Outside the box Idea: Trade for Giancarlo Stanton

[DaveW]

The Twins "window" is NOW, and by trading for Stanton you are getting his 3 prime years before he inevitably opts out of his contract.
Just think of what a lineup of:

Buxton
Dozier
Stanton
Sano

Could do?

The package:
Kepler
Gordon
Kirillkoff
Romero

[Major League Ready]

 

The Twins "window" is NOW, and by trading for Stanton you are getting his 3 prime years before he inevitably opts out of his contract.
Just think of what a lineup of:

Buxton
Dozier
Stanton
Sano

Could do?

The package:
Kepler
Gordon
Kirillkoff
Romero

 

He has a full no trade clause and he is not coming here no matter what we offer the Marlins.  This is Verlander all over again with even less chance the player would waive their no trade clause to come here.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

He has a full no trade clause and he is not coming here no matter what we offer the Marlins.  This is Verlander all over again with even less chance the player would waive their no trade clause to come here.

 

Why wouldn't he want to come here?  The Twins have a very good young core of players with solid/role players at the top of their minor leagues close to making it to the MLB.  They have room to spend money this offseason and are positioned to be a very competitive team for the next 5 to 6 years.

 

I don't think this is the same situation as Verlander at all.  If the Twins were trying to trade for Verlander and he killed the deal, it would have been because going to the Astros gave him the very best chance to win the World Series.  They were way ahead of all other AL competition this year and it really wasn't close. I don't think he would have killed the deal because he didn't want to play here, it would have been because he had a better option late in the season that he already knew was a great team.

[Roaddog]

I don't think our window is now for one thing. We don't have the pitching to make a deep run as it stands right now

[GP830]

It's fun to think about that lineup. 

[Tomj14]

 

The Twins "window" is NOW, and by trading for Stanton you are getting his 3 prime years before he inevitably opts out of his contract.
Just think of what a lineup of:

Buxton
Dozier
Stanton
Sano

Could do?

The package:
Kepler
Gordon
Kirillkoff
Romero

I would hope the Twins would do that without thinking. The only for sure in that trade is Kepler. I don't think the Marlins would do that deal, but I would offer it to them to see how close it is.

[DaveW]

 

I would hope the Twins would do that without thinking. The only for sure in that trade is Kepler. I don't think the Marlins would do that deal, but I would offer it to them to see how close it is.

Yeah you may have to add in more.

It depends on how they view Kepler of course.

Gordon is a top 25 prospect, though they would prob have to add in Gonsalves as well, which would suck, but would be worth it IMO.

[prouster]

The Twins "window" is NOW, and by trading for Stanton you are getting his 3 prime years before he inevitably opts out of his contract.

Just think of what a lineup of:

 

Buxton

Dozier

Stanton

Sano

 

Could do?

 

The package:

Kepler

Gordon

Kirillkoff

Romero

I doubt they'll go after Stanton, and I don't think they should. For the sake of the hypothetical, I don't think they'd have to give up that much if they ate most of or all his contract.

 

Stanton

 

For:

 

Gordon

Jay

Salary Relief

 

???

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

He has a full no trade clause and he is not coming here no matter what we offer the Marlins.  This is Verlander all over again with even less chance the player would waive their no trade clause to come here.

Why do you think he would not want to come to sunny Minnesota?  

[Mr. Brooks]

I doubt they'll go after Stanton, and I don't think they should. For the sake of the hypothetical, I don't think they'd have to give up that much if they ate most of or all his contract.

 

Stanton

 

For:

 

Gordon

Jay

Salary Relief

 

???

Stanton was worth $60 million last year, and is right in his prime. Whoever trades for him is taking the whole contract, and I doubt there would even be a consideration of any discount because of it.

[DaveW]

Yeah, Stanton's contract is a steal to be honest.

That is why he will opt opt out in 3 years.

[Winston Smith]

Just sign JD Martinez you don't need to give up anybody and he'd be cheaper.

[DaveW]

 

Just sign JD Martinez you don't need to give up anybody and he'd be cheaper.

Would he be cheaper though? As mentioned, Stanton will opt out in 3 years...like 9% chance of so.

Asking price for JD will be 8 years, 200 million. Not sure I like that as much.

[Thrylos]

 

The Twins "window" is NOW, and by trading for Stanton you are getting his 3 prime years before he inevitably opts out of his contract.
Just think of what a lineup of:

Buxton
Dozier
Stanton
Sano

Could do?

The package:
Kepler
Gordon
Kirillkoff
Romero

 

Need to add Tonkin to balance that trade.

Rats!

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Why do you think he would not want to come to sunny Minnesota?  

 

Because I heard an interview with Ken Rosenthal.  He said there were four teams he thought Stanton would approve for a trade.  (Dodgers | Yankees | Red Sox and I think the 4th one is Chicago.  Obviously, he is speculating but he is a little more connected than the rest of us.

[Thrylos]

 

Why wouldn't he want to come here? 

 

(I assume "here" is MN and not SF)

 

Lemme see:  He is from the St Fernando Valley.  He lives and works in Miami.  Why would anyone in their right mind abandon all that and go to Minnesota to be shown as a dog and/or pony in the Winter Caravan in every little Podunk, ND, SD, and MN, for a month with ridiculous weather?  

 

Same $ for him.  Were me, I'd rather be sipping mojitos in South Beach in January.

[Major League Ready]

 

 

Stanton was worth $60 million last year, and is right in his prime. Whoever trades for him is taking the whole contract, and I doubt there would even be a consideration of any discount because of it.

 

How are you calculating his worth at $60M?

[prouster]

Stanton was worth $60 million last year, and is right in his prime. Whoever trades for him is taking the whole contract, and I doubt there would even be a consideration of any discount because of it.

I don't think any team will approach negotiations ready to offer the same package with or without taking on that contract. He was worth a lot in 2017, and though he's been good for most of his career so far, he has had a couple seasons dramatically affected by injuries. He's definitely not a lock to put up 7 WAR again. A high quality ball player for sure, but there will be a discount for a team who takes on salary. That's just kind of how it works.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think any team will approach negotiations ready to offer the same package with or without taking on that contract. He was worth a lot in 2017, and though he's been good for most of his career so far, he has had a couple seasons dramatically affected by injuries. He's definitely not a lock to put up 7 WAR again. A high quality ball player for sure, but there will be a discount for a team who takes on salary. That's just kind of how it works.

No, that's how it works with past their prime types who are overpaid. The contract is a non issue. What do you think he'd fetch if he were a FA this year? There is your answer.

[Mr. Brooks]

How are you calculating his worth at $60M?

I believe fangraphs uses $8 million per WAR when they calculate how much a player is worth. That is the standard I used.

[gunnarthor]

The Pohlad family isn't taking on that kind of contract nor should the Twins mortgage the future on him. This is a pipe dream. Improve pitching. The offense is good and we have solid prospects coming up.

[Guest]

Yeah, Stanton's contract is a steal to be honest.

That is why he will opt opt out in 3 years.

This is a fun discussion, but no team is taking his contract, especially if they’re trading a bunch of their top prospects. If the Twins were to take his contract, they will not take on any pitchers, except perhaps on Matt Belisle deals, so they will still struggle to win, although they could have a fun offense.

[DaveW]

This is a fun discussion, but no team is taking his contract, especially if they’re trading a bunch of their top prospects. If the Twins were to take his contract, they will not take on any pitchers, except perhaps on Matt Belisle deals, so they will still struggle to win, although they could have a fun offense.

Why wouldn’t they take the contract? Again it’s effectively 3 years

[Major League Ready]

 

I believe fangraphs uses $8 million per WAR when they calculate how much a player is worth. That is the standard I used.

 

What I am trying to ask is Fangraph’s saying that 1 WAR is worth $8M or are they saying the average production from FAs is 1 WAR per $8M.   Those are two very different things.  It would take a $400M payroll to construct a 98 win team of free agents so I think their calculation is based purely on average production as opposed to value.  If this was a measure or worth, Dozier would have been worth $86M over the last two years.

[Guest]

Why wouldn’t they take the contract? Again it’s effectively 3 years

This has been covered extensively. Here’s an off the top of my head summary.

 

If Stanton gets hurt or tails off, it’s another $218M or so and could become the biggest albatross in history. If he plays well, as you say, he’ll be gone in three years, so teams are not going to wipe out their systems for that, especially for a player who is clearly below the top tier of players.

 

Also, if you average his value over the last three years, it’s about $33M. Assuming he continues to perform at that level as he goes past 30, there is little excess value in his contract. Therefore, teams are not going to throw in a lot of value from their systems, unless the Marlins eat a lot of the cost and protect the acquiring team against the downside risk.

[Shaitan]

I feel like any Miami player would take a trade to any other team, just to be free of that franchise.

[Shaitan]

If the Twins were really a now-or-never team I'd consider this, but I think trading all their top prospects guts the system too much. They'd be worse off on defense with Stanton in place of Kepler and worse off on pitching because they'd be out Romero and not have the spending money to add any quality FA pieces.

 

 

[Jacksson]

Waste of time an energy to even bring this up. For how long have we heard the moaning and groaning over Joe's contract? What do you think happens when Stanton's performance drops as he ages and/or injuries begin to take their inevitable toll? Whoever gets him will be paying for his performance for the Marlins over the past few years as opposed to his performance for his new team.

[Mr. Brooks]

This is a fun discussion, but no team is taking his contract, especially if they’re trading a bunch of their top prospects. If the Twins were to take his contract, they will not take on any pitchers, except perhaps on Matt Belisle deals, so they will still struggle to win, although they could have a fun offense.

The fun part about discussing sports is that it's rarely abstract. We'll actually get to see who's right, eventually.

 

Every contract is a risk. If risk was the only factor, we'd never see big contracts handed out. It only takes one team to think his next 3 years will be more like 2017 than 2016 or 15.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This has been covered extensively. Here’s an off the top of my head summary.

 

If Stanton gets hurt or tails off, it’s another $218M or so and could become the biggest albatross in history. If he plays well, as you say, he’ll be gone in three years, so teams are not going to wipe out their systems for that, especially for a player who is clearly below the top tier of players.

 

Also, if you average his value over the last three years, it’s about $33M. Assuming he continues to perform at that level as he goes past 30, there is little excess value in his contract. Therefore, teams are not going to throw in a lot of value from their systems, unless the Marlins eat a lot of the cost and protect the acquiring team against the downside risk.

you had me until “clearly below top tier”. There’s too much talk over a “clearly below top tier” player on that gigantic contract with a full no trade clause, that he is not considered by many/most GMs as “top tier”

 

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-giants-and-cards-favorites-but-many-want-stanton/

 

He’s 28 and posted a 6.9 fWAR.