Twins FO Rumors

Doomtints · September 7, 2016

Which one of the players let go was not brought into the system or signed as a free agent by Ryan?

You are the one saying that it matters which GM brought the player in. I never said anything along those lines.

I am stating that veterans were let go with no effort to replace them when Ryan came back. When I suggested this was done to thumb his nose at Smith, I was talking about how Ryan thought he had to cut spending down to the bone because (he felt) Smith started overpaying people. Plus he claimed veterans were poison and only home grown talent was worth a darn, which is surprising that any fan bought into.

Fast forward a bit and Ryan was spending just as much for worse players and fewer veterans. But rather than admit his plan did not work, he seemed to check out rather than make the painful trades and cuts he needed to make to fix his own mistakes.

Mike Sixel · September 7, 2016

It could well be argued that the ends with Polanco and Kepler justified the means. Meyer has done nothing right or wrong. One start by Meyers proves nothing. One year of healthy MLB production will define it.

how did you feel about how they handled Meyer....that's the question right now, isn't it?

I am not a fan of "it worked, therefore the process worked" as a rule. By that logic, if you drive drunk, and don't get in an accident, the means were justified. YMMV, of course, but that's where I come from.

DaveW · September 7, 2016

I know inhale been down on Molitor for a long time, so I am biased, but I honestly don't know how anyone can defend him at this stage.

He is clearly out of his element.

laloesch · September 7, 2016

Median isn't scewed, mean is.

The comment was about how much 100MM would be...and it not being on the low side.

The twins current payroll is $111MM, and is 23rd on the list.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Actually they were 18th when the season started, but you omitted that. Tricky tricky tricky.

And Median is defined by Wikipedia as "denoting or relating to a value or quantity lying at the midpoint of a frequency distribution of observed values or quantities, such that there is an equal probability of falling above or below it."

So... if a team at the bottom spends 69 million (Rays) and another team spends 266 million (Dodgers) the median would actually be 167.5 million. This number will fluctuate year to year of course, but lets forget about that. Based on 2016 payrolls as they currently stand all but the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Cubs, Giants, Angels and Rangers would fall into the upper median.

nicksaviking · September 7, 2016

Off topic but I keep seeing this abbreviation:

-The club is set to institute a two-tier arrangement, hiring a PBOp who will in turn hire a GM.-

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/09/twins-eyeing-cubs-front-office-in-executive-search.html

Pu-Leez, POBO (or PoBO if they must) is clearly a much better acronym for the position. These silly fools need to get on board the POBO train.

HitInAPinch · September 7, 2016

so, unlike sending Buxton up and down and up and down and up and down? Unlike benching Polanco and Kepler early this year? Unlike bouncing Meyer around the RP/SP role? Unlike pretty much how the Twins have been with young players that have struggled at all this year?

Young players that succeed, other than Vargas, get to keep playing. Young players that fail, other than Buxton....though even he was bounced up and down, are pretty much sat, roles are changed, or they are sent down.

As a rule, the Twins have done the exact opposite of being patient lately.

Mike, I don't really know what you're arguing here. Maybe I'm reading you wrong.

Right now, how are Buxton, Kepler and Polanco doing? All pretty good.

Kepler in a bit of a slump right now and they've kept playing him.

Buxton got sent down a few times because he wasn't retaining what he learned. Remember the "toe tap"? That seems to be gone now and he's looking a lot better at the plate.

Polanco? Hitting just under .300 at last look and fielding pretty well while moving around to 2-3 different positions.

Meyer? IDK. Between wildness and injuries I don't know what else they could have done other than trading him and wishing him the best.

Guess I could throw Sano in here, as well.

Pitching staff? Rogers, Tonkin, Pressly. Not enough innings to judge Chargois, Light and Wimmers on.

Starters? Not going there.....

Mike Sixel · September 8, 2016

The link was to an article saying you need to call up young players and show patience with them over a long time. I would argue the twins have not done that. Others may disagree.

Mike Sixel · September 8, 2016

Actually they were 18th when the season started, but you omitted that. Tricky tricky tricky.

And Median is defined by Wikipedia as "denoting or relating to a value or quantity lying at the midpoint of a frequency distribution of observed values or quantities, such that there is an equal probability of falling above or below it."

So... if a team at the bottom spends 69 million (Rays) and another team spends 266 million (Dodgers) the median would actually be 167.5 million. This number will fluctuate year to year of course, but lets forget about that. Based on 2016 payrolls as they currently stand all but the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Cubs, Giants, Angels and Rangers would fall into the upper median.

You have completely mixed up mean median.

USAFChief · September 8, 2016

You have completely mixed up mean median.

Actually, in his example, with only two teams, 167.5 would be both mean and median, no?

Given an even number of data points, the median is midway between the two numbers in the middle of the string of points, if I recall correctly.

1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Median is 3

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Median is 3.5

So if we're charitable, he didnt mix them up.

See what I did there?

Hosken Bombo Disco · September 8, 2016

What would people think about when after St. Peter announces the hire of the President of Baseball Operations, that right afterward Antony will be announced as the interim GM for another season--not interested in how anybody feels about such a move, but what the possibility of it might be.

Do bosses like a new POBO make big firings right away, if they are from the outside? Do they bring teams of executives with them? Would the Twins hire a guy who would bring his own team with him?

Oldgoat_MN · September 8, 2016

What would people think about when after St. Peter announces the hire of the President of Baseball Operations, that right afterward Antony will be announced as the interim GM for another season--not interested in how anybody feels about such a move, but what the possibility of it might be.

Do bosses like a new POBO make big firings right away, if they are from the outside? Do they bring teams of executives with them? Would the Twins hire a guy who would bring his own team with him?

Interesting idea.

The Twins could certainly hire someone who said that they wanted to 'get a feel' for the whole organization. This would give them time to assess every aspect of the team. If he or she decided, after one year, to dump Molitor and almost everyone else they could say why.

It would make things look purposeful, careful and thought-out rather than someone coming in, firing everyone and trading Berrios for, oh, I don't know, Nolasco?

I don't need something by April, but I want someone who will move this team forward in a big way, and fast.

I want post season play in 2018.

bird · September 8, 2016

The link was to an article saying you need to call up young players and show patience with them over a long time. I would argue the twins have not done that. Others may disagree.

Count me among the others who disagree. I find it funny and wonderfully ironic to hear any argument that the Twins, of all organizations frankly, have exhibited a lack of patience. I mean, for years, haven't we been frustrated by their abundance of patience? As for the shuffling of prospects back and forth, that's another matter. Maybe it's been misguided at times, or unfair, and maybe at other times it's been the best prescription. Those things are complicated and involve other considerations in addition to a guy's slash line. I think we have to separate the idea of patience in the way the Red Sox were being praised for it and for which the Twins could very well be praised for in any number of individual cases dating back to Torii Hunter for example, from the idea of how a player gets treated and used once he's up, or what might be best when a player is initially overwhelmed. Berrios, Duffey, Rosario, Vargas, Buxton, DanSan, Tonkin, Sano, and several others could all be described as being over-matched to some extent and for some period of time. And just like the Red Sox are demonstrating patience with Bogaarts, Bradley, and others, the Twins are demonstrating as much and maybe even more patience with every one of the players I mentioned. Unless I'm missing something, I'm not sure how anyone could make a good argument that there's some meaningful difference in approach, and frankly even in results when you consider pedigrees, between the two organizations. I suppose one could argue that the Twins prospects would be developing faster and/or more completely if they were brought up and kept up in MLB, but how does one build that case?

markos · September 8, 2016

What would people think about when after St. Peter announces the hire of the President of Baseball Operations, that right afterward Antony will be announced as the interim GM for another season--not interested in how anybody feels about such a move, but what the possibility of it might be.

Do bosses like a new POBO make big firings right away, if they are from the outside? Do they bring teams of executives with them? Would the Twins hire a guy who would bring his own team with him?

My guess is that the new POBO will hire a new GM fairly quickly, but that the remainder of the staff will be fairly stable for the first year or so, for two reasons:

1) When hiring someone from another organization (particularly someone already under contract), there are usually non-competes that prevent the person from bringing other people from that organization.

2) While teams a generally pretty good about letting front office personnel leave for a promotion in another organization, they generally cannot move to another org for a lateral move until their contract is up.

So, if AA was signed as POBO, he probably could only get one or two people currently in the Toronto or LA front offices. But as contracts expire over the months/years, it wouldn't be shocking to see a fair amount of turnover as scouts/coaches/directors/assistants that AA likes become available.

Mike Sixel · September 8, 2016

Count me among the others who disagree. I find it funny and wonderfully ironic to hear any argument that the Twins, of all organizations frankly, have exhibited a lack of patience. I mean, for years, haven't we been frustrated by their abundance of patience? As for the shuffling of prospects back and forth, that's another matter. Maybe it's been misguided at times, or unfair, and maybe at other times it's been the best prescription. Those things are complicated and involve other considerations in addition to a guy's slash line. I think we have to separate the idea of patience in the way the Red Sox were being praised for it and for which the Twins could very well be praised for in any number of individual cases dating back to Torii Hunter for example, from the idea of how a player gets treated and used once he's up, or what might be best when a player is initially overwhelmed. Berrios, Duffey, Rosario, Vargas, Buxton, DanSan, Tonkin, Sano, and several others could all be described as being over-matched to some extent and for some period of time. And just like the Red Sox are demonstrating patience with Bogaarts, Bradley, and others, the Twins are demonstrating as much and maybe even more patience with every one of the players I mentioned. Unless I'm missing something, I'm not sure how anyone could make a good argument that there's some meaningful difference in approach, and frankly even in results when you consider pedigrees, between the two organizations. I suppose one could argue that the Twins prospects would be developing faster and/or more completely if they were brought up and kept up in MLB, but how does one build that case?

The Sox players were overwhelmed, they left them in the majors. Can we say the same about Vargas? Chargois? Meyer? Berrios? We just disagree, I'm ok with that.

Mike Sixel · September 8, 2016

What would people think about when after St. Peter announces the hire of the President of Baseball Operations, that right afterward Antony will be announced as the interim GM for another season--not interested in how anybody feels about such a move, but what the possibility of it might be.

Do bosses like a new POBO make big firings right away, if they are from the outside? Do they bring teams of executives with them? Would the Twins hire a guy who would bring his own team with him?

It would not totally shock me, but I'd not be thrilled with it.

Mike Sixel · September 8, 2016

Actually they were 18th when the season started, but you omitted that. Tricky tricky tricky.

And Median is defined by Wikipedia as "denoting or relating to a value or quantity lying at the midpoint of a frequency distribution of observed values or quantities, such that there is an equal probability of falling above or below it."

So... if a team at the bottom spends 69 million (Rays) and another team spends 266 million (Dodgers) the median would actually be 167.5 million. This number will fluctuate year to year of course, but lets forget about that. Based on 2016 payrolls as they currently stand all but the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Cubs, Giants, Angels and Rangers would fall into the upper median.

There is nothing "tricky" here. I went to one of the more respected sites for reporting on payroll, I looked at the list, and saw where $100MM stood. That was the extent of my effort.

Doomtints · September 8, 2016

Here's a neat trick.

If you think median might skew things, and you think mean might skew things ... use both! Take the mean and median and average THEM together. Essentially, you take the average of the two averages.

You should then end up with a number that you are comfortable with.

You could also plot out a regression analysis and see what which teams are paying too much or too little, which is rather simple to do as it's built in Excel.

laloesch · September 8, 2016

You have completely mixed up mean median.

No I'm not. Mean is average median is the mid point between a range of numbers, not middle. So yeah I'm right and your wrong on this one Mike.

Mike Sixel · September 8, 2016

No I'm not. Mean is average median is the mid point between a range of numbers, not middle. So yeah I'm right and your wrong on this one Mike.

You calculated the mean in your example......

Median is the mid point of a list....

1

2

100

1000

5000

1000000

100000000

The median in that list 1000. You do not take 1 and 100000000 and do some math to find the median. edit to fix mean:.....14429443.29

I guess maybe in your example you were looking at a list that varied from the Rays to the Dodgers, and did not do math to find your number.

In any event, I don't really care....so I doubt I'll respond again.

Doomtints · September 8, 2016

No I'm not. Mean is average median is the mid point between a range of numbers, not middle. So yeah I'm right and your wrong on this one Mike.

"Mean" and "Median" are both ways to calculate average depending upon what you are wanting to do. Most people use mean exclusively.

"Median" is the middle number in an odd-numbered set. In an even numbered set, it is the average of the two numbers in the middle. You seem to be suggesting median is the average of the highest number and the lowest number (the range) which is not right.

old nurse · September 8, 2016

You are the one saying that it matters which GM brought the player in. I never said anything along those lines.

I am stating that veterans were let go with no effort to replace them when Ryan came back. When I suggested this was done to thumb his nose at Smith, I was talking about how Ryan thought he had to cut spending down to the bone because (he felt) Smith started overpaying people. Plus he claimed veterans were poison and only home grown talent was worth a darn, which is surprising that any fan bought into.

Fast forward a bit and Ryan was spending just as much for worse players and fewer veterans. But rather than admit his plan did not work, he seemed to check out rather than make the painful trades and cuts he needed to make to fix his own mistakes.

When you say

. In retrospect it really looks like this was done to be snotty towards the previous GM than it was anything else, because Ryan had no plan to replace anybody.

It would be looking at the moves Smith had made. Cuddyer and Kubel became Willingham and Doumit, who then gave way to a series of prospect failures.

old nurse · September 8, 2016

how did you feel about how they handled Meyer....that's the question right now, isn't it?

I am not a fan of "it worked, therefore the process worked" as a rule. By that logic, if you drive drunk, and don't get in an accident, the means were justified. YMMV, of course, but that's where I come from.

Comparing developing baseball skills to drunk driving. I would have considered it one of the weirder arguments posted if not for presidential politics. Do you think that the time up here the coaches did not work with the players, all learning stopped ? They came to the ballpark put on their uniforms and sat in the clubhouse then sat on the bench. So, since I must be really really really ignorant, how does that have anything at all with being drunk and avoiding consequence.

In regards to Meyer pitching one mlb game of 3.1 innings 68 pitches to do so, the Twins were probably justified in being confused what to do with him. At that pitch count per inning he is not going to make it far into games. There were 2 on when he left, so the reliever did their job of not making the damage worse. An over 25% BB% is not going to get a starter a fruitful career. A 6% difference between your K% and BB% does not bode well. Off of this one game how can you say right or wrong what the Twins did?

Mike Sixel · September 8, 2016

Comparing developing baseball skills to drunk driving. I would have considered it one of the weirder arguments posted if not for presidential politics. Do you think that the time up here the coaches did not work with the players, all learning stopped ? They came to the ballpark put on their uniforms and sat in the clubhouse then sat on the bench. So, since I must be really really really ignorant, how does that have anything at all with being drunk and avoiding consequence.

In regards to Meyer pitching one mlb game of 3.1 innings 68 pitches to do so, the Twins were probably justified in being confused what to do with him. At that pitch count per inning he is not going to make it far into games. There were 2 on when he left, so the reliever did their job of not making the damage worse. An over 25% BB% is not going to get a starter a fruitful career. A 6% difference between your K% and BB% does not bode well. Off of this one game how can you say right or wrong what the Twins did?

I did not compare the two things at all....I pointed out that the ends of a bad process do not justify the process, and gave an example.

laloesch · September 8, 2016

You calculated the mean in your example......

Median is the mid point of a list....

1
2
100
1000
5000
1000000
100000000

The median in that list 1000. You do not take 1 and 100000000 and do some math to find the median. edit to fix mean:.....14429443.29

I guess maybe in your example you were looking at a list that varied from the Rays to the Dodgers, and did not do math to find your number.

In any event, I don't really care....so I doubt I'll respond again.

"Mean" and "Median" are both ways to calculate average depending upon what you are wanting to do. Most people use mean exclusively.

"Median" is the middle number in an odd-numbered set. In an even numbered set, it is the average of the two numbers in the middle. You seem to be suggesting median is the average of the highest number and the lowest number (the range) which is not right.

I am wrong. My apologies.

Mike Sixel · September 8, 2016

I am wrong. My apologies.

No need to apologize at all. It is a pretty common mistake. Have a great day!

Doomtints · September 8, 2016

I am wrong. My apologies.

I'm wrong all the time. Welcome to the club. It took you long enough to become a member.

Mike Sixel · September 8, 2016

Comparing developing baseball skills to drunk driving. I would have considered it one of the weirder arguments posted if not for presidential politics. Do you think that the time up here the coaches did not work with the players, all learning stopped ? They came to the ballpark put on their uniforms and sat in the clubhouse then sat on the bench. So, since I must be really really really ignorant, how does that have anything at all with being drunk and avoiding consequence.

In regards to Meyer pitching one mlb game of 3.1 innings 68 pitches to do so, the Twins were probably justified in being confused what to do with him. At that pitch count per inning he is not going to make it far into games. There were 2 on when he left, so the reliever did their job of not making the damage worse. An over 25% BB% is not going to get a starter a fruitful career. A 6% difference between your K% and BB% does not bode well. Off of this one game how can you say right or wrong what the Twins did?

I can't say off one game if they handled him correctly, but I can look at the last couple years and have an opinion that they did. No problem for me if you don't agree. Like I said, I'm not drawing conclusions on outcomes (SSS or not SSS), but on the process.

old nurse · September 8, 2016

I did not compare the two things at all....I pointed out that the ends of a bad process do not justify the process, and gave an example.

You completely ignore that learning from the coaches happen while they are not playing

The process still hasn't determined if Meyer can be a starter. Opinions based on nothing concrete become petty. Washington wouldn't give up someone they thought was a top of the rotation pitcher for Span. There was enough of a red flag for them to trade him. It is not like Meyer was going to be easy to get a modicum of control. The Twins couldn't get his potential out of him, Washington did not think they could. Now it is the Angel's turn. If they can't then the Twins did not handle him incorrectly. Meyer becomes a talented player who couldn't put it together.

Mike Sixel · September 8, 2016

You completely ignore that learning from the coaches happen while they are not playing

where have I commented on that at all?

old nurse · September 8, 2016

where have I commented on that at all?

You complained of Polanco and Kepler sitting.

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