Berrios Love Thread/Time for the Twins to push their chips in?

[Willihammer]

Berrios!

 

http://www.pitcherlist.com/jose-berrios-curveball-the-nastiest-pitching-gifs-from-thursdays-games/

[Willihammer]

That's a hell of a pitch but I maintain the one to Arenado in the fourth was even nastier. Knee. Buckling.

 

@ 13 second mark

http://m.mlb.com/video/v1403400183/colmin-berrios-strikes-out-11-over-7-23-innings/?query=berrios

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Question: is xFIP a good stat to use for a pitcher? Not very familiar with it but I noticed Berrios has an xFIP of 4.16 while an ERA of 0.59 and only 4 hits allowed. Does it have to do with the amount of fly balls he's allowed? 

 

Yes.  His BABIP is absurdly low, so that's why he has a 2.06 FIP above that 0.59 ERA.

 

His xFIP adds a couple runs on top of that because of the fly ball / HR factor. Primarily due to his first start, vs. Cleveland.  Only 4 K's in 27 batters faced, with 13 fly balls.  League HR/FB rate is like 12%, so xFIP is thinking Berrios could have given up 1-2 HR that day.  Add a couple more men on base due to BABIP, and he has a 5.64 xFIP for that one outing.

 

Second start was much better in that regard, 11 K's in 27 batters faced, with only 6 fly balls.  1.34 FIP, 2.67 xFIP.  Which is outstanding.

[TheLeviathan]

 

We could be over-rating the difference between the MLB and MiLB balls too. Just because some players think they are meaningfully different doesn't mean it's actually true.  A lot of recent MLB players were wearing necklaces that they believed impacted their performance too...

 

Which might be fine.....if there was a good reason.  An extra nickel a baseball or whatever it is, is a preposterously arrogant and stupid reason.

[USAFChief]

I thought we determined earlier that the issue was production capacity...the company that manufactures MLB balls doesn't have the capacity to produce enough for all the minor leagues too.

 

I could be misremembering that.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I thought we determined earlier that the issue was production capacity...the company that manufactures MLB balls doesn't have the capacity to produce enough for all the minor leagues too.

 

I could be misremembering that.

 

At least that would be a good reason outside of baseball's control.  I would think they could find another way, but at least that's not penny pinching.

[Doomtints]

 

Nope.

 

Yep.

Berrios says the difference this year is confidence. Nothing more. Does he have this confidence if he did not settle in with a dominant role in the minors?

Don't second-guess success. Why would you do that?

[Doomtints]

 

I thought we determined earlier that the issue was production capacity...the company that manufactures MLB balls doesn't have the capacity to produce enough for all the minor leagues too.

 

I could be misremembering that.

 

That was someone's guess in the discussion thread.

Likely the issue is cost.

 

Also remember that not every minor league uses the same ball, either. No doubt some leagues use the MLB ball. The Twins could foot the bill for real balls if they felt it was important (and it is).

[Mr. Brooks]

I thought we determined earlier that the issue was production capacity...the company that manufactures MLB balls doesn't have the capacity to produce enough for all the minor leagues too.

 

I could be misremembering that.

Isn't the solution to that to build another factory?

I mean Wal-Mart didn't just open one store then turn the rest of the customer base away. Only a company that hates profit would do that.

 

I think its more likely a case of cheapness, with "production capacity" being a convenient excuse.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Isn't the solution to that to build another factory?
I mean Wal-Mart didn't just open one store then turn the rest of the customer base away. Only a company that hates profit would do that.

I think its more likely a case of cheapness, with "production capacity" being a convenient excuse.

 

And just so I didn't take this too far afield - I wonder how many other young talents have similar issues with the transition between the two different forms of equipment.  Berrios can't be the only one.

[USAFChief]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/four-perspectives-how-do-mlb-and-milb-balls-differ/

 

Fangraphs' take.

[Doomtints]

 

Question: is xFIP a good stat to use for a pitcher? Not very familiar with it but I noticed Berrios has an xFIP of 4.16 while an ERA of 0.59 and only 4 hits allowed. Does it have to do with the amount of fly balls he's allowed? 

 

xFIP matches up with reality more than FIP does. But we are working with really small sample sizes here. Even if his xFIP looked awesome, Berrios is still likely to lay an egg soon. Teams are going to adjust.

 

Small sample sizes aside, I would retire xFIP and FIP altogether and just look at SIERA. It has mathematically been proven to be more reliable. Just use the FIPs for minor leaguers and for producing pained sighs when other people use them without knowing what they represent -- which is almost always.

 

[jokin]

 

Yep.

Berrios says the difference this year is confidence. Nothing more. Does he have this confidence if he did not settle in with a dominant role in the minors?

Don't second-guess success. Why would you do that?

 

Because second-guessing comes with the territory? Mejia automatically over Berrios? I don't think so.

 

I would have started the season with 4 starters and 13 pitchers. Sort out the pen with the extra pitcher and determined who was ready to be effective immediately, using Mejia in long relief, NOT starting, keeping Berrios on Rochester rotation schedule consistent for when the first 5 day stretch came about for the Twins to move him up. 

 

Simple.

[Doomtints]

 

Because second-guessing comes with the territory? Mejia automatically over Berrios? I don't think so.

 

I would have started the season with 4 starters and 13 pitchers. Sort out the pen with the extra pitcher and determined who was ready to be effective immediately, using Mejia in long relief, NOT starting, keeping Berrios on Rochester rotation schedule consistent for when the first 5 day stretch came about for the Twins to move him up. 

 

Simple.

Not so simple. Berrios never was able to get settled in last year. He needed to get settled before being called up.

I would have made the exact same decision, calling up Mejia first. So would most teams. It was the right move.

The Twins made the fans' decision with Buxton to start the year -- putting him at the top of the order when it was clear as day he needs to get comfy at the bottom of a lineup before being moved up. I'm glad they didn't make the fans' decision with Berrios and did the sensible move. There is no going back in time to fix the Buxton decision, though, and he's likely to hit under .200 all year now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would have started the season with 4 starters and 13 pitchers. Sort out the pen with the extra pitcher and determined who was ready to be effective immediately, using Mejia in long relief, NOT starting, keeping Berrios on Rochester rotation schedule consistent for when the first 5 day stretch came about for the Twins to move him up. 

 

Simple.

Uh, that's not very simple.

 

Out of curiosity, how do you keep rotations aligned when rainouts come fast and furious in April and Rochester starts most of its games before the Twins on a nightly basis? And how do you adjust the Rochester rotation to accommodate this "up in the air" rotation? And what does that do to overall development of your players?

 

And why are you wasting Mejia, the second best MLB-ready pitching prospect, in the bullpen after his strong Spring Training? What about his development?

 

That's just about the least simple argument I've seen on this board.

[DaveW]

I love how this has evolved into a debate and discussion about seams on baseballs.

[Squirrel]

 

I love how this has evolved into a debate and discussion about seams on baseballs.

Well, yeah ... the minutiae is a bit off track, but the larger issue is not. Berrios did not do well in his call up last year ... whether that was due to confidence, normal adjustment, or the fact that MiLB uses a different ball than MLB ... is pertinent. All of these things or one or a combination of these things could have led the Twins to hold him back until now. It was widely reported last year that many of the young pitchers were having difficulties adjusting to ML ball last year and that the ball itself was a suspect in that. As for 'pushing in their chips' I want to see how Berrios does over the next month before I do that ... but I'm feeling more and more hopeful that we have a genuine, strong #2 starter here.

[DaveW]

Well, yeah ... the minutiae is a bit off track, but the larger issue is not. Berrios did not do well in his call up last year ... whether that was due to confidence, normal adjustment, or the fact that MiLB uses a different ball than MLB ... is pertinent. All of these things or one or a combination of these things could have led the Twins to hold him back until now. It was widely reported last year that many of the young pitchers were having difficulties adjusting to ML ball last year and that the ball itself was a suspect in that. As for 'pushing in their chips' I want to see how Berrios does over the next month before I do that ... but I'm feeling more and more hopeful that we have a genuine, strong #2 starter here.

I wasn't saying it was a good thing or bad thing, just kinda interesting.

 

Even without Berrios I think the Twins have shown they can "compete" for a playoff spot.

 

I'm not saying to go "all in" and give up the farm for Darvish. But aim to bring on a couple solid RP and maybe a legit mid rotation guy as well.

 

I think you could acquire all three without giving up more than 2 of your top 15 prospects (6-15 range)

[drjim]

Small point but there's been talk of trading for Darvish. Why would Texas do that? They're good.

[kab21]

 

Twins should trade Stewart, Santiago, and Grossman to the Rangers for Darvish

This probably won't work since the Twins don't have Duensing anymore.

[Linus]

I wasn't saying it was a good thing or bad thing, just kinda interesting.

 

Even without Berrios I think the Twins have shown they can "compete" for a playoff spot.

 

I'm not saying to go "all in" and give up the farm for Darvish. But aim to bring on a couple solid RP and maybe a legit mid rotation guy as well.

 

I think you could acquire all three without giving up more than 2 of your top 15 prospects (6-15 range)

Dave, would you want to bring up Burdi first just to see if the answer is here?

[DaveW]

Small point but there's been talk of trading for Darvish. Why would Texas do that? They're good.

Texas will likely fall out of the race, also Darvish will fetch a kings ransom.

[DaveW]

Dave, would you want to bring up Burdi first just to see if the answer is here?

The Twins aren't just one RP away IMO. They are at LEAST two.

 

Bring up Burdi, yes, but still work on upgrading some of the rest of the pen.

 

Can't have enough solid arms. Duffey, Kintzler and Rodgers are the only ones I sorta trust at this stage, plenty of room for upgrades.

[Linus]

The Twins aren't just one RP away IMO. They are at LEAST two.

 

Bring up Burdi, yes, but still work on upgrading some of the rest of the pen.

 

Can't have enough solid arms. Duffey, Kintzler and Rodgers are the only ones I sorta trust at this stage, plenty of room for upgrades.

This is probably a more realistic approach to improvement this year than trading for a starter.

[drjim]

Texas will likely fall out of the race, also Darvish will fetch a kings ransom.

Texas is much more likely to stay in the race. They're a pretty good squad.

[DaveW]

Texas is much more likely to stay in the race. They're a pretty good squad.

Agree to disagree.

[kab21]

 

This is probably a more realistic approach to improvement this year than trading for a starter.

I can give Hughes and the revolving door at #5 another month but I wouldn't mind trading a non-prospect for someone like Clayton Richard. Nothing special but right now Mejia and Hughes are the only hopes at those two spots and that doesn't even take an injury to the 1/2/3 into account.

The bullpen needs more arms but I want to see someone from Burdi, Melotakis, Bard, Hildenberger, Busenitz up with the team instead of Breslow or Belisle. Maybe they aren't ready but they are 26 (except for Burdi). Start them out in low leverage situations and see if they take off. 

 

The point is that the bullpen at least has potential improvement in the minors. The SP cupboard is bare for the near future aside from Mejia.

[DaveW]

This is probably a more realistic approach to improvement this year than trading for a starter.

I'd do both. It's not like a guy like Richard or the like is going to take a whole lot to get. Just send over a guy who is a 20-30 prospect and maybe a PTBNL.

[DaveW]

I can give Hughes and the revolving door at #5 another month but I wouldn't mind trading a non-prospect for someone like Clayton Richard. Nothing special but right now Mejia and Hughes are the only hopes at those two spots and that doesn't even take an injury to the 1/2/3 into account.

 

The bullpen needs more arms but I want to see someone from Burdi, Melotakis, Bard, Hildenberger, Busenitz up with the team instead of Breslow or Belisle. Maybe they aren't ready but they are 26 (except for Burdi). Start them out in low leverage situations and see if they take off.

 

The point is that the bullpen at least has potential improvement in the minors. The SP cupboard is bare for the near future aside from Mejia.

Yeah Hughes and Mejia could be ok. But the reality is likely one will either fail or get injured (ditto with santiago).

 

A guy like Richard would help stabilize things immensely. (And even opens up the possibility of Hughes to the pen eventually?)

[drew_7726]

 

If Berrios is this good then we need to see more of Tepesch because he is better than Berrios.

BRING TEPESCH BACK!

Since when?