When do we begin to believe Robbie Grossman is a good hitter?

[drivlikejehu]

Grossman has a .334 BABIP in 1,180 career MLB PAs, which strikes me as very plausible going forward, considering his batted ball profile. 

 

With that BABIP, plus his plate patience and average power, an .800 OPS seems like a pretty reasonable target. Of course, a lot depends on how he is used . . . the more pertinent question is whether he makes sense as a starting DH against right-handed pitchers.

 

The problem is that all 3 of the main DH options - Grossman, Vargas, Park - are better against LHP. So at this point the choice would seem to be more about whether one of Vargas or Park (if/when healthy) should be DH against LHP while Grossman plays a corner OF spot . . . against RHP Grossman seems like as good of an option as there is, currently.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think you'll find too much disagreement there.  I'm just curious how long that will last. So far, the starters have been holding up and the pen has been decent.  Not sure if that will last, but I'd think once this long stretch of games is over or close to it, the front office is going to have to strengthen the bench, whether that be with Park, Vargas, or both, I don't know.

I'm hoping it's a problem that will be resolved soon and I suspect Michael Tonkin will be the guy left out in the cold.

 

And I'm okay with that. Hard to say anything bad about Haley's performance thus far and the front office may have stolen that guy in the draft.

[gocgo]

What I see happening without a legit DH that is a threat to go deep is that Sano will be pitched around.  What makes Cabrera tough?  The fact that the guy behind him, VMart, is a great hitter.  We don't have that and Grossman will never be that.  I see him as a guy that's just filling a spot for now until we find a legit DH.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What I see happening without a legit DH that is a threat to go deep is that Sano will be pitched around.  What makes Cabrera tough?  The fact that the guy behind him, VMart, is a great hitter.  We don't have that and Grossman will never be that.  I see him as a guy that's just filling a spot for now until we find a legit DH.

It's hard to pitch around Sano if you have two OBP guys in front of him. While Sano is a beast, if two guys are already on the basepaths, it's unlikely the other team is going to walk Miguel very often.

 

And you don't need a great hitter behind Sano in that situation, you just need a competent hitter. One of Kepler, Buxton, or Rosario will hopefully fill that role as the season progresses (man, Max was teeing off yesterday, a really impressive performance from him).

 

Thus far in the season, we've seen the Twins thrive by stacking really annoying hitters in a row: Dozier, Grossman, Mauer, and Sano. And when it has worked properly, walks have massacred opposing pitchers.

 

Time will tell whether that success has been a fluke of SSS or whether it's a strategy that can succeed over the long term.

[ashbury]

As for his defense, I remain unconvinced he's as bad as we saw in 2016. His defensive numbers with the Astros were rather pedestrian. It's possible he just had a really, really, really bad season that isn't indicative of his true talent.

He's really pretty slow, his arm is weak, and he took comically bad routes to the ball at times. Only the last of these looks like could be remotely coachable, at this stage in his career.

 

He's Willingham-bad^* in left, and you have to hit a ton to be an asset in that circumstance. It's basically like posting a lineup with two DHs.

 

I don't hate the guy, I just don't see his bat being strong enough to be a DH in the presence of better options when they come, and he isn't an asset on the field. He's kind of like the basketball "tweener", who isn't fast enough to defend or score against the quicker guards and isn't strong enough to defend or score against the stronger forwards - the guy can play, but where?

 

_{^* I have a ton of respect for Josh Willingham, who was one misguided dive away from permanent disability due to his bad back. But it didn't change the fact that he was a statue in left field.}

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

Thus far in the season, we've seen the Twins thrive by stacking really annoying hitters in a row: Dozier, Grossman, Mauer, and Sano. And when it has worked properly, walks have massacred opposing pitchers.

 

Man, I think that's a great way of describing it - annoying hitters.  

[nicksaviking]

 

If he keeps his OPS over .800, I'd rather see him worked into a corner OF platoon as an offense first guy to occasionally give Kep/Rosario/Buxton a day off.  I'd still rather get Vargas or Park in the DH spot sooner than later.  I like that the team can hit, but I think everyone is better if we get Molitor some flexibility, especially with a decent bat off the bench.

 

And Grossman is only 2 years older than Rosario. If Grossman can get his defense figured out and Rosario can't get his pitch selection figured out, it's not like it's out of the question that Grossman could end up being the long(er) term option and Eddie ends up being the odd man out.

[nicksaviking]

 

He's really pretty slow, his arm is weak, and he took comically bad routes to the ball at times. Only the last of these looks like could be remotely coachable, at this stage in his career.

 

He's Willingham-bad^* in left, and you have to hit a ton to be an asset in that circumstance. It's basically like posting a lineup with two DHs.

 

 

 

I agree, but where did this come from? He was the regular CF for Cleveland's AAA team last year. No way they would have ran him out there all 19 of his games if he was doing then what he's doing now.

 

[Willihammer]

 

Thus far in the season, we've seen the Twins thrive by stacking really annoying hitters in a row: Dozier, Grossman, Mauer, and Sano. And when it has worked properly, walks have massacred opposing pitchers.

Don't forget Buxton! Wait no, he's annoying for a totally different reason.

[ashbury]

I agree, but where did this come from? He was the regular CF for Cleveland's AAA team last year. No way they would have ran him out there all 19 of his games if he was doing then what he's doing now.

Teams do all kinds of things for 19 games. Long-shot guess, they were trying to trade him, in advance of having to let him go, and seeing if he could play acceptable CF might have increased his value? Didn't work, if so.

 

Nah, it wasn't his first experience in CF. Never saw him then, no idea.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Frankly, he may wind up playing LF more often pretty soon unless Rosario starts hitting.

The team needs to stick with Rosario for awhile. He's not getting the results but he's trending in a direction that will lead to more long-term success for Eddie.

 

Pitches per PA by season:

2015: 3.57

2016: 3.71

2017: 3.89

 

Swinging Strike by season:
2015: 14.5%
2016: 15.3%
2017: 11.8%

 

Contact Percentage by season:

2015: 75.1%

2016: 70.3%

2017: 80.7%

[ashbury]

Teams do all kinds of things for 19 games.

Addendum: The Diamondbacks played Chris Herrmann in centerfield for 10 innings last year. You can write anyone into a lineup, QED.

[bluechipper]

Grossman has a .334 BABIP in 1,180 career MLB PAs, which strikes me as very plausible going forward, considering his batted ball profile. 

 

With that BABIP, plus his plate patience and average power, an .800 OPS seems like a pretty reasonable target. Of course, a lot depends on how he is used . . . the more pertinent question is whether he makes sense as a starting DH against right-handed pitchers.

 

The problem is that all 3 of the main DH options - Grossman, Vargas, Park - are better against LHP. So at this point the choice would seem to be more about whether one of Vargas or Park (if/when healthy) should be DH against LHP while Grossman plays a corner OF spot . . . against RHP Grossman seems like as good of an option as there is, currently.

Well there's also an opening at 1B against left handed pitchers.

[nicksaviking]

 

Teams do all kinds of things for 19 games. Long-shot guess, they were trying to trade him, in advance of having to let him go, and seeing if he could play acceptable CF might have increased his value? Didn't work, if so.

 

Nah, it wasn't his first experience in CF. Never saw him then, no idea.

 

Could be, but there's no way the Twins would have put Josh Willingham in CF to try to market him. Grossman was a regular centerfielder throughout his career.

 

It'd be nice to find a bunch of defensive videos of him in Houston just to see if his mobility and arm were the same then as we saw them last year. It's just so hard to imagine a team at any level putting the guy we saw last year into the game as a CF under any circumstances.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

.....

Grossman continues to do what he did. Until he doesn't, that's who he is. 

I had to read that twice, but, um, yeah.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Grossman didn't only play CF in the minors for Cleveland, Houston also had him there most of the time. In his MiLB career, he started 323 games as CF, 87 as LF, 194 as RF.

 

And he didn't play CF in the low minors and then transition entirely to a corner spot, a la Oswaldo Arcia. He routinely played CF all the way through the upper minors.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Regarding Rosario...

It should probably be noted that his BABIP this year is .192.

 

His numbers should start to look better as that stat normalizes. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Regarding Rosario...

It should probably be noted that his BABIP this year is .192.

 

His numbers should start to look better as that stat normalizes. 

Yep, right now we should consider him a process guy, not a results guy. If he keeps doing what he's doing, the numbers should come around.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I had to read that twice, but, um, yeah.

 

Heh....

 

What I meant was, sometimes guys play a certain way, that is not expected. Sometimes they surprise us, and keep doing it.

 

Right now, he is doing that. I'd rather bet on him continuing (especially given the options) than assuming he'll start to be bad.

[Thrylos]

I don't know why would anyone think that Grossman was not a good hitter?  Check his numbers (fangraphs' link).  Other than a SSS of 54 PA with the Astros in 2015 (and that one game he played for Rochester last season), his career wRC has been excellent in the minors and in the majors started just a hair below average at 96, and has been improving every season, ending up at 127.   That's what happens to players.  They click at some point.  He is just entering his prime at 27 years old.

 

As far as the defense goes, other that parts of 2014 at the Astros OF where he was slightly above average, he has been pretty bad.  Is it fixable?  Maybe.   Let's not forget, he started his pro career as a centerfielder.  That said, I'd give him a first baseman's glove and have him take some reps out there as well.  It would not hurt...

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't know why would anyone think that Grossman was not a good hitter?  Check his numbers (fangraphs' link).  Other than a SSS of 54 PA with the Astros in 2015 (and that one game he played for Rochester last season), his career wRC has been excellent in the minors and in the majors started just a hair below average at 96, and has been improving every season, ending up at 127.   That's what happens to players.  They click at some point.  He is just entering his prime at 27 years old.

 

As far as the defense goes, other that parts of 2014 at the Astros OF where he was slightly above average, he has been pretty bad.  Is it fixable?  Maybe.   Let's not forget, he started his pro career as a centerfielder.  That said, I'd give him a first baseman's glove and have him take some reps out there as well.  It would not hurt...

 

agreed on all counts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

As far as the defense goes, other that parts of 2014 at the Astros OF where he was slightly above average, he has been pretty bad.  Is it fixable?  Maybe.   Let's not forget, he started his pro career as a centerfielder.  That said, I'd give him a first baseman's glove and have him take some reps out there as well.  It would not hurt...

To be clear, in no way am I suggesting Grossman will ever be a "good" outfielder, only that it's possible he can be "acceptably bad" out there once every week or two, not "disastrously bad".

[theBOMisthebomb]

Robbie has improved and my hope is that this current production level is truth and not a mirage.  He is creeping up on 1200 PAs so has reached the experience level necessary for his progression to be valid.  

[gocgo]

 

It's hard to pitch around Sano if you have two OBP guys in front of him. While Sano is a beast, if two guys are already on the basepaths, it's unlikely the other team is going to walk Miguel very often.

 

And you don't need a great hitter behind Sano in that situation, you just need a competent hitter. One of Kepler, Buxton, or Rosario will hopefully fill that role as the season progresses (man, Max was teeing off yesterday, a really impressive performance from him).

 

Thus far in the season, we've seen the Twins thrive by stacking really annoying hitters in a row: Dozier, Grossman, Mauer, and Sano. And when it has worked properly, walks have massacred opposing pitchers.

 

Time will tell whether that success has been a fluke of SSS or whether it's a strategy that can succeed over the long term.

Yeah, I agree, but I would think that pitchers will start challenging the guys in front of Sano more as the season goes on.  The walks so far have been insane and I can't imagine it continues.  I would say Kepler is a guy that can fill in behind Sano on the current roster, but I would like to see Park behind him as Park seems to hit righties better than lefties.  Contrary to some, I don't mind seeing Dozier in the leadoff role especially now that he is swiping bases.  Grossman isn't a bad 2 hitter because he takes a lot of pitches and gives Dozier a chance to steal a base.  Without Grossman there, Mauler makes the most sense at 2 for that reason.  I'd love to see Sano at 3 kind of like Cabrera with a power hitter behind him, but right now, it isn't broke, so I don't have a problem not fixing it.

[ashbury]

I had to read that twice, but, um, yeah.

Riverbrian is starting to rub off on him.

[Thrylos]

 

To be clear, in no way am I suggesting Grossman will ever be a "good" outfielder, only that it's possible he can be "acceptably bad" out there once every week or two, not "disastrously bad".

 

I'd take Grossman's bad over Santana's bad at OF any day, btw.

 

The "once over a week or two" is kinda Catch-22 situation:   A player needs to play every day to improve his defense and to learn the tendencies of his fellow players.  If you have a bad player out there every once a while, he will not improve.  The other thing is, that the Twins do not need Grossman to be an every day OF right now.

[nicksaviking]

 

To be clear, in no way am I suggesting Grossman will ever be a "good" outfielder, only that it's possible he can be "acceptably bad" out there once every week or two, not "disastrously bad".

 

We've already seen at Target Field you don't need a ton of range in RF, but you do need an arm. An undesirable arm can also be mitigated in LF but some range is kind of needed at TF. Poor range AND a weak arm are kind of hard to cover up though. One of those things needs to see improvement.

[DaveW]

One thing I imagine EVERYONE can agree on is that Grossman should be the backup to Joe at 1st base instead of freaking Gimenez!
If you platoon him with Rosario/Kepler (1 day a week each) have him play first 1 day a week, and DH him 1-2 day a week you still get him 5 starts a week (plus plenty of PH spots as well)

I'd still really really like to see Park up to the majors for an extended period to see what he can do at the plate. The guy has legit 70 power, and seemed to turn a corner in ST. If the guy can continue that? Wow, then suddenly you are talking about a really sexy top of the lineup with: Dozier, Mauer, Sano, Park, Kepler IMO

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

One thing I imagine EVERYONE can agree on is that literally anyone else should be the backup to Joe at 1st base instead of freaking Gimenez!

FIFY.

 

Hard to blame Molitor for 13 pitchers and his bench, though.

 

Unless he asked for this to happen, at which point it's entirely his fault.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Votto also hits 30 HR a year, that helps out the old BABIP

Joey Votto hit 30 inside that park home runs?