Vegas Underwhelmed with the Twins at 60:1

[caninatl04]

The Vegas books have the Twins 60:1 to win it all in '18.  I guess that is not so surprising given the strength of the Elite Eight in '17.  But what I find "curious" is that these are (tied with Atlanta and Baltimore) the 20th longest odds. I recognize that there isn't a one-to-one relation between odds to win it all and projected win-losses, but these odds are at least consistent with the Twins sporting only the 20th best record. In 2017, the 20th best record was 75-87.

 

I am in no way advocating wagering.  I just want to point out that those who literally put their money where their mouths are, remain unimpressed.

 

Just FYI:  Shortest odds are, not surprisingly, are Astros and Dodgers (5:1), while the longest odds are our friends from Detroit at 280:1.

 

AL Central:

 

Cleveland 6:1

White Sox 50:1

Twins 60:1

KC 80:1

Detroit 280:1

[USAFChief]

link?

 

[spinowner]

Keep in mind that odds are based not on how the oddsmakers think the teams will finish but rather on how the oddsmakers think the bettors will bet.

[diehardtwinsfan]

That might be worth a $100 wager. I'm a bit surprised it would be open in advance of FA, but then again, I don't gamble, so I don't know.

[ashbury]

 I'm a bit surprised it would be open in advance of FA,

People waving fistfuls of dollar bills and wanting to place bets have an amazing effect on bookmakers. And don't fear for their profitability; they are able to hedge in ways that would put Wall Streeters to shame.

[Otwins]

White Sox lower odds than Twins?

[Blake]

Wow, Detroit is 280:1? I'd put $20 on that in a heartbeat just because.

[South Dakota Tom]

 

 

Wow, Detroit is 280:1? I'd put $20 on that in a heartbeat just because.

Isn't the Supreme Court about to decide if you can do just that, without going to Vegas (different thread, different time...)?

[thegambler]

Keep in mind that odds are based not on how the oddsmakers think the teams will finish but rather on how the oddsmakers think the bettors will bet.

Not only that, but they are also based on, and change, based on how people are betting. The house breaks even on their bets, and makes their profit on the juice.

[Mike Sixel]

That has nothing to do with what their records might be, well, almost nothing

[70charger]

They had a segment on the betting lines on a recent Gleeman and the Geek. I think the highest they saw at one particular casino in Vegas was 100:1, which I'd do because what the hell, why not? More typical was something like 40 or 50, I think.

 

These things do have a tendency to change pretty regularly, though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There must be a slew of delusional south siders driving up those odds because lol.

 

The White Sox are a promising team but probably not in 2018 and almost certainly not postseason-bound.

[Doctor Wu]

It's much much too early to be making bets or giving odds on the 2018 season. Hey, the festive off-season of trades and free-agent signings is just now starting. Tell those Vegas idiots to hold their horses!

[ashbury]

It's much much too early to be making bets or giving odds on the 2018 season. Hey, the festive off-season of trades and free-agent signings is just now starting. Tell those Vegas idiots to hold their horses!

I imagine the smart money thinks this is a great time to be making bets. A baseline of bets now gives you just that much more room to construct hedging bets later on that assure you a profit (above and beyond the house advantage) no matter who wins the pennant. Silly White Sox fans.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I don't find the long odds against the Twins to be too surprising. They finished the season 17 games behind Cleveland. That's a lot.

Also going from 59 wins to 85 wins probably makes many think that this was an 'lucky' season for the Twins. In fact, I think the 59 wins & 103 losses was the record that featured a substantial portion of 'bad luck'.

Still, not putting any money on my Twins until the starting rotation gets a big boost.

Go Falvine!

[DaveW]

 

I imagine the smart money thinks this is a great time to be making bets. A baseline of bets now gives you just that much more room to construct hedging bets later on that assure you a profit (above and beyond the house advantage) no matter who wins the pennant. Silly White Sox fans.

The problem is typically future bets have an insanely high vig (house advantage) on them.

[DaveW]

As the team stands now: I'd put the Twins between 40:1 and 60:1

They just don't have the starting pitching or bullpen to realistically compete in the playoffs.

However if they can get Darvish, Ohtani and 2 solid bullpen arms?

I'd slot them in at 12:1 to 18:1