When do we begin to believe Robbie Grossman is a good hitter?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Only 27 PAs so SSSS abounds but this guy looks like the exact same hitter the Twins picked up last season. Decent average, great discipline, decent power.

 

Robbie Grossman, pre Twins:

764 PA, .240 .327 .341 .668

 

Robbie Grossman, Twins:

416 PAs, .280 .389 .448 .837

 

I'm still skeptical of the guy: going into the season, I was hoping for a .750 OPS with good numbers against LHP, which is useful on a team full of LHB that can't hit LHP.

 

But it's possible he's more than that. Much more than that.

[nytwinsfan]

He's definitely a good hitter. No question. The problem is that his defense basically limits him to DH. He's become a good enough hitter that he has some value even there, but with Park and Vargas waiting in the wings, I'm not sure there is really a roster spot long-term.

[DaveW]

He's a solid bench bet for a contending team. If the Twins stick in it, maybe he should

platoon with Rosario.

 

If they fall out of it they can trade him.

 

I still think you need someone with legit power at DH, especially when you are getting zero power out of 1B, and not a whole lot out of the OF combined.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He's definitely a good hitter. No question. The problem is that his defense basically limits him to DH. He's become a good enough hitter that he has some value even there, but with Park and Vargas waiting in the wings, I'm not sure there is really a roster spot long-term.

As it stands now, the ball is squarely in Vargas' and Park's court. Grossman will not be displaced by either of those players unless he falls off a cliff. Guys with an .830 OPS don't get bumped for question marks.

 

As for his defense, I remain unconvinced he's as bad as we saw in 2016. His defensive numbers with the Astros were rather pedestrian. It's possible he just had a really, really, really bad season that isn't indicative of his true talent.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I still think you need someone with legit power at DH, especially when you are getting zero power out of 1B, and not a whole lot out of the OF combined.

I don't know if we can write off Grossman's power, which seems to be underrated around here.

 

If you extrapolate his play with the Twins to a 600 PA season, he hits 17 home runs and 30 doubles.

 

Given his OBP, that's perfectly acceptable power from the DH spot.

[nytwinsfan]

 

As it stands now, the ball is squarely in Vargas' and Park's court. Grossman will not be displaced by either of those players unless he falls off a cliff. Guys with an .830 OPS don't get bumped for question marks.

 

As for his defense, I remain unconvinced he's as bad as we saw in 2016. His defensive numbers with the Astros were rather pedestrian. It's possible he just had a really, really, really bad season that isn't indicative of his true talent.

I agree if he keeps hitting like he is now then he should get plenty of playing time at DH. I'm also ok giving him a few more chances in the corner outfield, but I'd keep a short leash on him there. 

[DocBauer]

I also don't think his overall defense was/is as bad as he showed last season. But his bat is starting to look legitimate, sans great power, but with decent power. The plate discipline is outstanding. I really like him on this team as a role player who plays a lot. And I may be proven wrong, but I still think, overall, the team is better with a productive Vargas or Park to deepen the lineup, bench and options. (Goodrum, Granite or someone to replace DanSan adds to this). But I think Grossman is maturing in to a solid overall hitter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree if he keeps hitting like he is now then he should get plenty of playing time at DH. I'm also ok giving him a few more chances in the corner outfield, but I'd keep a short leash on him there. 

Oh, definitely a short leash defensively... I just don't see why he was as bad as he was last season. He missed a ton of "1 star" opportunities last season, which surely butchered his defensive metrics.

 

But he didn't seem to do that in previous seasons. Grossman isn't Josh Willingham. He appears to be athletic enough to not embarrass himself in a corner outfield spot.

 

I'd put him out there on occasion and see what happens. Not often, just as a spot start for Rosario or Kepler against LHP on occasion.

 

There *should* be enough space on this roster to support both Grossman and Park/Vargas.

[DaveW]

IMO it's still way to much SSS this year. His ISO will normalize.

 

Last year I still maintain his numbers were highly luck driven by a .364 BaBip.

 

We will see if he can keep it up.

.750 ops? Maybe

.800 ops? I don't see it.

[nicksaviking]

 

As for his defense, I remain unconvinced he's as bad as we saw in 2016. His defensive numbers with the Astros were rather pedestrian. It's possible he just had a really, really, really bad season that isn't indicative of his true talent.

 

Yeah last year was strange with his defensive issues. I mean the guy was the starting CF for Cleveland's AAA team this time last year. That was the only position he played for them! That obviously doesn't mean he was a great defender but it sure indicates something bizarre happened; aside from injury, who's ever seen a guy who went from CF capable to DH only in less than a month. At the age of 26 no less.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

IMO it's still way to much SSS this year. His ISO will normalize.

Last year I still maintain his numbers were highly luck driven by a .364 BaBip.

We will see if he can keep it up.
.750 ops? Maybe
.800 ops? I don't see it.

Yeah, that's the real question. Grossman appears to be a high BABIP guy. He posted a .353 BABIP in 2013 and a .311 BABIP in 2014.

 

But .364 is bordering on unsustainable. It's not the absurd BABIP of .400 that Danny Santana and Chris Colabello posted in the past but it's on the fringe of sustainability, for sure.

 

Grossman puts the ball on the ground and hits line drives quite a bit, posting roughly a 25% LD rate and a 40% GB rate with the Twins. That's going to lead to a pretty high BABIP.

 

Interestingly enough, those numbers closely mirror Joey Votto's career numbers, who has (unsurprisingly) a very high career BABIP of .350.

[bighat]

I'm torn on this one.  One one hand, I really really want Park or Vargas to be the full-time DH.   I'd love to see the Twins DH be their 4 or 5 hitter, and be someone that hits for power and RBI.  That said, Edwin Encarnacions don't grow on trees, and right now neither Park or Vargas has shown they can be that guy.  Park is a question mark right now and his hammy injury keeps the picture cloudy. 

 

Grossman has been doing what's asked of him.  But the Twins really aren't asking for much, and it seems the fans aren't either.  Have we become so easy to please that a DH who hits 15 HR and bats .265 is considered to be a great fit for that role?   Grossman would be an ideal pinch hitter in the NL.   I like that he's getting on base, but don't let your low expecations allow you to believe he's this team's answer at DH.

[DaveW]

 

Yeah, that's the real question. Grossman appears to be a high BABIP guy. He posted a .353 BABIP in 2013 and a .311 BABIP in 2014.

 

But .364 is bordering on unsustainable. It's not the absurd BABIP of .400 that Danny Santana and Chris Colabello posted in the past but it's on the fringe of sustainability, for sure.

 

Grossman puts the ball on the ground and hits line drives quite a bit, posting roughly a 25% LD rate and a 40% GB rate with the Twins. That's going to lead to a pretty high BABIP.

 

Interestingly enough, those numbers closely mirror Joey Votto's career numbers, who has (unsurprisingly) a very high career BABIP of .350.

Votto also hits 30 HR a year, that helps out the old BABIP

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Grossman has been doing what's asked of him.  But the Twins really aren't asking for much, and it seems the fans aren't either.  Have we become so easy to please that a DH who hits 15 HR and bats .265 is considered to be a great fit for that role?   Grossman would be an ideal pinch hitter in the NL.   I like that he's getting on base, but don't let your low expecations allow you to believe he's this team's answer at DH.

Again, how the Twins fanbase has underrated Grossman's performance floors me.

 

The guy has an .830 OPS in 416 PAs with the Twins. What more do we want from a DH? Lots of dingers with a .780 OPS?

 

I'll take a few less dingers and the .830 OPS all day long because that player helps the team win more games.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Votto also hits 30 HR a year, that helps out the old BABIP

Home runs don't count in BABIP. Sure, homers remove a few balls from play entirely so therefore "fewer opportunities = easier to maintain a high number" but if we're going by that standard, strikeouts also help BABIP and are far more frequent than homers.

[Blake]

Brock, and I admit I'm spitballing, here, but, haven't the Twins really suffered from lack of consistency from the DH over the last few years? I think this year, Grossman is showing some consistency at the DH spot, something I think the Twins desperately need. That Grossman can also play a corner outfield is a bonus, generally because the DH position is usually part-time First Base, which I think the Twins have enough of.

 

If and when the Twins go to a 12 man pitching staff, perhaps Vargas comes up to serve as a platoon with Mauer and add a bat to the bench.

 

Of course, if I was any good at prognostication, I'd have an easy life and make my money gambling on sports.

[gunnarthor]

I don't doubt his ability to hit lefties at all anymore and, worst case, he should be in the lineup against lefties all year.  I'm really impressed with his plate discipline against all pitchers and his ability to take a walk is going to help him regardless of who is pitching to him.  So it's certainly been fun to see him hit against righties this season.

 

He's not a perfect hitter and he has warts but outside of Sano the Twins probably don't have a perfect hitter.  He was available to the Twins for a reason.  But he can certainly be a solid player for the next few years.  On-base is really, really important and he does that and, as noted, he has enough power to punish opposing teams for mistakes.

[DaveW]

 

Again, how the Twins fanbase has underrated Grossman's performance floors me.

 

The guy has an .830 OPS in 416 PAs with the Twins. What more do we want from a DH? Lots of dingers with a .780 OPS?

 

I'll take a few less dingers and the .830 OPS all day long because that player helps the team win more games.

I just don't see him having a .830 OPS this year.

Also this is easy to say after a 11-5 victory where he went 3 for 4, but again I still think he sticks somewhere in the .730-.770 OPS range, which is fine, but you need more than that from the DH spot if you are going to contend (and have black holes(esp power wise) offensively at 1B, CF, LF somewhat)

[Mike Sixel]

So, based on this, we should think Buxton Sucks, I assume? Same sample size, pretty much....

 

Grossman can get on base. I like that in a batter. I have no idea how he looks so lost in the OF, but he does. I don't see any reason Park or Vargas should be here, if Grossman hits like this.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I just don't see him having a .830 OPS this year.

I don't see that either but I didn't see him posting an .830 OPS last season, either.

 

I'm going to reserve judgment on Grossman until he stops hitting at that clip.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So, based on this, we should think Buxton Sucks, I assume? Same sample size, pretty much....

Yes, but there is a difference between a player struggling through his first 400 PAs at ages 22-23 versus a player succeeding through his 650-1100 PAs at ages 26-27.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes, but there is a difference between a player struggling through his first 400 PAs at ages 22-23 versus a player succeeding through his 650-1100 PAs at ages 26-27.

 

It was pure snark, Brock.....

 

Grossman continues to do what he did. Until he doesn't, that's who he is. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

If he keeps his OPS over .800, I'd rather see him worked into a corner OF platoon as an offense first guy to occasionally give Kep/Rosario/Buxton a day off.  I'd still rather get Vargas or Park in the DH spot sooner than later.  I like that the team can hit, but I think everyone is better if we get Molitor some flexibility, especially with a decent bat off the bench.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It was pure snark, Brock.....

 

Grossman continues to do what he did. Until he doesn't, that's who he is. 

Agreed. And that's really the point of my post. I'm not predicting Grossman to be an .800+ OPS player, I'm merely wondering when we consider him to be that player if he keeps hitting like he has with the Twins.

 

400 PAs is a slightly problematic sample size but it's not small, either. And Grossman's peripherals back up his performance (outside of BABIP, but if he loses .015-.025 in that regard, how much does that really hurt him?).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If he keeps his OPS over .800, I'd rather see him worked into a corner OF platoon as an offense first guy to occasionally give Kep/Rosario/Buxton a day off.  I'd still rather get Vargas or Park in the DH spot sooner than later.  I like that the team can hit, but I think everyone is better if we get Molitor some flexibility, especially with a decent bat off the bench.

I'd like to see platoons all over the place. Mix and match Kepler, Rosario, Park/Vargas, Grossman, Mauer, Sano, and Escobar based on matchup and rest days.

 

Which is one of the things that has impressed me about Molitor this season. He's not afraid to use a new lineup every day, the biggest problem is that the current bench is pretty awful.

[Doomtints]

Not understanding the suggestions to platoon the team's best hitter. Keep him in the lineup until he regresses, if he ever does.

[bighat]

 

Again, how the Twins fanbase has underrated Grossman's performance floors me.

 

You make great points on what he's contributed in regards to his on base percentage, etc.  And he's done....fine.  He hit a big home run yesterday and I'm happy about it, too.  I'm not arguing, just offering my opinion.  Maybe I'm wrong about the DH role, perhaps the style of hitter has evolved over the years and I've missed it. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You make great points on what he's contributed in regards to his on base percentage, etc.  And he's done....fine.  He hit a big home run yesterday and I'm happy about it, too.  I'm not arguing, just offering my opinion.  Maybe I'm wrong about the DH role, perhaps the style of hitter has evolved over the years and I've missed it. 

I think you're focusing too much on individual stats at the expense of the whole.

 

A DH needs to hit, on that we can all agree... but there are different ways to hit.

 

And thus far, Grossman has delivered in the "hitting" category. How he gets there is less important to me than where he ends up.

[drjim]

Any speculation on whether the Twins FO had a similar thought? Might have been another reason why they were hesitant to call up Park.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 the biggest problem is that the current bench is pretty awful.

 

I don't think you'll find too much disagreement there.  I'm just curious how long that will last. So far, the starters have been holding up and the pen has been decent.  Not sure if that will last, but I'd think once this long stretch of games is over or close to it, the front office is going to have to strengthen the bench, whether that be with Park, Vargas, or both, I don't know.