Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Riverbrian]

 

I just want to thank the Dodger fans who ioined us in these pages and gave us the viewpoint from a Dodger fan's perspective. Also the background, to some extent, of the Dodger FO.

 

I have no ill will regarding the trade not happening.

 

I hope the Dodgers have a great year. And, of course, that Dozier rakes.

 

Peace

 

I agree with all of this

 

Except for that Dodgers great year part

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I agree with all of this

 

Except for that Dodgers great year part

 

Brat.

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

I'll add that I don't know that the Dodgers "lowballed" the Twins, to the point where we should be offended or hostile. I think the Dodgers and Twins had discussions, and each side said what they were comfortable giving and receiving at this time, and there wasn't a match. There is nothing wrong with that.

 

Not to get into semantics, which is rarely productive, but I disagree. The fact that there wasn't a match has no real bearing on whether, objectively, the Dodgers offered less than fair value. The low-balling isn't some kind of slight to the Twins, but instead reflects the Dodgers' assessment of how much they were willing to give up.

 

There's nothing wrong with making below-market offers, particularly when you know there's limited interest among other parties. That's the whole reason I like eBay.

[DodgerFan1234]

I just want to thank the Dodger fans who ioined us in these pages and gave us the viewpoint from a Dodger

 

Peace

Now get out!

[D.C Twins]

First Time Poster, but long time reader (great read)

 

One point that I have not seen made previously is that Dozier should be motivated to produce at a high level entering his contract year(s). Given his characrer, I also see this whole ordeal providing (more) positive motivation for him.

 

And again, IMO, ...the Twins are under NO pressure to win big this year in the first year of this FO, while LA will be under SIGNIFICANT pressure to big win now). Even minor struggles by LA in the first half of the year will increase our leverage exponentially.

 

If Dozier is traded, Planco may fill in at second base, but who fills in during the post-win dance party (once a week or so...)

 

Finally.... my sources tell me that DaveW's next Dozier trade prediction will come within 72 hours (I enjoy his reports but couldn't resist)

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Now get out!

 

That made me LOL.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

eh? I have read just about all of the 626,832 posts in these 720 Dozier threads this past month, and I do not recall a Dozier-wilts-in-the-big-market angle ever being debated for more than a post or two, or even being mentioned at all, quite honestly. And anyone who has followed Dozier knows that he does not wilt in big moments. He hit a pinch-hit home run in the All Star Game, fer pete's sake

You're correct.  Rosenthal added the big market issue.

[jimmer]

 

You're correct.  Rosenthal added the big market issue.

traditional old school thinking.

[biggentleben]

Well, now there's discussion from the Braves guys that the Dodgers are inquiring on their 2B options. Interesting. Wonder if the Braves may have pushed the price on the Twins up enough to get the Dodgers out of bidding in order to get their own deal.

[DodgerFan1234]

That made me LOL.

Well, Twins fans thinking they were getting Alvarez on top of JDL gave me quite the chuckles, so least I could do was return the favor a little.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not to get into semantics, which is rarely productive, but I disagree. The fact that there wasn't a match has no real bearing on whether, objectively, the Dodgers offered less than fair value. The low-balling isn't some kind of slight to the Twins, but instead reflects the Dodgers' assessment of how much they were willing to give up.

 

There's nothing wrong with making below-market offers, particularly when you know there's limited interest among other parties. That's the whole reason I like eBay.

Was it really below market? Evidence suggests that De Leon was easily the best offer we could find for Dozier.

 

Without a hard deadline or a credible threat of Dozier permanently going off the market, the Dodgers would not have been prudent offering significantly more than that. Hard for me to consider it "lowballing" when their offer was only "low" compared to a theoretical market that clearly didn't exist in practice.

 

If there was any kind of real interest from other clubs, or July 31st was looming, or even if the Twins had a credible argument for pivoting toward going all-in this year, I could see their offer as lowballing. But none of those conditions were true.

 

And calling their offer a "complete joke" in your previous post seemed to give a negative connotation to "lowballing" that you are backtracking from here. By your latest, more neutral definition, I would guess most baseball trade discussions would feature "lowballing" because relatively few trades come out of them.

[jimmer]

'LOS ANGELES -- The Brian Dozier auction should come to a close this week, according to a baseball source, although even those involved aren't sure if the Minnesota Twins will actually trade the slugging second baseman.

 

New Twins management has shopped the 29-year-old for two months. The Dodgers believe they have presented the best offer, with pitching prospect Jose De Leon reportedly the centerpiece, but there are indications the Braves and Giants are also in pursuit of Dozier, who slugged 42 homers with 99 RBIs in 2016.

 

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/213242678/dodgers-wait-for-twins-brian-dozier-decision/

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

And calling their offer a "complete joke" in your previous post seemed to give a negative connotation to "lowballing" that you are backtracking from here. By your latest, more neutral definition, I would guess most baseball trade discussions would feature "lowballing" because relatively few trades come out of them.

 

You didn't pay attention to what I said. In response to the negatives cited by Rosenthal, I noted that those were already priced in - the Twins surely are not asking for a return based on, say, 6 WAR a year.

 

In other words, if Dozier didn't have some drawbacks, then it would just mean the asking price would move up accordingly, and De Leon + junk would be a 'complete joke.' 

 

My take was that the Dodgers offered about 60% of a fair return, with obviously a high variance since we don't know for a fact what the best offer was. That % is based off the difference I expect between Dozier's financial value to a generic team compared to the financial value of De Leon and a couple mediocre prospects to a generic team (making it team-specific is very complicated because WAR has to be adjusted for where the team is on the win curve).

 

It's also not correct that the best offer at this moment reflects Dozier's market value. Because there are so few MLB teams, and since the other teams face various circumstances and constraints, it can be hard to make a deal even when other teams place a reasonable value on Dozier (say, $50-55 million in surplus value). True, Dozier loses value as his remaining contract time erodes, but the mere fact the Twins haven't traded him indicates that the offer was not even close to equivalent value.

[Doomtints]

Forgetting about Dozier a minute, it really seems like there is a lot of bad blood going on between the Twins and the Dodgers. They are refusing to talk to one another. This is a terrible start for Falvey and Levine. They should have walked away three weeks ago if they weren't getting what they wanted. Let's hope they treat their players better than they treat their trading partners.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Forgetting about Dozier a minute, it really seems like there is a lot of bad blood going on between the Twins and the Dodgers. They are refusing to talk to one another. This is a terrible start for Falvey and Levine. They should have walked away three weeks ago if they weren't getting what they wanted. Let's hope they treat their players better than they treat their trading partners.

I don't know that there is any bad blood.  Their names just didn't match up whether it was for the second piece or the third piece.  It is odd that two ball clubs could agree on the headline pieces and not fill out the remaining pieces.  Thus, three weeks of negotiations.  Also, why I'm not 100% sure this deal is dead.

 

Alex Anthropolous was on MLB radio tonight and he feels the Dodgers have at least 20 guys in their system right now who they feel confident are future MLB players.  He was pretty vague in the interview but reminded people that the Dodgers were willing to move prospects to the A's and even though they want to keep as many of their prospects as possible they are more than willing to move pieces in a deal.  Second base will remain a priority for LA and assured Bowden that they've checked in on all rumored players whether it be 2B or OF, but wasn't able to discuss names.  

[CiabanItReal]

 

agreed, can't blame them for not selling at 50 cents on the dollar.....if that's the offer.

 

but, in the end, if they can't deal Dozier for pitching, it's going to be a longer rebuild. Frankly, nothing has gone REALLY right this whole rebuild so far. Berrios? Buxton? even Sano? ugh, not what they need so far. 

Were never going to know the offer, but that said, at a certain point they'll have to sell for 50 or 25 cents on the dollar, likely around the trade deadline in 2018 since he'll be 3 months from free agency.

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

If the Dodgers are gonna low-ball the crap out of the Twins, I don't care. That is not a reason to give in. The Twins are still a 100 loss potential without Dozier, and De Leon added in going into 2017. Nothing changes on either side.

 

Pay to play, or move on.

 

If they pay, Twins have some more prospects to help their rebuild for the future, and the Dodgers have an added weapon everybody says they are missing.

What if the dodgers aren't low balling the twins, but the twins are trying to rip off the dodgers, or are asking for to much in return.

Ultimately we have no idea whats been offered beyond JDL.

[CiabanItReal]

 

Or even as a 3b. There seems to he ways to make Dozier work on a team.

Because there are other 3b available in trades and on the free agent market that can't find homes, the market for 3b is just as bad.

I'm not sure if Friedman said those things or if that's just Rosenthal being a shill for them, publicly discounting Dozier to their benefit.. If Friedman did say that stuff I hope Falvey asked Friedman if he took a discount coming from Tampa. Being a small market and all.

Rosenthal has never been known to be a shill for anyone.

[CiabanItReal]

 

Good luck with Deleon lol

Personally I hope both DeLeon and dozier do well next season, rooting for players on different teams in different leagues to fail because a trade didn't happen is ridiculous. I mean if the dodgers did cave and offer the moon for Dozier, would you root against Dozier doing well so the twins would wind up with "the better end of the deal"

I'll add that I don't know that the Dodgers "lowballed" the Twins, to the point where we should be offended or hostile. I think the Dodgers and Twins had discussions, and each side said what they were comfortable giving and receiving at this time, and there wasn't a match. There is nothing wrong with that.

This X2095 or 105 pages whatever your preference.

[gunnarthor]

 

What if the dodgers aren't low balling the twins, but the twins are trying to rip off the dodgers, or are asking for to much in return.

Ultimately we have no idea whats been offered beyond JDL.

Well most reports indicate that the Dodgers were lowballing the Twins - see Steve Adams comments at mlbtraderumors, for example.

 

We don't know what the final offer was but it was very likely De Leon and junk (in some variation).  In any event, I'm glad it's dead. I didn't think we could get fair value for Dozier and would rather he stay here and watch the young players develop.

[AZTwin]

Personally I hope both DeLeon and dozier do well next season, rooting for players on different teams in different leagues to fail because a trade didn't happen is ridiculous. I mean if the dodgers did cave and offer the moon for Dozier, would you root against Dozier doing well so the twins would wind up with "the better end of the deal"

This X2095 or 105 pages whatever your preference.

It's not that I want him to fail I just don't think he makes majors by all star break. If you read this thread, I wasn't that high on him and didn't really want him to be the centerpiece in the package. I'm glad we are keeping Dozier. More I researched it I think he has a big year

[AZTwin]

Well most reports indicate that the Dodgers were lowballing the Twins - see Steve Adams comments at mlbtraderumors, for example.

 

We don't know what the final offer was but it was very likely De Leon and junk (in some variation). In any event, I'm glad it's dead. I didn't think we could get fair value for Dozier and would rather he stay here and watch the young players develop.

Agree. People can laugh all they want but it's important to have a veteran presence and role model for these prospects coming up. I'm glad the front office didn't underestimate that.

[CiabanItReal]

 

Agree. People can laugh all they want but it's important to have a veteran presence and role model for these prospects coming up. I'm glad the front office didn't underestimate that.

How hard is it to find players with "veteran presence"

[HitInAPinch]

 

Sounds like a lot want to pack up and forget about this possibility. 

Nothing's over until we decide it is! 

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! 

And it ain't over now.... 

Cause when the goin gets tough...... 

 

The tough gets goin! 

Now who's with me?! 

Thanks Bluto  !! http://a.abcnews.com/images/Entertainment/nc_john_belushi_ll_130725_16x9_608.jpg

[HitInAPinch]

 

Yep

 

I used to like Rosenthal

 

He's not getting a Xmas Card from the Riverbrian's next Easter

Or one of last year's Xmas Card:

 

"Hey Raphael, Feliz Navidad" 

[HitInAPinch]

 

He can't throw it that far? 

Yes, he can.  Eventually........   

[beckmt]

We will never know what the offer was or if when the Dodgers realized they were the only serious bidder they backed off of their original offer.  As for most of you, feeling was on national channels offer from the Dodgers was light.  

Unless the Dodgers are able to make a deal for another second baseman(and both the Tigers and the Rays want Bellinger), they may well come back towards the end of spring training.  

Bottom line Twins probably wanted an overpay and the Dodgers definitely wanted an underpay.  Result was no deal.  My guess is the Dodgers probably backed off on the offer or Twins front office wasted a lot of time on a deal that was not really that close.  

[markos]

 

You didn't pay attention to what I said. In response to the negatives cited by Rosenthal, I noted that those were already priced in - the Twins surely are not asking for a return based on, say, 6 WAR a year.

 

In other words, if Dozier didn't have some drawbacks, then it would just mean the asking price would move up accordingly, and De Leon + junk would be a 'complete joke.' 

 

My take was that the Dodgers offered about 60% of a fair return, with obviously a high variance since we don't know for a fact what the best offer was. That % is based off the difference I expect between Dozier's financial value to a generic team compared to the financial value of De Leon and a couple mediocre prospects to a generic team (making it team-specific is very complicated because WAR has to be adjusted for where the team is on the win curve).

 

It's also not correct that the best offer at this moment reflects Dozier's market value. Because there are so few MLB teams, and since the other teams face various circumstances and constraints, it can be hard to make a deal even when other teams place a reasonable value on Dozier (say, $50-55 million in surplus value). True, Dozier loses value as his remaining contract time erodes, but the mere fact the Twins haven't traded him indicates that the offer was not even close to equivalent value.

I agree with most of this analysis. I would also add that if we assume that Dodgers best offer was De Leon and some 'junk', recent trade history indicates that a similar package should be available at this trade deadline or next season. For example, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez both returned arguably better packages with 1.5 years of team control remaining. Howie Kendrick, Justin Upton, Ben Zobrist returned similar packages with just one year remaining. And while the Ben Zobrist and Yoenis Cespedes deadline deals don't quite match the quality of De Leon, their returns (Sean Manaea and Michael Fulmer respectively) were nothing to sneeze at. All in all, I think the Twins should have a fair amount of confidence that there will be equally good offers available during the next 18 months if they try to move Dozier again.

[Intramural Legend]

 

I agree with all of this

 

Except for that Dodgers great year part

 

 

I'm going to wish that the Dodgers fall a decent 2nd basemen short of a great season 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I agree with that analysis too. I just feel like throwing around the term "lowballed" adds to some of the unnecessary hostility toward the Dodgers around here. And on the flip side, Dave's rumor has been fueling some undeserved negativity toward the Twins, suggesting they walked away from De Leon + Alvarez.

 

Given the widely reported facts, I don't think either side was unreasonable. There just weren't enough factors to cause them to offer much more or accept much less at this time.