Kinley's Magical Horseshoe Remains Intact

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Dear Heloise: I was at the grocery store last night. I bought some lettuce. I got home and found that there was a little mold growing under the outer leaves. But because I had already paid for the lettuce, I made a salad with some of  it anyway and I ate it.  It didn't agree with my stomach and my stomach got upset. My question is this: Should I continue eating this lettuce, or should I toss it and go buy a new head of lettuce? Sign me Perplexed in Minneapolis

[jud6312]

 

Follow-up: What game have the Twins lost because of Kinley? What game did they absolutely need another, better relief pitcher? Who is sitting in AAA killing it who shouldn't be because of Kinley?

 

The Twins are losing games because they aren't very good at pitching now. That isn't on Kinley, that's on the staff.

 

We don't know because he can't be trusted. And that's kind of the point.

 

Perhaps if they could trust him, or have somebody else that they could trust, they don't send Rodney out for the 10th on opening day.

 

Perhaps they don't leave Duke or Hildy in too long or overexpose them.

 

Yes, the overall state of the bullpen is the major concern, but when you've got a lot of question marks out there, can you really afford to give up one of those spots to someone who can't be trusted in non-blowouts and doesn't seem to have the capacity to be the multiple inning mop-up guy?

 

So, no, Kinley has not directly cost the team any games, but it's one less bullet in the chamber for a group that needs every last one of them.

[nicksaviking]

 

fighting the fire with one less fire fighter seems needless, to me.

 

roster spots matter.

 

I agree, but they're short about ten firefighters. I don't understand why the focus is on one guy.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, but they're short about ten firefighters. I don't understand why the focus is on one guy.

Because this thread is about the one guy. You can't have a thread that covers every problem. I don't understand how this is even a question.

 

And if we start a thread for every problem, well, then the site is too negative to be fun

[stringer bell]

Kinley isn't ready to face major league hitters in any kind of high-leverage situation. I don't think his upside is worth him not being competitive even in games that are pretty much out of reach.

 

That said, the bigger problem here is that there aren't anywhere close to enough reliable arms in the bullpen. Every relief pitcher with an option remaining should be looking over their shoulder. To wit, Rogers (despite what Blyleven continues to say) has not performed well since midseason last year. Duke has about a 2.0 WHIP, Pressly has been good, but scares me most times out, Hildenberger and Businetz appear to be cases where the Twins caught lightning in a bottle last year. Add the unreliable Rodney at the end and this bullpen is scary.

[Mike Sixel]

He's 27 and wasn't good in AA last year. IMO, this is a terrible waste of a roster spot, for a team that thinks it is a contender

[Otto von Ballpark]

For everyone trashing the Rule 5 moves of the Twins, its time we remember Johan Santana. My point isn't that Kinley is going to turn into Johan Santana (he isn't) but that this is what a Rule 5 is supposed to be. Santana put up a 6.50 ERA in his season and then went to the minors to learn to pitch.

 

Santana was 21 years old. Worth noting they've changed the rules since then, so Johan wouldn't have been eligible for Rule 5 for another year.

 

Even Pressly was only 24 years old when selected, and had just begun the conversion from starter to reliever a few months prior.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Santana was 21 years old. Worth noting they've changed the rules since then, so Johan wouldn't have been eligible for Rule 5 for another year.

Even Pressly was only 24 years old when selected, and had just begun the conversion from starter to reliever a few months prior.

 

Oh agreed on the age aspect of this. I'm not saying Kinley was the right choice, just that we should expect him to struggle.

 

It feels like Kinley's reward (set-up man?) doesn't warrant the investment in him. But I don't think he's going to be the difference in the Twins being good or not being good this year. I think we overreact because he's an easy target for the frustrations that come from a week of bad baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

Oh agreed on the age aspect of this. I'm not saying Kinley was the right choice, just that we should expect him to struggle.

 

It feels like Kinley's reward (set-up man?) doesn't warrant the investment in him. But I don't think he's going to be the difference in the Twins being good or not being good this year. I think we overreact because he's an easy target for the frustrations that come from a week of bad baseball.

Couldn't you make that argument about a third of the roster? The point isn't that their entire season hinges on him, the point is that they are using a roster spot on a guy that isn't good. On a playoff contender, not a rebuilding team.

[PseudoSABR]

I don't fault the Twins for wanting to keep Kinley; I fault them for not working a trade, and having to guarantee him a roster spot in order to keep him. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

We don't know because he can't be trusted. And that's kind of the point.

 

Perhaps if they could trust him, or have somebody else that they could trust, they don't send Rodney out for the 10th on opening day.

 

Perhaps they don't leave Duke or Hildy in too long or overexpose them.

 

Yes, the overall state of the bullpen is the major concern, but when you've got a lot of question marks out there, can you really afford to give up one of those spots to someone who can't be trusted in non-blowouts and doesn't seem to have the capacity to be the multiple inning mop-up guy?

 

So, no, Kinley has not directly cost the team any games, but it's one less bullet in the chamber for a group that needs every last one of them.

 

On opening day the Twins had Pressley, Rogers and Moya still in the pen. Kinley played no role in that game. And Rodney threw a total of 7 pitches. I don't think not sending him out for the 10th would have been a realistic concept.

 

The Twins don't have anyone in the top 100 for appearances. Hildenberg is tops with 9 appearances and only 9.2 innings. He hasn't been overworked, he's just sucked.

 

Most teams have a guy who is only used in blowouts. That's not unusual. 

 

A better argument overall would be that the Twins would be better off carrying an extra hitter who might be able to help late in games. That hitter would be Vargas, for better or for worse. But I don't think anyone on TD things that they would keep a hitter - they just would have another reliever who wouldn't come in often.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Follow-up: What game have the Twins lost because of Kinley? What game did they absolutely need another, better relief pitcher? Who is sitting in AAA killing it who shouldn't be because of Kinley?

 

The Twins are losing games because they aren't very good at pitching now. That isn't on Kinley, that's on the staff.

Well, Kinley took a roster spot that could have gone to Chargois or someone else. Duffey, Curtiss, or Slegers could be contributing more right now even with the same craptastic performance, just by virtue of their flexibility with options.

 

And while Kinley hasn't directly lost games, he hasn't contributed in any way at all. Even Justin Haley was eating innings last April, and Luke Bard was mostly doing the same for the Angels (he even got 5 outs in an extra innings win for LA). Kinley is almost certainly a negative drag on this team right now, even if most of it is indirect.

 

Yes, other players are struggling too, but that doesn't mean they should keep Kinley no matter what. And I don't think anyone is claiming Kinley is the only reason or even the #1 reason we are losing, but he is a clear net negative that is probably the easiest to address.

[jud6312]

 

On opening day the Twins had Pressley, Rogers and Moya still in the pen. Kinley played no role in that game. And Rodney threw a total of 7 pitches. I don't think not sending him out for the 10th would have been a realistic concept.

 

The Twins don't have anyone in the top 100 for appearances. Hildenberg is tops with 9 appearances and only 9.2 innings. He hasn't been overworked, he's just sucked.

 

Most teams have a guy who is only used in blowouts. That's not unusual. 

 

A better argument overall would be that the Twins would be better off carrying an extra hitter who might be able to help late in games. That hitter would be Vargas, for better or for worse. But I don't think anyone on TD things that they would keep a hitter - they just would have another reliever who wouldn't come in often.

They've also played anywhere from 4-7 fewer games than most teams in the league. If at the end of the year Hildy's at 80-85 games, would that qualify for overuse? That's what he's on pace for.

 

And, yes, they do have that blowout guy, but he's failing in that role, too. 

 

There's more than enough disgust to go around for this pen, but you have to start with what the easiest fixes are - guys with options, guys without veteran contracts, 27-year-old non-prospects, etc.

[USAFChief]

 

Dear Heloise: I was at the grocery store last night. I bought some lettuce. I got home and found that there was a little mold growing under the outer leaves. But because I had already paid for the lettuce, I made a salad with some of  it anyway and I ate it.  It didn't agree with my stomach and my stomach got upset. My question is this: Should I continue eating this lettuce, or should I toss it and go buy a new head of lettuce? Sign me Perplexed in Minneapolis

Dear thtf:

 

Skip the salad, eat a steak.

 

-H

[ThejacKmp]

 

That's the wrong question to ask IMO. Is there someone else they could use that roster spot on that will make a bigger impact than Kinley?

Wouldn't it be better to have another position player on roster who could play in the OF over Grossman? Or another middle IF that could have taken some of Sano's rotten PAs?

 

I mean, I guess you could get someone but you're looking at either Granite or Vargas reasonably. There really isn't anyone else in the high minors who looks good (I think we can all agree we don't need someone like Cave who is just a journeyman). I don't see what Granite changes for the Twins - he's LH and doesn't pack much pop. I guess he's a better fielder but the Twins could've gotten him up for Buxton and chose not to, which tells you it isn't Kinley keeping him down.

Vargas might be a nice PH bat but I don't know that he moves the needle much either.

 

I don't buy not giving Sano time to hit and instead giving . . . Erick Aybar a chance? Rushing Gordon? The Twins need Sano to get on track this year and the only way he's going to get rolling is by getting some reps.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Couldn't you make that argument about a third of the roster? The point isn't that their entire season hinges on him, the point is that they are using a roster spot on a guy that isn't good. On a playoff contender, not a rebuilding team.

 

No. I don't see a lot of guys on the roster who have no real point. Only guys I could see an argument for:

 

LaMarre (no track record, nothing invested in him)

Grossman (one good season, is it for real?)*

 

Other than that, I think everyone else seems like they could be part of a good Twins team. Hildy had a great year last year, Buesnitz has good stuff, Moya could develop into a nice lefty bullpen guy etc. For the pen, Pressley is a great example of how guys can turn it around. I don't see anyone in the Twins pen who doesn't have a case for being on the roster.

 

I think backup OF is one spot the Twins organization is weak but I expect a competitive Twins team to address that at the deadline (there wasn't much better than LaMarre and Grossman on the 4th OF market this offseason). 

 

What's your third?

 

* Note that I think that Grossman has a definite place on the roster. I just think it should be 5th OF and not 4th OF.

[Mike Sixel]

I may have misunderstood your post. I thought your point was that the season didn't hinge on kinley. Does the season hinge on Grossman? Garver? Duke? I totally thought that was your point. Imo.... Every roster spot matters.

[Otto von Ballpark]

(I think we can all agree we don't need someone like Cave who is just a journeyman).

Cave is actually just 25 years old, he put up a 156 wRC+ in AAA last year (and seems to be around 120 for his pro career), and he can apparently play CF. The Yankees protected him from Rule 5 this winter, and the Twins are just his second pro organization (if you discount the spring he spent with the Reds as a Rule 5 pick a couple years ago).

 

Cave might be a future journeyman, but I don't think he is one yet. There is a solid argument that he should be getting fill-in outfield reps over Grossman and LaMarre.

[KirbyDome89]

 

For everyone trashing the Rule 5 moves of the Twins, its time we remember Johan Santana. My point isn't that Kinley is going to turn into Johan Santana (he isn't) but that this is what a Rule 5 is supposed to be. Santana put up a 6.50 ERA in his season and then went to the minors to learn to pitch.

It should be trashed. It was a complete waste of a roster spot last year and the FO held on much longer than they should've for a team that was actually winning games. It's indefensible this year now that they consider themselves contenders. There's a difference between taking a few lumps and being unable to pitch at the major league level. Everything about Kinley's performance this ST and early season, as well as his past, suggests the latter.  

 

Johan has nothing to do with the 2018 Twins. We could lay a pile of Rule V flops at your feet as evidence that the draft is nothing but a junk swap, but again, that isn't the point. It's about what's best for the team, and some years it'll make sense to participate while other years it won't. If the argument is to just roll the dice because they hit the lottery once, then why not roll the dice on somebody who, similar to Kinley, has long odds of ever being serviceable, but can actually be kept in the minors? A 27 year old who has struggled above A ball isn't hard to find.

[ThejacKmp]

 

They've also played anywhere from 4-7 fewer games than most teams in the league. If at the end of the year Hildy's at 80-85 games, would that qualify for overuse? That's what he's on pace for.

 

And, yes, they do have that blowout guy, but he's failing in that role, too. 

 

There's more than enough disgust to go around for this pen, but you have to start with what the easiest fixes are - guys with options, guys without veteran contracts, 27-year-old non-prospects, etc.

 

You really think that Hildenberg is going to pitch at the same rate when the Twins are playing everyday? The only reason he's pitched such a high percentage is all the days off. The Twins won't keep up this pace, they're not Dusty Baker.

 

Replacing Kinley with . . . Buesnitz? isn't going to win or lose the Twins any games. The role by definition is to mop up. You have to make the fixes that are most likely to make an actual difference. I don't see any easy ones. I also think this is a small-sample slump and not something that requires radical changes.

[Vanimal46]

I'm sure some will be shocked I'm saying this... Make Hughes the mop up guy (replaces Kinley) and call up a SP instead. That's a real upgrade.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Well, Kinley took a roster spot that could have gone to Chargois or someone else. Duffey, Curtiss, or Slegers could be contributing more right now even with the same craptastic performance, just by virtue of their flexibility with options.

And while Kinley hasn't directly lost games, he hasn't contributed in any way at all. Even Justin Haley was eating innings last April, and Luke Bard was mostly doing the same for the Angels (he even got 5 outs in an extra innings win for LA). Kinley is almost certainly a negative drag on this team right now, even if most of it is indirect.

Yes, other players are struggling too, but that doesn't mean they should keep Kinley no matter what. And I don't think anyone is claiming Kinley is the only reason or even the #1 reason we are losing, but he is a clear net negative that is probably the easiest to address.

 

The Twins decided not to keep Chargois (and Bard) before Kinley was ever a possibility. So those two are not particularly related. I'm not blaming Kinley for that, I'm blaming the front office for thinking that they could get anybody at #18 that would have more upside than Chargois (who also had no options). 

 

Not saying that we should keep Kinley no matter what. Like you, I think that the upside of Future Kinley is not worth Present Kinley.

 

But this should be a non-subject. I've heard this complaint on just about every game recap and most threads. It's a pretty overhyped issue for the Twins. Kinley's performance has done nothing to change the Twins record right now. That's because the last pitcher in the pen rarely effects the team's record (only real exception are those 16 inning games and the Twins never used him in their lone example). 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Cave is actually just 25 years old, he put up a 156 wRC+ in AAA last year (and seems to be around 120 for his pro career), and he can apparently play CF. The Yankees protected him from Rule 5 this winter, and the Twins are just his second pro organization (if you discount the spring he spent with the Reds as a Rule 5 pick a couple years ago).

Cave might be a future journeyman, but I don't think he is one yet. There is a solid argument that he should be getting fill-in outfield reps over Grossman and LaMarre.

 

Interesting. Too bad he hits lefty. Because Grossman and LaMarre both make sense since they can hit righty. Would you promote Cave over Granite if Kepler or Rosario hit the DL?

[Otto von Ballpark]

You really think that Hildenberg is going to pitch at the same rate when the Twins are playing everyday? The only reason he's pitched such a high percentage is all the days off. The Twins won't keep up this pace, they're not Dusty Baker.

 

We could be using Kinley's spot to help find/season that reliever who will have to pick up the slack when we can't use Hildy or Reed every day. Like Curtiss -- he has to be better than Kinley, right? Plus he has options, so we can swap him out for a fresh arm as needed, or send him down to work on something.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm sure some will be shocked I'm saying this... Make Hughes the mop up guy (replaces Kinley) and call up a SP instead. That's a real upgrade.

 

Well that's the future almost certainly. When Santana comes back, Hughes goes to the pen and Kinley is the obvious guy to drop. We'll see what happens there (and that may be an argument to make the Kinley drop earlier since it's going to happen anyways).

[Mike Sixel]

The lack of team options is a big deal, imo. They could be cycling guys to see who is ready, or to give guys rest.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins decided not to keep Chargois (and Bard) before Kinley was ever a possibility.

Chargois was lost on waivers in late February. Cutting Kinley was certainly a possible alternative move.

[ThejacKmp]

 

We could be using Kinley's spot to help find/season that reliever who will have to pick up the slack when we can't use Hildy or Reed every day. Like Curtiss -- he has to be better than Kinley, right? Plus he has options, so we can swap him out for a fresh arm as needed, or send him down to work on something.

 

I'd feel more concerned about Kinley for Curtiss (who I get very excited about) if the Twins hadn't also been carrying the Moya/Buesnitz/Duffey revolving door already. If Duffey sticks and is good, then I think Curtiss for Kinley begins to make some sense.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Kinley's performance has done nothing to change the Twins record right now. That's because the last pitcher in the pen rarely effects the team's record (only real exception are those 16 inning games and the Twins never used him in their lone example).

The Twins used Rogers in both games in Puerto Rico, and then he helped lose 2 games in Tampa this weekend. You don't think maybe that usage is related to carrying Kinley who has no practical usage on this staff?

[ThejacKmp]

 

It should be trashed. It was a complete waste of a roster spot last year and the FO held on much longer than they should've for a team that was actually winning games. It's indefensible this year now that they consider themselves contenders. There's a difference between taking a few lumps and being unable to pitch at the major league level. Everything about Kinley's performance this ST and early season, as well as his past, suggests the latter.  

 

Johan has nothing to do with the 2018 Twins. We could lay a pile of Rule V flops at your feet as evidence that the draft is nothing but a junk swap, but again, that isn't the point. It's about what's best for the team, and some years it'll make sense to participate while other years it won't. If the argument is to just roll the dice because they hit the lottery once, then why not roll the dice on somebody who, similar to Kinley, has long odds of ever being serviceable, but can actually be kept in the minors? A 27 year old who has struggled above A ball isn't hard to find.

The Rule V has worked out for the Twins overall. If they take a terrible Rule V guy for ten years it still has been better.

 

Agree with you on Kinley's age being an issue. I wouldn't have taken him, would've protected Burdi (and sadly, likely would've let Chargois go).

 

My overall point is that Kinley hasn't been the reason the Twins are where they are. His role (mop-up guy) is pretty meaningless for overall record. I'm fine with dropping him but let's have an appropriate level of ire when examining the situation and let's not act like the Twins will be unable to compete if their mop-up guy sucks.