Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[AZTwin]

Who is they?

Here is a link

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

[gunnarthor]

 

Value is all relative. Dozier's value to the Twins means nothing. They will lose with him or without him. .    

This may or may not be true; however, the Twins should not simply accept pennies on the dollar for him just because they might not be in contention next season.

[CiabanItReal]

 

Here is a link

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

They're also predicting Hunter Renagroe to put up 2.4 war over the next 6 years, which seems....low.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Joe mays was about a 10.6 WAR player in 6 seasons with twins. They're talking about De Leon being possibly a 10.1 WAR in 6 seasons (if he doesn't bust)

That 10.1 WAR is an average projection over all possible outcomes, including busting.

 

Belliger is only projected at 10.2 by the same measure, and he's a "safe" position player.

 

Given the inherent bust risk for prospects, those are actually a couple pretty solid projections. They must have decent odds at posting 20+ WAR to average 10 even with bust risk.

[goulik]

This is the main snag in the situation. Folks talk about Dozier worth nothing on a losing team as we will lose either way... Plain stupid. The guy is a stud and everyone knows it. Just getting a couple of decent prospects would be going the wrong direction. The Twin's NEED to get potential difference makers and cannot settle for anything less.

 

Hot minor league prospects generally fizzle when they hit the show. That is why we NEED 3 in hopes one actually is a difference maker. If not pass..... Keep Dozier and keep working on improving with him as a centerpiece.

Exactly. Why Is it not possible that he gets re-signed after the two years and becomes a life long Twin? Morneau, Hunter, Puckett, Killebrew, Oliva...none of them were FROM Minnesota! If we cannot get enough value from a trade, the value of a player that draws people to the stadium will outweigh a bad trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Exactly. Why Is it not possible that he gets re-signed after the two years and becomes a life long Twin? Morneau, Hunter, Puckett, Killebrew, Oliva...none of them were FROM Minnesota! If we cannot get enough value from a trade, the value of a player that draws people to the stadium will outweigh a bad trade.

Those guys were generally signed/extended for big money when the Twins were competitive. I don't think any of them were approaching FA in team circumstances like Dozier's.

 

I think it was addressed earlier too, but Dozier and most individual players likely provide very little in terms of attendance or ratings beyond what they contribute to the team's overall record.

[Strato Guy]

Good article to check out:  http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/moving-dozier-needs-to-include-creativity-r5274

[AZTwin]

That 10.1 WAR is an average projection over all possible outcomes, including busting.

 

Belliger is only projected at 10.2 by the same measure, and he's a "safe" position player.

 

Given the inherent bust risk for prospects, those are actually a couple pretty solid projections. They must have decent odds at posting 20+ WAR to average 10 even with bust risk.

Exactly. The bust risk is so much for prospects that he is on average going to be joe mays. Even the write up says #3 or #4 starter. His most likely scenario is becoming a 4-7 WAR player. People act like we're passing up a 20 WAR player here... that's not the case at all. Does he have a shot to do that? Sure but I also have a shot at the lottery. On average he is less than Joe Mays to the twins. Would you accept Joe Mays for Brian Dozier?

[Vanimal46]

Exactly. Why Is it not possible that he gets re-signed after the two years and becomes a life long Twin? Morneau, Hunter, Puckett, Killebrew, Oliva...none of them were FROM Minnesota! If we cannot get enough value from a trade, the value of a player that draws people to the stadium will outweigh a bad trade.

Giving a 31/32 year old player 5 years 100+ million isn't something we've ever seen in Minnesota... I'm skeptical to say the least the Pohlad's will ever allow this.

[drjim]

 

Giving a 31/32 year old player 5 years 100+ million isn't something we've ever seen in Minnesota... I'm skeptical to say the least the Pohlad's will ever allow this.

 

Getting burned so bad by Mauer certainly won't make them enthusiastic to repeat the move.

[jimmer]

 

Getting burned so bad by Mauer's concusssion certainly won't make them enthusiastic to repeat the move.

FTFY

[Otto von Ballpark]

Actually if the Twins had traded a Dozier type with 2 years control left after 1998 for Joe Mays, it could have worked out pretty well. Mays had 11.9 bWAR over the next 3 years at league minimum salary, with his biggest year in 2001 as we returned to relevance, and even though he was hurt by injuries, he managed to toss a gem in the 2002 playoffs. The problem with Mays was the extension, when judging by the peripherals, we probably should have been looking to flip him.

 

And of course, we wouldn't be trading for Joe Mays here -- just a prospect with a median projection like Joe Mays WAR. With a team unlikely to contend in the immediate future, it might be worth the chance that he could be better than that.

 

Of course, I don't think anyone is advocating a one-for-one trade either. That report seemed to be based on the Dodger not including Alvarez or Bellinger with De Leon, but no one has officially reported on the possibility of De Leon plus Stewart, Calhoun, etc.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Long story short: as much as people pick on De Leon here, the Twins are unlikely to get a single prospect offered for Dozier that is as good as De Leon.

 

Thus, any package built around De Leon is probably the best package we will see too, even if it doesn't including Alvarez or Bellinger.

 

Will be very interesting to see if LEN3 does any follow-up reporting on this -- his "one-for-one" thing didn't really address that possibility at all.

[DaveW]

The Len3 stuff and the Doogie stuff honestly came off as 100% spin to me so that when the trade does go down (for JDL+Alv etc) it will make the Twins look like a really great FO (smart move tbh), my source is adamant that both Alvarez and JDL are still in the deal and it's still the matter of the third player.

No team would ever trade a 6 WAR player like Dozier for a guy like JDL straight up, especially one on a team friendly 2 year deal. Preposterous!

[CiabanItReal]

 

Exactly. The bust risk is so much for prospects that he is on average going to be joe mays. Even the write up says #3 or #4 starter. His most likely scenario is becoming a 4-7 WAR player. People act like we're passing up a 20 WAR player here... that's not the case at all. Does he have a shot to do that? Sure but I also have a shot at the lottery. On average he is less than Joe Mays to the twins. Would you accept Joe Mays for Brian Dozier?

Actually according to the write up your referencing, he's most likely to be a 10 war player since that's the average of likelihoods (far from scientific) I don't know why, but you keep taking the most extreme conservative valuation of DeLeon as gospel, and ignore any valuation that suggests otherwise.

 

Yeah but which is more likely him being a 20 WAR player over 6 years or you winning the lottery?

 

That sort of depends on what Joe Mays were talking about, like Joe Mays circa today. No, I wouldn't take Willie Mays for Dozier right now.

But Joe Maye circa 2001 when he led the league in ERA+ made the All-Star team and produced a 6.7 rWAR, yeah probably.

[Twins33]

No team would ever trade a 6 WAR player like Dozier for a guy like JDL straight up, especially one on a team friendly 2 year deal. Preposterous!

i don't think we should be calling a player a "six WAR player" when they've only done six WAR for one season.

 

It makes a lot more sense to call him a 4-5 WAR player as that's usually what he is around. I doubt anyone is thinking he's a 6 WAR player every year for the next two years. If it happens, it happens....but it hasn't happened consistently and no one should be counting on it happening again.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

My source ( a guy on twitter ) says 99% sure it gets done by end of week

[drjim]

Long story short: as much as people pick on De Leon here, the Twins are unlikely to get a single prospect offered for Dozier that is as good as De Leon.

 

Thus, any package built around De Leon is probably the best package we will see too, even if it doesn't including Alvarez or Bellinger.

 

Will be very interesting to see if LEN3 does any follow-up reporting on this -- his "one-for-one" thing didn't really address that possibility at all.

 

I know a lot has been said in all these points, but I do think a strong majority of posters (save prospect nihilists) would accept De Leon as the centerpiece. The question is what is coming with him. If it is very little I think the breaking down of De Leon has been justified. If Dave's source is right, most will be satisfied.

[CiabanItReal]

For all the moaning about the market for Dozier, the twins in a sense got lucky, if only one team was going to be interested in Dozier, which team would you rather have interested in him than a team like the dodgers considering the Twins need for pitching and the dodgers pitching depth. And the fact that Kinslers partial no trade happens to include the team that's most interested in dozier.

 

And for all the talk about Dozier being worth more at the deadline, even if he doesn't slump I don't know if that's true.

Even if you assume some teams will have a 2B under produce or get hurt, it's not as though we get to chose those teams.

What if those teams are the Angels, Orioles, and Giants. What package is this team going to get that's better than one headlined by Deleon

 

Another thing to consider is that the twins are the market for 2nd basemnen, that might not be true at the deadline, since some teams that are competitors are going to inevitably suck. Even if there are teams with good minor league systems that need a 2nd basemen at the deadline, what if Detroit finally makes Kinsler available(he only has a partial no trade clause), or the Rays make Logan Forsythe available or the padres make Yangvaris Solarte available. Now the twins aren't the only game in town.

 

While no one is advocating a 1:1 swap, or taking pennies on the dollar, there is going to come a point where the twins can't just walk away from the best offer available.

 

There are realistically 4 chances to trade Dozier. This winter, this coming summer, next winter or the following summer, after that he can be a free agent, and the team gets nothing. So while the team can insist other teams blink first now, that's not a negotiation tactic that will hold forever.

[AZTwin]

Actually according to the write up your referencing, he's most likely to be a 10 war player since that's the average of likelihoods (far from scientific) I don't know why, but you keep taking the most extreme conservative valuation of DeLeon as gospel, and ignore any valuation that suggests otherwise.

 

Yeah but which is more likely him being a 20 WAR player over 6 years or you winning the lottery?

 

That sort of depends on what Joe Mays were talking about, like Joe Mays circa today. No, I wouldn't take Willie Mays for Dozier right now.

But Joe Maye circa 2001 when he led the league in ERA+ made the All-Star team and produced a 6.7 rWAR, yeah probably.

You can't just pick and chose years lol. I'm saying the 6 years of Joe Mays in twins uniform. That includes the 1 all star years as well as the bad years. That's the production on average we'd get from Deleon (it's actually slightly less). Of course we also have the risk that he is better and the risk that he busts and is worse. On average though, slightly less than Joe Mays. Seems like we would need a few of those Joe Mays types to be able to accept that risk for a player like dozier

[gocgo]

I think this thread needs to take a turn.  What if Dozier isn't traded?

 

Dozier at 2nd, Polanco at SS, Sano at 3B, Mauer at 1B, Keppleroni in RF, Buck in CF, Rosario in LF, Castro behind the dish, DH...?  A couple of options there...none of them great.

 

Pitching...ugh.

 

Erv followed by a bunch of mush and question marks.

 

Bullpen...a couple of decent options and a whole lot of question marks.

 

That sounds like about 88 losses to me.  It's depressing to consider, but I'm afraid it might happen.

[CiabanItReal]

 

You can't just pick and chose years lol. I'm saying the 6 years of Joe Mays in twins uniform. That includes the 1 all star years as well as the bad years. That's the production on average we'd get from Deleon (it's actually slightly less). Of course we also have the risk that he is better and the risk that he busts and is worse. On average though, slightly less than Joe Mays. Seems like we would need a few of those Joe Mays types to be able to accept that risk for a player like dozier

Well given the power of hindsight we know exactly every trade a team should or shouldn't take. That not really fair, at the time in 2001 yeah, you probably do that trade, but with the all seeing magic crystal ball of hindsight, probably not.

Then again, if we know for a fact that JDL will put up 10 war over 6 years, maybe I would trade Dozier for him, since 10 war over 2 years is likely the best case scenario for Dozier anyway. He's most likely a 7-8 war player the next two years. Which is good, but isn't worth as much in this market when 11 2nd basemen produced 4 war seasons last year.

Dozier is a player who even with his improving slugging percentage has had a wildly fluctuating OBP

2013: .312obp

2014: .345obp

2015: .309obp

2016: .340obp

I have no idea what he'll do next year, though the scary thing is that there was no difference in his K% or BB% from 2015-2016 despite the 30 point difference in OBP.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

because it's all spin.

The idea that the Twins suddenly wouldn't be open to trade Dozier after some random "deadline " is preposterous.

It's just spin coming from the Twins to try to get a second team to make a legit offer

Not necessarily just spin. The Twins never said they would not consider an offer later. 

 

I believe this is just an effort to gauge interest in Dozier, to help decide in which direction they can or should move. For example, moving on from a Dozier trade might mean signing some starting pitchers, ones that otherwise you could acquire via trade. they just want to get this off the table for now - one way or another.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

While no one is advocating a 1:1 swap, or taking pennies on the dollar, there is going to come a point where the twins can't just walk away from the best offer available.

 

Yes they can walk away, if they do not get a decent offer. I've been advocating for two MLB-ready or near-ready pitchers and 1-2 prospects. I think that's fair. I'd take De Leon, Stewart (the MLB-ready pitchers) and Alvarez, who won't be there for a while. I don't value players very highly unless they've been at AA or higher. 

 

I think that's a fair trade.

 

[AZTwin]

Yes they can walk away, if they do not get a decent offer. I've been advocating for two MLB-ready or near-ready pitchers and 1-2 prospects. I think that's fair. I'd take De Leon, Stewart (the MLB-ready pitchers) and Alvarez, who won't be there for a while. I don't value players very highly unless they've been at AA or higher.

 

I think that's a fair trade.

Yeah thats probably about the right price for a fair trade on both sides.

[Strato Guy]

 

Yes they can walk away, if they do not get a decent offer. I've been advocating for two MLB-ready or near-ready pitchers and 1-2 prospects. I think that's fair. I'd take De Leon, Stewart (the MLB-ready pitchers) and Alvarez, who won't be there for a while. I don't value players very highly unless they've been at AA or higher. 

 

I think that's a fair trade.

I have a feeling that is a little more than the Dodgers are willing to give up. It doesn't hurt to ask for that, but if the Twins are going to deal now, they may have to settle for a little less than that. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

My source ( a guy on twitter ) says 99% sure it gets done by end of week

 

aka, DaveW

 

The Len3 stuff and the Doogie stuff honestly came off as 100% spin to me so that when the trade does go down (for JDL+Alv etc) it will make the Twins look like a really great FO (smart move tbh), my source is adamant that both Alvarez and JDL are still in the deal and it's still the matter of the third player.

No team would ever trade a 6 WAR player like Dozier for a guy like JDL straight up, especially one on a team friendly 2 year deal. Preposterous!

 

DaveW, as much as I want to believe you and your source, why would BOTH sides keep the involvement of Alvarez in the offer(s) quiet? I can see why the Twins might, given that as you say, it would make them look good and exceed expectations when he is included, and in case the deal does not go through, it would protect them from criticism for not accepting such a good deal.  But why would the Dodgers want to keep his involvement quiet? Wouldn't making an offer of JDL + Alvarez public put more public pressure on the Twins?

[CiabanItReal]

 

Yes they can walk away, if they do not get a decent offer. I've been advocating for two MLB-ready or near-ready pitchers and 1-2 prospects. I think that's fair. I'd take De Leon, Stewart (the MLB-ready pitchers) and Alvarez, who won't be there for a while. I don't value players very highly unless they've been at AA or higher. 

 

I think that's a fair trade.

My point is that they can't do that forever, they can do that this winter, and maybe next summer. But if he's still on the team come the winter of 2017, can they still say "if we don't get what we want will hold on to him" can they do that in the summer of 2018 when he's staring down free agency? Say "we'd rather get nothing than a package we think is sub-par".

[AZTwin]

A team that wants to win will give a fair package. No need to sell.

[CiabanItReal]

 

aka, DaveW

 

 

DaveW, as much as I want to believe you and your source, why would BOTH sides keep the involvement of Alvarez in the offer(s) quiet? I can see why the Twins might, given that as you say, it would make them look good and exceed expectations when he is included, and in case the deal does not go through, it would protect them from criticism for not accepting such a good deal.  But why would the Dodgers want to keep his involvement quiet? Wouldn't making an offer of JDL + Alvarez public put more public pressure on the Twins?

Yeah I thought that too, that this could just be posturing by the twins.

Not necessarily just spin. The Twins never said they would not consider an offer later. 

 

I believe this is just an effort to gauge interest in Dozier, to help decide in which direction they can or should move. For example, moving on from a Dozier trade might mean signing some starting pitchers, ones that otherwise you could acquire via trade. they just want to get this off the table for now - one way or another.

I think this is true for both sides, the dodgers can't sit around and play a game of chicken forever, even though some have suggested that "it would serve them right" to have to go into next year with Utley at 2nd base, they can't sit around forever and wait on the twins, or Utley may sign elsewhere, and then they'll have nothing.

Also, what starting pitchers are they going to sign? Have you seen what's left on this market?