Twins Claim Oliver Drake, Johnny Field

[jorgenswest]

If people could predict the success of minor league players accurately, there would be no bad trades. That's just not how the world works, not at all. Heck, they can't even accurately predict MLB all the time.

Winning teams will have staffs that have a much greater success rate at their projections. There just isn’t much that can be learned in a one or two month audition. Teams end up counting on guys like Parmelee and Danny Santana when the eyes of a skilled staff watching them in the minors should know their limitations.

 

I do believe there is value in a player “getting his feet wet” and having their eyes opened to the adjustments they will need to make as they transition from the minors.

 

I don’t believe that a skilled staff is going to learn anything significant in late season trial. Defending a position isn’t different. The strike zone isn’t different. Major leaguers will do a much better job of exposing weaknesses but a skilled staff better know about and be addressing those weaknesses long before the player hits the majors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

However, perhaps these guys have been on the radar of Falvine a while.

 

Also, there was no room on the Twins 40 man until the trade deadline purge a week ago.

 

Kickin tires...lots of variables in play we are completely blind to.

"No room on the Twins 40 man" while there is room for Belisle? Like there was room for LaMarre for half the season with Cave in AAA? Now Astudillo for no discernable purpose?

 

Did the Twins have David Hale on their radar for awhile too? Drew Rucinski? Chris Heston? I am sure the Twins FO is aware of their existence but I think it is a bit of a reach to apply any special meaning to their interest in these players.

[Riverbrian]

 

Yes, but you can't use their 2019 options until you commit to keeping them on the 40-man all winter.

 

True and by that time... Drake should either be cemented or completely out of the way. 

[Riverbrian]

 

I know you're not, and similarly I'm not saying waiver pickups never turn into anything of value. 

 

All three of those guys in that group may have options remaining if they're protected, but wouldn't it be nice to have some idea whether they're worth protecting? That's really the point. 

 

That trio + others can't really be relied on, or even considered "depth,"  if you don't know what you're getting. They have an opportunity right now to figure that out. IMO the innings spent on Drake are too steep of a price to pay for a guy who profiles as somebody you can audition at any time. 

 

It seems like this is much more of an indictment of the current relief group in the organization rather than actual intrigue with Drake. 

 

On that we agree.

 

I know one 25 man roster spot that I'm willing to slide one of those guys into for a look see and I believe I'm with the overwhelming TD majority on that one. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

True and by that time... Drake should either be cemented or completely out of the way.

My point was, you have to make decisions on them before those 2019 options. Rostering Drake is preventing you from gathering any more MLB info about those guys right now.

 

Unless of course our mind is mostly made up to cut those guys when the season ends. But keep in mind another poster on this thread is suggesting that we couldn't claim Drake earlier, even if we liked him, because our 40-man was full -- even though it was full of guys apparently destined to be cut without another extended look in MLB...

[ashbury]

True and by that time... Drake should either be cemented or completely out of the way. 

Cemented is my guess.

 

[Riverbrian]

 

My point was, you have to make decisions on them before those 2019 options. Rostering Drake is preventing you from gathering any more MLB info about those guys right now.

Unless of course our mind is mostly made up to cut those guys when the season ends. But keep in mind another poster on this thread is suggesting that we couldn't claim Drake earlier, even if we liked him, because our 40-man was full -- even though it was full of guys apparently destined to be cut without another extended look in MLB...

 

I understood. 

 

 

 

 

[Monkeypaws]

 

Maybe if they had kicked the tires on some of these guys last year, Rodriguez or Chargois would still be on this roster.....or maybe not. But, they would have had more data to make better decisions....

who knows Mike - they certainly have more data and scout input than our gut feelings.

 

Hells bells, you don't rise to their positions by being dummies.

[ashbury]

who knows Mike - they certainly have more data and scout input than our gut feelings.

 

Hells bells, you don't rise to their positions by being dummies.

They don't stay in their positions if they make too many bad decisions like these, either.

[Mike Sixel]

 

who knows Mike - they certainly have more data and scout input than our gut feelings.

 

Hells bells, you don't rise to their positions by being dummies.

 

I have never once even implied they are dummies.....that does not make them right all the time.

 

And, you may recall Matt Millen once rose to this level......

[mikelink45]

 

It's not quite apples to apples. To keep Goodrum or Hicks would have required giving them a 40-man roster spot, a long time before we had to roster Wilson or Forsythe.

 

Detroit claimed Hicks on waivers in April 2016. For the Twins to use Hicks to replace Wilson in May 2018, we would have had to keep Hicks on the 40-man for over 2 years, including 2 offseasons where the roster can be a bit tighter (no 60-day DL in the offseason).

 

Goodrum would have been a bit easier to keep, with a 40-man roster spot last offseason. But it still would have been a waste -- where would Goodrum have played in Minnesota? We had a much better infield and lineup than Detroit. (Worth noting Detroit didn't even guarantee him a roster spot -- they signed him to a minor league deal and promoted him just before opening day. It's quite possible Minnesota offered him the same minor league deal and he chose Detroit for the better opportunity.)

Probably not popular, but I wish we had Palka instead of Morrison.  Why are FA better than what we already have.  I hate the fact that we do not give the minor leaguers a chance to prove themselves.  This is not just about those I listed, but those currently in the minors.

[mikelink45]

 

Performance-wise, keep in mind Detroit has had Hicks for almost 3 full seasons now, and he has only 32 starts at catcher. He has 84 starts at 1B/DH in that time. So it's not clear how viable he is, behind the plate. Which is an important distinction, because his 97 OPS+ with Detroit does not make him an asset at 1B/DH. (Even if it is marginally better than Morrison so far in 2018 -- entering 2018 with Hicks as first or second string 1B/DH would have been universally considered a terrible plan.)

 

Likewise, as mentioned upthread, Goodrum has been playing all over for Detroit, but poorly by the metrics. Maybe he's marginally better (offense + defense) than Forsythe's 2018 season right now, but only because Forsythe's 2018 season has been really, really bad at the plate. That alone doesn't make Goodrum an asset. He's worse than Adrianza, Polanco, Sano, and the recently traded Escobar and Dozier in our infield, Mauer at 1B/DH, Rosario, Kepler, and Cave in our OF, etc.

I cannot agree.  I guess I am the big cheer leader for using our own minor league players until they prove they cannot play.  I cannot justify Morrison under any consideration.  Nor could I look at these players and think that Motter, LaMarre and others deserve a better chance. 

[Mike Sixel]

Drake too good to pitch in a blowout, apparently......

[snepp]

 

Drake too good to pitch in a blowout, apparently......

 

Magill'd.

[The Wise One]

Maybe if they had kicked the tires on some of these guys last year, Rodriguez or Chargois would still be on this roster.....or maybe not. But, they would have had more data to make better decisions....

 

Chargois was injured last year. Rodriguez started in Fort Meyers last year. It would be hard to think either belonged in a pennant race

[Mike Sixel]

 

Chargois was injured last year. Rodriguez started in Fort Meyers last year. It would be hard to think either belonged in a pennant race

 

and yet, there they are, in pennant races this year......and no, I don't blame them on either, my point is that if they don't try these young players, ever, then why are they on the roster, and if they are good enough to be on the roster, play them to see if they are worth being on the roster. 

[The Wise One]

My point was, you have to make decisions on them before those 2019 options. Rostering Drake is preventing you from gathering any more MLB info about those guys right now.

Unless of course our mind is mostly made up to cut those guys when the season ends. But keep in mind another poster on this thread is suggesting that we couldn't claim Drake earlier, even if we liked him, because our 40-man was full -- even though it was full of guys apparently destined to be cut without another extended look in MLB...

When Curtis has a high walk rate in the minors,how is it going to get better with better batters? Which other minor league reliever has not been up a significant portion of the last two years?

[tvagle]

 

and yet, there they are, in pennant races this year......and no, I don't blame them on either, my point is that if they don't try these young players, ever, then why are they on the roster, and if they are good enough to be on the roster, play them to see if they are worth being on the roster. 

far bigger residual affect could be that other teams don't select them as minor league FA if they see them struggle at the ML level (huge reach but might make a difference)

[The Wise One]

and yet, there they are, in pennant races this year......and no, I don't blame them on either, my point is that if they don't try these young players, ever, then why are they on the roster, and if they are good enough to be on the roster, play them to see if they are worth being on the roster.

 

check the innings pitched the last 2 Year’s on the major league level a couple have had plenty of chances. Curtiss can’t get the ball over the plate. Moya is up now. Who are they realistically missing?

[Otto von Ballpark]

When Curtis has a high walk rate in the minors,how is it going to get better with better batters? Which other minor league reliever has not been up a significant portion of the last two years?

I think you are missing the context of my post. I was just pointing out costs to rostering Drake. By all means, if the AAA relievers are no good, they can cut them. That will hardly be a defense of the front office that stocked the roster full of them, though, and found no alternative but Belisle.

[jorgenswest]

 

When Curtis has a high walk rate in the minors,how is it going to get better with better batters? Which other minor league reliever has not been up a significant portion of the last two years?

 

A comment in general...

 

Sometimes high walk rates are a result of minor league batters unable to make any contact and deep counts. Many successful pitchers have seen lower walk rates in the majors than in the minors.

 

I haven't seen Curtiss pitch in the minors so I am not sure how much of his ~12% AAA (17,18) walk rate is related to batters simply not making contact.

 

Walk rates in the minors for batters and pitchers have interested me for a while. Liam Hendriks had great control and was leading the IL in ERA on year at 2.20 when called up. In the same league pitchers like Chris Archer, Jake Arrieta, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Dellin Betances and Matt Harvey struggled with walk rates much greater than they would have in the majors. Corey Kluber had AAA walk rates of 9.0% that year and 10.5% the previous. His major league walk rate this year is 3.4% and for his career 5.3%.

 

I doubt there is a correlation between high walk rates and success. I also doubt there is a correlation between low walk rates and major league success. If you look at the 51 pitchers (100 innings) in that AAA group and sorted by walk rate. You need to get to number 25 of 51 Julio Teheran (7.5%) before you find a successful pitcher.

 

Walk rates in the minors are deceiving and don't translate well to the majors. For a pitcher they might have stuff that minor league batters simply can't handle. Batters with a lot of walks might be missing opportunities to barrel up the ball earlier in the count.

 

I am not discouraged by Curtiss' walk rate. I am not encouraged either but a really low walk rate would concern me more than a high walk rate.

[Jham]

I think this is more of an execution over strategy argument. You can argue that the strategy is sound, but the execution is puzzling to some degree. 

 

Twins could have offered Belisle if they really liked him after last season and no one would have batted an eye as long as we weren't planning to have him close again.  But they didn't even try to sign him, then picked him up after he was the worst pitcher on the worst bullpen staff in baseball.

 

Randy Rosario was good enough to get a call last summer, but not good enough to keep this winter. Shaggy and Burdi were let go to roster a Rule 5 flop and a host of guys who won't get a look even in a lost season.  No idea what's going on with Duffey...

Maybe they were all seen as organizational filler that is equally expendable and drew names from a hat. But that's not how it has played out on the field.  Personally, I'd have liked to see the guys with options make the 40 man and funnel in and out weekly, essentially giving us a 9 or 10+ man pen.

 

On the other hand, if we should have rostered Shaggy and Burdi and Rosario, should we have DFA'd Duffy, Curtis, and Boozy or Moya?  Even Hughes got a return. When you draft a lot of failed starters and college relievers, you're likely to end up with a bunch fringe MLB relievers.

[70charger]

A comment in general...

 

Sometimes high walk rates are a result of minor league batters unable to make any contact and deep counts. Many successful pitchers have seen lower walk rates in the majors than in the minors.

 

I haven't seen Curtiss pitch in the minors so I am not sure how much of his ~12% AAA (17,18) walk rate is related to batters simply not making contact.

 

Walk rates in the minors for batters and pitchers have interested me for a while. Liam Hendriks had great control and was leading the IL in ERA on year at 2.20 when called up. In the same league pitchers like Chris Archer, Jake Arrieta, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Dellin Betances and Matt Harvey struggled with walk rates much greater than they would have in the majors. Corey Kluber had AAA walk rates of 9.0% that year and 10.5% the previous. His major league walk rate this year is 3.4% and for his career 5.3%.

 

I doubt there is a correlation between high walk rates and success. I also doubt there is a correlation between low walk rates and major league success. If you look at the 51 pitchers (100 innings) in that AAA group and sorted by walk rate. You need to get to number 25 of 51 Julio Teheran (7.5%) before you find a successful pitcher.

 

Walk rates in the minors are deceiving and don't translate well to the majors. For a pitcher they might have stuff that minor league batters simply can't handle. Batters with a lot of walks might be missing opportunities to barrel up the ball earlier in the count.

 

I am not discouraged by Curtiss' walk rate. I am not encouraged either but a really low walk rate would concern me more than a high walk rate.

Really interesting analysis. I’ve never thought of it that way.

[The Wise One]

 

I think you are missing the context of my post. I was just pointing out costs to rostering Drake. By all means, if the AAA relievers are no good, they can cut them. That will hardly be a defense of the front office that stocked the roster full of them, though, and found no alternative but Belisle.

There is no cost if there is no one blocked.  Whatever improvements they wanted out of their minor league relievers they have not seen. There is something going on that they are not keeping Busenitz up or Curtiss. 

[The Wise One]

 

A comment in general...

 

Sometimes high walk rates are a result of minor league batters unable to make any contact and deep counts. Many successful pitchers have seen lower walk rates in the majors than in the minors.

 

I haven't seen Curtiss pitch in the minors so I am not sure how much of his ~12% AAA (17,18) walk rate is related to batters simply not making contact.

 

Walk rates in the minors for batters and pitchers have interested me for a while. Liam Hendriks had great control and was leading the IL in ERA on year at 2.20 when called up. In the same league pitchers like Chris Archer, Jake Arrieta, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Dellin Betances and Matt Harvey struggled with walk rates much greater than they would have in the majors. Corey Kluber had AAA walk rates of 9.0% that year and 10.5% the previous. His major league walk rate this year is 3.4% and for his career 5.3%.

 

I doubt there is a correlation between high walk rates and success. I also doubt there is a correlation between low walk rates and major league success. If you look at the 51 pitchers (100 innings) in that AAA group and sorted by walk rate. You need to get to number 25 of 51 Julio Teheran (7.5%) before you find a successful pitcher.

 

Walk rates in the minors are deceiving and don't translate well to the majors. For a pitcher they might have stuff that minor league batters simply can't handle. Batters with a lot of walks might be missing opportunities to barrel up the ball earlier in the count.

 

I am not discouraged by Curtiss' walk rate. I am not encouraged either but a really low walk rate would concern me more than a high walk rate.

Command and control. If they don't have it they will get walks.  

[jorgenswest]

 

Command and control. If they don't have it they will get walks.  

For some reason several successful major league pitchers had relatively high walk rates in the minors.

 

If it is only command and control teams don't wait for them to fix it in the minors. The higher rates tend to remain through AAA.

[The Wise One]

 

For some reason several successful major league pitchers had relatively high walk rates in the minors.

 

If it is only command and control teams don't wait for them to fix it in the minors. The higher rates tend to remain through AAA.

There is some reason why there are successful pitchers who had command and control problems in the minors and not in the majors. There are some that never get it. I would hope the front office would have an idea of why that is and who that is. 

[Rosterman]

I guess Zack Granite will not stay in the Twins mix after this season.

[yarnivek1972]

There is no cost if there is no one blocked. Whatever improvements they wanted out of their minor league relievers they have not seen. There is something going on that they are not keeping Busenitz up or Curtiss.

Yeah, they’d rather roster Matt Belisle. Because wouldn’t anyone?