Article: Twins, Please Don't Trade Brian Dozier!

[kellyvance]

 

Sorry, couldn't disagree more with this take. Everything you've pointed it as exactly why he's valuable and should be traded now. He was awful the first 2 months of 2016. Along with being awful the last 3 months in 2015. He's far too inconsistent to be a reliable force in the lineup. Luckily he went on a historic tear at the plate to recoup his value. 

If on the odd chance he's not traded, is there any expectation he will resign with the Twins in 2 years? Will the Twins be able to afford a 31 year old 2B $18-20 million a season? Both sound very unlikely. 

Awful?  Awful?  No, reasonable fair minded person could ever describe a guy who had the most home runs as a second baseman EVER as awful..  That is just ridiculous. The season is 162 games and every player has peaks and valleys. But  "AWFUL"  as a description of the best season for homers by a second baseman  EVER?  Really? PULLLEEEESSSE WISE UP.  

[kellyvance]

 

Ideally, would I like to keep Dozier?  Sure.

 

If there was a way to plant a pitching tree in target field and sit back and reap the rewards.

 

Short of that, I don't see how this team gets better pitching the ball in the next 1-3 years without trading Santana and Dozier.  We need to multiply our good assets and shift the asset Dozier represents to someone who pitches the baseball.

 

I appreciate your position, but the sheer odds of building a winner around Dozier are basically non-existent.  Keeping him is spinning your wheels and hoping that he doesn't go back to being a pumpkin before you scrounge up enough pitching help.  

 

Play the odds.  Deal the man.

So you get better at pitching by trading your best pitcher?  Brilliant.  Lets trade all our good players for unproven prospects. That way we can clean up in Vegas by betting against the Twins every game. 

[jimmer]

 

 That way we can clean up in Vegas by betting against the Twins every game. 

smart money is to do that anyway.

[jimmer]

 

So you get better at pitching by trading your best pitcher?  Brilliant.  Lets trade all our good players for unproven prospects. That way we can clean up in Vegas by betting against the Twins every game. 

I suppose it makes more sense to ride out Santana when we stink.

 

Instead of taking advantage of the market and selling high, better to wait till he gets hurt or starts declining or his contract runs out, and we get nothing to help us when we hopefully have a chance to be contenders. Sounds like a much better idea.

[kellyvance]

So you get better by trading a proven All Star caliber player who is a rare standout offensively and decent defensively because you have a decent replacement with less than a year of major leageu experience?  Yeah right.

Doze has gotten better every year .... but some of you say he can't get better than this.  Really?  That whole idea is based on speculation and change for changes sake.   And prospects are just guesses.  No guarantee that a prospect will ever pan out.  Look what we got for Span and Revere.... Doze is the real deal.  You can build a team around guys like that. We need pitching? Sure. But trading our best offensive performer better get yo a sure thing SP and not a basket of prospects who may never pan out.  If you trade a guy who is worth a few runs every week all by himself, you will need even more pitching than you think. Doze is worth a run every so often all by himself.

 

 

[kellyvance]

 

I suppose it makes more sense to ride out Santana when we stink.

 

Instead of taking advantage of the market and selling high, better to wait till he gets hurt or starts declining or his contract runs out, and we get nothing to help us when we hopefully have a chance to be contenders. Sounds like a much better idea.

So we can set a record for losses in a season? 

[jimmer]

 

So we can set a record for losses in a season? 

Well, we just set a franchise record for losses WITH Dozier and Santana...I mean seriously.  

 

One of the things that has killed this team is not trading players who are at peak (or close to peak) trade value with few years left of team control.  I'd like for that to stop. It's not like Dozier is 24 and 5 years of control left.

 

We need prospects to help us for when we may actually be contenders again.  Even if we don't trade them, Dozier won't be with us when that happens and I doubt Santana will be either.

 

 

[Twins33]

Usually proven players aren't traded for proven players. It's not like the Twins can trade Dozier for Archer. Most trades are proven player for prospects or prospects for proven players. Not every trade is like that, but that's how the majority of them go.

 

I don't think anyone is saying it's a guarantee that if the Twins trade Dozier that they'll automatically be better in the pitching department, but it certainly doesn't hurt to try. Keeping Dozier only means the pitching still isn't improved, unless it magically improves like it did in 2015. The other five years, the Twins pitching has been absolutely awful. The team won't get better until the pitching improves, they could have four Dozier's on the team, but if they don't have pitching it doesn't matter.

 

To me the options are the following:

• Keep Dozier and have a good player and hope the pitching just magically improves like it did in 2015...but that it does it for more than one year (FYI, the improvement in the staff has happened once in the last six years and only lasted for one year). They tried mediocre free agents and that backfired. Hopefully long team deals for mediocre players stops.
• Keep Dozier, nothing improves. Twins are a bottom five team again, but hey, at least they have Dozier so they aren't completely unwatchable aka the 2016 Twins.
• Trade Dozier, the trade bombs for us. We don't improve at all and now we've lost Dozier.
• Trade Dozier, get 1-2 guys who help now and/or in the future (hopefully more guys than that, but being realistic). Twins rotation improves a lot faster than it would if they do absolutely nothing.

I lean towards trade and I lean there heavily, especially since I don't think Dozier is here after two years and the team is very likely to suck next year if they don't improve the pitching. So that really leaves Dozier on more of a one year deal than a two year deal. I don't think they're going to give a 32 year old a contract like 4/72 or 5/90, which if he keeps hitting like he has the last three years, is what he is going to get unless he takes a discount. And he is already on a discounted contract for what his production has been so I would think that would be unlikely. 

 

Sure, trading Dozier could lead to the Twins having nothing to show for it...but not trading Dozier almost guarantees that the Twins go nowhere for the next two years because he and Santana are their only trade chips unless you trade some of the young core...which a rebuilding team should not be doing. To me it makes perfect sense, not to just give Dozier away for anything, but to do it for what is deemed the right package...while knowing that even the right package may backfire on you.

[spinowner]

 

Awful?  Awful?  No, reasonable fair minded person could ever describe a guy who had the most home runs as a second baseman EVER as awful..  That is just ridiculous. The season is 162 games and every player has peaks and valleys. But  "AWFUL"  as a description of the best season for homers by a second baseman  EVER?  Really? PULLLEEEESSSE WISE UP.  

The post you are criticizing referred to the last 3 months of 2015 and the first 2 months of 2016. And yes, during that time he was awful.

[spinowner]

 

The team won't get better until the pitching improves, they could have four Dozier's on the team, but if they don't have pitching it doesn't matter.

 

 

13 And now these three remain: hitting, fielding and pitching. But the greatest of these is pitching.

[Twins33]

 

13 And now these three remain: hitting, fielding and pitching. But the greatest of these is pitching.

Right, it's not like pitching is the only problem...but it for sure is the biggest problem (and biggest by far, in my eyes) and it has been for five out of the last six years.

 

We've already seen what can happen when the pitching improves above bottom five in the league, 2015 is an example of that.

[spinowner]

 

 

Would you give up Buxton? Would you give up Gordon and Berrios? Would you untouchables? 

With the exception of players with no-trade clauses no player is untouchable. If the CBO and/or GM think a trade will advance the team toward the goal they have set then the trade will be made.

[IndianaTwin]

 

13 And now these three remain: hitting, fielding and pitching. But the greatest of these is pitching.

 

Having been accused many times of being a noisy gong or clanging cymbal, I can appreciate these post.

[jimmer]

Really bad defense makes pitching look worse than it is and really good defense makes pitching look better.  Nolasco in 2016 is an example.

 

Our pitching is very, very bad, but our horrible defense makes it look even worse.

[kellyvance]

 

The post you are criticizing referred to the last 3 months of 2015 and the first 2 months of 2016. And yes, during that time he was awful.

That is just so blatantly unfair. I would hate to have you do a performance evaluation for me at work. Man...talk about focusing on the negative. 

[kellyvance]

 

Really bad defense makes pitching look worse than it is and really good defense makes pitching look better.  Nolasco in 2016 is an example.

 

Our pitching is very, very bad, but our horrible defense make it look even worse.

You know, being strong up the middle is important. Dozier is a plus defender, but a plus plus hitter. We have improved the catcher position.  Bux will only get better. Polanco is playing out of position, but he is better than Escobar....unless Esco gets hot. Then play the hot bat.

 

You know, in the mid 80s we were not that good, then Kirby, Rat, Hrbek, all arrived at the same time in 87. I have been saying for two years : Let the kids play, take the consequences and keep Dozier. Extend the guy. He is a good influence and wants to stay.We need to see if the SPs and RPs we were developing can bring it. Santana is a team leader on the staff. Hughes and Perk need to bounce back. to.  But we could come closer to 2015 next year than 2016.  Be helpful if Sano went on a diet. 

[Twins33]

Really bad defense makes pitching look worse than it is and really good defense makes pitching look better.  Nolasco in 2016 is an example.

 

Our pitching is very, very bad, but our horrible defense makes it look even worse.

True, but Ervin Santana was the only starter to post a below 5 ERA this year. He had the same defense behind him that the others did. Most of the players FIP's were not great.

 

Can't win many ball games with only 1-2 good pitchers and we saw that on a daily basis.

[Vanimal46]

Awful?  Awful?  No, reasonable fair minded person could ever describe a guy who had the most home runs as a second baseman EVER as awful..  That is just ridiculous. The season is 162 games and every player has peaks and valleys. But  "AWFUL"  as a description of the best season for homers by a second baseman  EVER?  Really? PULLLEEEESSSE WISE UP.

 

In the 2nd half of 2015 he hit .210 with a .639 OPS... Then started out the first 2 months of 2016 hitting .202 with a .624 OPS. I would consider those numbers very bad.

 

There are peaks and valleys in baseball production. Not too many players come to mind who are ice cold for months at a time.

[Craig Arko]

Not too many players come to mind who are ice cold for months at a time.

The ones who continue to live in Minnesota.

[kellyvance]

 

In the 2nd half of 2015 he hit .210 with a .639 OPS... Then started out the first 2 months of 2016 hitting .202 with a .624 OPS. I would consider those numbers very bad.

There are peaks and valleys in baseball production. Not too many players come to mind who are ice cold for months at a time.

Yeah and Christopher Columbus didn't find America until the last 12 miles of the journey.

 

If you want to look for negatives and dwell on them, you will always see the bad. But more positive minds may say, look what the guy did and he did not even get squared away until late May.  What would he do if he had a career season start to finish.... 55 homers? See, I for one believe he would go for a modest extension, and he wants to be here.. unlike other players. Many posters just see numbers as if they are interchangeable.... but they aren't objects, they are people and some are better leaders than others. Doze is a team leader.   I'd like him to teach the kids how to play the game right. That can go pretty far towards building a competitive team again.  

[kellyvance]

But I am not adverse to trading Doze if it would bring back something more than mere prospects. I mean, prospects don't pan out more often than not. So even our best guys in the minors, Reed Burdie etc. are not locks. That is more true about pitchers than position players.

 

I'd try to extend Dozier for $10 -12 million for a season and see if he bites. That should make him even more attractive  

 

I'd also get real about the youngsters.  We have a youth movement going on. I been saying for two years now, let the kids play. Twins are doing that. Kepler, Rosario, Bux, Polanco and Sano are only going to get better with time.  Unfortunately our SP prospects have not been on the same trajectory. But according to supposedly everyone, help is on the way.... But I wonder about our pitching coaches up and down the line. I mean, other teams draft a guy and he is in the show in a couple years. We take 5, and then they come up and get shelled. Something is wrong with that. So just acquiring pitching prospects with our current minor league pitching coaches may not do much for us. 

I hope our new regime takes a long hard look at our pitching instructors and makes a few changes. 

[Vanimal46]

But I am not adverse to trading Doze if it would bring back something more than mere prospects. I mean, prospects don't pan out more often than not. So even our best guys in the minors, Reed Burdie etc. are not locks. That is more true about pitchers than position players.

 

I'd try to extend Dozier for $10 -12 million for a season and see if he bites. That should make him even more attractive

 

I'd also get real about the youngsters. We have a youth movement going on. I been saying for two years now, let the kids play. Twins are doing that. Kepler, Rosario, Bux, Polanco and Sano are only going to get better with time. Unfortunately our SP prospects have not been on the same trajectory. But according to supposedly everyone, help is on the way.... But I wonder about our pitching coaches up and down the line. I mean, other teams draft a guy and he is in the show in a couple years. We take 5, and then they come up and get shelled. Something is wrong with that. So just acquiring pitching prospects with our current minor league pitching coaches may not do much for us.

I hope our new regime takes a long hard look at our pitching instructors and makes a few changes.

$10-12 million isn't going to do it. If he's as great as you say, he's an $18-20 million player.

[Twins33]

$10-12 million isn't going to do it. If he's as great as you say, he's an $18-20 million player.

Yeah, 10-12 is a laughable amount. He'll get 9 in 2018. If he keeps hitting this way, he's definitely getting the amount you put.

 

Dozier already is on his discount contract. His next contract will be his last time to really cash in.

[kellyvance]

Well, but he said he wants to stay so what is that worth to him? 

He has kids. Living in LA is not as good for the kids as in a suburb of The Cities. 

So he might sign for a lower than expected number to stay. 

 

I guess its bad form to sign a player to an extension and then trade him.... unless that was talked about beforehand. And Doze has no reason to give a discount when the Dodgers will renegotiate him, if he does well in LA, to maybe better than market value. 

 

Could be the Twins brass are waiting out the Dodgers, hoping for a better offer, and thinking about what kind of team we have if he stays. 

[Twins33]

I don't think he likes it here enough to just say "nah, I don't want that extra 20-30 million that I deserve." And I don't believe he has kids, but wants some eventually. Think he said that in a recent interview.

 

He could re-sign for lower than expected but I don't think it would be that low. Maybe 15-16 per is the lowest I could imagine him going.

[Vanimal46]

Well, but he said he wants to stay so what is that worth to him? 

He has kids. Living in LA is not as good for the kids as in a suburb of The Cities. 

So he might sign for a lower than expected number to stay. 

 

I guess its bad form to sign a player to an extension and then trade him.... unless that was talked about beforehand. And Doze has no reason to give a discount when the Dodgers will renegotiate him, if he does well in LA, to maybe better than market value. 

 

Could be the Twins brass are waiting out the Dodgers, hoping for a better offer, and thinking about what kind of team we have if he stays.

 

Who says Dozier has to move his family to LA or wherever he goes? What he's worth is the highest bidder of FA. Could be the Dodgers, could be whoever else in the league. Do you think the Twins are paying $18-20 million for multiple years when he's entering his age 32 season?

[Cory Engelhardt]

When has the line "Let's see, we are going to pay you less than half of what you are worth, and instead of living by the ocean, you get to live in a suburb" worked on anyone who doesn't have kids and also isn't from an area where they have roots of any kind?

[DaveW]

Good article! I also would prefer not to trade Dozier at this stage, I think he is just hitting his early peak now and that the Twins should lock him up for the future.

 

Additionally if you must trade him, I would prefer that they waited til the deadline when they could demand a Urias types

 

Unfortunately though, it's clear he won't be a Twin for much longer

[laloesch]

 

Good article! I also would prefer not to trade Dozier at this stage, I think he is just hitting his early peak now and that the Twins should lock him up for the future.

Additionally if you must trade him, I would prefer that they waited til the deadline when they could demand a Urias types

Unfortunately though, it's clear he won't be a Twin for much longer

 

We'll see.  I'm a Dozier fan as well but this team's starting pitching is SO BAD that i think they have to trade him to bring in prospects and provide options.  We all know they are not going to spend the money to sign quality free agent starters and they keep getting more expensive year after year.  They are also stuck with two albatross contracts in Hughes (3 more seasons at 13.2 mil) and Mauer (2 more seasons at 23 mil), that's what 45% of the payroll currently?  .

 

Unfortunately, moves that stink of desperation are never a good thing, but the Twins under Terry Ryan backed themselves into this corner with years of poor drafting, poor scouting, lack of player development, bad contract extensions at the worst possible times, etc.  I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that they were using an archaic system of evaluating talent without substantial analytics.  

 

I mean what's it been, six straight years of futility (with a slight reprieve in 2015)? 

[LoDJohn]

The time to trade him is now.  As much as we all want him to stay and play here, it is a move that has to be done.  If there was a market for Ervin Santana I think they should explore that as well.