Free Justin Haley.....more importantly Free-up a roster spot!

[nmcowboy]

Can we please release Justin Haley?  Why is he still taking up a roster spot?  Has he pitched in the last several weeks.  I realize as a Rule 5 player we lose him, but I don't see it as a loss.

Any thoughts?

[yarnivek1972]

This is one of those "are we a contender or not" arguments.  If you believe you are contending, Haley has no business being on the roster.  If you believe you won't, it MIGHT be worth taking a chance to see if he can be somebody that can help in the future.

[goulik]

 

This is one of those "are we a contender or not" arguments.  If you believe you are contending, Haley has no business being on the roster.  If you believe you won't, it MIGHT be worth taking a chance to see if he can be somebody that can help in the future.

And THAT is still the big question...

Here we sit on top of the division still much to all of our surprise and as we examine the team we see so many pitching flaws that we can't help asking ourselves, "when will this bubble burst?"

To be honest, so far, this team reminds me a lot of the 1987 team. Do you remember our starting pitchers NOT named Blyleven or Viola? I do and there were some BAD names there and yet somehow we just kept hanging around and hung around through the World Series. 
I am by no means saying this team is gonna win the World Series but will that bubble burst or is the rest of the division so bad we can make the post season and if we make the post season, can 3 good starters and a very limited BP carry us again? Is Sano this teams version of Kirby? 

Suddenly I feel like I shoulda started a thread instead of this long reply...

Hmm, Haley... I don't know what the right answer is there...

[Oldgoat_MN]

It occurs to me that Haley is on the roster simply because of ego. Falvine do not want to let him go because they drafted him. Honestly cannot think of another reason. If he was already on the Twins when the new FO took over he wouldn't have even been considered for an MLB roster spot.

He was OK in AAA last year, but we have Baxendale, Rucinski and Busenitz all putting up better numbers in AAA this year than Haley managed last year in AAA. And I know he's a lefty, but as someone else pointed out, Baxendale's numbers against LH batters is better than what Haley posted last year.

 

If Haley was 23 years old I would figure they must have long range plans for him. That perhaps he is a hidden gem. He is 26 years old in 3 or 4 weeks. I don't get it.

[drjim]

 

It occurs to me that Haley is on the roster simply because of ego. Falvine do not want to let him go because they drafted him. Honestly cannot think of another reason. If he was already on the Twins when the new FO took over he wouldn't have even been considered for an MLB roster spot.

He was OK in AAA last year, but we have Baxendale, Rucinski and Busenitz all putting up better numbers in AAA this year than Haley managed last year in AAA. And I know he's a lefty, but as someone else pointed out, Baxendale's numbers against LH batters is better than what Haley posted last year.

 

If Haley was 23 years old I would figure they must have long range plans for him. That perhaps he is a hidden gem. He is 26 years old in 3 or 4 weeks. I don't get it.

 

Ego, eh?

 

Obviously the front office thinks he is an asset worth keeping, and so far they have been able to hide him and maintain a functioning roster. This last part is going to get squeezed soon. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up on the DL soon. His shoulder is starting to feel "sore".

[nicksaviking]

I'll wait a bit longer than the middle of May to decide if ego is the reason why Haley is still on the roster. I'm sure the new guys would prefer not to be wrong about their Rule V choice and perhaps that is why he has been kept instead of Terry Ryan's guys who have already been DFA'd.

 

Or it could have been because they knew there was always the possibility that Tonkin and Santana may pass through waivers and be retained, where as there is next to no possibility of retaining Haley if they took action on him.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Does the immortal Les Straker qualify? I think he was the #3 starter in '87.

 

 

It's certainly was an appropriate name.  What did the Twins need in 1987 and 1988?  Les(s) Straker...

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

 

He was OK in AAA last year, but we have Baxendale, Rucinski and Busenitz all putting up better numbers in AAA this year than Haley managed last year in AAA. And I know he's a lefty, but as someone else pointed out, Baxendale's numbers against LH batters is better than what Haley posted last year.

 

All the pitchers you mentioned throw right-handed, including Haley.

(This doesn't contradict your overall point at all, of course.)

[ryandw34]

I don't really have an issue with him on the roster at this point.  When he does pitch it is mostly in mop up duty.  Worth giving him a little bit longer to see what he can offer before moving on.  If he fails to impress or the Twins are actually in contention then they can cut him loose.

 

The issue I had was when he was activated from his rehab assignment after 2 days rather than leaving him down for the 30 day limit.  That would have given some time try someone else but with Wilk being added to the 40 man I'm not sure what options were left to try out.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

All the pitchers you mentioned throw right-handed, including Haley.

(This doesn't contradict your overall point at all, of course.)

I spaced that. Thanks for the correction.

[Doomtints]

There is no reason to cut him, his performance is typical of a Rule 5 rookie pitcher. He had one terrible outing on a day when every Twins pitcher was getting smacked around, but otherwise his ups & downs have been pretty standard fare.

 

I could see him finishing out the year with an ERA around 4.00 and I'm sure the Twins feel the same.

[Doomtints]

 

It's certainly was an appropriate name.  What did the Twins need in 1987 and 1988?  Les(s) Straker...

 

Straker had 2.2 WAR in 1987.  He also had a 0.9 WAR the following year in spite of spending most of the year on the DL -- good for 6th best pitcher WAR on the team.

1989 started MacPhail's complete rebuild of the pitching staff. Straker stayed with the Twins in the minors, but the Twins felt like he never fully recovered from his injury.  He ended up with the Expos AAA affiliate in 1990 and, sure enough, he was injured right away and retired.

 

The point is there are more deserving Twins pitchers to pick on.

[ashbury]

His age and resume suggested drafting him only if you needed to plug an immediate hole in the rotation. Hiding him in the bullpen would be appropriate if he were some different pitcher with a chance to be better in a year or three. We've now had 7 pitchers this season get the ball for the first inning, and Haley hasn't been one of them. I was puzzled by the selection (and even moreso by the tactics involved), and see no reason to invest further time with him, given that guys like Tepesch have gotten the call in preference to him. He's got AAA stuff, apparently, so let him toil in Pawtucket, or Rochester if the Red Sox and the rest of the majors say "nah, we're good".

[bighat]

Haley seems to be around as insurance for blowouts.  The Twins are losing 10-0 in the 5th?  Let Haley save the rest of the 'pen from unnecessary duties.  His role on the team is not crucial, but every team needs a guy like that.  The Twins are sticking with Haley for now in that role because they are evaluating the rest of the guys.  It appears Haley's been evaluated and since he's on the 40-man the team is fine with letting him be "that guy", for now.  I'm not thrilled, but not many fans are thrilled with their team's mop-up man. 

[John Kelsey]

He kind of reminds me of Duffey with significantly worse stuff. His fastball is slower and his breaking ball isn't nearly as sharp. 

 

I really don't see any potential there and would have gotten rid of him already. 

[yarnivek1972]

 

Straker had 2.2 WAR in 1987.  He also had a 0.9 WAR the following year in spite of spending most of the year on the DL -- good for 6th best pitcher WAR on the team.

1989 started MacPhail's complete rebuild of the pitching staff. Straker stayed with the Twins in the minors, but the Twins felt like he never fully recovered from his injury.  He ended up with the Expos AAA affiliate in 1990 and, sure enough, he was injured right away and retired.

 

The point is there are more deserving Twins pitchers to pick on.

 

 

99 K vs 84 BB in 237 career IP.  Neither is a good number, especially for that era.  I have no idea how WAR is calculated, but for Straker to have a WAR over 2 in 1987 seems ridiculous to me.  Yeah, here you go: Juan Berenguer's WAR in 1987 was 2.0, LOWER than Straker's.   Jeff Reardon's was .7. Tell me with a straight face that Straker was more important to the 1987 Twins than Berenguer and Reardon.  It tells me that WAR is not a very reliable way to compare players.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

To be honest, so far, this team reminds me a lot of the 1987 team. Do you remember our starting pitchers NOT named Blyleven or Viola? I do and there were some BAD names there and yet somehow we just kept hanging around and hung around through the World Series.

 

This is a huge fallacy

 

Yes, Les Straker  ended up being the Twins' third best pitcher there but, if you remember, they started the season, in addition to Viola and Blyleven, with a veteran workhorse who pitched 198+ innings the 4 previous seasons, named Mike Smithson (who fell apart during the season) and a former top prospect who had a very promising 1986 season Mark Portugal (who also fell apart during the season) as their 3rd and 4th starters, with Straker rounding up as the 5th (occasional back then) starter.   When Portugal and Smithson bombed, MacPhail replaced them with a future Hall of Famer (Steve Carlton) and a veteran of 20 years who had a 3.50 ERA with the Yankees in 1987 (and ended up winning 221 games), Joe Niekro who gave one of the most memorable performances of a Twin ever (in the David Letterman show.)

 

Not remembering Smithson and Portugal is excusable.  Not remembering Carlton and Niekro, is not...

[Loosey]

Regarding Haley.  If they do like him so much, what would it take to trade for him and send him down to AAA?  

 

In my opinion, if they are not willing to part with a minor league prospect or a PTBNL is Haley worth keeping?  Because he is basically a prospect that happens to be on the major league roster.  

 

If I were the Twins that is the analysis I would do regarding Haley.  

[Doomtints]

 

99 K vs 84 BB in 237 career IP.  Neither is a good number, especially for that era.  I have no idea how WAR is calculated, but for Straker to have a WAR over 2 in 1987 seems ridiculous to me.  Yeah, here you go: Juan Berenguer's WAR in 1987 was 2.0, LOWER than Straker's.   Jeff Reardon's was .7. Tell me with a straight face that Straker was more important to the 1987 Twins than Berenguer and Reardon.  It tells me that WAR is not a very reliable way to compare players.

 

I have looked at numbers a lot over the years and have learned that fighting them is a futile effort.  But if you need to hear a human-touch story to make sense of what the numbers are telling you:

 

Reardon had a slow start. He learned how to throw Blyleven's curveball around midseason which tossed all scouting reports about him out the window. Nevertheless, his slow start was not erased from the books. He was much better in 1988, and who wouldn't be after mastering a curve ball like that?

 

As for Berenguer, did you know he was a failed starter in 1987?  Straker was deemed a better choice to start for the Twins than Berenguer.  Juan was a feast-or-famine pitcher, as you can see by looking at his 10+ ERA in the 87 World Series.

[Thrylos]

As far as Haley goes, he is third on the pen (behind Pressly and Duffey) in K-BB%.  He has been punished by a 25% HR/FB rate that should hopefully normalize.   If I were to get rid of pitchers, Belisle and Wilk would be ahead of Haley in my list.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

99 K vs 84 BB in 237 career IP.  Neither is a good number, especially for that era.  I have no idea how WAR is calculated, but for Straker to have a WAR over 2 in 1987 seems ridiculous to me.  Yeah, here you go: Juan Berenguer's WAR in 1987 was 2.0, LOWER than Straker's.   Jeff Reardon's was .7. Tell me with a straight face that Straker was more important to the 1987 Twins than Berenguer and Reardon.  It tells me that WAR is not a very reliable way to compare players.

Straker had 26 starts that year, with an above-average ERA+.  A slightly better ERA than Reardon in almost twice the innings, in fact, and a comparable ERA in more innings than Berenguer too.  Also Berenguer wasn't really a high leverage setup man -- he did a lot of long relief / mop-up work, especially early in the season.  Through August, the Twins had a 12-16 record in games that Berenguer relieved in.

 

The peripherals were ugly, but in 1987, Straker got the job done.  2.2 WAR sounds about right.

[Mill1634]

Haley has been used in mop up, that is it. I don't really see the need to get rid of him at this point. The FO thinks he could be something, which is why they took him. Unless we are going to replace him with a better reliever, I wouldn't get rid of him. I'd get rid of Wilk/Besilie/Breslow before Haley. 

[drjim]

 

This is a huge fallacy

 

Yes, Les Straker  ended up being the Twins' third best pitcher there but, if you remember, they started the season, in addition to Viola and Blyleven, with a veteran workhorse who pitched 198+ innings the 4 previous seasons, named Mike Smithson (who fell apart during the season) and a former top prospect who had a very promising 1986 season Mark Portugal (who also fell apart during the season) as their 3rd and 4th starters, with Straker rounding up as the 5th (occasional back then) starter.   When Portugal and Smithson bombed, MacPhail replaced them with a future Hall of Famer (Steve Carlton) and a veteran of 20 years who had a 3.50 ERA with the Yankees in 1987 (and ended up winning 221 games), Joe Niekro who gave one of the most memorable performances of a Twin ever (in the David Letterman show.)

 

Not remembering Smithson and Portugal is excusable.  Not remembering Carlton and Niekro, is not...

 

Consider how Carlton pitched, not remembering that he was on the 87 team is very excusable.

[yarnivek1972]

Straker had 26 starts that year, with an above-average ERA+. A slightly better ERA than Reardon in almost twice the innings, in fact, and a comparable ERA in more innings than Berenguer too. Also Berenguer wasn't really a high leverage setup man -- he did a lot of long relief / mop-up work, especially early in the season. Through August, the Twins had a 12-16 record in games that Berenguer relieved in.

 

The peripherals were ugly, but in 1987, Straker got the job done. 2.2 WAR sounds about right.

The Twins were 11-20 in the games Straker started.

[goulik]

This is a huge fallacy

 

Yes, Les Straker  ended up being the Twins' third best pitcher there but, if you remember, they started the season, in addition to Viola and Blyleven, with a veteran workhorse who pitched 198+ innings the 4 previous seasons, named Mike Smithson (who fell apart during the season) and a former top prospect who had a very promising 1986 season Mark Portugal (who also fell apart during the season) as their 3rd and 4th starters, with Straker rounding up as the 5th (occasional back then) starter.   When Portugal and Smithson bombed, MacPhail replaced them with a future Hall of Famer (Steve Carlton) and a veteran of 20 years who had a 3.50 ERA with the Yankees in 1987 (and ended up winning 221 games), Joe Niekro who gave one of the most memorable performances of a Twin ever (in the David Letterman show.)

 

Not remembering Smithson and Portugal is excusable.  Not remembering Carlton and Niekro, is not...

Wow, that was quite an assumption...Actaully, Portugal is the only one of those starting pitchers named that I had forgotten. I remember well Carlton and Niekro and I remember what they did that season, where they were in their careers, and where they were by the time the post season rolled around. Guess you missed my point

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins were 11-20 in the games Straker started.

Not quite. 10-16 in his starts.  Straker also made 5 relief appearances.

 

In any case, the point of it was to say, Berenguer wasn't really being leveraged like a top setup man, so he doesn't get a huge bonus for that.  So with fewer innings, and not a hugely better performance, it's perfectly logical to expect his WAR to be roughly equal to that of Straker for 1987.

 

You obviously wouldn't trust Straker in the postseason or beyond, but that's projection looking forward.  Looking backward, at that regular season, I think it's fair to peg his contributions as similar to those of Berenguer.

 

And even WAR proponents don't assign it any extreme precision -- with a 0.2 WAR difference separating the two, it's quite possible that Berenguer was more valuable under any reasonable margin of error.  But they're probably in a comparable bucket.

[nmcowboy]

 

Can we please release Justin Haley?  Why is he still taking up a roster spot?  Has he pitched in the last several weeks.  I realize as a Rule 5 player we lose him, but I don't see it as a loss.

Any thoughts?

Guess Falvine were catching up on their reading and finally read Twins Daily posts!

[Craig Arko]

Guess Falvine were catching up on their reading and finally read Twins Daily posts!

Not holding my breath on that...