Twins trade rumors

[jimmer]

 

As I recall most posters sung ​At Last when the Jepsen trade went down. Comments like "who's Hu" were common. While I (and others) thought more than one RP was needed, there was certainly a belief of "things are looking up."

I didn't like it, and I said so. I had real issues with his inherited runs allowed to score stats (which I find important for a reliever).

[Mr. Brooks]

Sure, they had down games in August but they were a lot better in Aug/Sept then before. They had something around a 3.80era in 213ip in those months compared to 4.25era in 147ip in June/July. And "too little, too late" is a bit disingenuous since they were in the WC lead for part of Aug/Sept (after falling below .500). The pen wasn't the reason they didn't make it.

And where did that 3.80 ERA over that period rank in the AL? I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I have to think it was surely in the bottom half.

[tobi0040]

As I recall most posters sung ​At Last when the Jepsen trade went down. Comments like "who's Hu" were common. While I (and others) thought more than one RP was needed, there was certainly a belief of "things are looking up."

I think that is half the story. It was the immediate reaction to a pennant race after 4 90 loss seasons, we may have been happy with about anyone.

 

Ask fans each offseason which approach they prefer, addressing a weakness with a contract or wait to see if we are good and trade our 12th best prospect (In a system that is supposed to be loaded) for help.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No, the point was minor league numbers do not mean as much as some would have them be. A Hu Slowey comparison is a bit off. Less further off than a  Stewart  and Hu comparison. They are all different pitchers.   I don't think Hu has been clocked at 97 with his fastball.   Hu has the gimmick palmball.  I digress, but the last pitcher I remember with a palmball was Bluegill. Bluegill Hughes had some success with it until he did not. Hu projects to be a back of the rotation pitcher at best. To give up that for a player who has had a couple years of success in the mlb is not an evil trade.

 

Tony Fiore had a palm ball...

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I seem to remember the Hu/Jepsen reaction being a bit mixed.  I thought it was a pretty high price... but we needed the help.  I didn't know much about Tapia, but I liked Hu.  I don't think that Tampa's get in the deal was far from exorbitant.  Trades mid season are expensive as the seller doesn't have to sell and the buyer usually needs to buy.  There's probably a bigger issue in that the pen was an obvious weakness that was never addressed.  That was something that should have been done earlier on, and something that should have been done this season (though in the FO's defense, a better pen would have added what, a few more wins to this abomination of a season?)

 

Let's try though and get things back on topic just a bit.  It's our turn to hopefully have some leverage.  I'm not as confident as I should be, though this team has by far been worse than any of the previous teams at this point so perhaps they have the sell confirmation they need... I sure hope so.  Other than Dozier, I'm not expecting any big names, but by all means, we should be picking up pieces where ever we can. 

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Tony Fiore had a palm ball...

Roy Halladay was probably the best palm baller, at least of my era.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not a fan, in principle, of trading assets for relief pitchers. They are too hit or miss, and even the good ones flame out fast.

Therefore, I didn't like the trade then, and likewise I'll defend the Twins the next time they are a contender and choose not to trade for bullpen arms.

[tobi0040]

I'm not a fan, in principle, of trading assets for relief pitchers. They are too hit or miss, and even the good ones flame out fast.

Therefore, I didn't like the trade then, and likewise I'll defend the Twins the next time they are a contender and choose not to trade for bullpen arms.

We need to think position scarcity. We can buy relievers on the free agent market. We should be hoarding our starters and catchers, SS, etc

 

Same with draft picks. Don't take relievers in the top 50 overall.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- there have been multiple moderator notes in this thread. If people keep being disrespectful/sarcastic then we are going to start suspending their posting privileges. And it does not help to keep making the same arguments over and over.

[d-mac]

 

From reports with what Stewart is capable of throwing his ceiling is higher than Hu's.  Kevin Slowey had similar numbers to Hu's when he was at AAA. How did that work out over time? Also those are Stewart's first 5 games. in AA  Believe it or not it might be learning going on and one bad game really skews numbers.

 

Stewart would be lucky to have a career as good as Slowey's. Slowey had a K/BB ratio of 11.0 in A+ and 4.0 in AA; Stewart had a K/BB ratio of about 2.0 in A+ and 1.40 in AA. But don't let the numbers get in the way of a good narrative! 

[d-mac]

 

Yeah, but you're wrong.  Stat lines, esp the farther down, mean very little.  That's why it's more important to know about the stuff.  He's a nice prospect but I don't think anyone has him in the Rays top 10.  Fangraphs preseason review had this about him -

 

His arsenal consists of a low-90s fastball with decent movement, a slight but deceptive slider, a straight changeup and a palmball that acts more like a split-change. The Rays did well to pry him away from the Twins in the Kevin Jepsen deal, and this year will be his biggest test facing Double-A and Triple-A hitters. Nothing he throws s a true out pitch, which is why his command is so crucial to his advancement.

 

I think that tells you a lot more than his stat line.

 

No, I do believe I am very much not wrong. I will grant you stats from rookie ball mean very little, however A+ and AA numbers mean a fairly decent amount, even moreso for pitchers than hitters.

 

Numbers that matter for pitchers' success: K%, BB%, HR rate, age relative to competition. Hu K% is 50-70% larger than Stewart's, plus he walks about 10% fewer batters. Stewart has a slight advantage in HR/9 (slight advantage not by much, both are excellent in this category) and he is 11 months younger (so at least he's got that going for him). 

 

Let's frame it this way: How many pitchers have had success in the majors (or even reached the majors) after they put up a K% that was 30% below league average? League K% in the minors is generally between 17-20% for every level- Stewart's AA rate is 12%, so I'm being generous. 

 

As to your point about not having an out pitch- that may be absolutely true, but if Hu lacks a true out pitch, then what does Stewart have if his K% is at least 50% of Hu's at equivalent levels?

[gunnarthor]

 

No, I do believe I am very much not wrong. I will grant you stats from rookie ball mean very little, however A+ and AA numbers mean a fairly decent amount, even moreso for pitchers than hitters.

 

Numbers that matter for pitchers' success: K%, BB%, HR rate, age relative to competition. Hu K% is 50-70% larger than Stewart's, plus he walks about 10% fewer batters. Stewart has a slight advantage in HR/9 (slight advantage not by much, both are excellent in this category) and he is 11 months younger (so at least he's got that going for him). 

 

Let's frame it this way: How many pitchers have had success in the majors (or even reached the majors) after they put up a K% that was 30% below league average? League K% in the minors is generally between 17-20% for every level- Stewart's AA rate is 12%, so I'm being generous. 

 

As to your point about not having an out pitch- that may be absolutely true, but if Hu lacks a true out pitch, then what does Stewart have if his K% is at least 50% of Hu's at equivalent levels?

I guess we will just have to disagree.  Most (all) prospect rankings have Hu far below those other guys.  And it's because those rankings are doing more than looking at his stat line.  The pitcher that Hu most reminds me of is Liam Hendriks.  Both are short, RH pitchers.  Both had great control which helped them dominate the minors.  Both had fantastic strike out, walk and HR numbers.  Hendriks made the majors at 22 but failed to make it as a starter b/c he didn't have the stuff to play up in the majors.  He has since bounced around the league, playing for four teams and becoming a bullpen arm.  Stewart, Gonsalves, Jay are all better prospects. 

[d-mac]

 

Stats certainly have some meaning but you have to put it in context with what you know of the player.  Red Sox drafted Andrew Benintendi last year and he is already in AA but that doesn't actually tell us much b/c Benintendi was already filled out so most scouts thought he'd do very well in A ball.  (And, of course, he is a great prospect on top of that).  So with him, you probably want to see how he's doing against advanced pitchers first.  

 

As for Hu, he wouldn't be our plan B.  The Twins have both Stewart and Gonslaves at AA and they are both younger.  

 

Hu is probably ready for a bump to AAA soon, FWIW.

 

Secondly, I'd completely disagree that Hu is not a better prospect at this point- his ceiling might be lower, but his floor is a lot higher- I know the prospect traditionalists turn up their nose a high floor guy, but in terms of expected outcomes- they are every bit of the prospects that guys with the high upside are. Gonsalves for one has never really been a top rated prospect and he has all of one start in AA. As for Stewart- he's a non prospect at this point as far as I'm concerned. He might reach his potential and monkeys might fly out of my butt. What I'm saying is that the likelihood of him reaching potential is not significantly different than zero at this point. Very few major league average starters (not even talking about front-end guys) struck out fewer than a batter per inning in the high minors. Most back-end guys still had K/9's in the 7-8 range. If Stewart is in the 4-5 range, then I think it will be very unlikely that he'll get anything more than a cup o' coffee. 

[howieramone2]

 

We need to think position scarcity. We can buy relievers on the free agent market. We should be hoarding our starters and catchers, SS, etc

Same with draft picks. Don't take relievers in the top 50 overall.

As King Theo would say, there is no such thing as a young free agent. I would prefer to say away from relievers in the decline phase and those requiring multi-year contracts.

[gunnarthor]

 

Hu is probably ready for a bump to AAA soon, FWIW.

 

Secondly, I'd completely disagree that Hu is not a better prospect at this point- his ceiling might be lower, but his floor is a lot higher- I know the prospect traditionalists turn up their nose a high floor guy, but in terms of expected outcomes- they are every bit of the prospects that guys with the high upside are. Gonsalves for one has never really been a top rated prospect and he has all of one start in AA. As for Stewart- he's a non prospect at this point as far as I'm concerned. He might reach his potential and monkeys might fly out of my butt. What I'm saying is that the likelihood of him reaching potential is not significantly different than zero at this point. Very few major league average starters (not even talking about front-end guys) struck out fewer than a batter per inning in the high minors. Most back-end guys still had K/9's in the 7-8 range. If Stewart is in the 4-5 range, then I think it will be very unlikely that he'll get anything more than a cup o' coffee. 

And that's fine, it's your opinion, you can have it.  I've certainly been higher/lower on other prospects as well.  But there's a difference between being higher/lower and ignoring what information we do have.  You are looking solely at certain stats that reinforce your views.  You are ignoring information that doesn't fit in your structure.  In this case, the reports from prospect people that universally have Stewart as the better prospect, even before the season started.  They have all given reasons for why they feel that way, including information on physical traits, stuff and attitude.  

[d-mac]

 

I assume Hu, who is on the same level as Gonsalves and Stewart, wouldn't have been brought up either.  Frankly, if the Twins were contending this season it would have been because Berrios was brought up and Duffy and Gibson and Santana were pitching well, as well.  If we're hoping for Hu (or Gonsalves or Stewart) to pitch this season, we're in trouble.  None of them are making the majors this season.  (And the Rays, with their pitching disaster, don't seem ready to call him up, either).  

 

If the Rays are a pitching disaster, then what do you call the Twins? 

[d-mac]

 

No, the point was minor league numbers do not mean as much as some would have them be. A Hu Slowey comparison is a bit off. Less further off than a  Stewart  and Hu comparison. They are all different pitchers.   I don't think Hu has been clocked at 97 with his fastball.   Hu has the gimmick palmball.  I digress, but the last pitcher I remember with a palmball was Bluegill. Bluegill Hughes had some success with it until he did not. Hu projects to be a back of the rotation pitcher at best. To give up that for a player who has had a couple years of success in the mlb is not an evil trade.

 

A palmball is really just a different way of throwing a change-up- it has more sink than armside run of a circle change. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Stewart would be lucky to have a career as good as Slowey's. Slowey had a K/BB ratio of 11.0 in A+ and 4.0 in AA; Stewart had a K/BB ratio of about 2.0 in A+ and 1.40 in AA. But don't let the numbers get in the way of a good narrative! 

 

Slowey was also looking like he was going to be a really good pitcher until he took that liner off of his wrist.  I think we forget about that, but he was never the same after that injury. 

[d-mac]

 

The are middle of the pack when it comes to lob%.  for fip Nolasco is 37 out of 97 pitchers who have pitched qualified innings, 43 out of 135 starters who have pitched 50 innings. FIP has limitations.  WPA has the Rays as  12th in the league. That is a disaster

 

WPA has ZERO, let me repeat ZERO predictive ability. It has ZERO reflection of process. 

[Mike Sixel]

I think there are no current twins rumors. Let me check.....Nope. can't find anything.

[d-mac]

 

Chih-Wei Hu, RHP: Chih-Wei Hu was signed by the Twins as a free agent from Taiwan in 2012 for $220,000. He has pitched very well at the lower levels of the Minnesota farm system, posting a 2.29 ERA with a 48/13 K/BB in 55 innings for Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2014, followed by a 2.44 ERA and a 73/19 K/BB in 85 innings this year for High-A Fort Myers.

Hu is a 21-year-old right-hander listed at 6-1, 210 pounds. Despite his impressive statistical performance his stock with scouts is not extremely high. He lacks the physical projection that teams want in a pitcher his age and is unlikely to gain much additional velocity. That said, he does throw 90-92 MPH (occasionally a bit higher) and the fastball plays up due to the contrast with his palmball.

Reports on the quality of this palmball vary: some observers say it is a very good, even excellent pitch, while others rate it as fringy at best. It has worked just fine against A-ball hitters. We need to see what happens at higher levels, but Hu has good command and a chance to be a workhorse fourth starter type, or perhaps a reliever.

 

 

It is not like they traded a potential top or middle of the rotation pitcher. 

 

You're are quoting a scouting report from 2 years ago, when he was 20 and less physically mature? *Insert Yao "please"  meme  here*

[Craig Arko]

I think there are no current twins rumors. Let me check.....Nope. can't find anything.

I'm sure Mr. Souhan or Mr. Reusse will soon fill that gaping void.

[tobi0040]

As King Theo would say, there is no such thing as a young free agent. I would prefer to say away from relievers in the decline phase and those requiring multi-year contracts.

But age and decline apply to all free agents. And rarely does a team ever fill out a 25 man roster without a few. So each team has to dip their toe in.

 

I would rather focus on areas that we can sign good to above average players. We can't sign good starters, short stops, catchers, etc.

 

King Theo has probably signed about as many free agents as anyone

[d-mac]

 

I guess we will just have to disagree.  Most (all) prospect rankings have Hu far below those other guys.  And it's because those rankings are doing more than looking at his stat line.  The pitcher that Hu most reminds me of is Liam Hendriks.  Both are short, RH pitchers.  Both had great control which helped them dominate the minors.  Both had fantastic strike out, walk and HR numbers.  Hendriks made the majors at 22 but failed to make it as a starter b/c he didn't have the stuff to play up in the majors.  He has since bounced around the league, playing for four teams and becoming a bullpen arm.  Stewart, Gonsalves, Jay are all better prospects. 

 

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I don't discount the analysis on Hu- he very may well be Liam Hendriks 2.0 (by the way has had some decent success in the bullpen). I'm saying that Stewart at this point is less of a prospect than Hu is, and likely will be worse than Hu even if Hu is the second coming of Hendriks. FWIW, steamer projects Hu if he were called up today to the majors to put up ERA, FIP numbers in the mid 4's, Stewart gets a projection in the mid 5's. Also, when the stats do not back up scouting reports over several minor league seasons, discounting those scouting reports is justified. 

 

Sort of off topic- but every statistical study I have seen of the "Are taller pitchers really better?" question said there is no significant difference in innings per start, innings per year, bullpen appearances, K rate. BB rate, or HR rate. 

[d-mac]

 

And that's fine, it's your opinion, you can have it.  I've certainly been higher/lower on other prospects as well.  But there's a difference between being higher/lower and ignoring what information we do have.  You are looking solely at certain stats that reinforce your views.  You are ignoring information that doesn't fit in your structure.  In this case, the reports from prospect people that universally have Stewart as the better prospect, even before the season started.  They have all given reasons for why they feel that way, including information on physical traits, stuff and attitude.  

 

Like I mentioned in my previous post, I'm not ignoring information. I'm well aware of the scouting reports for all the players we are discussing. Hu is a low ceiling/ high floor pitcher with good command, above average potentially plus fastball that lacks a true K pitch. He has the potential to be a #3, but more likely a #4/5. FWIW, Seth always said Hu has the potential of #3. Nothing in his statistical performance has lead me to believe otherwise. 

 

Where we disagree is Stewart- I think when statistical history over multiple seasons over multiple levels of minor league ball all contradict the scouting report- doubting or discounting scouting reports is justifiable, humans after all are fallible. 

[alarp33]

Someone is calling Kohl Stewart a "non-prospect"?  Time for me to exit this thread.  

[Rosterman]

They why the %$@#$% did we spend money and a high pick on Kohl Stewart! Sheesh!

[DaveW]

Hu isn't a better prospect than Stewart, however that doesn't mean it's "Ok" the Twins gave him away for a mediocre RP.

[howieramone2]

 

Hu isn't a better prospect than Stewart, however that doesn't mean it's "Ok" the Twins gave him away for a mediocre RP.

They got the player they needed to stay in the hunt, for pie in the sky. 29 games, 1.61 era, and a handful of saves.

[DaveW]

 

They got the player they needed to stay in the hunt, for pie in the sky. 29 games, 1.61 era, and a handful of saves.

Way too little, way too late. The Twins ended up with the 8th best record out of 15 teams. Not good.