Cuban Luis Robert is a FA

[Vanimal46]

The White Sox sign Robert for more than $25 MM. They'll also have to pay around $20 MM in overage taxes for going over their bonus pool allotment. 

 

Not good. They're rebuilding very quickly with high end talent. 

[DaveW]

The white Sox are doing what the Twins should have down 2-3-4-5 years ago.

[howieramone2]

 

The white Sox are doing what the Twins should have down 2-3-4-5 years ago.

And what exactly is that?

[TheLeviathan]

 

And what exactly is that?

 

Use money to add long term assets instead of placeholders.

[gunnarthor]

 

Use money to add long term assets instead of placeholders.

Look, the Twins used their entire international payroll. It's a probably a bridge too far to expect the Pohlads to spend millions of dollars above the pool to the point that they'd get taxed. And the Twins aren't going to compete for the Yu Darvish's of the world either. Complaining about use of $ is sorta fun but with this ownership group, it's probably a waste of time.  It doesn't matter if the GM is Lavine, Ryan or Smith, we aren't going to bust our budgets.

[Blake]

Quite a few years ago, the Twins spent a pretty good sum of money to sign an infielder that was, by a pretty solid consensus, going to be an incredible infielder, major league ready, etc. I recall reading one report that said Nishioka wouldn't amount to much at the MLB level.

 

The consensus was wrong when it came to Nishioka. 

 

My point being that Robert Luis may be everything the scouts say he is and then some. However, the amount of risk and the kind of money involved is substantial. Luis could very well turn out to be an extremely expensive bust that will handcuff the Sox for a couple of years.

 

On paper, looks great. Still an enormous amount of risk. 

 

It's great to say would have, could have, etc. This kind of signing for that kind of money always makes me skeptical. 

 

If someone has a better take on the Nishioka deal, please let me know. I admit I'm going by my rapidly aging memory.

[Vanimal46]

 

Look, the Twins used their entire international payroll. It's a probably a bridge too far to expect the Pohlads to spend millions of dollars above the pool to the point that they'd get taxed. And the Twins aren't going to compete for the Yu Darvish's of the world either. Complaining about use of $ is sorta fun but with this ownership group, it's probably a waste of time.  It doesn't matter if the GM is Lavine, Ryan or Smith, we aren't going to bust our budgets.

 

Yeah, unfortunately you're right. They may open up the checkbook for a Darvish-type, but I can't ever see them paying $40+MM including the tax to get an unproven prospect, no matter how good he may be.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Look, the Twins used their entire international payroll. It's a probably a bridge too far to expect the Pohlads to spend millions of dollars above the pool to the point that they'd get taxed. And the Twins aren't going to compete for the Yu Darvish's of the world either. Complaining about use of $ is sorta fun but with this ownership group, it's probably a waste of time.  It doesn't matter if the GM is Lavine, Ryan or Smith, we aren't going to bust our budgets.

 

Did they spend money on any Cubans?  Ever?

 

No?  Then I fail to see how you really have any counter-argument here to the point that my post was in reply to.

 

The Twins don't do this.  That's my point.  You don't seem to disagree yet posted this reply anyway.

[TheLeviathan]

And specifically, I don't understand why we treated the Cuban FA market with such avoidance.  We dabbled in other avenues with Nishioka and Park but we never seemed to take that market seriously.  That isn't a FO specific criticism, it's just a stone cold fact that we don't do this for whatever reasoning there is.

[Thrylos]

 

Did they spend money on any Cubans?  Ever?

 

No?  Then I fail to see how you really have any counter-argument here to the point that my post was in reply to.

 

The Twins don't do this.  That's my point.  You don't seem to disagree yet posted this rant anyway.

 

The TR administrations were spendthrift.  They would rather throw away $50 million among 6 mediocre players than sign one or two difference makers.

 

Case in point:  Ryan's moves when he got re-hired after the 99 loss 2011 season:

 

3y/ $6.2M  Jared Burton
2y/ $6M Jamey Carroll
3y/ 10M Ryan Doumit
1y/ $4.75M Matt Capps
3y/ $21M Josh Willingham
1y/ $3M Jason Marquis

 

6 players $51 million in contracts, instead of 2 difference makers.  They did spent

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Did they spend money on any Cubans?  Ever?

 

No?  Then I fail to see how you really have any counter-argument here to the point that my post was in reply to.

 

The Twins don't do this.  That's my point.  You don't seem to disagree yet posted this rant anyway.

The only international signings they did - where the international pool wasn't a factor - were the Nishoki and Park signings (and one Japanese pitcher that the A's outbid us on). Those were both very modest investments. They've never been on the Cuban free agents, regardless of whether or nor a tax hit would factor in. I just don't see the point of bringing this up after every signing. We're not going to outbid other teams. We've never done it. The only exception was Sano when a bunch of stuff broke right for us and it was a relatively small amount.

[ashbury]

 

The TR administrations were spendthrift.  They would rather throw away $50 million among 6 mediocre players than sign one or two difference makers.

 

Case in point:  Ryan's moves when he got re-hired after the 99 loss 2011 season:

 

3y/ $6.2M  Jared Burton
2y/ $6M Jamey Carroll
3y/ 10M Ryan Doumit
1y/ $4.75M Matt Capps
3y/ $21M Josh Willingham
1y/ $3M Jason Marquis

 

6 players $51 million in contracts, instead of 2 difference makers.  They did spent

A quibble, mainly, because I agree with your principle: this would be enough for 1 difference maker, more or less. Money spent on 2 and 3 year contracts make this $51M sum something like $10+M a year. Nolasco territory. A 3 year contract for $51M might have gotten us someONE who would move the needle (although needle-movers generally demand and get more security than 3 years).

 

Except of course that he'd need TJ surgery in May of his first year.

[Thrylos]

 

A quibble, mainly, because I agree with your principle: this would be enough for 1 difference maker, more or less. Money spent on 2 and 3 year contracts make this $51M sum something like $10+M a year. Nolasco territory. A 3 year contract for $51M might have gotten us someONE who would move the needle (although needle-movers generally demand and get more security than 3 years).

 

Except of course that he'd need TJ surgery in May of his first year.

 

I meant future difference makers who would be ready in 2-3 years. 

eg.  Cespedes' contract with the A's was 4/ $36M and he was signed when Ryan was assembling that mess. same with Dodgers giving 6/$36 to sign Ryu   So instead of 1-3y/$51, you spend 4-6 y/$75 for those two. 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

The only international signings they did - where the international pool wasn't a factor - were the Nishoki and Park signings (and one Japanese pitcher that the A's outbid us on). Those were both very modest investments. They've never been on the Cuban free agents, regardless of whether or nor a tax hit would factor in. I just don't see the point of bringing this up after every signing. We're not going to outbid other teams. We've never done it. The only exception was Sano when a bunch of stuff broke right for us and it was a relatively small amount.

 

That's fine, but trace the conversation then:

 

Dave: Says we should do this

Twins FO: Do what?

Me: Do this - get in on one of these signings.

 

I made no judgment about whether we would, I said we should.  I know full well we won't, but that wasn't the point.  It wasn't a "can we?" question.  It was "should we" and we absolutely should have been doing it.

[howieramone2]

 

The TR administrations were spendthrift.  They would rather throw away $50 million among 6 mediocre players than sign one or two difference makers.

 

Case in point:  Ryan's moves when he got re-hired after the 99 loss 2011 season:

 

3y/ $6.2M  Jared Burton
2y/ $6M Jamey Carroll
3y/ 10M Ryan Doumit
1y/ $4.75M Matt Capps
3y/ $21M Josh Willingham
1y/ $3M Jason Marquis

 

6 players $51 million in contracts, instead of 2 difference makers.  They did spent

Who were the 2 difference makers? One of the laws of baseball, is when a mid-market team does a complete rebuild, they are going to have losing seasons. The Pirates had 20, the Royals didn't see the play-offs for almost that long. 

[twinsnorth49]

Who were the 2 difference makers? One of the laws of baseball, is when a mid-market team does a complete rebuild, they are going to have losing seasons. The Pirates had 20, the Royals didn't see the play-offs for almost that long.

I can't find this law, is it written somewhere?

[Thrylos]

 

Who were the 2 difference makers? One of the laws of baseball, is when a mid-market team does a complete rebuild, they are going to have losing seasons. The Pirates had 20, the Royals didn't see the play-offs for almost that long. 

 

Comparing the Twins' market with that of the Pirates and the Royals makes zero sense.

Data:

 

Twin Cities:  Population 3,615,902.  Median Household income: $54,304
Kansas City, MO/KS: 1,776,062 & $46,193
Pittsburgh:  2,358,695 & 20,935

 

So: Population x MHI / 2 =  (approximate market size)

Twin Cities: $98,178 M
KC: $41,021 M
Pittsburgh: $24,690 M

 

So about 2.5 x the market size of KC and 4 x the market size of Pittsburgh.

 

and if you look at the other markets in the AL Central, spare Chicago, there are smaller than the Twins'

Cleveland: 2,945,831, $42,215 ($62,179M, ~2/3 of Twins')
Detroit: 5,270,909, $22,319 ($58,821M ~2/3 of Twins')

And they have been pretty relevant, pretty fast and for longer periods than the Twins.

 

Enough excuses about "small" and "mid" market, because the Twins' is right on top of the division.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

 

I made no judgment about whether we would, I said we should.  I know full well we won't, but that wasn't the point.  It wasn't a "can we?" question.  It was "should we" and we absolutely should have been doing it.

Well, I mean, sure. Yvonne Strahovski 'should' marry me - my wife would totally be ok with it. But it doesn't seem realistic. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well, I mean, sure. Yvonne Strahovski 'should' marry me - my wife would totally be ok with it. But it doesn't seem realistic. 

 

Well, let's be honest, the difference here is that the Twins absolutely could do it but for whatever reason have chosen not to.

 

I doubt you have willfully (and repeatedly) denied Ms. Strahovski's advances.

[DaveW]

 

And what exactly is that?

Actually go into a full fledged rebuild. Stop trying to pretend to compete, trade aging assets, acquire young assets, take some actual real risks in the international market (fyi: the Twins best moves in that space all came from Bill Smith)

If the Twins would have actually done a legit rebuild 3-4-5 seasons ago, we could be looking at a top team in Baseball currently that is built around the current young core: Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Berrios etc

[biggentleben]

When I interviewed Hahn this spring, he mentioned that they were looking to do a "quality over quantity" rebuild. He cited the rebuild that the Padres have undertaken and mentioned that the path they are taking will take years to achieve, though building  up their system in that manner will be fruitful for a long run. They were looking for 2-3 elite pieces back in a trade this winter than 5-7 very good pieces. He acknowledged that there are many who would say their farm system could have used the depth, but he was very adamant about pursuing top level guys being the strategy they will continue in future moves, both in the acquisition of amateur talent and in making trade acquisitions.

 

Robert may blow their July 2017 out of the water, but they have a guy in hand now that many have considered one of the best prospects in baseball the moment he puts on his first uniform. That to go with the #1 prospect in all of baseball, three pitching prospects who rank in the top 25-30 prospects in the entire game, and a few other big pieces from those trades as well, all acquired since 2016's season closed.

[old nurse]

 

Comparing the Twins' market with that of the Pirates and the Royals makes zero sense.

Data:

 

Twin Cities:  Population 3,615,902.  Median Household income: $54,304
Kansas City, MO/KS: 1,776,062 & $46,193
Pittsburgh:  2,358,695 & 20,935

 

So: Population x MHI / 2 =  (approximate market size)

Twin Cities: $98,178 M
KC: $41,021 M
Pittsburgh: $24,690 M

 

So about 2.5 x the market size of KC and 4 x the market size of Pittsburgh.

 

and if you look at the other markets in the AL Central, spare Chicago, there are smaller than the Twins'

Cleveland: 2,945,831, $42,215 ($62,179M, ~2/3 of Twins')
Detroit: 5,270,909, $22,319 ($58,821M ~2/3 of Twins')

And they have been pretty relevant, pretty fast and for longer periods than the Twins.

 

Enough excuses about "small" and "mid" market, because the Twins' is right on top of the division.

Revenue from television determines small market teams.  By that metric the Twins are near the bottom and will likely always will be. Money talks. It is not an excuse but the reality.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Yeah, unfortunately you're right. They may open up the checkbook for a Darvish-type, but I can't ever see them paying $40+MM including the tax to get an unproven prospect, no matter how good he may be.

Will the son of a banker, and a banker himself, spend big money on baseball players?  

 

Well, did anyone expect Jim Pohlad to hire executive search firm Korn Ferry to run the search for new management with a modern approach to the game?  I don't believe we've seen the full effect of the new Falvey/Levine management yet...

[howieramone2]

 

When I interviewed Hahn this spring, he mentioned that they were looking to do a "quality over quantity" rebuild. He cited the rebuild that the Padres have undertaken and mentioned that the path they are taking will take years to achieve, though building  up their system in that manner will be fruitful for a long run. They were looking for 2-3 elite pieces back in a trade this winter than 5-7 very good pieces. He acknowledged that there are many who would say their farm system could have used the depth, but he was very adamant about pursuing top level guys being the strategy they will continue in future moves, both in the acquisition of amateur talent and in making trade acquisitions.

 

Robert may blow their July 2017 out of the water, but they have a guy in hand now that many have considered one of the best prospects in baseball the moment he puts on his first uniform. That to go with the #1 prospect in all of baseball, three pitching prospects who rank in the top 25-30 prospects in the entire game, and a few other big pieces from those trades as well, all acquired since 2016's season closed.

You understand he is in year 5 right? Our favorite team is in year 6. I put my money on the mid-market team.

[TheLeviathan]

 

You understand he is in year 5 right? Our favorite team is in year 6. I put my money on the mid-market team.

 

I literally cannot make a lick of sense out of this.  

[twinsnorth49]

 

Of course.

Source?

[kab21]

The Twins chose to ignore that a majority of the teams completely ignored the pitiful penalties in the CBA and hoovered up more prospects than them. They didn't do badly in int'l FA but their haul (2010-now) compared to most teams is probably in the bottom half or worse despite having one of the highest bonus pools during that time frame.

[gunnarthor]

 

The Twins chose to ignore that a majority of the teams completely ignored the pitiful penalties in the CBA and hoovered up more prospects than them. They didn't do badly in int'l FA but their haul (2010-now) compared to most teams is probably in the bottom half or worse despite having one of the highest bonus pools during that time frame.

Two points, first, didn't the pool thing change in 2012, not 2010? If so, you're basically making an arbitrary starting point for the year after the Twins signed Sano. That seems a bit unfair, especially if you are alluding to the Twins having a larger than most signing pool.

 

Second, do we actually have a comparison of hauls over any time period? Be it 2010 - forward or 2012 - forward?  Seems to me that most of the players signed in 2012 or 2013 might only be at high A right now. For example, Eloy Jimenez, the #1 guy from 2013 and a top 20 prospect overall is still only in A+. 

[kab21]

 

Two points, first, didn't the pool thing change in 2012, not 2010? If so, you're basically making an arbitrary starting point for the year after the Twins signed Sano. That seems a bit unfair, especially if you are alluding to the Twins having a larger than most signing pool.

 

Second, do we actually have a comparison of hauls over any time period? Be it 2010 - forward or 2012 - forward?  Seems to me that most of the players signed in 2012 or 2013 might only be at high A right now. For example, Eloy Jimenez, the #1 guy from 2013 and a top 20 prospect overall is still only in A+. 

Pick whatever years you want. 2012 would be a better choice (I didn't feel like looking up the date of the new CBA) because of the CBA and this is when the Twins hit bottom (following the 2011 season).

 

But the point is that the Twins didn't make any huge splashes in int'l FA following the Sano, Kepler and Polanco year. And those represent about half of the best young players currently on the team. That one aggressive signing period has changed the entire outlook of the Twins rebuild but what if they had been more aggressive in other years and the Twins had a few more top prospects knocking on the door.

And this isn't to state that the Twins have nothing to show for int'l signings since then. Diaz, Javier, Romero (mid sized bonus), Ynoa (<1M bonus), Thorpe (mid size bonus), Jorge (mid size bonus) are a nice haul but I don't think the overall strength of their signings during any period since their one big splash is that strong when compared to teams that were more aggressive especially when you factor in the 'supposed' advantage that they should have had (larger bonus pools) by playing by the rules. It looks even worse when most of their best signings were due to scouting and not money. 

Eloy Jimenez seems rather irrelevant to this discussion. Or perhaps extremely relevant. They didn't sign anyone besides Javier that projects to that type of upside for almost a decade (since Sano's signing period). Teams have certainly done worse but it was extremely obvious that teams would benefit by ignoring the cap and signing as many as possible. And money was certainly available. The MLB payroll dropped into the 80M range for two seasons. Spending an extra 10-15M (or more) in one offseason was possible considering the return on investment of prospects.

[bird]

 

And specifically, I don't understand why we treated the Cuban FA market with such avoidance.  We dabbled in other avenues with Nishioka and Park but we never seemed to take that market seriously.  That isn't a FO specific criticism, it's just a stone cold fact that we don't do this for whatever reasoning there is.

 

 

I have a theory about this that I think is borne out by both Terry Ryan's words, his actions, and what we think we know about his nature. I believe the organization, even before Ryan was influential, had determined that as a small market team (which at one time it was), it wasn't in a position to compete in auction-style bids. This is why they were not a factor in Japan. They instead established a beachhead in Australia and dabbled in some other less-travelled areas. I think Ryan extended that mindset to the Cuban market when it opened up, again because of his personal distaste for auction bids, and was able to convince his bosses that the organization could find talent elsewhere and avoid the risks and the costs involved with those high-profile Cuban players. It will be interesting to see if that changes.