Berrios staying in the minors?

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, not quite ready to get the pitchforks out for the new front office.  Berrios  has hardly been languishing in AAA, and he was downright terrible in the majors.  I'm guessing there's a few things he needs to work on that don't show up in the box score, and the idea that he'd learn it better in the majors doesn't hold much water.  I'd like to see him up, but if they are not confident he's ready, then let him work on them there.

[Major League Ready]

 

If 200 innings with these coaches in AAA haven't been enough....how much more time do we do it?

 

We keep the kid down indefinitely?

 

When does that justification run out and we either look at incompetent coaching or scrap the plan?

 

You speak as if every pitcher who lacks command finds it with good coaching.  This is basically same the thread found here in 2015 which entailed numerous posted explaining how Berrios would be our best SP and would be a great asset to the playoff push.  Obviously, that was proven to be not even remotely true.  Yet, here we are with basically the same discussion. 

 

It has been obvious for a long time the organization has many faults.  However, their assessment of Berrios has proven accurate.  Perhaps more importantly, Levine comes from an organization that is great at developing pitching.  He has the final decision on this topic and for people to think they are better equipped to make that decision is ludicrous.  Even if someone had an equivalent understanding of developing pitchers, none of us has nearly as much information/input.  Thinking they are the one's that don't understand is exceptionally naive.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Pitchers on the Twins who have come through the system are limited to Gibson, Tonkin, Rogers and Duffey, after years of high draft picks and a supposed draft and develop focus. Career WAR of 8.6. Seems like a strong argument that the minors coaching should be changed.

 

And the scouts.

[Mike Sixel]

 

More than one month.   But I agree, at certain point (I'm not arrogant enough to say I know when), you'll want to expose Berrios to ML hitters.   I'm hoping that his poor ML results last year are motivating him to work beyond the success sustained in AAA box scores.   

 

yes, because one thing Berrios lacks is proper motivation....

[Mike Sixel]

 

You speak as if every pitcher who lacks command finds it with good coaching.  This is basically same the thread found here in 2015 which entailed numerous posted explaining how Berrios would be our best SP and would be a great asset to the playoff push.  Obviously, that was proven to be not even remotely true.  Yet, here we are with basically the same discussion. 

 

It has been obvious for a long time the organization has many faults.  However, their assessment of Berrios has proven accurate.  Perhaps more importantly, Levine comes from an organization that is great at developing pitching.  He has the final decision on this topic and for people to think they are better equipped to make that decision is ludicrous.  Even if someone had an equivalent understanding of developing pitchers, none of us has nearly as much information/input.  Thinking they are the one's that don't understand is exceptionally naive.

 

Their assessment of Berrios was that he was ready last year. He wasn't. How were they correct?

 

Excellent appeal to authority though.

[howieramone2]

 

Man, everybody sure seems to think the entire Twins organization is either incompetent or evil for their handling of Berrios and other prospects. I understand the team hasn't earned any equity or benefit of the doubt but this isn't an example I can get behind.

 

Berrios is 22. He's still pretty darn young. An extra month or two to make sure his next call-up to the majors is successful and hopefully his last is a worthwhile and responsible way to handle him. They aren't keeping him down because they think he's trash or don't want to pay him. They aren't going to keep him down indefinitely and then lose him. They just want to make sure he doesn't hit a brick wall at 100 mph again like he did last year. Yes, I want to see Berrios up here soon too. But I trust that the front office is taking the long view and want to be convinced he's set up for success before his next promotion. Meanwhile, let the current rotation sort itself out so we can finally clean house on marginal pitchers.

 

An overmatched starting pitcher is far more damaging to a team than an overmatched 9th hitter that brings excellent defense. That is why Buxton gets to figure it out in the majors despite being the WORST hitter in baseball for long stretches, whereas no team is going to give that kind of leash to the worst starting pitcher in baseball.

 

Also, please spare the argument that Gibson pitching over Berrios means they think he's better and are too dumb to see the reality. I've been as done with Gibson as anybody but even I can understand their desire to exhaust every possibility with salvaging him while he's still cheap. He'll be gone soon enough at this rate.

Bingo!

[TheLeviathan]

 

I actually think it's kind of the opposite, Levi. Derek Flavey's claim to fame is that he's the guy who built the Cleveland pitching staff, possibly the best internally developed staff in the majors.

The guy isn't flailing in the dark here. But we kinda are.

 

I don't disagree that there is an element of ignorance here, but if we let that stop us you might as well shut this puppy down.

 

In general, when I see a prospect that dominant, I'd rather see them work on what they need to succeed at the next level on the next level.

 

I'm entirely consistent on that, it's exactly what I said about Buxton.  It feels more to me that people are picking and choosing their position on this relative to what the FO is doing and not on what they would argue in another situation.  I'm sure if Berrios comes up and struggles we'll hear "See!  Told you he wasn't ready!" or if he succeeds: "See!  Told you what they were doing was going to work!"

 

Me?  I just believe a kid that has demonstrated mastery on something ought to move to the next challenge.  Having him do the thing he mastered already, doesn't really help the new skill as much as, you know, working on the new skill in the context he needs it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't disagree that there is an element of ignorance here, but if we let that stop us you might as well shut this puppy down.

To clarify my recent points, I'm not condemning criticism. There are lots of things I don't like about the past 4-5 months.

 

But when "I don't like this move" turns to "the front office is incompetent", it becomes a problem. The gross arrogance it requires to hold that position is maddening.

[howieramone2]

 

Clearly Berrios isn't pitching to contact enough.

Probelm solved!

Pitching to contact wasn't the problem. I was at 2 of his 5 home starts, and it was like batting practice out there.

[TheLeviathan]

 

To clarify my recent points, I'm not condemning criticism. There are lots of things I don't like about the past 4-5 months.

 

But when "I don't like this move" turns to "the front office is incompetent", it becomes a problem. The gross arrogance it requires to hold that position is maddening.

 

I'm not saying they are incompetent, I'm saying it's hard to find any good reason for this move.

 

And it's frustrating to see maybe the biggest wild card for not only this year, but many years to come, spinning his wheels.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not saying they are incompetent, I'm saying it's hard to find any good reason for this move.

 

And it's frustrating to see maybe the biggest wild card for not only this year, but many years to come, spinning his wheels.

That wasn't directed at you. I know you haven't called anyone incompetent but I lost track how many times I've seen that word used over the past week.

[howieramone2]

 

So when does Berrios get called up? After the All Star break? September? Look if they are too afraid of what is results are going to be then trade Berrios. Because he's young enough to have value in a trade. After how the Twins have treated Berrios from 2015 to now it seems they don't really like him and don't have much hope he'll amount to anything. And yes he should have pitched some in the Bigs in 2015, it would have been good for him.

It would have better for him to crap the bed in 2015 while we were in the hunt?

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

35 starts already at AAA. Over 200 innings at AAA. 

 

Meaningless

 

Pedro Martinez had to pitch 167-2/3 innings in AAA before he made it to the majors.

 

And Berrios is not Pedro...

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And Berrios is not Pedro...

I can't speak for anyone else on the board but I sure hope Berrios is Pedro.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Our impatience with prospects is such a catch-22. If a guy struggles then nobody says a word. They want to see success before a promotion. Yet at the first demonstrated success there are loud calls for promotions and complaints that the player is overqualified and being held back. You can't have it both ways.

Can't the same be said for leaving him in AAA though? The reason for keeping him down is his lack of success against major league hitters last season, but he can't prove that he has overcome those issues until he faces major league competition again; i.e. he is called up. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

yes, because one thing Berrios lacks is proper motivation....

This takes my comment out of context; I was responding to the assertion that too much success can affect development.  Thus a player, here Berrios, would need to be motivated to be successful beyond what shows up in the AAA boxscore.  It was not slight against Berrios, as you seem to suggest.  

[FlauerPauer]

I think my frustration derives from the fact that Tepesch has yet to pitch since being called up.  Sure, he is throwing bullpens, but that's not to hitters with full adrenaline pumping.  It's curious that he wouldn't even get in some mop up duty in some of the losses since he's arrived to keep him in tune.  I don't expect much from him on Saturday.  I hope he does great and pitches deep into the game, but I am expecting that he doesn't last three innings and is shelled, mostly due to the layoff in between pitching experiences.  Honestly have no idea what Tepesch brings to the table.  My guess, since the Twins signed him, is a low 90s (90-92) mph fastball, a curveball, and a changeup.  Pitch to contact guy.  May strike a guy out here and there.

 

Would rather take chances with Berrios.  Oh well. Let's go Twins!

[Mike Sixel]

 

This takes my comment out of context; I was responding to the assertion that too much success can affect development.  Thus a player, here Berrios, would need to be motivated to be successful beyond what shows up in the AAA boxscore.  It was not slight against Berrios, as you seem to suggest.  

 

Then I misunderstood it, because that's how I read it. If only we could assume positive intent, and not some kind of ulterior motive from our fellow posters....

[d-mac]

 

That the problem is the same--fastball command--makes sense.  My point is that the solution/plan likely differs from that of the old regime. 

 

Well it's only been 5 starts this year, but Berrios has already reduced his solid BB% by over 20% from last year's stint in AAA. Or, if you prefer, his K/BB has from from 3.47 last year to 4.38 this year. I'm not sure what more he needs to show.

 

At some point a player can only learn so much from being down in the minors. In this case these AAA hitters are clearly not challenging Berrios. The only way he is going to learn to get Major League hitters out at this point is by being challenged by them. Furthermore, I'd rather see him up here learning from Neil Allen than from the pitching coaches in the minors -the same ones that couldn't prepare any pitchers for the majors during the second TR stint. 

 

And then there is the whole issue of injury potential. There are only so many bullets in a pitcher's arm before it requires surgery. I'd rather have Berrios using his "bullets" up trying to establish himself at the Majors rather than using them up dominating overmatched AAA hitters.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Then I misunderstood it, because that's how I read it. If only we could assume positive intent, and not some kind of ulterior motive from our fellow posters....

No worries. I wanted to clarify, as others may have read it the same you did.  As for the assumption of positive intent...well, I wouldn't do that, it is the internet.

[FormerMinnasotan]

It would have better for him to crap the bed in 2015 while we were in the hunt?

Well Duffey's first start with the Twins didn't give any confidence he'd be any good. So the Twins were smart to roll the dice on Duffey over Berrios after he pitched poorly in his debut? There was nothing that showed Duffey could pitch better than Berrios in 2015.

[PseudoSABR]

 

The only way he is going to learn to get Major League hitters out at this point is by being challenged by them. 

Sorry to crop your post (thanks for actually bringing stats to the discussion), but I don't think there's a lot of basis for this assertion.   I think the whole point coming from Molitor is that there are things Berrios can do to at AAA to learn to get ML hitters out.   

 

Whatever Berrios needs to show, probably can't be found in the boxscore.  

[KirbyDome89]

 

 

  I'm sure if Berrios comes up and struggles we'll hear "See!  Told you he wasn't ready!" or if he succeeds: "See!  Told you what they were doing was going to work!"

THIS

 

It's essentially a no lose situation to leave him down. If he's ready now (which many of us believe) and they leave him down another month or two and he pitches well when he comes up that extended stay in AAA will be cited as the reason for the turnaround. There is absolutely no way to prove whether it did or didn't help but it certainly will be given credit.  

[Thrylos]

 

I can't speak for anyone else on the board but I sure hope Berrios is Pedro.

 

First ballot Hall of Famer?  Dream on

[d-mac]

 

Blackburn? Pelfrey? Nolasco? 

 

No one's judging Berrios by the results of his more-than-cup-of-coffee ML debut last year; pretending they don't exist is the problem.  Again, what do you actually know about what has changed in regard to Berrios' likelihood of ML success?  Nothing.  You're just spit balling.  

 

That you bring up Blackburn and Pelfrey shows your unwillingness to separate the new regime from the old.  Terry Ryan's ghost must haunt you.

 

Is it a different regime? I'm rhetorically ask for a friend. And by friend I mean myself. 

 

Sure, Falvine is (are?) here, but as far as I'm aware, there haven't been really any significant personnel changes. If the body if the organization is the same how can one delineate between regimes? Sure Falvine can implement new strategies, but how deep or hands on will they go or be able to have gotten with the limited time that's passed so far. 

 

They can make immediate changes to rosters and coaching staffs (which for the most part have been static since they've assumed command), but as far as implementing new organizational policies and strategies those take time and require people throughout the organization with both the expertise and willingness to implement them. And as far as I'm aware the minor league coordinators, coaches, and instructors are still the same long term TR guys. Maybe they have the expertise and willingness to implement the new policies and strategies that Falvine brought with them from outside the organization, but old traditional baseball men tend to be more stubborn than a horde of drunken Scotsmen (I can say that because I am of Scottish heritage). 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

First ballot Hall of Famer?  Dream on

Hey, I never said it was realistic.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Is it a different regime? I'm rhetorically ask for a friend. And by friend I mean myself. 

 

Sure, Falvine is (are?) here, but as far as I'm aware, there haven't been really any significant personnel changes. If the body if the organization is the same how can one delineate between regimes? Sure Falvine can implement new strategies, but how deep or hands on will they go or be able to have gotten with the limited time that's passed so far. 

 

They can make immediate changes to rosters and coaching staffs (which for the most part have been static since they've assumed command), but as far as implementing new organizational policies and strategies those take time and require people throughout the organization with both the expertise and willingness to implement them. And as far as I'm aware the minor league coordinators, coaches, and instructors are still the same long term TR guys. Maybe they have the expertise and willingness to implement the new policies and strategies that Falvine brought with them from outside the organization, but old traditional baseball men tend to be more stubborn than a horde of drunken Scotsmen (I can say that because I am of Scottish heritage). 

It's a new regime.  There may be problems with executing directives from Falvey/Levine by holdovers, but rest assured those directives, esp. in regard to pitching, have changed since TR.  IIRC, Falvey/Levine talked about having a specific plan for every player in the organization. 

 

I just don't understand the cynicism regarding whether the new regime is really new.  The expectation that they should have cleaned house was never realistic.   Everyone within the organization likely realizes their jobs are on the line, if they--as you say--are stubbornly holding onto the old philosophy.   (Maybe their communicating Terry Ryan even now through a back channel; what has Michael Flynn been up to since his dismissal as NSA?)

[Guest]

Regarding Berrios, I wonder whether Roy Halladay's career gives any guidance. 17th overall draft choice at 18. Bounced up and down for several years, had command problems, finally figured it out midway through his age 24 season and was worth 4 WAR over 105 innings, after pitching in A+, AA and AAA that year.

 

All Star the following year (25) and Cy Young the year after that (26).

[drjim]

 

It's a new regime.  There may be problems with executing directives from Falvey/Levine by holdovers, but rest assured those directives, esp. in regard to pitching, have changed since TR.  IIRC, Falvey/Levine talked about having a specific plan for every player in the organization. 

 

I just don't understand the cynicism regarding whether the new regime is really new.  The expectation that they should have cleaned house was never realistic.   Everyone within the organization likely realizes their jobs are on the line, if they--as you say--are stubbornly holding onto the old philosophy.   (Maybe their communicating Terry Ryan even now through a back channel; what has Michael Flynn been up to since his dismissal as NSA?)

 

Plus they have already shifted some key roles, let some people go, hired some other scouts/coaches and hired a boatload of lower level people.

 

This is not the same regime by any stretch.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Regarding Berrios, I wonder whether Roy Halladay's career gives any guidance. 17th overall draft choice at 18. Bounced up and down for several years, had command problems, finally figured it out midway through his age 24 season and was worth 4 WAR over 105 innings, after pitching in A+, AA and AAA that year.

 

All Star the following year (25) and Cy Young the year after that (26).

As I recall too, in 2000 Halladay had a 10+ ERA in as many starts as I believe as Berrios had last year. It's too early to think his terrible MLB debut will cloud his future.