LaBombo Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 This strategy of giving up an out is pretty disproven. For example, Sean Dolinar of Fangraphs says that, between 2011 and 2013, there was a 41.13% chance of scoring a run with a runner on first and no outs and a 39.37% - yes, smaller - chance of scoring one run with a runner on second and one out. This is not a theory, or old school vs. new school, or even advanced analytics. Yet for some reason Molitor, despite knowing he has a team of bad bunters, continues to prefer giving up the out. But bad bunters turn into good bunters by bunting! Pretty soon... batting order filled with bunting samurai! "This {stuff} is chess, it ain't checkers"
Guest Guests Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 It's not even new news, as the numbers have been known (and have remained similar) since the Internet was young. http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/feda/datasets/expectedruns.htmlThe Twins just started using video in the minors a couple of years ago, because they wanted be sure that 21-year olds knew how to work with video. Do you think they're worried that people over 40 won't know how to use the internet, so they haven't introduced it yet?
Willihammer Provisional Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 This strategy of giving up an out is pretty disproven. For example, Sean Dolinar of Fangraphs says that, between 2011 and 2013, there was a 41.13% chance of scoring a run with a runner on first and no outs and a 39.37% - yes, smaller - chance of scoring one run with a runner on second and one out. This is not a theory, or old school vs. new school, or even advanced analytics. Yet for some reason Molitor, despite knowing he has a team of bad bunters, continues to prefer giving up the out.That's only the half of it. How often do batters just sac atempt-themselves into two strike counts? These figures compare hitting with a man on first to the *best case* scenario of the sac atempt, and still comes out behind.
PDX Twin Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 I love September games when teams actually have benches and can pinch-hit more than once or twice. How about rosters of 28? (Of course, the Twins would probably just have/need a pitching staff of 16.)
Guest Guests Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 That's only the half of it. How often do batters just sac atempt-thrmselved into two strike counts? These figures co compare hitting with man on first to the *best case* scenario of the sac atempt-thrmselved, amd still comes out behind.Well, you see, the underlying theory is that if you follow a bad strategy, but only with people who are bad at executing it, the two bads will cancel each other out and you'll end up with a positive. Fourth grade math.
Squirrel Community Moderator Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 I really like licorice caramels.
Willihammer Provisional Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 Molitor, this is your queue. Get. In. Rosie's. Face.
drock2190 Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 What kind of at bat was that?!
PDX Twin Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 What kind of at bat was that?! Rosario's? Three quarters of it was laudable. The last quarter ruined it all.
Willihammer Provisional Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 What kind of at bat was that?!Dog****. It was a dog**** at bat.
tharasix Provisional Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 On a positive note, my daughter just got on the big screen while I was in the restroom.
Hosken Bombo Disco Community Moderator Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 On a positive note, my daughter just got on the big screen while I was in the restroom.I thought they closed those after the 9th inning?
Platoon Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Author Posted September 11, 2016 Anyone else experiencing the occasional seizure with that insane psychedelic background they put on the scoreboard behind the pitcher between pitches? Thank god! I thought it was the brownies?
Platoon Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Author Posted September 11, 2016 And then they come home looking for money. It's just not fair.....http://www.hercampus.com/sites/default/files/2016/03/14/sad%20kitten%202_1.jpg If they're like your kids, they may change their mailing address, but they never really leave!
Squirrel Community Moderator Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 Oh man ... say what you will about Mauer, but that was the most awesome at bat.
Danchat Old-Timey Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 Cool, I guess that balk really helped! Also, Chargois just got his first career win!
Squirrel Community Moderator Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 Happy ending for once!What? You've only had a happy ending once? That's ... kinda sad.
jimmer Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 Oh man ... say what you will about Mauer, but that was the most awesome at bat.I had just got done yelling obscenities at him after letting that meatball go for a strike.
Monkeypaws Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 Shocked and amazed: D&B say that was Mauer's first walk-off hit since 2007, and only his 2nd ever? Preposterous....
D. Hocking Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 I suppose as the board's Mauer apologist/homer, I should say "Wohoo!"
jimmer Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 Mauer being the only player on the team who can have a game winning hit and still get bad mouthed after doing so :-)
jimmer Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 I suppose as the board's Mauer apologist/homer, I should say "Wohoo!"I thought I got labeled as that, but cool :-)
Squirrel Community Moderator Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 And I think Big Kitty has found his home. The people who came by tonight really liked him.
Monkeypaws Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Posted September 11, 2016 Mauer being the only player on the team who can have a game winning hit and still get bad mouthed after doing so :-) I'm not badmouthing him. I'm pretty sure i saw him win a game vs. Boston and Papelbon with a homer during the MVP season , 2009. The shock and amazement are legit :-0Mauer being the only player on the team who can have a game winning hit and still get bad mouthed after doing so :
Platoon Verified Member Posted September 11, 2016 Author Posted September 11, 2016 Anybody else thinking about what might happen if Palka or Walker II were available to pinch hit? Just think if they had brought Vargas up?
Marek Houston Wichita Wind Surge - AA SS On Saturday, Houston went 3-for-5 and scored two runs. After a short slump, he is now back over .290 on the season. Explore Marek Houston News >
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