Kennys Vargas

[mlhouse]

 

I agree that he is getting his chances and I'm reasonable enough to be Ok with some bench time but when he isn't in the starting lineup in 2 of the past 3... I get preemptively concerned because I've seen it before.  

 

I disagree that it's a logjam. You need actual logs for that.

 

Plouffe and Sano was never a log jam... Plouffe didn't perform well enough to be a log. Is Mauer a log?  In my opinion... No. Grossman isn't a log either. 

 

Mauer should play but Mauer is not clearly out performing Vargas. This ain't a log jam... it is something that can managed with a little imagination. 

 

Vargas is one of the symptoms of the Twins approach to player development.  He has been in the Twins organization since he was 18 years old, he has 3 stints in the major leagues, and now he will turn 27 during this season......yet we really don't now what we have.

 

The Twins have never just given him the opportunity to play regularly, face the entire rotation of opposition, and get a sample that they can say he is a major league player, or he is not.   After his first callup in 2014, when he hit 9 HRs in 215 ABs and had a .772 OPS the Twins should have just given him a full time job in 2015, split time as DH and 1B, and project him out to at least 400 plate appearances.  But what did they do, send him down to AA and AAA.  

 

Same situation in 2016, when he hit 10 home runs in just 152 ABs.  He had a low batting average but his 883 OPS was second amongst all players on the team.  How does those performances not rate a "He has earned a fulltime shot with the big league team?"  

 

Why can't this team commit to a guy and see what he can do without jacking him around, up and down the minor leagues?  Maybe they have the right instincts and Vargas really cannot be a full time major league player, or even a major league player at all.  But, when you have 90+ loss seasons you need to evalaute players, not stick has beens in the lineup to pretend you are trying to win.  

[drjim]

 

Vargas is one of the symptoms of the Twins approach to player development.  He has been in the Twins organization since he was 18 years old, he has 3 stints in the major leagues, and now he will turn 27 during this season......yet we really don't now what we have.

 

The Twins have never just given him the opportunity to play regularly, face the entire rotation of opposition, and get a sample that they can say he is a major league player, or he is not.   After his first callup in 2014, when he hit 9 HRs in 215 ABs and had a .772 OPS the Twins should have just given him a full time job in 2015, split time as DH and 1B, and project him out to at least 400 plate appearances.  But what did they do, send him down to AA and AAA.  

 

Same situation in 2016, when he hit 10 home runs in just 152 ABs.  He had a low batting average but his 883 OPS was second amongst all players on the team.  How does those performances not rate a "He has earned a fulltime shot with the big league team?"  

 

Why can't this team commit to a guy and see what he can do without jacking him around, up and down the minor leagues?  Maybe they have the right instincts and Vargas really cannot be a full time major league player, or even a major league player at all.  But, when you have 90+ loss seasons you need to evalaute players, not stick has beens in the lineup to pretend you are trying to win.  

 

I'd go the other way. To me, Vargas is an example of how fans overrate marginal big leaguers, especially if said player could fill a clear team need. If the team would have developed him differently or just left him alone gave him more time he would magically turn into something that he isn't.

 

He's performing basically exactly how one should expect from his minor league numbers. He's a fine stop gap, part time dh/1b and bench bat, but really doesn't provide enough other value to make up for ok, but not great, batting line (especially his low obp) to ever be much more.

[stringer bell]

Vargas is a guy who can only help with his bat. Very difficult to keep him in the lineup when he's not hitting.

[jokin]

 

It appears that many of these posts take into account that Kennys Vargas is a defensive liability. According to FanGraphs there were 45 players in MLB who played 250 innings or more at 1B in 2016. As far as defensive metrics, Kenny Vargas was the 5th rated 1B in MLB last year among those 45 players.
So far in 2017 49 players have played 50 innings or more at 1B. Mauer is rated 4th best defensively. Vargas is rated 9th best.

Now I believe that defensive metrics are an evolving measure. I don’t necessarily take this as meaning there are only 4 players in MLB better than Vargas at 1B, but using statistics it appears that Kennys is not all that bad.

Actually, it looks like he’s pretty good.

 

Yep, well-stated. Anyone who asserts that Vargas is "bad" defensively at 1B just hasn't been watching him play this year.

[jokin]

 

I'd go the other way. To me, Vargas is an example of how fans overrate marginal big leaguers, especially if said player could fill a clear team need. If the team would have developed him differently or just left him alone gave him more time he would magically turn into something that he isn't.

 

He's performing basically exactly how one should expect from his minor league numbers. He's a fine stop gap, part time dh/1b and bench bat, but really doesn't provide enough other value to make up for ok, but not great, batting line (especially his low obp) to ever be much more.

 

That's pretty much how Terry had Vargas evaluated. He would have been gone had Ryan been retained, and we'd be having this same debate about Park's weaknesses. The new management must have seen something in Vargas to give it one more shot and they must have seen something in Park sufficient enough to remove him from the 40-man.

[drjim]

That's pretty much how Terry had Vargas evaluated. He would have been gone had Ryan been retained, and we'd be having this same debate about Park's weaknesses. The new management must have seen something in Vargas to give it one more shot and they must have seen something in Park sufficient enough to remove him from the 40-man.

I'd take Vargas over Park too. Ryan likely would have rolled with Park because he had money invested.

 

Vargas has some value, especially while making the minumum, but probably time to stop pretending he's something more than he is. Playing him more just to find this out is not all that necessary.

[mlhouse]

 

I'd go the other way. To me, Vargas is an example of how fans overrate marginal big leaguers, especially if said player could fill a clear team need. If the team would have developed him differently or just left him alone gave him more time he would magically turn into something that he isn't.

 

He's performing basically exactly how one should expect from his minor league numbers. He's a fine stop gap, part time dh/1b and bench bat, but really doesn't provide enough other value to make up for ok, but not great, batting line (especially his low obp) to ever be much more.

 

 

I make no claims to what Kennys Vargas would be as a player so it is impossible for me to "overrate" them.  However, somewhere you need to make a commitment to developing the players and let them play.  

 

Methodically plodding them along in the minors and then bouncing them back and forth between the majors and the minors is a ridiculous approach to rebuilding a team.  If you have concluded that Vargas is a "stop gap" player, then move on from him.  There is no reason to give such a player more time, blocking another player that should be up on the big league roster developing and being evaluated.  Get Mitch Garver up and split him between C and DH, maybe some 1B.  Give Daniel Palka a shot.  Bring up Zach Granite as the 4th OF and keep Robbie Grossman as the regular DH. 

 

The problem with the Twins approach is because of the way they have handled a player like Vargas, they simply are not sure.  So they will piddle with him here and piddle with him there.  Never fully committing but then never saying no.  Some of it, particularly for a player of the Vargas type they don't want to have another David Ortiz.  

[drjim]

I think the Twins are sure of Vargas and they have him in the role that allow him to provide the most value.

 

There's no reason to jettison him unless there's a clear upgrade. Those guys mentioned are not clear upgrades. They'll get a chance at some point, but other than maybe Palka they'll have different roles, it's not a clear swap out situation.

[Riverbrian]

 

Vargas is one of the symptoms of the Twins approach to player development.  He has been in the Twins organization since he was 18 years old, he has 3 stints in the major leagues, and now he will turn 27 during this season......yet we really don't now what we have.

 

The Twins have never just given him the opportunity to play regularly, face the entire rotation of opposition, and get a sample that they can say he is a major league player, or he is not.   After his first callup in 2014, when he hit 9 HRs in 215 ABs and had a .772 OPS the Twins should have just given him a full time job in 2015, split time as DH and 1B, and project him out to at least 400 plate appearances.  But what did they do, send him down to AA and AAA.  

 

Same situation in 2016, when he hit 10 home runs in just 152 ABs.  He had a low batting average but his 883 OPS was second amongst all players on the team.  How does those performances not rate a "He has earned a fulltime shot with the big league team?"  

 

Why can't this team commit to a guy and see what he can do without jacking him around, up and down the minor leagues?  Maybe they have the right instincts and Vargas really cannot be a full time major league player, or even a major league player at all.  But, when you have 90+ loss seasons you need to evalaute players, not stick has beens in the lineup to pretend you are trying to win.  

 

Personally... I need to be careful posting about Vargas because it's a topic that I have crossed the line with by over-hammering my points. 

 

 

I have no idea if Vargas is going to make it or not. I'm not standing on a soapbox saying that he will be a solid contributor in the major leagues 5 years from now.

 

I just know that I like him. There are some who disagree with me but I believe that he has 40 home run potential and if he learns to manage the strike zone better... it might be 40 home runs with a decent OBP. 

 

I believe he was flat out wronged in August 2016 after OPS'ing over 1,000 in July. He lost his job when players came back from injury.

 

I believe benching a guy when he is hot will lead to a label of inconsistent because he is not allowed to continue being hot. 

 

I believe that if you send a guy to Rochester in August after he OPS's over a thousand in July that will mess him up. Make him think that he has to hit 6 run homers to have a career. 

 

I believe that Dozier is allowed to struggle with no consequences but Vargas is not given the same benefit despite Vargas producing at an equal level at the plate.  

 

I believe we have a manager going with who he thinks will do better over a player who is doing better and that is hubris.  

 

I believe it is a manager going with an OLDER player who he thinks will do better over a YOUNGER player who is actually doing better during a year where they are going absolutely nowhere is a mistake and a rather large one potentially. 

 

I believe that even after you listen to all of the discussion about Vargas and all the reasons that people believe that he is a bench piece tops... after all of the discussion about inconsistency... lefty... righty... Strikeout Ratios... On Base percentage. If you look just look at all of those bad stats that make people not believe in Vargas... Vargas has still out performed nearly everybody currently on the team with those bad stats.  

 

All is my opinion of course... And I have been wrong before. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Vargas is a guy who can only help with his bat. Very difficult to keep him in the lineup when he's not hitting.

 

And it is very hard to have him help with the bat when he is not in the lineup. 

[jimbo92107]

Hey, did anybody find out the velocity of that game-tying Vargas screamer to center field? It looked like about 118 mph to me. 

[mlhouse]

 

Personally... I need to be careful posting about Vargas because it's a topic that I have crossed the line with by over-hammering my points. 

 

 

I have no idea if Vargas is going to make it or not. I'm not standing on a soapbox saying that he will be a solid contributor in the major leagues 5 years from now.

 

I just know that I like him. There are some who disagree with me but I believe that he has 40 home run potential and if he learns to manage the strike zone better... it might be 40 home runs with a decent OBP. 

 

I believe he was flat out wronged in August 2016 after OPS'ing over 1,000 in July. He lost his job when players came back from injury.

 

I believe benching a guy when he is hot will lead to a label of inconsistent because he is not allowed to continue being hot. 

 

I believe that if you send a guy to Rochester in August after he OPS's over a thousand in July that will mess him up. Make him think that he has to hit 6 run homers to have a career. 

 

I believe that Dozier is allowed to struggle with no consequences but Vargas is not given the same benefit despite Vargas producing at an equal level at the plate.  

 

I believe we have a manager going with who he thinks will do better over a player who is doing better and that is hubris.  

 

I believe it is a manager going with an OLDER player who he thinks will do better over a YOUNGER player who is actually doing better during a year where they are going absolutely nowhere is a mistake and a rather large one potentially. 

 

I believe that even after you listen to all of the discussion about Vargas and all the reasons that people believe that he is a bench piece tops... after all of the discussion about inconsistency... lefty... righty... Strikeout Ratios... On Base percentage. If you look just look at all of those bad stats that make people not believe in Vargas... Vargas has still out performed nearly everybody currently on the team with those bad stats.  

 

All is my opinion of course... And I have been wrong before. 

 

 

The Twins have made these errors over and over again.  Like I have said over and over in this forum, and suffered some of the same issues you have with the "Owners" of the site, for whatever reason the Twins management, both old and new, have some weird preference in bringing in failed prospects of other teams over their own.  

 

Why bring up players like Adam Wilk, Drew Rucinski, and Nick Tepesch ahead of your best pitching prospect JJ Berios, and other prospects like David Hurlbut?  I have no clue if Hurlbut is going to be even a marginal major league pitcher, and to a certain degree I defer to the Twins organization in having more insight to the performance of these guys (although as a Fort Myers resident I have seen Hurlbut pitch on several occasions).  But not giving him a chance is a completely different story.  We make room for guys like Tepesch who we pretty much know are just replacement level and ignore our own.  

[yarnivek1972]

Paul Molitor needs to get out of his way. Pinch hitting Eduardo Escobar? REALLY???

 

I get Vargas has not hit LHP THIS year, but in his career that is actually his better side.

 

Dumb. Just absolutely DUMB

[Bill Brown69]

Vargas had 5 LOB today. Top 4 in the lineup had 11-20 if you count walks and we score 4 stinking runs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I like Vargas but dig a bit before you blast the pinch hitting.

Although it was just perfect that EE left 2 on, Rosario 3, Polanco 1, Castro 2. The only starters who didn't have a mark in the LOB category were Buxton and Dozier. 

 

Molitor made a poor move today by removing Hughes. Down by 5 with a sniff at getting back in it, when you get nothing send Hughes back out and take one for the team in a doubleheader. Molly lucked out to get by with 3 pitchers in the first game.

[yarnivek1972]

Vargas had 5 LOB today. Top 4 in the lineup had 11-20 if you count walks and we score 4 stinking runs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I like Vargas but dig a bit before you blast the pinch hitting.

Although it was just perfect that EE left 2 on, Rosario 3, Polanco 1, Castro 2. The only starters who didn't have a mark in the LOB category were Buxton and Dozier.

 

Molitor made a poor move today by removing Hughes. Down by 5 with a sniff at getting back in it, when you get nothing send Hughes back out and take one for the team in a doubleheader. Molly lucked out to get by with 3 pitchers in the first game.

Eduardo Escobar shouldn't be pinch hitting for anyone. Let alone a guy who is capable of launching one into the seats.

 

I am quite aware that Vargas had 5 LOB. He also has has 5 HR and 15 RBI in 50 AB. He needs to keep getting his swings. Sooner or later, he'll find his right handed swing.

 

Slot him behind Sano for an entire month and I bet good things will happen.

[stringer bell]

IIRC, Vargas minor league history also indicates he is far better as a LH hitter. I heard someone from the Twins organization say that last year was a surprise because of the reverse of his splits. He looks much better LH this year for sure.

[yarnivek1972]

IIRC, Vargas minor league history also indicates he is far better as a LH hitter. I heard someone from the Twins organization say that last year was a surprise because of the reverse of his splits. He looks much better LH this year for sure.

I looked at the numbers going back to 2013. Don't know if his numbers from A ball or lower have much relevance. Kind of a mixed bag. It looks like he definitely hits for more power left handed. But in some seasons he hit for a higher average right handed. That actually is the case at the MLB level. His ISO as a RHB is .150 ish and it is over .200 as a LHB.

 

Disclaimer: BR lumps minor and major league splits together in their minor league splits page.

[jorgenswest]

It takes so many plate appearances for slash stats to be reliable. Players just don't get enough at bats against lefties to give confidence that the data indicates a skill. In Vargas's case, the opposing pitcher's pitch mix probably matters more than his handedness.

[Doomtints]

 

I agree, keep him in the lineup, sit Mauer if necessary.

But for the record, the PH HR came on a change up.

 

Yep. I am aware that's what people said in the press. However, I looked at the film. You should too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yep. I am aware that's what people said in the press. However, I looked at the film. You should too.

What do you believe the pitch was?

 

Herrera throws a changeup with an average speed of 89.9mph.

 

The pitch to Vargas was 89.9mph.

 

Herrera's other average pitch speeds:

Fastball: 97.4mph

Slider: 86.2mph

Curve: 81.0mph but he hasn't thrown it this year according to FG

 

The way the ball looped, it looked like a changeup. It was either a typical changeup from Herrera or the worst looping slider he's ever thrown (and +3.8mph).

 

I'm not ruling out that it wasn't a changeup but it sure behaved like a changeup and was delivered at the speed of a Herrera changeup.

[USAFChief]

Yep. I am aware that's what people said in the press. However, I looked at the film. You should too.

if you can't recognize a changeup from watching the film, you could go find the post game interview, where Vargas says it was a changeup.

[ashbury]

if you can't recognize a changeup from watching the film, you could go find the post game interview, where Vargas says it was a changeup.

"History is written by the victors." - Winston Churchill.

[DocBauer]

My 2 cents...which echoes a lot already said:

 

Vargas has looked solid at 1B this season, if not fine. SSS maybe, but he's not deficient.

 

He has proven in the past to hit well RH. But if he is ultimately better from the LH side, that's not a bad thing. He will SO on occasion but is not immune to BB. He has an idea at the plate and has big power.

 

Past history indicates he can and should hit better from the TH than he is so far this season. I don't object to a gut feeling to OH for anyone. But let him play and grow! You might have something Here!

 

Lastly, between OF, DH and 1B, there is plenty of room for Grossman, Vargas and Mayer to all play most days. This shouldn't be an issue, much less a problem