Article: Twins, Please Don't Trade Brian Dozier!

[twins4121]

With the offseason in full swing, the refueling begins on Minnesota Twins fans hope-tanks. The only notable decision thus far this offseason is the abandonment of mediocrity at third base with Trevor Plouffe. They’ve also signed a catcher that can’t hit, but as a fan what are you going to do, we’ve experienced worse front office decisions, right?

 

One rumor that has been swirling for quite some time is the idea of the Twins parting ways with the ‘All Time Major League Leader in Home Runs at 2nd base in a Single season (42)’.

 

Let me repeat that… ‘All Time Major League Leader in Home Runs at 2nd base in a Single Season.’

 

One more time? That’s alright, I think you get the point.

 

The season Brian Dozier put together last season is simply remarkable. After the awful April and May Brian had, he ended up with the best power hitting season ever seen by a second baseman. What could he have done with a productive April and May? As a Twins fan, I want to find out and I want to find out with him still in a Twins uniform. The title Brian Dozier carries with him is something Twins fans can be extremely proud of, and taking him away from us would be a gigantic mistake.

 

Dozier’s Contract

 

Brian Dozier made $3 Million last year. As a GM, that is an unbelievable discount from a player that puts up the numbers he did, not to mention Brian is still signed on that contract for two more years. To put that in perspective, Joe Mauer made $23 million last year and will through 2019. This, aside from horrible starting pitching, is the Twins biggest problem. Joe Mauer is good, but as one of the least productive starting first baseman in the league, he’s not even worth $5 million. What could the Twins attract in free agency with an extra $18-20 million in free agency with a restructured Mauer contract? Well, I think it’s time the Twins find out. Joe has given all Twins fans a plethora of great memories, but he’s not the all star catcher he once was.He never will be again, and will also never be a productive first baseman in comparison with league averages at the position.

 

Dozier’s Presence

 

Let’s put the numbers aside. If you have ever heard Brian Dozier speak in interviews or in person, this man is a very humble and respectable person. A leader. A man that I want my kids to be like. Brian Dozier encompasses everything our team should strive to be, and getting rid of him for a couple of unproven prospects with huge egos and nothing proven is a horrible move.

 

To the Twins Front Office,

 

Please don’t trade Brian Dozier.

 

Respectfully,

 

Twins Fans

 

www.zedleakz.com

[Vanimal46]

Sorry, couldn't disagree more with this take. Everything you've pointed it as exactly why he's valuable and should be traded now. He was awful the first 2 months of 2016. Along with being awful the last 3 months in 2015. He's far too inconsistent to be a reliable force in the lineup. Luckily he went on a historic tear at the plate to recoup his value. 

If on the odd chance he's not traded, is there any expectation he will resign with the Twins in 2 years? Will the Twins be able to afford a 31 year old 2B $18-20 million a season? Both sound very unlikely. 

[Doomtints]

There is an article on mlb.com about how the new leadership finally gave Dozier a call last week to talk to him for the first time.  

 

The conversation was that, yes, they intend to trade him.  

 

Note that Dozier is at the winter meetings now, likely so that potential trade targets can meet with him personally.  

[Thrylos]

Twins please do not trade Brian Dozier at his peak, but let him play for two rebuilding teams, likely cooling off again, blocking prospects, and then let him go away without any return.  

 

I see how much sense that makes... 

[twins4121]

 

Sorry, couldn't disagree more with this take. Everything you've pointed it as exactly why he's valuable and should be traded now. He was awful the first 2 months of 2016. Along with being awful the last 3 months in 2015. He's far too inconsistent to be a reliable force in the lineup. Luckily he went on a historic tear at the plate to recoup his value. 

If on the odd chance he's not traded, is there any expectation he will resign with the Twins in 2 years? Will the Twins be able to afford a 31 year old 2B $18-20 million a season? Both sound very unlikely. 

 

 

All great points. However, don't you agree that for Brian Dozier's salary and production he is a steal? Where else are we going to find those numbers at 2nd base for that price? I'd take an inconsistent Dozier over a mediocre Logan Forsythe (similar salary) any day.

[Vanimal46]

 

All great points. However, don't you agree that for Brian Dozier's salary and production he is a steal? Where else are we going to find those numbers at 2nd base for that price? I'd take an inconsistent Dozier over a mediocre Logan Forsythe (similar salary) any day.

At this point, yes. Which is why he's about to fetch a solid return of players right now. The potential trade return will decrease the longer he remains on the Twins. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

All great points. However, don't you agree that for Brian Dozier's salary and production he is a steal? Where else are we going to find those numbers at 2nd base for that price? I'd take an inconsistent Dozier over a mediocre Logan Forsythe (similar salary) any day.

 

Let's say you keep Dozier (which I can understand why you want it....)....how do the Twins get better in the next 2 years while he's here?

[USAFChief]

 

Let's say you keep Dozier (which I can understand why you want it....)....how do the Twins get better in the next 2 years while he's here?

Hopefully the new PBO and GM have a plan to do just that.  

 

I can understand the argument trading Dozier should be a big part of their initial plan.  However, I don't think it's unreasonable to think they might have other plans.  Or for that matter, to hope they have other plans if they find out they can't get a reasonable return for Dozier.

 

Keeping a very productive everyday player at an up-the-middle position shouldn't automatically be viewed as a failure, IMO.

 

 

[twins4121]

 

Let's say you keep Dozier (which I can understand why you want it....)....how do the Twins get better in the next 2 years while he's here?

 

We get rid of Mauer and use his salary to find a legitimate Ace and/or First baseman that can produce at the position. You combine that with the young talent we already have and will be much better than we are. Buxton and Sano will produce. At least they have to or anything we do at this point is pointless.

[Blake]

 

Hopefully the new PBO and GM have a plan to do just that.  

 

I can understand the argument trading Dozier should be a big part of their initial plan.  However, I don't think it's unreasonable to think they might have other plans.  Or for that matter, to hope they have other plans if they find out they can't get a reasonable return for Dozier.

 

Keeping a very productive everyday player at an up-the-middle position shouldn't automatically be viewed as a failure, IMO.

I'm sort of in the "A Dozier trade should be one that knocks our eyes out" rather than one that "does a good job of putting some pieces in place."

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

We get rid of Mauer and use his salary to find a legitimate Ace and/or First baseman that can produce at the position. 

 

How do you do that?  Magic?  Full no-trade clause and, even if he allows a trade, the Twins will have to pay for most of his contract

[Doomtints]

 

We get rid of Mauer and use his salary to find a legitimate Ace and/or First baseman that can produce at the position. You combine that with the young talent we already have and will be much better than we are. Buxton and Sano will produce. At least they have to or anything we do at this point is pointless.

 

If the Twins get rid of Mauer, it would have to be by releasing him outright.  This means they could not use his salary for other things.  

 

Also, I don't think money is an issue for the team.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Hopefully the new PBO and GM have a plan to do just that.  

 

I can understand the argument trading Dozier should be a big part of their initial plan.  However, I don't think it's unreasonable to think they might have other plans.  Or for that matter, to hope they have other plans if they find out they can't get a reasonable return for Dozier.

 

Keeping a very productive everyday player at an up-the-middle position shouldn't automatically be viewed as a failure, IMO.

 

Hence my question.....how do you go from the worst run prevention team in baseball, and an ok offensive team, to very good in two years, if you can't sign a FA and you don't trade your best players....

[Mike Sixel]

 

We get rid of Mauer and use his salary to find a legitimate Ace and/or First baseman that can produce at the position. You combine that with the young talent we already have and will be much better than we are. Buxton and Sano will produce. At least they have to or anything we do at this point is pointless.

 

Let's say you magically get rid of Mauer, what ace do you get, and how?

 

Because, there are no aces in FA this year....there aren't even Kyle Gibson's maybe.

[laloesch]

Sorry, i 100% disagree with this thread.  This team's starting pitching IS SO BAD top to bottom and down on the farm system (with the exception of a few prospects) that I think the front office HAS to get maximum value for Brian Dozier while it still can in order to start turning this thing around.  

 

Let me be clear, I like having Brian Dozier on this team.  I think he's a good guy and a good player.  However, he's obviously in the midst of a career season and very unlikely to repeat these numbers again (especially the home runs and BA). 

 

SELL HIGH.  If the Twins weren't so bad I would think twice, but given how desperate this team is for quality major league level pitching and the fact that Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc. are already here and moving towards arbitration years, I fear this team will mirror the Rangers of the early 2000's (All hitting no pitching).  By the time they started getting major league quality starters many of their good hitters had left.

 

Dozier is one avenue that will fetch them good pitching prospects.  I think they have to trade him to be perfectly honest. 

[ashbury]

To the Twins Front Office,

 

Please trade Brian Dozier for good controllable starting pitching

 

Respectfully,

 

Other Twins Fans

[nicksaviking]

For what it's worth, I wholly appreciate the OP's passion even while I desperately want Dozier traded in an attempt to finally get the pitching/prospects this team needs to get back on track.

[Brandon Warne]

 

All great points. However, don't you agree that for Brian Dozier's salary and production he is a steal? Where else are we going to find those numbers at 2nd base for that price? I'd take an inconsistent Dozier over a mediocre Logan Forsythe (similar salary) any day.

 

Logan Forsythe is basically who Brian Dozier was before this blow-up.

 

And the fact of the matter is, you don't look to replace the production. You move a new player to the spot and see what happens. "Replace the production" is a hot air phrase that doesn't mean anything. 

[TheLeviathan]

Ideally, would I like to keep Dozier?  Sure.

 

If there was a way to plant a pitching tree in target field and sit back and reap the rewards.

 

Short of that, I don't see how this team gets better pitching the ball in the next 1-3 years without trading Santana and Dozier.  We need to multiply our good assets and shift the asset Dozier represents to someone who pitches the baseball.

 

I appreciate your position, but the sheer odds of building a winner around Dozier are basically non-existent.  Keeping him is spinning your wheels and hoping that he doesn't go back to being a pumpkin before you scrounge up enough pitching help.  

 

Play the odds.  Deal the man.

[mazeville]

 

 

It's this simple: The Twins lost 103 games with Brian Dozier and his 40-plus homers and "leadership." He is with the Twins for two more years. The Twins are very unlikely to improve by 25 wins it will take to make the playoffs in that time, and certainly without trading an asset that can bring back multiple assets in return.

 

There aren't enough strong players in free agency to get the Twins over the hump (and they wouldn't come here, anyway). Therefore, the Twins have to trade an asset to get something back. They need pitching, badly, and have guys who can step in at second. Dozier's value on the market will never be higher. Therefore, they have to trade him. Or at least they should explore the idea and see what kind of return he can fetch.

 

Obviously, if nobody wants him, keep him. But if they're going to improve, it's imperative to trade Dozier for multiple assets who can help the team win for years ...

[Doomtints]

 

Logan Forsythe is basically who Brian Dozier was before this blow-up.

 

And the fact of the matter is, you don't look to replace the production. You move a new player to the spot and see what happens. "Replace the production" is a hot air phrase that doesn't mean anything. 

 

You can replace his production, you just need to think of it as zero sum.  Something like this:

 

- Dozier 4 WAR (This is just to make it easy).

- Current Twins starter W is worth 1 WAR

 

Trade Dozier for:

 

- Player X (2 WAR) - replaces player W

- Prospect Y (projection 2 WAR)

Displaced Player W is then flipped for another 1 WAR prospect at a position of need.  

 

5 WAR = 5 WAR

But this is just for one season.  Front offices will be looking at career potential, not 1 year, unless they are making a trade at the midseason trade deadline.  

 

[Loosey]

If the Twins had improved on their 2015 season in 2016 and were knocking on the door to the playoffs or snuck in last year as a wild card, then your points are all valid.

 

HOWEVER,

 

The Twins were the worst team in baseball.  Their pitching was atocious and their defense was just as bad.  This team is not going to be contending soon.  The way to get them to be a playoff team is to improve the areas of weakness by trading from an area of strength.  Brian Dozier is a top tier 2nd baseman.  One that could help the Twins add needed pieces to get to where they want to be, which is hopefully World Series Champions.  Look how much 42 home runs helped the team win last year. . . . That was likely Dozier's peak.  Now the Twins will try to sell that peak  in order to get younger players who will gradually start to reach their peaks along with other players we are waiting on.

 

50 Homerun Brian Dozier does not help this team by being a Twin.  He helps the team by becoming an asset that is used to acquire more talent.  And don't feel too sorry for Brian Dozier either.  He will likely end up in a warm climate playing on a winning baseball team.  Everyone's happy!  

 

 

[Oxtung]

Several of you have no made statements similar to "His value will never be higher than it is now."  Is that really true?  There are scenarios where that isn't.  For the sake of argument let's say the Twins keep him and he puts up an OPS of .900 next season, surely his value will have risen after two seasons of superstar level work, right?  Perhaps that isn't the most likely outcome but it also isn't unbelievable either.

 

So my question to the brilliant minds here at TD, what kind of numbers would Dozier have to put up next year to actually increase his value at the trade deadline?  By next offseason?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

It's this simple: The Twins lost 103 games with Brian Dozier and his 40-plus homers and "leadership." He is with the Twins for two more years. The Twins are very unlikely to improve by 25 wins it will take to make the playoffs in that time, and certainly without trading an asset that can bring back multiple assets in return.

 

There aren't enough strong players in free agency to get the Twins over the hump (and they wouldn't come here, anyway). Therefore, the Twins have to trade an asset to get something back. They need pitching, badly, and have guys who can step in at second. Dozier's value on the market will never be higher. Therefore, they have to trade him. Or at least they should explore the idea and see what kind of return he can fetch.

 

Obviously, if nobody wants him, keep him. But if they're going to improve, it's imperative to trade Dozier for multiple assets who can help the team win for years ...

agreed. If Dozier were that good and more valuable to this team than anything they could possibly get in a trade, then don't trade him. However, this team has lots of ways to score and few ways to stop opposition from scoring. Free agency won't cut it. Patience won't cut it. Who to trade if not Dozier?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Several of you have no made statements similar to "His value will never be higher than it is now."  Is that really true?  There are scenarios where that isn't.  For the sake of argument let's say the Twins keep him and he puts up an OPS of .900 next season, surely his value will have risen after two seasons of superstar level work, right?  Perhaps that isn't the most likely outcome but it also isn't unbelievable either.

 

So my question to the brilliant minds here at TD, what kind of numbers would Dozier have to put up next year to actually increase his value at the trade deadline?  By next offseason?

 

He'll only have 1 year of control then, and he'll be a year older, it is about those things also.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Several of you have no made statements similar to "His value will never be higher than it is now."  Is that really true?  There are scenarios where that isn't.  For the sake of argument let's say the Twins keep him and he puts up an OPS of .900 next season, surely his value will have risen after two seasons of superstar level work, right?  Perhaps that isn't the most likely outcome but it also isn't unbelievable either.

 

So my question to the brilliant minds here at TD, what kind of numbers would Dozier have to put up next year to actually increase his value at the trade deadline?  By next offseason?

 

He'd have to put up basically the same numbers and agree to an extension at the same price for another year. 

 

So...basically impossible.

[Oxtung]

 

He'll only have 1 year of control then, and he'll be a year older, it is about those things also.

Absolutely right.  So how does that affect things Mike?  Is that extra year of control where the bulk of his value lies?

 

Truely I don't know the answer to this and am looking to build some kind of concensus here.  If we can determine what his production would need to be to increase his value in the future we can propose the odds of that actually happening and ultimately make a better determination about whether he should be traded now or not.

[Oxtung]

 

He'd have to put up basically the same numbers and agree to an extension at the same price for another year. 

 

So...basically impossible.

You think his consistency is less important to teams than the extra year of cheap control and age?

[BK432]

We never sell high. Never. We ALWAYS wait until a player slides backward before selling low or letting him walk.

 

This needs to change now. It's awesome that Brian Dozier is a guy we want our kids to be like, but that should literally factor 0% into a decision as to whether to trade.

 

This is the hand we've been dealt. Two more controllable, cheap years on Dozier. Career year in 2016. Difficult to see us competing in the next two years. Yes, if any of these factors were somewhat changed, maybe, MAYBE, you lean more toward keeping him.

 

But this is a no-brainer. An absolute no-brainer. Trade the man.

 

Oh, and you can't trade or cut Joe Mauer and use the money elsewhere. Doesn't work that way. And you can't 'restructure' a contract. This is baseball, not football. And he's signed through 2018, not 2019.

 

As was earlier said, appreciate the passion, but disagree wholeheartedly.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You think his consistency is less important to teams than the extra year of cheap control and age?

 

Yes, two years of greatness >>>>>> 1 year of greatness. Way more important.