Passan: Dodgers Nearing Deal for Forsythe

[Oxtung]

 

If everything is fine, why fire Ryan?

Come now Mike, you know there is a big difference between being OK with Dozier sticking around given the likely offers and being OK with the current state of the entire organization.

[DaveW]

In re to the "give them the benefit of the doubt" crowd. This is the same ownership that let the Twins dance around in mediocrity for 20+ years before finally making a half measure change (fire Ryan but keep around Molitor and half the front office)

 

Sorry, but this offseason gets a big fat F from

me so far. They improved their major league team by maybe a half win in the Castro signing, and haven't improved the future at all.

[Mike Sixel]

Is the offseason over?

 

You're complaining now because the Twins didn't make a bad trade.

Who is left to sign? Who will offer more for Dozier? Who else are they going to trade? And, I don't know the offer, so I can't say they turned down a bad trade. All I know with any certainty is they have an asset that expires in two years, they don't think Jorge can play SS, and they have a fairly bad pitching staff, probably terrible, along with what could be a really bad defense on the left side. That's Ali we actually know....

[jimmer]

 

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/823683869513842688 

So do I.  That's how deep their farm is.

[Kwak]

 

And this is why Alvarez was never offered. 

Unless: it was DeLeon OR Alvarez. That would make the statement DeLeon and Alvarez were on the table but not as a combination.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I don't think we should be too upset about this. By all (confirmed) indications, De Leon was the only real piece the Twins would have received for Dozier. The risks involved have been well documented on this site. If this was truly the case, I'm glad the Twins passed. They can either trade Dozier later or try to extend him.

 

Of course, this trade means Tampa now has a vacancy at second base. Dozier would not be a perfect fit by any means, because the Rays weren't a whole lot better than the Twins last year. However, there have been a few rumors about Tampa looking to unload some of its pitching surplus. Archer is out of the question. Someone like Odorizzi or Snell could be interesting.

 

I don't think a Dozier trade to the Rays is realistic whatsoever. Just saying. . .

The Rays could give you De Leon.

[DaveW]

The Rays could give you De Leon.

We learned our lesson with the Young for Garza+Bartlett trade!

[prouster]

 

The Rays could give you De Leon.

 

Hey now. I think that would be a good starting point.

[Mr. Brooks]

Come now Mike, you know there is a big difference between being OK with Dozier sticking around given the likely offers and being OK with the current state of the entire organization.

The approach so far seems to be do nothing, and cross our fingers hoping our players improve.

 

The trade market is what it is. DeLeon may be less than Dozier's absolute value, but it's still better than nothing.

Calling it a bad trade is an opinion, not a fact.

[Seth Stohs]

 

And this is why Alvarez was never offered. 

 

For sure.

 

The discussions on the offers had to be fascinating. Obviously Falvey comes from Cleveland and had their organization's thoughts on the Dodgers prospects. Thad Falvey brought the Rangers thoughts/opinions on the Dodgers prospects. And, Rob Antony brought to the table how the Twins scouts/coaches/evaluators ranked and felt about the Dodgers prospects. That's a lot of opinion to put together and to create discussion. 

 

It's quite likely that overall, the Twins may have ranked De Leon as the Dodgers 3rd or 4th best pitching prospects too. Most would have Urias 1... I think a lot see Alvarez higher than De Leon... And Buehler was the 7th or 8th overall pick just a couple of years ago, and so they'd want to keep him coming off of TJ Surgery too.

[gunnarthor]

 

Who is left to sign? Who will offer more for Dozier? Who else are they going to trade? And, I don't know the offer, so I can't say they turned down a bad trade. All I know with any certainty is they have an asset that expires in two years, they don't think Jorge can play SS, and they have a fairly bad pitching staff, probably terrible, along with what could be a really bad defense on the left side. That's Ali we actually know....

The Twins will be better because they have a lot of young talent on the team.  We apparently upgraded at catcher, which was demanded by everyone, and even bought into pitch framing.  The Twins will be better because the pitchers aren't as bad as they were last year.  The Twins will be better because Berrios is a better pitcher than De Leon.  If you want a backend starter, they can still sign Hammel. There are a number of relief arms still out there. 

 

Arguing that we can't know what the Twins were offered for Dozier (despite all the evidence we have) and then complaining that we didn't trade Dozier is just bitching for bitching's sake.  The Twins were offered De Leon and junk.  That's the most credible reports.  They correctly said no.  They kept a player that makes the 2017 team better. 

[gunnarthor]

 

 

For sure.

 

The discussions on the offers had to be fascinating. Obviously Falvey comes from Cleveland and had their organization's thoughts on the Dodgers prospects. Thad Falvey brought the Rangers thoughts/opinions on the Dodgers prospects. And, Rob Antony brought to the table how the Twins scouts/coaches/evaluators ranked and felt about the Dodgers prospects. That's a lot of opinion to put together and to create discussion. 

 

It's quite likely that overall, the Twins may have ranked De Leon as the Dodgers 3rd or 4th best pitching prospects too. Most would have Urias 1... I think a lot see Alvarez higher than De Leon... And Buehler was the 7th or 8th overall pick just a couple of years ago, and so they'd want to keep him coming off of TJ Surgery too.

Twins also hired that FO scout from the Dodgers.  They had a good idea of the value and worth of the parties involved.  They set a price and it wasn't met.  That's a good thing, not a bad thing.

[prouster]

 

The best rebuilding teams trade their veterans. The others sit pat, because they aren't willing to pay the price of being bad. So far, what is better about this team? And if you say growth, then why fire Ryan?

 

I agree. But they don't make trades for the sake of making trades. Selling assets for less than they're worth is a great way to stay terrible. De Leon would have been a nice get, but he would not have been enough on his own. Good baseball executives hold out for the second or third piece, because there is always a chance they could pan out better than the centerpiece. Corey Kulber and Carlos Carrasco are good examples of this. They were both throw-ins that turned out to be really good for Cleveland. So, when trading a player like Dozier, I really think the people in charge should hold out for a second (or third, or fourth . . .) player they are truly excited about. For one, it hedges the risk of accepting a 1-for-1 swap, and it could turn into unexpected value down the road.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Does make me wonder about De Leon too.

Alvarez and Buehler are the scheduled replacements for McCarthy and Kazmir.  Deleon is blocked unless they want to eat the contracts of McCarthy($20 million left) and Kazmir($32 million left).  Considering they're eating Carl Crawford's remaining $20 million this year, I can't see them doing that. I think they would sell Kazmir at 50 cents on the dollar and McCarthy at 70 cents on the dollar.  Stewart and Wood are insurance until Buehler and Alvarez are ready.  It's not an indictment on JDL.  My biggest concern with Deleon is that he's HR prone.  

[KirbyDome89]

 

 

 

Arguing that we can't know what the Twins were offered for Dozier (despite all the evidence we have) and then complaining that we didn't trade Dozier is just bitching for bitching's sake.  The Twins were offered De Leon and junk.  That's the most credible reports.  They correctly said no.  They kept a player that makes the 2017 team better. 

I think he's being realistic about what Dozier is going to fetch and he sees the Twins turning down a really good prospect at a position of desperation. 

[DaveW]

That's fantasy ratings, lol.

still somewhat relevant. dozier is a significantly better player overall in all aspects.

[Oxtung]

 

The post I quoted seemed to pretty clearly say it didn't really matter if they trade Brian, and that he is happy he is still here. Maybe I read it wrong. So far they have added Castro.... So it's fixed? They signed no relief pitcher. No flyer starter, no OF. They traded no one. Basically, it was a Ryan off season. The best rebuilding teams trade their veterans. The others sit pat, because they aren't willing to pay the price of being bad. So far, what is better about this team? And if you say growth, then why fire Ryan?

Mike as a whole those are legitimate things to be frustrated about (or at least will be come opening day if they hold true still) but the reality is those are all just a new coat of paint on a house that needs to be gutted down to the studs and rebuilt. The Twins are going to sink or swim based on how the current crop of 20-25 year olds matures. While it is frustrating because we can't see the internal changes the Twins are making that is the reality.

 

Personally I think it's much more important that Falvey and Levine put a stamp on our minor league operations (including talent acquisition) than the on the field product today.

[drjim]

Alvarez and Buehler are the scheduled replacements for McCarthy and Kazmir. Deleon is blocked unless they want to eat the contracts of McCarthy($20 million left) and Kazmir($32 million left). Considering they're eating Carl Crawford's remaining $20 million this year, I can't see them doing that. I think they would sell Kazmir at 50 cents on the dollar and McCarthy at 70 cents on the dollar. Stewart and Wood are insurance until Buehler and Alvarez are ready. It's not an indictment on JDL. My biggest concern with Deleon is that he's HR prone.

My biggest concern is his durability. To me that is why a significant second piece had to be on the table. I do hope it leaks out.

[jimmer]

 

still somewhat relevant. dozier is a significantly better player overall in all aspects.

Fantasy baseball almost completely excludes the defensive aspect and focuses on mostly traditional stats.

[Vanimal46]

Well, we don't know the deal, but do people really believe they only offered De Leon and junk for Dozier, but De Leon for Forsythe? I don't....

 

If the Twins really turned down what Dave says, well, I give them an F.

 

I also do not believe the Dodgers' offer to the Rays is the same they offered to the Twins. We'll never know who they offered for Dozier, but the prospects involved including De Leon had to be top 10 org prospects. Pick your flavor for speculation (Alvarez, Calhoun, Stewart, etc.) one more should have been included for him. At the end of the day they just disagreed....

 

The Dodgers took the consolation prize. I don't see why they needed to offer the same deal to Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay*...

 

Either way, the lack of activity this offseason is frustrating to say the least.

 

*Copyright Denny Green

[beckmt]

This may turn out bad if De Leon is really good.  I doubt that if the Dodgers felt that way, they would have offered 2-3 A ball or lower prospects with very high upsides.  Had a feeling when the Rays cleared out Smyle that this was coming. 

Only time will tell and there is still spring training.  Friedman is known for winning trades and Falvey has a reputation of coming from an organization that seems to find low level pitching prospects.  Comfort zone was just not there.  Dodgers wanted Dozier at their price and Twins wanted more.  Let it play out, but all of us will be bummed if Twins pitching continues as bad as it is.

[DaveW]

Fantasy baseball almost completely excludes the defensive aspect and focuses on mostly traditional stats.

I realize that, but Dozier is also good defensively IMO

[drjim]

I wonder if the Dodgers had this deal in their back pocket for a while and just never budged with the Twins.

[Oxtung]

 

So do I.  That's how deep their farm is.

 

When a pitcher at AAA with a k/9 > 10 is valued lower than a player coming off TJ surgery and a total of 5IP that sets off alarm bells in my head. 

 

A Twins equivalent would be like saying the Twins Value Thorpe > Berrios.  If anyone said that you would think they're crazy.

[DaveW]

When a pitcher at AAA with a k/9 > 10 is valued lower than a player coming off TJ surgery and a total of 5IP that sets off alarm bells in my head.

 

A Twins equivalent would be like saying the Twins Value Thorpe > Berrios. If anyone said that you would think they're crazy.

Thorpe is nowhere near the prospect Alvarez is, there is a reason why the Dodgers sunk 35 mil into alvarez FWIW

[TyTY23]

 

still somewhat relevant. dozier is a significantly better player overall in all aspects.

Dozier is definitely better, but at what cost? The Dodgers just got a major upgrade at 2nd from what they had.  

[gunnarthor]

 

'The Twins will be better because they have a lot of young talent on the team.We apparently upgraded at catcher, which was demanded by everyone, and even bought into pitch framing.The Twins will be better because the pitchers aren't as bad as they were last year.'

Is any of that untrue? No.

 

Is that the same as saying "Our pitching is much better than it's looked?  These are good things to know.  We really didn't need to do anything at all."  No.

 

[jimmer]

 

Dozier is definitely better, but at what cost? The Dodgers just got a major upgrade at 2nd from what they had.  

Dodger FO made a good call  Good for them

[gunnarthor]

Off topic, but why is there never spaces behind my sentences?  It's really annoying. 

[Oxtung]

 

Thorpe is nowhere near the prospect Alvarez is, there is a reason why the Dodgers sunk 35 mil into alvarez FWIW

I was speaking of Buehler.