The Key to the Twins Offseason is....Brian Dozier?

[DaveW]

One other note: yes Polanco "could" replace Dozier, just like how Phil Humber "could" replace Johan Santana.

[HitInAPinch]

After reading all 11 pages, I can honestly say:

 

I can't wait for the FO restructuring to be completed and new General Manager is hired.    

[Mike Sixel]

 

One other note: yes Polanco "could" replace Dozier, just like how Phil Humber "could" replace Johan Santana.

 

Or, he could turn out to be Knoblauch, or something in between......right?

[DaveW]

Or, he could turn out to be Knoblauch, or something in between......right?

Sure why not, but you get my point. Replacing a 6 WAR player isn't easy

[wsnydes]

 

Sure why not, but you get my point. Replacing a 6 WAR player isn't easy

No, but it's easier if you believe this one season is an outlier rather than what he's going to be for the rest of his contract.

 

He doesn't have to replace him stat for stat.  The replacement can fill a completely different role with the team with others stepping up to fill the void.  That's the beauty of team sports.

[DaveW]

No, but it's easier if you believe this one season is an outlier rather than what he's going to be for the rest of his contract.

 

He doesn't have to replace him stat for stat. The replacement can fill a completely different role with the team with others stepping up to fill the void. That's the beauty of team sports.

Well he has now had 5+ war seasons in 2 of his last three, and is now in his prime. I think he certainly is a 5-6.5 war player moving forward for at least the next couple years.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sure why not, but you get my point. Replacing a 6 WAR player isn't easy

 

If that was your point, I agree, replacing a great player is very difficult.

[wsnydes]

 

Well he has now had 5+ war seasons in 2 of his last three, and is now in his prime. I think he certainly is a 5-6.5 war player moving forward for at least the next couple years.

Ok, that doesn't change my opinion one bit.  Scoring runs isn't the problem, stopping the opponent from scoring them is.  I'm personally very tired of seeing this team lose 15-9.  My 5+ WAR 2B isn't getting me wins, but perhaps he can net me a starting pitcher than can.  This isn't the NBA, one man teams don't work.  In his two 5+ WAR seasons, this team will come close to losing 200 games.  Neat!

 

There's nothing sexier (in baseball anyway) than wins.  It's not about WAR, HRs, whatever.  It's about W's. 

 

This team needs pitching more than it needs a 5+ WAR second baseman.

[TheLeviathan]

If that was your point, I agree, replacing a great player is very difficult.

Almost as difficult as rebuilding an entire pitching staff.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

As I've said before I'm in no rush to trade Dozier but what is better?

 

1. Dozier at second, Polanco at short, and a below replacement level starting pitcher. Let's say Dozier is a 5-6 WAR player. Polanco is a 2-3 WAR player. The starting pitcher is a -1 WAR player. That's 6 WAR on the low end of things.

 

2. Polanco at second, Escobar at short, and a promising 2-4 WAR starting pitcher. Polanco is a 2-3 WAR player. Escobar is a 2-3 WAR player. The starter is a 2-4 WAR player. We, again, end up at 6 WAR but I think the second result nets you more wins.

 

It's a matter of finding that promising young pitcher, which isn't easy to do. Teams are loathe to trade that guy in most cases.

[Kwak]

 

But you want to highlight a deal with Rosario and add other prospects.  Sorry Dave, that is a video game trade idea. 

 

Adding someone like May doesn't help us for at least 3-4 seasons down the line and is a risky manuever.  Frankly, as far as I'm concerned, Rosario is the starting LF next year.  I'd rather keep him around as Buxton insurance (that kid has hardly been durable) and find other ways to add pitching.

 

Again, Dozier has been wonderful for the last three months.  A binge of epic proportions.  He was also flirting with an OPS of around .600 in May and nearly into June.  He's 29.  He won't be here more than two more years.  How many more glaring, neon-lit red flags for "DEAL ME NOW!" does there have to be?  If there was ever a sell high moment, it'll come in about two months time.  

 

The Dodgers, maybe even the Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates, Mets, Red Sox, and possibly others might all be able to offer us something interesting for Dozier.  We should be shopping him hard.

 

And I wouldn't set the bar at getting an ace.  I'd set the bar at getting a guy with clear #2 potential and more.  Like Berrios.  And I'd want a couple other young pieces (pitching or catching) as well.

+1!

 

The Twins should be seeking multiple players: one major league starter, one high-level milb pitcher, and 2 solid prospects at the low minors. Don't worry--teams will pay for a 40-HR hitter! Especially one at a cost-controlled salary for two years that will be less than Dozier will get  after he turns free agent.

 

The posts of --"...won't get much..." or "not worth much" are ridiculous. Those guys are rare! Super expensive--and Dozier plays a position (unlike some DH only types). If Dozier really wasn't worth much, then why would anyone object to trading him?--based on the premise "he isn't worth much".

[DaveW]

Almost as difficult as rebuilding an entire pitching staff.....

Berrios

Santana

Hughes

Gibson

May

 

3 of those 5 guys should fill out the middle of your rotation in 2017, no?

 

Just need one ace type and one 5.

 

No more deans, milones, nolascos, etc in the rotation, especially not multiple of them.

 

IMO the pen is the bigger mess right now. Is there a single guy on this current pen you "trust" right now?

[snepp]

And we have absolutely no idea what they plan to do with this team.

 

http://i585.photobucket.com/albums/ss298/SUPERHUMAN12_2009/AtomicBomb.gif

[TheLeviathan]

 

Berrios
Santana
Hughes
Gibson
May

3 of those 5 guys should fill out the middle of your rotation in 2017, no?

Just need one ace type and one 5.

No more deans, milones, nolascos, etc in the rotation, especially not multiple of them.

IMO the pen is the bigger mess right now. Is there a single guy on this current pen you "trust" right now?

 

You realize we pitched the Milones, Nolascos, and Deans in part because some of the guys on the list you just posted were either not starters, not good enough to be starters, or hurt.....right?

 

Now let's talk the reality of your position:  There are no aces available in FA.  You'll have to trade for one if you want one.  Unless you plan to trade Berrios, Buxton, Kepler, or Sano (since you've ruled out Dozier) - you're essentially ruling out an ace.

 

You're proposing we walk into 2016 (and 2017 and 2018) with nothing to hope for internally to improve the team but Berrios and probably Gonsalves.  You'll ask Dozier to play his 30 year old and 31 year old seasons with a pitching staff consisting of "meh" Gibson, the hope of Berrios, the cross your fingers he can come back resurrection of May as a starter, and an aging Ervin Santana.  And maybe, just maybe, Gonsalves debuts sometime late 2017.

 

The guy you are so desperate to keep (even if he continues this Ruthian production) is wasted on a team that can't get anyone out.  And you wasted the opportunity to actually fix the biggest issue (the pitching) because you just had to hold on to him.

 

And one more thing, I can almost guarantee in two years if the Twins listen to you that you'll be singing a different tune because it will be so obvious that the course of action you're recommending was short sighted.

[tobi0040]

You realize we pitched the Milones, Nolascos, and Deans in part because some of the guys on the list you just posted were either not starters, not good enough to be starters, or hurt.....right?

 

Now let's talk the reality of your position: There are no aces available in FA. You'll have to trade for one if you want one. Unless you plan to trade Berrios, Buxton, Kepler, or Sano (since you've ruled out Dozier) - you're essentially ruling out an ace.

 

You're proposing we walk into 2016 (and 2017 and 2018) with nothing to hope for internally to improve the team but Berrios and probably Gonsalves. You'll ask Dozier to play his 30 year old and 31 year old seasons with a pitching staff consisting of "meh" Gibson, the hope of Berrios, the cross your fingers he can come back resurrection of May as a starter, and an aging Ervin Santana. And maybe, just maybe, Gonsalves debuts sometime late 2017.

 

The guy you are so desperate to keep (even if he continues this Ruthian production) is wasted on a team that can't get anyone out. And you wasted the opportunity to actually fix the biggest issue (the pitching) because you just had to hold on to him.

 

And one more thing, I can almost guarantee in two years if the Twins listen to you that you'll be singing a different tune because it will be so obvious that the course of action you're recommending was short sighted.

Exactly and we need to focus on how bad we are. If Berrios somehow throws up a 3.50 ERA and replaces Ricky's 5.50 over 200 IP. That is very optimistic and cuts just 44 of the roughly 200 we need to have a top five staff in the AL.

[DaveW]

You realize we pitched the Milones, Nolascos, and Deans in part because some of the guys on the list you just posted were either not starters, not good enough to be starters, or hurt.....right?

 

Now let's talk the reality of your position: There are no aces available in FA. You'll have to trade for one if you want one. Unless you plan to trade Berrios, Buxton, Kepler, or Sano (since you've ruled out Dozier) - you're essentially ruling out an ace.

 

You're proposing we walk into 2016 (and 2017 and 2018) with nothing to hope for internally to improve the team but Berrios and probably Gonsalves. You'll ask Dozier to play his 30 year old and 31 year old seasons with a pitching staff consisting of "meh" Gibson, the hope of Berrios, the cross your fingers he can come back resurrection of May as a starter, and an aging Ervin Santana. And maybe, just maybe, Gonsalves debuts sometime late 2017.

 

The guy you are so desperate to keep (even if he continues this Ruthian production) is wasted on a team that can't get anyone out. And you wasted the opportunity to actually fix the biggest issue (the pitching) because you just had to hold on to him.

 

And one more thing, I can almost guarantee in two years if the Twins listen to you that you'll be singing a different tune because it will be so obvious that the course of action you're recommending was short sighted.

As I have said now, 5 or 6? Times, by all means trade Dozier for an ace (top 15 pitcher in baseball)

 

No thanks to a stroman type.

 

After next year the FA SP is very sexy:

Cueto

Darvish

Arrieta

Tanaka

Cobb

Lackey

Kennedy

Loris no

Chatwood

 

Just to name a few.

 

You can try to trade for Chatwood or someone like that this off season (wouldn't cost dozier) of you can trade for Liriano as well.

 

In the meantime, sign dozier to a 2-3 year extension and have your core set.

 

Twins would have plenty of money at that time to sign a top flight pitcher or two.

 

Twins aren't going to go from 105 losses to the playoffs next year anyways. It's gonna take 2 years, dozier and his 40+ hrs should be part of that core.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Just to name a few.

You can try to trade for Chatwood or someone like that this off season (wouldn't cost dozier) of you can trade for Liriano as well.

In the meantime, sign dozier to a 2-3 year extension and have your core set.

Twins would have plenty of money at that time to sign a top flight pitcher or two.

Twins aren't going to go from 105 losses to the playoffs next year anyways. It's gonna take 2 years, dozier and his 40+ hrs should be part of that core.

 

No one is going to try to improve their team by trading a current ace for Dozier.  

 

And are you seriously banking on signing an ace after next season to fix the pitching?  You're literally advocating for the strategy of punting on improving the pitching until 2017 and find that to be a wise idea?

 

Dozier will be at least 31 and that extension you mentioned will cost you an insane amount of money to extend him past the age of 35.  (Likely well past it)  So you want to hand Dozier what is likely (in your scenario where he's still a beast and producing until he's 32) 100M dollars and then hand an ace another 200-250M within a year?

 

As long as we're living in a fantasy world can I have a cookie and a million dollars in your plan?

[DaveW]

No one is going to try to improve their team by trading a current ace for Dozier.

 

And are you seriously banking on signing an ace after next season to fix the pitching? You're literally advocating for the strategy of punting on improving the pitching until 2017 and find that to be a wise idea?

 

Dozier will be at least 31 and that extension you mentioned will cost you an insane amount of money to extend him past the age of 35. (Likely well past it) So you want to hand Dozier what is likely (in your scenario where he's still a beast and producing until he's 32) 100M dollars and then hand an ace another 200-250M within a year?

 

As long as we're living in a fantasy world can I have a cookie and a million dollars in your plan?

No I said trade for any of chat wood, Liriano and Miller this off season, that a healthy Hughes and a more experienced Berrios improves the rotation for 2017, after the season you sign an ace.

 

Dozier just hit number 39, he might be a 40 HR hitter by 9:30 pm tonight at this pace, and a 50 HR guy by season end.

 

I wouldn't give dozier 100 million extension, I would tear up his current deal: give him 9 mil each of next two seasons, and 3 years at 18 million for the extension. Which basically works out to an extra 60 million or so for him for sticking around for 3 more seasons.

 

20 mil a year basically, all he needs to do is be a 3.5 war player to be worth it at that price point, likely he is a 5-6.5 war player though through age 33.

 

Mauers money is off the books then too, along with some others I believe, plenty of money to sign an ace after 2017.

 

Lastly, cool it with the fantasy world hyperbole, everyone else is being respectful of each other, your hyperbole for dismissing me is getting tired.

[TheLeviathan]

 

No I said trade for any of chat wood, Liriano and Miller this off season, that a healthy Hughes and a more experienced Berrios improves the rotation for 2017, after the season you sign an ace.

Dozier just hit number 39, he might be a 40 HR hitter by 9:30 pm tonight at this pace, and a 50 HR guy by season end.

I wouldn't give dozier 100 million extension, I would tear up his current deal: give him 9 mil each of next two seasons, and 3 years at 18 million for the extension. Which basically works out to an extra 60 million or so for him for sticking around for 3 more seasons.

20 mil a year basically, all he needs to do is be a 3.5 war player to be worth it at that price point, likely he is a 5-6.5 war player though through age 33.

Mauers money is off the books then too, along with some others I believe, plenty of money to sign an ace after 2017.

Lastly, cool it with the fantasy world hyperbole, everyone else is being respectful of each other, your hyperbole for dismissing me is getting tired.

 

What's getting tired is taking a serious argument and arguings things that aren't going to happen constitutes an alternative.  Dozier wouldn't sign that extension with a terrible team if it continued to roll out bad pitching.  We aren't going to spend 250M+ on a 30 something ace.  These things aren't happening.  They're not on the menu of available choices.  

 

Shelby Miller isn't going to come cheap.  Liriano is going to cost you Gonsalves or some other comparable talent.  Hughes isn't someone I'd count on for anything other than showing up for rehab.

 

Meanwhile you want to bank on 30+ year old Dozier hitting 40 home runs instead.  It's just unwise.   Really, really unwise.

[DaveW]

What's getting tired is taking a serious argument and arguings things that aren't going to happen constitutes an alternative. Dozier wouldn't sign that extension with a terrible team if it continued to roll out bad pitching. We aren't going to spend 250M+ on a 30 something ace. These things aren't happening. They're not on the menu of available choices.

 

Shelby Miller isn't going to come cheap. Liriano is going to cost you Gonsalves or some other comparable talent. Hughes isn't someone I'd count on for anything other than showing up for rehab.

 

Meanwhile you want to bank on 30+ year old Dozier hitting 40 home runs instead. It's just unwise. Really, really unwise.

How do you know what Miller, Liriano, Chatwood etc would cost?

 

Why does Hughes get no benefit of the doubt for being able to come back from injury?

 

Dozier has increased his power significantly each of the last 4 seasons, thinking that he can keep it up (or match this season) isn't nearly as absurd as you are making it out to be.

 

Additionally I never said to spend $250 million on an ace. Plenty of great pitchers have been signed for a ton less (see: Cueto this yet)

 

Back to dozier Most of his bombs are no doubters, let's not pretend he is just getting lucky up their at the plate or something.

 

You act like he is turning 36 or something, this idea that he is going to for sure decline in his age 30 season seems a little overkill to be honest, especially with him as mentioned showing improvement power wise each of the last four years.

 

Anyways, I'm done discussing this with you, clearly we disagree and you have no desire to discuss reasonably, instead just tossing in hyperbole left and right. I respect your opinion that they should trade him, I just think they need to aim for an ace, and nothing less.

 

2B (who are at least league average fielding wise) who hit 40 HR and a .926 ops are very special, they are the kind of players you build around. Of course that's just my opinion.

[tobi0040]

If we are punting the next year or two, you may look at moving Ervin this off-season too.

 

If you look at the options on the FA market, he maybe the top prize. Especially if you factor in his 2-28 contract.

[DaveW]

If we are punting the next year or two, you may look at moving Ervin this off-season too.

 

If you look at the options on the FA market, he maybe the top prize. Especially if you factor in his 2-28 contract.

I'm all for moving Ervin, but it has to again be for the right package.

 

I.e. One close to major league ready pitcher with slightly more upside then Santana (in a year or so) and another pitching prospect with good upside (2-3 years out)

 

Basically pitching needs to be priorities A B C D and maybe even E heading into the next two years. Catcher maybe fits in there for E as well

[TheLeviathan]

 

How do you know what Miller, Liriano, Chatwood etc would cost?

Why does Hughes get no benefit of the doubt for being able to come back from injury?

Dozier has increased his power significantly each of the last 4 seasons, thinking that he can keep it up (or match this season) isn't nearly as absurd as you are making it out to be.

Additionally I never said to spend $250 million on an ace. Plenty of great pitchers have been signed for a ton less (see: Cueto this yet)

Back to dozier Most of his bombs are no doubters, let's not pretend he is just getting lucky up their at the plate or something.

You act like he is turning 36 or something, this idea that he is going to for sure decline in his age 30 season seems a little overkill to be honest, especially with him as mentioned showing improvement power wise each of the last four years.

Anyways, I'm done discussing this with you, clearly we disagree and you have no desire to discuss reasonably, instead just tossing in hyperbole left and right. I respect your opinion that they should trade him, I just think they need to aim for an ace, and nothing less.

2B (who are at least league average fielding wise) who hit 40 HR and a .926 ops are very special, they are the kind of players you build around. Of course that's just my opinion.

 

Well, I could ask you the same question - how do you know those players are going to cost something reasonable?  The demands, at the deadline for Miller, were said to be extremely high.

 

Hughes doesn't get the benefit of the doubt because the injury he's coming back from, coupled with his age, and his velocity pre-injury makes the odds ridiculously high against him returning.

 

The facts on player decline, especially in the middle infield, are pretty clear.  Could he buck that trend?  Sure, but why plan on that?  

 

Again, even assuming Dozier would accept that extension until he's 36 and even assuming you could spend money in FA to get an ace (Cueto is the exception for spending, generally if you're going to recommend to "buy an ace" you're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars)....is that really the smart or best bet?  To hope that Dozier keeps hitting 40 home runs until he's older than Mauer is now while banking on the team to be splashy in FA for a pitcher that is likely in his 30s?

 

In the meantime the pitching is still a disaster for next year and all our eggs are in the basket of handing money to people to join a terrible team while simultaneously hoping Dozier is the exception to general aging trends.  Why would you bet on that course of action as opposed to maximizing Dozier's value by getting several (and at least one elite) good prospects instead?  

[TheLeviathan]

 

Basically pitching needs to be priorities A B C D and maybe even E heading into the next two years. Catcher maybe fits in there for E as well

 

Exactly.  Which is why shopping, and hopefully finding a buyer for, Dozier should be the primary objective of this offseason.

[beckmt]

You don't need to trade Dozier for a sure ace.  You need to trade Dozier for Urias  or someone of like promise plus more and sign an ace after the 2017 season. 

[Riverbrian]

I didn't want to trade Dozier back in May when he seemed hopelessly broken. 

 

I didn't want to trade when he seemingly got back to the normal Dozier because I thought that he would be a nice veteran to compete with a young team that's going to do some great things in the future. 

 

Now... My God... Trade Him... You should be able to land a young pitcher with incredible upside and ready to start his MLB career in 2017. Like a Urias and maybe a talented add on.

 

Trade for pitching only... 

 

If you can't get that... Keep Him. 

 

But you should be able to get that... So trade him!!!

 

Dozier has turned himself into... Da Dun Dah... The INCREDIBLE PACKAGE!!!

[Major League Ready]

There has been a lot of complaining here about we never sell high?  I am not positive that we can but it has become a no-brainer for me after reading the debate.  The reasons are as follows. 

 

1) It is going to take more than a year to get into contention.

2) Dozier is signed for two years.  No way would I count on or want the Twins to pay what it will take for the number of years it will take if he continues to produce.  The point is moot if he does not continue to produce at this level.

3) Between May, Berrios, Gonsalves, Jay, Stewart, Romero, Meija, and hopefully a stud college SP next June, we should be able to build a very good staff.   The bonus to all that low price pitching will afford us the opportunity to sign an elite free agent to fill whatever role is necessary.   

4) Mauer, Santana, Nolasco, Hughes, and Perkins are off the books after 2018.  If we build from the farm, we will be in a great position to extend our young core and still afford premium FA talent.

5) We have plenty of offense, especially if Buxton pulls it together as I expect he will.  Polanco should be better defensively.

6) We have a great glove first SS in Vielma a year away and Gordon right behind him to pair with Polanco at 2B and Gordon is not far behind.

[Vanimal46]

 

You don't need to trade Dozier for a sure ace.  You need to trade Dozier for Urias  or someone of like promise plus more and sign an ace after the 2017 season. 

I won't say whether or not Urias is a realistic target... But that would be a dream scenario in my book. If the Twins needed to include a prospect or 2 to make it happen I'm open to that too. 

[DaveW]

 

I won't say whether or not Urias is a realistic target... But that would be a dream scenario in my book. If the Twins needed to include a prospect or 2 to make it happen I'm open to that too. 

I would do that in a heartbeat for sure, highly doubt the Dodgers would though.

Also not so fun fact: Meyer pitched fantastic for the LAA today in his start (pitch count of 68 pitches) 5k's in 3IP, 1 H, 1 R

 

Hopefully the next regime knows what a sunk cost is, and doesn't give away one of our best 2 or 3 arms in the system in order to trade away a guy like Nolasco.

We all agree the Twins pitching is a freaking disaster, which makes the moves like dumping Meyer and moving May to the pen even more head scratching.

Basically, I don't think we need to move Dozier to improve our pitching, we just need a front office that is the exact opposite of the old one/current one.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

I would do that in a heartbeat for sure, highly doubt the Dodgers would though.

Also not so fun fact: Meyer pitched fantastic for the LAA today in his start (pitch count of 68 pitches) 5k's in 3IP, 1 H, 1 R

 

Hopefully the next regime knows what a sunk cost is, and doesn't give away one of our best 2 or 3 arms in the system in order to trade away a guy like Nolasco.

We all agree the Twins pitching is a freaking disaster, which makes the moves like dumping Meyer and moving May to the pen even more head scratching.

Basically, I don't think we need to move Dozier to improve our pitching, we just need a front office that is the exact opposite of the old one/current one.

Meh. Meyer also had 4 walks in 3.1 IP. Still sounds like the same pitcher who doesn't know where his pitches are going to end up once it leaves his hand.

I was all on board with DFA-ing Nolasco. I still don't mind the trade to try and get someone like Santiago who may be a middle of the rotation arm. Everything about the pitching this season is diseased in Minnesota.