Article: MIN 8, TOR 3: Twins Cruise Over Toronto

[Tom Froemming]

They sure made this one look easy. It was shades of 2017, as the Twins offense broke out with eight runs through the first five innings of this game, making for a low-stress night at the ballpark. How low-stress? Well, there was a leverage situation so low that Paul Molitor even used Matt Magill! Seriously though, sale or no sale, Twins Territory could use one of these more often.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Adalberto Mejia: 46 Game Score, 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, 60.8% strikes

Bullpen: 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 3 BB

Lineup: 4-for-14 w/RISP, 6 LOB

WPA of 0.1 or higher: Escobar .189, Morrison .168, Mauer .165, Mejia .101

WPA of -0.1 or lower: None

Download attachment: WinChart723.png

Let’s go around the horn …

 

First Base

RUNS! After scoring just 4.26 runs per game in June, the Twins are now averaging 5.74 runs per game so far in July. During that great run the 2017 Twins’ offense went on from August forward, they were averaging 5.86 runs per game.

 

Both Joe Mauer and Mitch Garver had three hits on the night. Logan Morrison hit his 12th home run and drove in three. Max Kepler his his 13th homer, a two-run shot, and made a great catch in center. Eduardo Escobar was 2-for-3 with a triple, a walk and two RBIs.

 

Second Base

Adalberto Mejia did his job, but he didn’t exactly have the type of performance that’s going to force the Twins to keep him on the big league roster. He managed to hold the Jays to one run over 5 1/3 innings, but he also gave up eight hits and walked a pair of batters. With Ervin Santana’s return slated for Wednesday, Mejia’s likely going to be headed back to Rochester.

 

Mejia topped out at 95.2 mph and tallied eight swinging strikes, but he only got three strikeouts as Toronto also fouled off 18 pitches and put 21 balls in play. His line would have been worse is the bullpen didn’t clean up the mess he made in the sixth. Speaking of which ...

 

Third Base

I don’t think Matt Belisle is going anywhere. The guy has carved out a role, and you know what? He’s been good at it.

 

Coming into this game, Belisle had only allowed one of the 11 runners he’s inherited score. He took over for Mejia tonight with one out and the bases loaded and managed to strand all those runners, meaning he’s only allowed 7.1 percent of his inherited runners to score since he’s joined the Twins.

 

For comparison, Zach Duke has allowed six of his 11 inherited runners to score (54.5 percent) and 13 of the 23 runners Trevor Hildenberger’s inherited have scored (56.5 percent).

 

Home Plate

Watching a blowout sure gives you some time to think. Let’s talk about bullpenning vs. having an opener.

 

I think tonight’s game is a good example of some of the issues you can run into when you try and cover an entire game with your bullpen. Relievers, in general, are a little unreliable.

 

If you need to run out five different pitchers over the first six frames, as Toronto did tonight, chances are one of those guys is not going to have his best stuff working. In this case it was Tim Mayza (four earned over 1.1 innings) and Joe Biagini (three runs in an inning). The funny thing was once Jaime Garcia finally got into the game for Toronto he threw three perfect innings. Hmm … maybe he should have started …

 

Anyway, having an “opener” is a bit of a different concept. You have a reliever pitch the first innig and roll right into your traditional “starter” in the second. The Twins are experimenting with it in the minors, which I like, but I’m not so confident that’s a great strategy either.

 

What I’d be interested in seeing a team try is having their starter go through the lineup twice, then have the first guy out of the bullpen take a full turn through the lineup. After that you start mixing and matching in the later innings and using your relievers in shorter bursts. Just a thought.

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen723.png

AL Central Standings

CLE 54-44

MIN 45-53 (-9)

DET 42-59 (-13.5)

CHW 34-64 (-20)

KE 30-68 (24)

 

Next Three Games

Tue at TOR, 6:07 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Ryan Borucki

Wed at TOR, 3:07 pm CT: Ervin Santana vs. Sam Gaviglio

Thu at BOS, 7:10 pm CT, TBD

 

Last Three Games

KC 5, MIN 3: Royals Sweep Twins, Butera Hits Inside-the-Park Homer (Seriously)

KC 4, MIN 2: For Sale

KC 6, MIN 5: Maybe It’s Better Off This Way?

 

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[Danchat]

Magill still exists, it's been confirmed. I thought he might have phased from reality somehow.

 

Belisle is weird... he gets a lot of swings and misses with a 90-91 MPH fastball and he's seemingly decent with enough rest. However, just like in 2017, he has a penchant to completely implode and give up a ton of runs, and we're just left waiting until that happens. Still, he should be elsewhere and this team should be getting younger, not older.

[jun]

Maybe that's why Belisle has been well liked in the bullpen. He is certainly a good team player.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don’t think Matt Belisle is going anywhere. The guy has carved out a role, and you know what? He’s been good at it.

 

Coming into this game, Belisle had only allowed one of the 11 runners he’s inherited score.

Keep in mind, Belisle's inherited runners have been in low leverage. He's only seen 1 inherited runner with less than a 3 run lead/deficit.

 

His average game-entering leverage index for the Twins this year is .32. That's not a role which Belisle has carved out, it's just where you stash your clear mop-up guys. He has zero high leverage appearances, 2 medium leverage, and a whopping 13 low leverage.

 

By comparison, Hildeberger and Duke have 1.26 and 1.23 leverage index, 17 and 18 high leverage, and even 14 and 7 medium leverage appearances, respectively. They've entered 17 tie games between them; Belisle zero.

 

They are far more likely to be pitching in competitive games, against competitive teams/lineups. Belisle has been far more likely to pitch against teams that have given up -- yeah, the bases were loaded last night, but the Jays trailed by 7 with 11 outs remaining. They let their #9 hitting backup catcher stay in the game to hit in that situation against Belisle, if that gives you an idea about how competitive they were being.

[mikelink45]

How relaxing.  When the comments are only about Magill and Belisle and we won it is a damn good day.

[wabene]

Wouldn't another factor be where on the bases the runners are and how many outs? Runner on first two outs vs runners on second and third no outs for example.

[Number3]

Continuing the perplexing trend of losing to weaker teams and then playing like true playoff contenders against the better teams. Next 8 games are against Jays, Red Sox and Indians. Should be interesting and may be the season.

[Han Joelo]

I enjoyed Meija's contact heavy approach--sweet catch by Max!  Awesome Jedi catch by Mauer.  

 

Remember the Be Like Mike ad campaign?  Maybe there should be a Belike Belisle poster in the bullpen, reminding pitchers that inherited runs count the same as the ones you give up on your own.  Nature AND Nurture.

[Han Joelo]

 

Continuing the perplexing trend of losing to weaker teams and then playing like true playoff contenders against the better teams. Next 8 games are against Jays, Red Sox and Indians. Should be interesting and may be the season.

I think this team is destined for some existential torture.  Missing the playoffs by the exact number of wins they should have had against KC?

[jorgenswest]

Nice win. Nice work with full bases by Belisle. Good to see some solid defense and a nice start by Mejia.

[Doctor Wu]

The bats are starting to come around, every so slightly. Seeing signs of life with Mauer again, and even Kepler and Grossman are looking better.