Article: Launching Into A New Statistical Era

[Cody Christie]

Baseball is an ever changing game. Pitchers and batters are in a constant struggle to find an advantage. Technology has made it easier for teams to find and fix flaws. There is also a plethora of statistical information available to help fans have a better understanding of the game.

 

It's no secret that the Twins were behind the times when it came to statistic analysis. They were one of the last front offices to establish a "baseball research" position in 2011. After the establishment of a new front office regime this off-season, the Twins are playing catch-up to the rest of the league.Thanks to MLB's Statcast, statistics like launch angle and exit velocity are starting to become part of the baseball lexicon. How do the Twins stack up in this new statistical era?

 

Launch Angle

The Washington Post took a deep look into the launch angle revolution happening across baseball. As part of the story, they say that MLB players have reached "the conclusion that not only are flyballs, on average, better than grounders but the latter are to be avoided at all costs." With teams utilizing more defensive shifts, there are fewer holes in the infield so it makes sense to try to put the ball in the air.

 

Minnesota hitters seem to have bought in to the launch angle revolution. The Twins currently have MLB's fourth lowest GB/FB rate because they have the third highest FB%. From a hitter's vantage point, a launch angle between 25-35 degrees is optimal. To put that in perspective, Miguel Sano has averaged a 28.2 degree launch angle on his team-leading 14 home runs.

 

While hitting the ball in the air might be good for some players, it can also mess with the swings of others. FiveThirtyEight did a study on launch angles and concluded "the correlation between a batter's changing flyball rate and his subsequent change in production is nonexistent."

 

Exit Velocity

Launch angle is only part of the equation. If a player hits it at the right angle, there still needs to be enough force behind the ball and this is where exit velocity comes into play. The Twins are not only putting the ball in the air, they are also in the top-10 when it comes to hard-hit percentage. In fact, multiple Twins hitters rank very well when it comes to average exit velocity.

 

Miguel Sano leads all of baseball in average exit velocity (see rankings above) while Max Kepler is just inside the top-20 with Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier ranking near the top-40. ESPN updates the hard hit leader-board on an almost weekly basis. In this week's update, Kepler ranks in the top-10 (seventh) with Mauer (14th) and Sano (26th) both in the top-30.

 

Questions still remain about the validity of some of these new statistical areas. Statcast is only three years old and some might call it a work-in-progress. The information being provided by this new technology is untested. Statcast continues to add an extra dimension to the baseball world. However, there is much still to be discovered when it comes to this new statistical era.

 

What has Statcast added to your baseball-viewing experience? Did any of the Twins rankings surprise you? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Oldgoat_MN]

The thing I've enjoyed the most about Statcast is the way they track Buxton's unlikely catches. Love it.

Oh yeah, the other stuff's cool, too.

[HitInAPinch]

http://i.imgur.com/S3pXwoW.gif

 

What can I tell ya,  I have problems evolving......

[terrydactyls]

Did it really take analytical studies to determine that hitting a groundball into a shift is not optimal? My two-day old great nephew could tell you that (if he could talk).

[Cody Christie]

 

Did it really take analytical studies to determine that hitting a groundball into a shift is not optimal? My two-day old great nephew could tell you that (if he could talk).

I think they are getting at the fact that all groundballs are not optimal. Not just groundballs into the shift. 

[jimbo92107]

Hulk think line drives good. Higher ones go over fence. Science!

[Cody Christie]

 

Hulk think line drives good. Higher ones go over fence. Science!

http://artofbaseball.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Screen-shot-2012-06-25-at-11.40.38-PM.png

[Bill Brown69]

 

I think they are getting at the fact that all groundballs are not optimal. Not just groundballs into the shift. 

 

The trouble with ground balls into the shift is that is most likely a player trying to lift a pitch that can't be lifted, as in rolling over and hitting it to your pull side. Opposite field ground balls are often hard hit and can do wonders for a batting average. Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, George Brett, Rod Carew all hit a bunch of hard hit, low to negative launch angle balls the other way.

 

Data is great if presented the right way but if every hitter decides they have to average 20 whatever degrees of angle then we could be hitting more grounders into the shift. Seems to me the better approach is to square up what you swing at. Inside and middle it is easy to get the backspin to create the launch angle, away it is probably sinking and moving further away so most times even what you think is square is going to result in a ball that lands before the outfield grass but if there is velocity it has a good chance to get through and it is impossible to shift somebody who uses all fields with any sort of an even distribution of fly balls, liners and grounders.

[Cody Christie]

 

Data is great if presented the right way but if every hitter decides they have to average 20 whatever degrees of angle then we could be hitting more grounders into the shift. Seems to me the better approach is to square up what you swing at. Inside and middle it is easy to get the backspin to create the launch angle, away it is probably sinking and moving further away so most times even what you think is square is going to result in a ball that lands before the outfield grass but if there is velocity it has a good chance to get through and it is impossible to shift somebody who uses all fields with any sort of an even distribution of fly balls, liners and grounders.

 

This Washington Post story talks about the dark side of launch angle.

 

Players like Jason Heyward have struggled at the plate because they end up popping out more than making solid contact.

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Did it really take analytical studies to determine that hitting a groundball into a shift is not optimal? My two-day old great nephew could tell you that (if he could talk).

If your two day old great nephew could talk he'd probably ask you to stop pushing those charts, graphs and heat maps in from of him.

Geez, you fans in Maine start with the analytics early, don't you?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

This Washington Post story talks about the dark side of launch angle.

 

Players like Jason Heyward have struggled at the plate because they end up popping out more than making solid contact.

Heyward's BABIP also went from .329 in 2015 to .281 in 2016.

Now, how much of that was in part due to the launch angle I have absolutely no idea.

[pbrezeasap]

I think I like the defensive stats even more than the offensive ones. Thanks for the link to the baseballsavant site, I hadn't ever been there. I like these charts for Byron Buxton, especially the last one where he caught a ball at a distance that is off of their chart.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player?player_id=621439&pos=CF&player_type=batter&season=2016&tab=defense_tab#

 

[terrydactyls]

If your two day old great nephew could talk he'd probably ask you to stop pushing those charts, graphs and heat maps in from of him.

Geez, you fans in Maine start with the analytics early, don't you?

He's in Florida. Since he isn't old enough for shuffleboard, analytics are the only other source of amusement.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If your two day old great nephew could talk he'd probably ask you to stop pushing those charts, graphs and heat maps in from of him.

Geez, you fans in Maine start with the analytics early, don't you?

my son was born yesterday. I'm reading to him from TD

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

my son was born yesterday. I'm reading to him from TD

Congratulations Sconnie!

Your first? Whatever, you have a great adventure ahead of you.

I truly am smiling for you.

Peace

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Congratulations Sconnie!

Your first? Whatever, you have a great adventure ahead of you.

I truly am smiling for you.

Peace

thanks! He's my second. I also have a 3 year old daughter, when I was home for parental leave with her, I finally after 2 years went from Lurker to Poster.

 

Seems like parenthood and TD go well together for me and my children.

[Cody Christie]

 

I think I like the defensive stats even more than the offensive ones. Thanks for the link to the baseballsavant site, I hadn't ever been there. I like these charts for Byron Buxton, especially the last one where he caught a ball at a distance that is off of their chart.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player?player_id=621439&pos=CF&player_type=batter&season=2016&tab=defense_tab#

It's a fun site to play around on.

[Doomtints]

Statcast isn't really "analytical" -- it's data. Until all of the data becomes publicly available we will only be scratching the surface of what the data is saying.

 

Teams are no doubt able to look at this stuff more than we can. 

 

It's in baseball's best interest to release all of the data, unless they don't trust it. It will start a new age of baseball analysis and increase fan excitement.

[Oxtung]

Average exit velocity is an emotionally exciting stat but the data so far have shown that what really matters is how many balls are hit >95 mph. Balls exiting at 80 mph go for hits at the same rates as those at 90 mph. It isn't until 95 mph that there is a change in batting average and slugging.

[D.C Twins]

Miguel "Gone-O" Sano.....shortened. Miguel "Gono" Sano

[mikelink45]

I am wearing out on analytics.  I like base hits, fast base runners, and putting the ball in play (not K's).   I believe in speed, I like power that does not give away 1/3rd of the season, and I believe in fielding.  Pitching is great when there are K's and when the fielders catch what is hit.  We can analyze all we want but it is still throw, hit,and catch that creates the season results.