La Velle E. Neal: The Geek Was Right All Along

[nicksaviking]

 

That's fair.

 

Of their players, I might extend 2......Rosario and Gibson, but I'd probably just wait on Gibson and QO him next year (or extend him next year). I'm not even sure there is another option. 

 

I'd love to extend Gibson if he was younger. He's already past most MLB pitchers' peak years though. I like the idea of riding it out and going the QO route if he's worth it.

 

I definitely look to extend Berrios along with Rosario though.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd love to extend Gibson if he was younger. He's already past most MLB pitchers' peak years though. I like the idea of riding it out and going the QO route if he's worth it.

 

I definitely look to extend Berrios along with Rosario though.

 

I thought about Berrios, but he's a pitcher with, what, four or five years of control left? Too much injury risk for me there.

[Taildragger8791]

I'm confused where this need to spend $70 million is coming from. The Twins have $32.7 million in guaranteed contracts for next year, plus an estimated $40 million in arbitration deals. There's maybe another $10 million in pre-arbitration players on the 40-man as well. So you're at $82 million before you've signed any free agents, which is only $27 million below the 2018 payroll. Maybe a couple of players don't get retained and you end up in the low $30 million range. That's one top-of-the-line player (never gonna happen) or two pretty good players. Hell, Escobar alone would eat almost half of that space (and deservedly so).

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

I'd love to extend Gibson if he was younger. He's already past most MLB pitchers' peak years though. I like the idea of riding it out and going the QO route if he's worth it.

 

I definitely look to extend Berrios along with Rosario though.

 

Yeah, Berrios and Rosario are no brainers in my opinion. 

 

Gibson is a bit more difficult, as I think there's a real question as to whether or not he's having a career year or a break out year.  I wouldn't be against a 3 year extension, but there's definitely a "Phil Hughes" type risk here. But yeah, I'm not trading him unless the return is good. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wish him success in AZ, but not so much that resigning him becomes unreasonable.

It’s completely reasonable for him to expect a Cozart-like contract (3/38). And I’d be good with that.

 

 

Agreed, but i think Escobar is Cozart light. Not as good with the glove so his positional flexibility is limited. 

 

I say 3 years/ 30-32m. I'd be good with that and with 3/38 if that's what it takes. 

 

It depends on the market too. Cozart was the only good shortstop on the market. (Why the Angels paid him that much to play third base, we may never know). Practically the only good middle infielder too. The next biggest contract for any middle infielder was Nunez. Then Neil Walker. 3B was better with Frazier and Moustakas, but neither of them did very well either.

 

This year, obviously there is Machado, then Escobar, Lowrie, Asrubal Cabrera, Donaldson, LeMahieu, Moustakas again, Dozier, plus still a few more guys who could be useful - Murphy, Kinsler, Hechavarria, Iglesias.

[Squirrel]

 

and plenty others said it was a good trade for SD.

 

They literally weakened the system, to save 7MM next year, in a year they can't possibly spend as much as they did this year. It was a money move, plain and simple.

I'm going to remember you said this when they sign Machado this off season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm going to remember you said this when they sign Machado this off season.

 

I'd very much like to be wrong.....and have you rub my nose in it for years.

[Squirrel]

 

I'd very much like to be wrong.....and have you rub my nose in it for years.

Good, then let's hope for that! heh ... you and I both know what won't happen here ... but it's fun to dream.

[Brandon]

 

It depends on the market too. Cozart was the only good shortstop on the market. (Why the Angels paid him that much to play third base, we may never know). Practically the only good middle infielder too. The next biggest contract for any middle infielder was Nunez. Then Neil Walker. 3B was better with Frazier and Moustakas, but neither of them did very well either.

 

This year, obviously there is Machado, then Escobar, Lowrie, Asrubal Cabrera, Donaldson, LeMahieu, Moustakas again, Dozier, plus still a few more guys who could be useful - Murphy, Kinsler, Hechavarria, Iglesias.

 

 

The Angels may be behind the new trends of positional flexibility and the lack need for elite defense all over the diamond as a result of high Ks and uppercut swings. 

There is another thread about that topic here 

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/30797-dear-derek-falveytwo-things-happened-last-night 

 

also why is this forum not on a secure website?  notice the http and not https  I know i would be willing to pay a 5$ security fee to make this site secure.

[purppride1]

 

That's due to the nature of the makeup of the team. The Twins couldn't match 2018's payroll if they signed both Machado and Harper. This wasn't some directive by the owner, we've seen this inevitable payroll drop coming for about four years now.

Mauer coming off the books will drive any team's payroll down! Add in dumping a few obviously bad contracts and you're gonna see a drop. They positioned themselves to be able to retain their own talents (there was an assumption Sano and Buxton would progress and move closer to arbitration years that could be bought out with a team friendly contract like Dozier had), as well as target pieces to add next offseason.  If Sano and Buxton do what they were supposed to do this year, we aren't selling, and nobody is complaining about payroll. Hopefully they get it together and both finish strong this year. If so, F/L can use flexibility to plug some holes, maybe make a run at a couple of the better FAs (by all accounts they made legit offers to some of the top FAs this year, just didn't get them), and still have some room to be buyers at the deadline next year if we have a better start than we did this season. 

 

Now...if they do nothing this offseason, we can certainly talk more about this... but these guys came from winning organizations and seem to want to win here. Let's not label them ownership patsies just yet... 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mauer coming off the books will drive any team's payroll down! Add in dumping a few obviously bad contracts and you're gonna see a drop. They positioned themselves to be able to retain their own talents (there was an assumption Sano and Buxton would progress and move closer to arbitration years that could be bought out with a team friendly contract like Dozier had), as well as target pieces to add next offseason.  If Sano and Buxton do what they were supposed to do this year, we aren't selling, and nobody is complaining about payroll. Hopefully they get it together and both finish strong this year. If so, F/L can use flexibility to plug some holes, maybe make a run at a couple of the better FAs (by all accounts they made legit offers to some of the top FAs this year, just didn't get them), and still have some room to be buyers at the deadline next year if we have a better start than we did this season. 

 

Now...if they do nothing this offseason, we can certainly talk more about this... but these guys came from winning organizations and seem to want to win here. Let's not label them ownership patsies just yet... 

 

I agree, they were well positioned to extend Sano and Buxton (though, imo, neither would have done it if they had a very good year).....but now they won't be doing either this off season.

[yarnivek1972]

I agree, they were well positioned to extend Sano and Buxton (though, imo, neither would have done it if they had a very good year).....but now they won't be doing either this off season.

There were an awful lot of people calling for both, especially Buxton, to be extended LAST offseason. How would that be playing now?

 

We still don’t know what kind of player either will be.

[nicksaviking]

 

Good, then let's hope for that! heh ... you and I both know what won't happen here ... but it's fun to dream.

 

Right or wrong, I'd put good money on the belief that we'll at least hear them tied to him in the off season. Probably Ohtani and Darvish Part III.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm confused where this need to spend $70 million is coming from. The Twins have $32.7 million in guaranteed contracts for next year, plus an estimated $40 million in arbitration deals. There's maybe another $10 million in pre-arbitration players on the 40-man as well. So you're at $82 million before you've signed any free agents, which is only $27 million below the 2018 payroll. Maybe a couple of players don't get retained and you end up in the low $30 million range. That's one top-of-the-line player (never gonna happen) or two pretty good players. Hell, Escobar alone would eat almost half of that space (and deservedly so).

Opening day payroll was just under $129 million. I'm not sure where you're getting 82+27 adding up to 129.

 

I also can't imagine their ARB players possibly adding up to $40 million.

[yarnivek1972]

I'm confused where this need to spend $70 million is coming from. The Twins have $32.7 million in guaranteed contracts for next year, plus an estimated $40 million in arbitration deals. There's maybe another $10 million in pre-arbitration players on the 40-man as well. So you're at $82 million before you've signed any free agents, which is only $27 million below the 2018 payroll. Maybe a couple of players don't get retained and you end up in the low $30 million range. That's one top-of-the-line player (never gonna happen) or two pretty good players. Hell, Escobar alone would eat almost half of that space (and deservedly so).

The only guaranteed contracts I am aware of are Castro, Reed and Pineda at a total of under $25 mil. Add on $1.25 mil for the buyouts for Rodney and Morrison. Not sure where you are getting $ 32.7 mil. I get about $ 26 mil.

 

Arb players: Gibson is in line for probably $6 to $7 mil. Odorizzi, IF he is tendered, maybe $ 8 mil. Grossman, also a non-tender candidate, maybe $3.5 to $4 mil. Adrianza maybe $ 2 mil. Rosario could go as high as $2.5 mil. I think it’s been determined that Sano will make the arb cutoff. But I don’t see him getting more than $900 K. Ditto for Buxton and Kepler. Rogers about the same. Maybe $1.25 mil tops if he finishes well.

 

So, that adds up to a max of $28 mil. So $54 mil combined for 12 players.

 

13 more at an average of $ 600 K is just under $ 8 mil. So, that’s $62 mil.

 

The Twins could spend $60 mil on new acquisitions (which would include Mauer) and still be under their 2018 payroll.

[howieramone2]

 

and plenty others said it was a good trade for SD.

 

They literally weakened the system, to save 7MM next year, in a year they can't possibly spend as much as they did this year. It was a money move, plain and simple.

No one anywhere said it was a good trade for SD. Of course it was a money move. We now have 7.25M additional to spent next off-season and don't give me that nonsense about the Pohlads pocketing the money.

[Mr. Brooks]

The only guaranteed contracts I am aware of are Castro, Reed and Pineda at a total of under $25 mil. Add on $1.25 mil for the buyouts for Rodney and Morrison. Not sure where you are getting $ 32.7 mil. I get about $ 26 mil.

 

Arb players: Gibson is in line for probably $6 to $7 mil. Odorizzi, IF he is tendered, maybe $ 8 mil. Grossman, also a non-tender candidate, maybe $3.5 to $4 mil. Adrianza maybe $ 2 mil. Rosario could go as high as $2.5 mil. I think it’s been determined that Sano will make the arb cutoff. But I don’t see him getting more than $900 K. Ditto for Buxton and Kepler. Rogers about the same. Maybe $1.25 mil tops if he finishes well.

 

So, that adds up to a max of $28 mil. So $54 mil combined for 12 players.

 

13 more at an average of $ 600 K is just under $ 8 mil. So, that’s $62 mil.

 

The Twins could spend $60 mil on new acquisitions (which would include Mauer) and still be under their 2018 payroll.

You are forgetting the 5.95 we're still on the hook for Hughes next year.

The total is actually 31.7.

[yarnivek1972]

Oh yeah, Hughes. Still under $70 mil if Odorizzi and Grossman are tendered. Grossman is probably 50-50 (sad to say, he might still be the best bet as a reserve OFer). Odorizzi right now for me would be a non-tender. We’ll see if he finishes well. I just don’t see the logic of spending $8 mil for a 5 inning starter with a .5 bWAR when you might get better than that from Romero for $550 K.

[amjgt]

Opening day payroll was just under $129 million. I'm not sure where you're getting 82+27 adding up to 129.

 

I also can't imagine their ARB players possibly adding up to $40 million.

The beauty of trading all these players is that we need to spend way less in the offseason to match this year’s payroll. If we can move Dozier before the deadline and Santana in August we might just creep down below $110M

[KirbyDome89]

 

I guess I just tend to save my criticism until after something actually occurs rather then speculating what will occur and complaining about that speculated result. 

 

Then you've doubled down on that speculation by saying since they can't possibly spend all their money next year, that saving $7M was a bad thing.

I guess I just tend to be realistic when assessing the situation. If it helps you to believe that this team will spend enough next offseason to boost the payroll by $70M annually then by all means continue...

 

**$77M for next year if we're going to pretend that selling the draft pick wasn't solely about pocketing money...

[KirbyDome89]

 

That's due to the nature of the makeup of the team. The Twins couldn't match 2018's payroll if they signed both Machado and Harper. This wasn't some directive by the owner, we've seen this inevitable payroll drop coming for about four years now.

I realize that. It was the point I made in my OP when I said the payroll was going to be slashed. 

[Doctor Wu]

Before too much longer the big chatter will be about potential free agent signings. Yeah, plenty of money to spend, but no sense in throwing away big dollars and getting meager results again. Sure, I'm all for taking chances, but I'd rather let the young prospects develop at this point. And one word of caution about trades and free agent gambles: Delmon Young. I still have nightmares.