Steven Gonsalves & Keith Law: Good but No Good

[caninatl04]

Keith Law's pre-season rankings are dribbling out.  Alex Kirilloff is ranked, which is good, but Law throws shade on the rest of the Twins' prospect bats by suggesting he, at #97 is the best bat in the organization.

 

But the point of this post is that Keith Law also ranks Gonsalves.  I guess that would be good news, but he damns him with very faint praise: 45 fastball, 30, yes 30 breaking ball and maybe an average (45? 50?) cutter.  And an increase in strike rates.

 

Oh, and Law sees no role (not even as a reliever) for Kohl Stewart.

 

Overall Good News:

 

Of the only 20 Top 100 announced, three are Twins.  Simple math (100 / 30 teams) suggest that each team should, on average have 3 prospects.  That the twins have three announced already is a positive vote for the depth. 

 

Overall Bad News:

 

I hope the jury is still out on Kirilloff, but being names is not bad.  But a third-party opinion that two highly regarded prospects could be, at best, a #4 starter (of which the Twins have an abundance) and may not be even a reliever has to be a blow.

[beckmt]

If the 20 are the bottom 20 and we have not yet seen Gordon, Twins will have at least one more.  You did not give Gonsalves rank, but 81-100 seems right.  Kirilloff has played one year in the minors, will know more depending if they send him to Cedar Rapids or try and jump him to Ft. Myers.  I hope the latter, as he will see about the same or just slightly better pitching at Cedar Rapids. 

Gonsalves will probably start in Rochester and will get a better read on if he will make it there.

Who was the third Twin on his lower list?

[gunnarthor]

He had Stewart, Gonsalves and Kiriloff in his 81-100 range. Gordon and Jay will probably be higher.

[Physics Guy]

 

He had Stewart, Gonsalves and Kiriloff in his 81-100 range. Gordon and Jay will probably be higher.

Possibly Romero as well if this quote from his most recent chat is any indicator:

 

Dusty: Do you think Fernando Romero of the Twins has a good chance of becoming a frontline pitching prospect this year?
Klaw: Might already be one.

 

Also from the chat:

Anonymous: Of all your farm system rankings, name a couple of systems that have the best group of reliever prospects.
Klaw: Twins come to mind immediately. Chargois, Reed, Melotakis, Burdi if healthy, etc.

 

[Thrylos]

If anything Law is higher than most of us are on Stewart. 

 

Gonsalves is a great example of a  pitcher who seems that he is pitching way better than his stuff, unless you see that BB%.  That CU is changeup (and not cutter) and is Gonsalves' best pitch.  On the other hand, lefties with good fastballs and  plus changeups and lots of durability, are valuable.  If the command of his fastball improves to plus, and his changeup improves to plus plus, then Gonsalves looks like a couple of LHSP for the Twins of yore.   Still a lot of way to go though, and the two pitchers I am talking about were already in the majors at his age...

[nytwinsfan]

 

If the 20 are the bottom 20 and we have not yet seen Gordon, Twins will have at least one more. 

 

Umm, but caninatl04 specifically said: 

 

Keith Law's pre-season rankings are dribbling out.  Alex Kirilloff is ranked, which is good, but Law throws shade on the rest of the Twins' prospect bats by suggesting he, at #97 is the best bat in the organization.

 

Doesn't that suggest Gordon isn't ranked at all??? What am I missing here?

 

*EDIT - after reading what Law said, I realize that while I took caninatl04 to be engaging in synecdoche, by using "bat" to mean "position player."  In fact Law and caninatl04 just meant best "offensive upside." So Gordon is likely still ranked as a position player because of his decent offensive floor, defense, and valuable position.

[Physics Guy]

 

Keith Law's pre-season rankings are dribbling out.  Alex Kirilloff is ranked, which is good, but Law throws shade on the rest of the Twins' prospect bats by suggesting he, at #97 is the best bat in the organization.

 

But the point of this post is that Keith Law also ranks Gonsalves.  I guess that would be good news, but he damns him with very faint praise: 45 fastball, 30, yes 30 breaking ball and maybe an average (45? 50?) cutter.  And an increase in strike rates.

 

Oh, and Law sees no role (not even as a reliever) for Kohl Stewart.

 

Overall Good News:

 

Of the only 20 Top 100 announced, three are Twins.  Simple math (100 / 30 teams) suggest that each team should, on average have 3 prospects.  That the twins have three announced already is a positive vote for the depth. 

 

Overall Bad News:

 

I hope the jury is still out on Kirilloff, but being names is not bad.  But a third-party opinion that two highly regarded prospects could be, at best, a #4 starter (of which the Twins have an abundance) and may not be even a reliever has to be a blow.

I think you misinterpreted what he wrote.  He said Kiriloff has the chance to be the best prospect in the system if he improves his pitch selection.  Here is what he said about Gonsalves:

 

"Gonsalves still has a 45 fastball and a plus changeup, although he also has some deception in his delivery for the fastball to play up, but he has added a cutter now that has a chance to end up an average pitch, thrown at 84-87 mph. It's below average at the moment, but he just started throwing it within the past year, and I would bet on that over the big 72 mph curveball he babies to get it to break correctly."

 

That gives him a chance at three average or better offerings.

 

On Stewart:

"He’s an outstanding athlete, his arm works and he’s been healthy the last two years, so it’s all untapped potential here. But it’s time for him to become a well-rounded pitcher who sets hitters up and uses his whole repertoire so he can reach his ceiling as at least a mid-rotation starter. If not, it’s not clear what his role will be, because missing as few bats as h does may not even work in the bullpen."

 

Your OP that says he sees no role for Stewart is not accurate.  You don't put guys in the top 100 that have no role.

 

The Twins were rated #11 overall, so I think they are likely to have a couple others on the list, maybe three in Gordon, Jay and Romero.

 

[markos]

80-61 have been posted. Fernando Romero makes an appearance. Still no Gordon or Jay (I'm guessing Jay doesn't make the list).

 

Also, he ranked De Leon at #73, and part of the reasoning is that he says that De Leon doesn't have an out pitch, "De Leon generated just nine swing-and-misses in 302 pitches in the majors, which tells you something about his raw stuff." However, Fangraphs and BR both have him with 32 swing-and-misses in the big leagues, good for 10.3%, which would put him in the top-30 overall for qualified starters. Does anyone know of any other sources for swing-and-miss data? I don't think of Law as the type to make something like that up, but I'm at a lost for what would cause such a large discrepancy.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Also, he ranked De Leon at #73, and part of the reasoning is that he says that De Leon doesn't have an out pitch, "De Leon generated just nine swing-and-misses in 302 pitches in the majors, which tells you something about his raw stuff." However, Fangraphs and BR both have him with 32 swing-and-misses in the big leagues, good for 10.3%, which would put him in the top-30 overall for qualified starters. Does anyone know of any other sources for swing-and-miss data? I don't think of Law as the type to make something like that up, but I'm at a lost for what would cause such a large discrepancy.

 

Brooks Baseball lists him with 298 pitches thrown. It also shows 9 swings and misses on his change up, maybe that's what he meant.

 

Either way, I'm happy to hear Klaw's assessment. I also was/am very skeptical that a righty with a 92 MPH FB would get many strikeouts with only a changeup and a reportedly below average slider. I'd think he needs either a better breaking pitch or more velocity to continue his success at the MLB level. Or throw with his left hand.

[clutterheart]

Uh oh.

Stewart is my breakout candidate for 2017. I still think this is the year.

But...Law is a pretty good baseball mind

[drjim]

 

Uh oh.

Stewart is my breakout candidate for 2017. I still think this is the year.

But...Law is a pretty good baseball mind

 

I think the ranking would suggest Law might agree with you. He'll be by far the highest on Stewart.

[gunnarthor]

Can someone give an outline of his impressions of Romero?  And what Dodger prospects have been ranked so far?

[Mike Sixel]

Remero is "some reliever risk in his delivery, but has the best shot of anyone in the system to be a number 1 or 2 starter"

 

Seriously, pay the money, it's cheap.

 

Only De Leon is ranked so far.

[gunnarthor]

 

Remero is "some reliever risk in his delivery, but has the best shot of anyone in the system to be a number 1 or 2 starter"

 

Seriously, pay the money, it's cheap.

 

Only De Leon is ranked so far.

Thanks.  It's not about the money, it's a longterm grudge I have against ESPN that is completely irrational but firm.  Plus, if I had insider, I'd get even less work done.  

[Physics Guy]

 

Plus, if I had insider, I'd get even less work done.  

I can vouch for that thought. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Thanks.  It's not about the money, it's a longterm grudge I have against ESPN that is completely irrational but firm.  Plus, if I had insider, I'd get even less work done.  

 

I'm down to only reading KLAW, and the NFL draft stuff, on insider. Just for KLAW, imo, it is worth it. But I understand your irrational hatred, trust me....

[Steve Lein]

I think I've always been higher on Stewart than most, and it's not just because he is also a diabetic

 

He limits hard contact. He gave up a lot of hits at AA last year (1.47 WHIP), but his walk rate was better than Gonsalves and he still had only a 3.03 ERA. 

 

I think there's less he needs to figure out in there among his style and stuff to improve on what he's lacking, than there is for a lot of others. He had a lot of good games with Chattanooga (10 "Quality" starts in 16 turns).

 

This is a big year for him though, he needs to show he can be more than a groundball guy to reach anything more than back-end potential.

[caninatl04]

Thank you everyone for keeping this discussion going.  Just to clarify a couple of items:

 

• that our best (pure?) bat is ranked is good.  That its ranked so low is bad.  But then again, generating runs isn't the Twins' top priority.
• My primary point is that I, along with I assume some of you, were hoping we had some great SP arms.  I was disappointed less in Gonsalves' rank (any SP ranked among the top 100 in mLB is good), but that KLAW saw such a limited upside and that, with Gonsalves, the Twins' deepest position might be "back-of-the-rotation 5.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP starter".

[Mike Sixel]

Gordon will be in the top 60.....he doesn't project to hit as well as Kiriloff, but he will, according to KLAW in the past, play SS and hit.....so I wouldn't be that scared of that part.

[caninatl04]

KLAW ranks the Twins' prospects as #13. This is the first time in a looong time they have not been Top 10 (Sano and Buxton were promoted). And although #13 is better than average, the opinion is that the field is wide, but with few top prospects:

 

"What they don’t have, at least anywhere at a full-season level, is a future star -- a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, a middle of the order bat, a potential MVP candidate, nothing quite like that." Keith Law

 

With 3 in the top 40 picks this draft season, I suspect the prospect ranking will once again go into the Top 10 and the Twins' fans cry of NOT "wait until next year..." but "wait, umm, four to six years from now", will yet again prevail.

 

Again, thanks for everyone's input.

[caninatl04]

Sorry-- the Twins' prospects are ranked #11, not #13.  Mea Culpa Maxima

[mlhouse]

 

I think I've always been higher on Stewart than most, and it's not just because he is also a diabetic

 

He limits hard contact. He gave up a lot of hits at AA last year (1.47 WHIP), but his walk rate was better than Gonsalves and he still had only a 3.03 ERA. 

 

I think there's less he needs to figure out in there among his style and stuff to improve on what he's lacking, than there is for a lot of others. He had a lot of good games with Chattanooga (10 "Quality" starts in 16 turns).

 

This is a big year for him though, he needs to show he can be more than a groundball guy to reach anything more than back-end potential.

 

 

I live in Ft Myers so watching Kohl Stewart in person is something I have done.  One of the main criticisms of Stewart is that he does not miss bats.  The reason for this is the movement plane of his slider.  It stays too much in the same plane.  Because of this, even if non-advanced hitters guess wrong between fastball and slider, they are not going to miss. They might not make solid contact all the time, but more advanced hitters will be able to adjust on the pitch.

 

Right now, Stewart is a fastball-changeup pitcher that can spot the ball well with nice change of speeds. His curveball can be an effective pitch but he is very inconsistent with it now.  To be a top half of the rotation starter in the big leagues Stewart needs to develop some bite to his slider so that it drops plane and makes hitters miss it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

KLAW ranks the Twins' prospects as #13. This is the first time in a looong time they have not been Top 10 (Sano and Buxton were promoted). And although #13 is better than average, the opinion is that the field is wide, but with few top prospects:

"What they don’t have, at least anywhere at a full-season level, is a future star -- a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, a middle of the order bat, a potential MVP candidate, nothing quite like that." Keith Law

With 3 in the top 40 picks this draft season, I suspect the prospect ranking will once again go into the Top 10 and the Twins' fans cry of NOT "wait until next year..." but "wait, umm, four to six years from now", will yet again prevail.

Again, thanks for everyone's input.

 

Oh, I agree, imo, with this much losing, they should be higher than they are. They've largely failed to trade veterans well, and they don't seem to have gotten really LUCKY with a pick lately. And, Sano, Polanco, and Kepler have nothing to do with the losing, they came in int'l FA......

[Taildragger8791]

 

I live in Ft Myers so watching Kohl Stewart in person is something I have done.  One of the main criticisms of Stewart is that he does not miss bats.  The reason for this is the movement plane of his slider.  It stays too much in the same plane.  Because of this, even if non-advanced hitters guess wrong between fastball and slider, they are not going to miss. They might not make solid contact all the time, but more advanced hitters will be able to adjust on the pitch.

 

Right now, Stewart is a fastball-changeup pitcher that can spot the ball well with nice change of speeds. His curveball can be an effective pitch but he is very inconsistent with it now.  To be a top half of the rotation starter in the big leagues Stewart needs to develop some bite to his slider so that it drops plane and makes hitters miss it.

 

I'm confused. Wasn't his slider scouted as "plus" (60/70) coming out of high school? The Twins even had him shelve it for the first couple years since he didn't need to work on it and so he wouldn't rely on it. How could it be so hittable then?

[Taildragger8791]

It's understandable that we would have dropped off a little with so much talent graduating out of the prospect rankings. But it's more than a little disappointing that we've dropped from top-2 to middle of the pack when we've been a nearly last place team for 5 out of 6 years. Shouldn't we have some more impact potential in the low minors? Have we not signed any significant international free agents the last few years?

[Vanimal46]

 

It's understandable that we would have dropped off a little with so much talent graduating out of the prospect rankings. But it's more than a little disappointing that we've dropped from top-2 to middle of the pack when we've been a nearly last place team for 5 out of 6 years. Shouldn't we have some more impact potential in the low minors? Have we not signed any significant international free agents the last few years?

Wander Javier is the big one that comes to mind... Other than that, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Pardon My Dinger]

Where's Buxton on his list? He's always on these things. 

[Sweetwater]

Good on the Twins for not caving in to the Dodgers 1-1 demand with De Leon. You've got to get two of those kind of guys and pray one pans out. Keep Dozier until further notice.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Where's Buxton on his list? He's always on these things. 

I assume this is supposed to be funny... And it is. 

 

If it's not supposed to be funny, then Buxton graduated from this list in 2016.

 

But yeah, I miss him being #1 or #2...

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Good on the Twins for not caving in to the Dodgers 1-1 demand with De Leon. You've got to get two of those kind of guys and pray one pans out. Keep Dozier until further notice.

Agreed. Dozier is worth more to the Twins in 2017 then a prospect who may or may not pan out.