  He needed to do conditioning DURING the season because he didn't when he was supposed to.  THat isn't bad luck

 

The problem I have with Buxton and Sano is they don't seem to learn.  THe Twins have done a poor job developing players for a long time.  We might not like it and Reusse might be a curmudgeon, but this article is entirely fair.  Sick of the excuses.  Injuries were not so much the cause of this terrible season as much as it was young players like Kepler, Sano and Buxton regressing and vets like Dozier and MOrrison doing nothing

[jimmer]

 

You forgot point #8 though...Injuries can make teams less competitive.  Sano, Castro, Buxton, Santana.  Suspended Polanco.  That's a huge part of last years team.  Next year will be better.  I hope...

So, I'm guessing you aren't going to predict the Twins win the division in 2019 like you predicted they would this year? :-)

[twinssporto]

 

So, I'm guessing you aren't going to predict the Twins win the division in 2019 like you predicted they would this year? :-)

Jimmy - you got that right!!!  

 

I shoulda said "barring injuries"  I will admit and eat crow for the errors in my predictions.  

 

Sad really, this team should have at least been competitive this year.  

[jimmer]

Jimmy - you got that right!!!

 

I shoulda said "barring injuries" I will admit and eat crow for the errors in my predictions.

 

Sad really, this team should have at least been competitive this year.

if everyone had to eat crow after a bad prediction, then almost all of us would be eating crow on a regular basis ;-)

[Ncgo4]

I hate phat Pat, always have, always will. But what I really hate is having to say that this column was dead on accurate. In addition it was well written and somewhat amusing. Well done Mr. Reusse. Nuts, but I had to do it!

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I’m curious how you know how the Twins value Gonsalves, or know that other teams saw him as a highly valuable prospect?

 

Should be worth a good ballplayer on a rental, or a controllable reliever with really good stuff right? Or do we only give away players like that for those types of returns? He's a top 10 prospect in our system, which is supposed to be highly thought of. Or at least that is what I have been told? 

 

 

[mngopherguy]

 

I guess I am failing to see the point of this article. Buxton and Sano have had disaster seasons? Ok... what exactly does that have to do with Falvey / Levine? Last I checked they didn't draft or sign either. 

 

Bottom of roster has shuffled a lot in a terrible season? Sure, which team in the major hasn't had this? Anyone drawing a conclusion about Falvey / Levine based on how many innings Belisle or Hale pitched this year has an axe to grand for no reason. 

 

I don't expect more from Reusse at this point, it's a lazy article meant to troll.  Soon he'll focus his attention on tearing down PJ Fleck and all the good things he is doing. 

 

I wish I could like this 100 times.  Lazy trolling journalist=Reusse to a T.

 

 

[mngopherguy]

 

Until PJ starts winning Big Ten games he's just Tim Brewster reincarnated.

 

This is so far from the truth it's almost hilarious.  They are nothing close to the same from experience, track records, or how the programs are run.  

[mngopherguy]

 

Great analysis, thanks for chiming in. PJ Fleck coached in a Cotton Bowl 2 years ago, Tim Brewster was a tight ends coach before Maturi hired him. But other than that you nailed it

 

FWIW I was talking about Reusse mocking the good that Fleck is doing in the community, and his "Row the Boat" mantra, which was created to honor his dead son. 

 

Again wish I could like this 100 times.  

[mngopherguy]

 

try homemade pork chop on a stick: mmm mmm mmm.

 

Don't forget St. Peter's North Dakota night.....

[mngopherguy]

 

Lot's of teams lose players to injury - like an Aaron Judge or have a player not perform like a Yu Darvish.  This is part of baseball.  Responding to it is what makes a FO.  What else are we paying them for?

 

Comparing the Twins to the Yankees and Cubs?  The level of support and resources from the ownership is completely different.

[mikelink45]

 

Comparing the Twins to the Yankees and Cubs?  The level of support and resources from the ownership is completely different.

I believe we are in the same major leagues.  Despite other differences the Twins need to do what they can with their resources which are not as limited as everyone wants to believe.  We had three World Series teams and two winners between the Chicago Cubs appearances in the WS. 

[mngopherguy]

 

It doesn't matter where PJ or Brewster came from, they were both hired as head coach of the Gophers. 

 

At this point PJ sounds just like the snake oil salesman Brewster, until PJ wins some Big Ten games and differentiates himself from Brewster, he's Brewster reincarnated.   I can't stand listening to him.  Until he starts winning its all talk and bluster. 

 

I hope Ruesse and other columnists do hold his feet to the fire.  And lets face it, most columnists write controversial articles so they DO get read.

 

 

Then you haven't paid attention at all.  They are opposites.  MOcking a guy and his dead son is not holding anyone's feet to the fire.  It should be a fireable offense for a supposed professional writer of a newspaper.  

[mngopherguy]

 

Reusse is not a person we should listen to. We should know that by now.

 

This Twins team is going to absolutely be competitive:

 

* Things can’t go as wrong as they did this year (knock on wood). Sano and Buxton going down to the minors, Polanco missing ½ the season, Castro missing all but a month, Logan Morrison being injured/bad, Lance Lynn sucking for six weeks, Santana starting only a handful of games – you tell Twins fans that before the season and say we’re in second in the division and we’d be overjoyed. That’s 2/5 of the rotation and five regular position players. No one except the elite teams survives that and even those teams probably fall apart. Next year almost has to be better. (And I didn't even mention Dozier being below replacement or Mauer missing a month with a concussion).

 

* The division will still be bad. The Indians are losing some pen arms but will still be good. Other than that you have the White Sox and the rebuilding Tigers and Royals (both of whom have terrible farm systems). The AL Central will be there for the Twins to compete.

 

* Money. The Twins shed a ton of payroll and Flavine have shown a desire to pursue free agents when they fit. They can pay to cover holes.

 

* And the Twins don’t have too many holes when you get down to it.

 

• The Outfield will likely be Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Cave, Austin to begin the year. That’s not bad, especially with Rooker coming up and AK a potential late season boost.
• Catching could be targeted if the right guy comes along (Grandal) but otherwise Castro and Garver seems like an above-average combination.
• Infield. Left side is relatively set with Sano and Polanco. Right side is more open but lots of 2B options and 1B will be Mauer or can be filled with Austin or a Logan Morrison type. Could use another utility option but Gordon lurks in the minors and is still young.
•  Starting pitching depth isn’t bad with Gibson, Berrios, Pineda, Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia, Odorizzi, Thorpe, Stewart. They could use a top-end addition and if that isn’t available, could go for a few smart reclamation projects (Santana wouldn’t be a bad option on a 1-year prove-it deal).
•  Relief pitching is a place the Twins could target but they have a solid 3-5 positions filled with May, Buesnitz, Reed, Rogers, Moya, Hildy, etc. They can target a top end option (Andrew Miller?) or go for some depth pieces.

So you’re looking at targeting catcher/starter if you get something nice but you don’t need to overpursue. A solid middle infielder is a must but the market is good for that so the Twins should be set. Flavine have shown a good handle on the reliever market so that should be doable. 1B/DH is a bit dicey but between Garver, Sano, Mauer, Austin, Rooker, and free agency, you should be okay.

 

I'm extremely optimistic for the 2019 Twins. I thought Flavine put together a great team in 2018 that just didn't work out. It happens. Even amidst that there were some great developments (Berrios, Gibby, Rosario, Kepler hitting lefties, Romero, Cave, beefing up the farm system at the deadline) and the Twins will have the financial flexibility to target the few holes they have.

 

I'm in Vegas for my anniversary in October. Can't wait to bet $20 on the Twins winning the series in 2019. Not super far-fetched. 

 

P.S. Stop listening to Reusse. He gets paid to appeal to the armchair fan. He's a blowhard. 

 

 

I don't agree with it all. but I thought this was a really good post.  

 

I still don't believe they will be given the amount of money being reported and that payroll will go down.  I hope I'll be eating crow regarding that.  I still believe the jury is still very much out of Buxton, Kepler, Polanco.  

 

I agree on Reusse, I haven't listened to him in 20 years because I know he lacks a lot of character.

[mngopherguy]

 

In the minors, he's averaged a home run every 19ish innings... I think you might want to give him a bit of time before writing him off. 

 

I wouldn't give up on him, but I've read some things over the past couple years that suggested to me he was more of a AAAA pitcher.  This is why I disagreed with anyone who was willing to deal Romero when he clearly is a much higher prospect.  

[mngopherguy]

 

If you look at Tyler Austin and Jake Cave they carry themselves differently.

 

There is something to be said for the mindset of our young players.  Buxton, for example, strikes me as a guy entrenched in the apprentice mindset.  If he can hit .200 and run all over the place that is just grand

 

 

I do love Buxton and for all my agreements with shutting him down, he is my favorite Twin.  I do agree with you as well, he has a different mindset, I don't see the confidence in how he goes about things.  I hope he finds it. 

 

 

[mngopherguy]

 

I believe we are in the same major leagues.  Despite other differences the Twins need to do what they can with their resources which are not as limited as everyone wants to believe.  We had three World Series teams and two winners between the Chicago Cubs appearances in the WS. 

 

And the dynamics and money in baseball has changed vastly since the Twins won their last World Series.  (Kirby Puckett, MLB's first 3 million dollar man during that time.)  If you think the Polad's spend and support this team close to as much as the other owners, we will never agree.  They care more about 52%, and I still contend the best way to improve this team is to get new owners.  Too bad that's not going to happen.

 

I'm bit surprised I haven't seen any posts on why they have the minimum 7 minor league affiliates while teams like the Yankees have 9.