Article: Bullpen Competition Gets Crowded

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If Chargois isn't on the roster, are they just punting on using any young RPs? That would make no sense to me at all. In fact, it would greatly disappoint me.

I feel the same way but bullpens tend to go nuts in Spring Training. There are so many injuries, starters rotating into the pen, and general madness that I don't get too worked up about the roster until we have an idea what it will look like.

 

I wouldn't even rule out someone like Burdi coming to Spring Training, mowing down batters, and getting the nod on the Opening Day roster.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I see your point but when you can't get lefties out, you walk a ton of guys and you're homer prone and just the same as Nolasco, there is the door.  I read a piece over at twinkie town(link below) and scared the hell out of me.  Then thought, "the twins are paying this clown 8+mil for something May/Duffey can do. I would rather have Vogel in there.  I want him gone as soon as possible.  enough of these, just ok guys.  Are we fixing this or just paying anyone 8 mil to pitch to 5+ERA for 180 innings?

 

http://www.twinkietown.com/2017/2/2/14445886/hector-santiago-is-not-to-be-trusted-minnesota-twins-pitching

 

So... he's all these things and still better than Kyle Gibson.

I agree with you, and that's why I think the FO will be looking for an upgrade within the organization if Santiago or Gibson don't show better results this year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I feel the same way but bullpens tend to go nuts in Spring Training. There are so many injuries, starters rotating into the pen, and general madness that I don't get too worked up about the roster until we have an idea what it will look like.

 

I wouldn't even rule out someone like Burdi coming to Spring Training, mowing down batters, and getting the nod on the Opening Day roster.

 

I don't think Burdi is invited....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think Burdi is invited....

I was just checking on that. I think you're right.

[SotaFan14]

 

So... he's all these things and still better than Kyle Gibson.

I agree with you, and that's why I think the FO will be looking for an upgrade within the organization if Santiago or Gibson don't show better results this year.

That they are the same(Gibson a bit worse) but there is still hope Gibson can still rebound and offer the upside we have thought about for the last few years.  They both could go and I wouldn't care much. 

 

[Taildragger8791]

 

I was just checking on that. I think you're right.

 

Not to mention Burdi hasn't even dominated at AA yet. That would be quite a leap to go straight to the MLB roster.

[Mike Sixel]

Scratch Pat Light off the RP list....so that's probably good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not to mention Burdi hasn't even dominated at AA yet. That would be quite a leap to go straight to the MLB roster.

Given his age and velocity, he's the type of guy who can and possibly should be ushered right to the bigs.

 

Unfortunately, the dude keeps getting injured.

 

Relievers like Burdi don't have to learn three pitches and refine their command. They shouldn't be led along at a snail's pace as they were with the old front office.

 

Not that I'm saying Burdi should be on the MLB roster right now, only that whether he dominated enough lower levels sufficiently shouldn't be the deciding factor. If the dude can throw it 98 over the plate and not walk every other batter, get him up here because, in case no one else has noticed, the bullpen is terrible.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Given his age and velocity, he's the type of guy who can and possibly should be ushered right to the bigs.

 

Unfortunately, the dude keeps getting injured.

 

Relievers like Burdi don't have to learn three pitches and refine their command. They shouldn't be led along at a snail's pace as they were with the old front office.

 

Not that I'm saying Burdi should be on the MLB roster right now, only that whether he dominated enough lower levels sufficiently shouldn't be the deciding factor. If the dude can throw it 98 over the plate and not walk every other batter, get him up here because, in case no one else has noticed, the bullpen is terrible.

 

Totally agree. The problem is he doesn't throw it over the plate. His last extended stint at AA (2015) he had 32 walks in 43.2 innings. There's no amount of strikeout ability in existence that can counterbalance walking a guy almost every outing.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Depending on how Haley pitches in spring, he is likely in the pen.  Hughes will not be in the pen. On the same note, Santiago is not a lock in the rotation.  If he doesn't do well in spring(something I hope happens) he can be released with us only on the hook for 30 days of his salary if he gets cut before 16 days into ST or 45 days salary if he is release before the season.  If he somehow makes the 25 man roster going into the season, we are stuck with his bad contract.  Jason Hammel is making 8mil with the Royals so this is a no brainer, dump the dead weight.

 

Here is the way I see it playing out.

 

Pen:

Kintzler

Pressley

Belisle

Rogers

Chargois

Haley

Duffy or O'Rourke

DL: Perkins

 

Rotation:

Santana

Berrios

Gibson

May

Hughes

 

DFA/Released:

Tonkin

Santiago

I think you're pretty close, but... 

 

Justin Haley will get a chance to start. If he does well in ST, and Hughes struggles or has to go on the DL, Haley could get the fifth spot in the rotation. 

 

Otherwise, I think you're spot- on.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

...

 because, in case no one else has noticed, the bullpen is terrible.

 2016 Twins per FanGraphs:

Fielding.................29th of 30

Batting..................25th of 30

Pitching (starters)...26th of 30

Pitching (relief).......23rd of 30  

 

So, two things:

1. You are right

2. Our bullpen was the highlight of the team last year

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

 2016 Twins per FanGraphs:

Fielding.................29th of 30

Batting..................25th of 30

Pitching (starters)...26th of 30

Pitching (relief).......23rd of 30  

 

So, two things:

1. You are right

2. Our bullpen was the highlight of the team last year

Touche.

[Rosterman]

There's sure a mess of names to fill in the blanks.

 

Perkins.

Kintzler

Belisle

Pressly

Rogers

are all givens.

 

O'Routke

Chargois

Tonkin

are in the mix

 

Have to decide about

Duffey

Haley.

 

We also have

Boshers

Light

Baxendale

Miller

Reed

Wimmers

at Rochester

 

People like

Zach Jones

Hildenberger

Bard

Burdi

Melotakis

Peterson 

shouldn't be at Chattanooga.

 

And then look at the rotation mess at Rochester:

Greenwood

Pino

Rucinski

Turley

Tracy

Tepsch

Huribut

Vogels

Wheeler

Mejia

 

not to mention

Gonsalves

Jay

Stewart

 

And the Twins can't put together a dominant bullpen or rotation...yet!

 

[Doomtints]

 

 2016 Twins per FanGraphs:

Fielding.................29th of 30

Batting..................25th of 30

Pitching (starters)...26th of 30

Pitching (relief).......23rd of 30  

 

So, two things:

1. You are right

2. Our bullpen was the highlight of the team last year

 

But wait, don't we hear often that the hitting is fine?

[Taildragger8791]

 

But wait, don't we hear often that the hitting is fine?

 

It isn't "fine" just yet but there is a lot of talent in the lineup presenting a realistic potential for improvement. There are no guarantees, but there is a clear path to success there. That's miles ahead of the rotation which doesn't have anywhere near that level of upside in the system, nor is there even a clear path towards respectability.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Hildenberger's numbers are flat out nasty, I read in his bio on MLB.com that he's a sidewinder and can throw over the top? Who does he best resemble delivery-wise?

Here is a short YouTube video of him throwing in the AFL two years ago. To my eye it looks like he comes a little bit more over the top on the last pitch he throws in that sequence, which (as you alluded to) he has a reputation of doing. He also does a lot to try and throw hitters out of rhythm. He'll quick pitch or hold the ball for a really long time. Definitely tries to get every advantage he can.

 

It's possible he's been getting by on gimmicks, and it's probably a bad idea to get too excited about a 26-year-old former 22nd-round pick, but I'm a believer. Like you said, the numbers are completely filthy. 

[DocBauer]

I'll be totally honest guys, the pen has me stumped. I love to speculate and put pen to paper for all kinds of roster's and lineups and I just don't know how this is going to turn out.

 

I get all the high potential RP arms that are rising through the system, but really, right now, only Chargois has pitched above AA with any significance. I'm a big fan and believer in Melotakis, but he was pretty much limited to not pitching consecutive days in 2016. Will the new regime be more aggressive with him over a year post surgery? Perhaps. And I would absolutely love to see him force his way on to the club. But I'm betting he begins the season in AAA initially. Hildenberger intrigues me immensely and I think he could be for real. But again, no time above AA. I can't believe the FO moved to acquire Haley and won't keep him in some capacity, via RP spot or trade. Duffey has to have a spot somewhere doesn't he? O'Rourke has proven to be effective when/if used properly. Bang on Boshers all you want because he wasn't a top prospect and came from independent ball, but he was actually good except for a couple of games and had very solid K numbers.

 

The whole point is I'm rambling because I just don't know at this point. And as stated by others, these things DO have a way of working themselves out. I DON'T think our bullpen is anything to brag about at this point, but I DO think there are enough interesting options here to think we should be better...may be building something...and could/should have the best bullpen we've had in a few years. And I believe it will be in a state of Flux throughout the season.

 

Quantity does not necessarily mean or equal quality. But in this case, I think there is enough quantity of potential to be a little bit excited for what is to come.

[The Wise One]

There is a lot of quantity in the pen. If Kinzler is your closer and Pressly and the signee are your set up  guys, quality is a definite problem.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 2016 Twins per FanGraphs:

Fielding.................29th of 30

Batting..................25th of 30

Pitching (starters)...26th of 30

Pitching (relief).......23rd of 30  

 

So, two things:

1. You are right

2. Our bullpen was the highlight of the team last year

It appears you are using just overall WAR for batting, so this isn't quite correct.  Fielding is already part of a batter's overall WAR.

 

If you sort by Offensive runs (the "Off" column at Fangraphs) -- that has the Twins at 17th:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

 

Of course, that puts the whole "positional adjustment" in the Defense column, which probably isn't right when NL teams have pitchers batting instead of DHs.  NL teams have 15-20 more runs for positional adjustment than AL teams.  Adding those in, that would push two NL teams ahead of us, so perhaps more accurately we could be considered 19th in "batting".

 

So I think batting was still our (relative) "highlight" of 2016.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It appears you are using just overall WAR for batting, so this isn't quite correct.  Fielding is already part of a batter's overall WAR.

 

If you sort by Offensive runs (the "Off" column at Fangraphs) -- that has the Twins at 17th:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

 

Of course, that puts the whole "positional adjustment" in the Defense column, which probably isn't right when NL teams have pitchers batting instead of DHs.  NL teams have 15-20 more runs for positional adjustment than AL teams.  Adding those in, that would push two NL teams ahead of us, so perhaps more accurately we could be considered 19th in "batting".

 

So I think batting was still our (relative) "highlight" of 2016.

Yeah, I didn't take the batting number listed very seriously, more as a humorous take on the bullpen and the team's overall terribleness last season.

 

The Twins offense was obviously better than 25th out of 30 teams. Their OPS fell right in the middle of the pack in the AL, IIRC.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, I didn't take the batting number listed very seriously, more as a humorous take on the bullpen and the team's overall terribleness last season.

 

The Twins offense was obviously better than 25th out of 30 teams. Their OPS fell right in the middle of the pack in the AL, IIRC.

Looking at it further -- if you ignore pitcher batting, the Twins were 22nd in offensive runs at Fangraphs.  This includes batting (23rd) and baserunning (8th) and park adjustments:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=6,d

 

By raw OPS for non-ptichers, the Twins were tied for 19th:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d

 

8th in the AL in OPS, but down to 11th in wRC+ or batting runs, so we must be getting dinged for park factors?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

8th in the AL in OPS, but down to 11th in wRC+ or batting runs, so we must be getting dinged for park factors?

I've noticed that trend over the past couple of years. After being an extreme pitcher's park in 2010, it seems Target Field has slowly evolved into a slightly hitter-friendly ballpark.

 

Which doesn't make one damned bit of sense. To me, it brings into the question the validity of park adjustments. I can understand some fluctuation as the park plays for a few years but not a wild swing to "cannot hit homers here" to "hey, this place is on the hitter-friendly side of the scale".

 

It can't be entirely coincidental that as the Twins field an incrementally worse and worse pitching staff, the park suddenly becomes "hitter friendly".

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

It can't be entirely coincidental that as the Twins field an incrementally worse and worse pitching staff, the park suddenly becomes "hitter friendly".

 

This is what I was thinking.  Petco would be a hitters park with what the Twins put in place the last few years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This is what I was thinking.  Petco would be a hitters park with what the Twins put in place the last few years.

Not only that but the Twins defense has grown worse as well.

 

And the AL Central, their primary opponents, have gotten better.

[Bill Brown69]

Sorry Brock but I think pitching staff/ hitters for the home team can sway the park factor by a ton. Put Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in Target field and see what happens. Or maybe put Bonds, Willingham, Dozier and Joeybats all on their best years and see what that turns it into. Sometimes a team comes together with monster pitching and not a lot of O and then "its a pitchers park" but if the home team has no pitching but a couple guys who can/will try to homer to get back in the game then "its a hitters park"

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sorry Brock but I think pitching staff/ hitters for the home team can sway the park factor by a ton. Put Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in Target field and see what happens. Or maybe put Bonds, Willingham, Dozier and Joeybats all on their best years and see what that turns it into. Sometimes a team comes together with monster pitching and not a lot of O and then "its a pitchers park" but if the home team has no pitching but a couple guys who can/will try to homer to get back in the game then "its a hitters park"

If this is true - and I'm not conceding it is - then park factor is mostly useless.

 

The only way to properly calculate park factor is to use a wide range of seasons and compare them to other parks during the same year.

 

For example, one would need to treat the seven years of Target Field nearly equally and Target Field can't be isolated; ie. 2010 Target Field needs to be offset by factors such as "how did the 2010 Indians play in Yankee Stadium, how did the 2010 Rangers play in Angel Stadium, etc." and equalize those numbers against how those same teams performed in 2010 Target Field.

 

That's the only way I can think of to minimize home team influence on their own stadium.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For what it's worth, we're not talking huge differences here. The difference between a team ranking 19th and 23rd in a batting isn't that big of a deal.  If that's an example of park factors overstating something, then park factors aren't a big problem.

 

Although the future of park factors could be a lot cooler:

https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2016/10/03/improving-park-factors-through-statcast-data/

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For what it's worth, we're not talking huge differences here. The difference between a team ranking 19th and 23rd in a batting isn't that big of a deal.  If that's an example of park factors overstating something, then park factors aren't a big problem.

 

Although the future of park factors could be a lot cooler:

https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2016/10/03/improving-park-factors-through-statcast-data/

Ah, yes, okay. They're going even deeper than my idea and that's a good thing. Instead of looking at team performance, they're isolating hit types.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

If this is true - and I'm not conceding it is - then park factor is mostly useless.

 

The only way to properly calculate park factor is to use a wide range of seasons and compare them to other parks during the same year.

 

For example, one would need to treat the seven years of Target Field nearly equally and Target Field can't be isolated; ie. 2010 Target Field needs to be offset by factors such as "how did the 2010 Indians play in Yankee Stadium, how did the 2010 Rangers play in Angel Stadium, etc." and equalize those numbers against how those same teams performed in 2010 Target Field.

 

That's the only way I can think of to minimize home team influence on their own stadium.

 

Then you'd have to factor in the pitching. "How many runs did the pitchers give up in Target Field in 2010?, 2011?, 2012?..." And for each team.

 

Otherwise the talent on the pitching staff would have everything to do with how many runs the Giants scored in Target Field, especially as the Giants have a SSS in Target Field.

 

Lots of variables.

[Gheggs08]

I think opening day we are looking at 

 

Rotation:

Santana

Gibson

Santiago*

Hughes* 

May

 

Vogelsong- Just a feeling he has a good spring and bumps someone from above

 

*I'd like to see Berrios for one of Hughes not being ready yet or Santiago let go 

 

Pen:

Kintzler

Pressly

Belisle

Rogers

 

O'Rourke/Boshers

Chargois

Haley- long relief 

 

Blanton- I hope we can get him and DFA Tonkin

Tonkin (I think they give him another shot, especially if we have 8 guys in the pen and don't sign anyone else)

 

I think Perkins starts the year on the DL, as a precaution more than anything

 

Would like to see Duffey at AAA in the bullpen and one of the first to get a call up