Twins trade rumors

[jimmer]

As far as Twins trade rumors go,  I haven't heard/seen a peep about a Twins possible trade other than one article that said Plouffe might be a consideration for the Mets, but that he wasn't better than what they have and that there were better options available.

[gunnarthor]

 

The bullpen in late August saw us rely on O'Rourke and Graham in a close game against the Yankees (with predictable results), AJ Achter got a chance to blow a lead in September, and we were still trying to salvage something from Perkins in the season's final week -- not sure if that pen was really a "strength."

 

I think the Jepsen addition was too little, too late if we weren't 100% committed to May in the pen (we weren't, we pulled him for a week in August for a spot start).  But even best case, it was unnecessary because we knew about our bullpen needs before the season even began.

Sure, they had down games in August but they were a lot better in Aug/Sept then before.  They had something around a 3.80era in 213ip in those months compared to 4.25era in 147ip in June/July.  And "too little, too late" is a bit disingenuous since they were in the WC lead for part of Aug/Sept (after falling below .500).  The pen wasn't the reason they didn't make it.

[DaveW]

Thanks. I just don't get the constant whining around here. I mean, if we're going to whine about losing a guy like Hu, we pretty much have to give up trading any prospects.

At the time I thought it was too much, and I still think it was too much. Hu was one of our better options in the minors, instead we trade him (a hard thrower) and keep around the soft tossing guy (Dean)

 

The twins really need to stop trading from a position of weakness for RP period. First it was Ramos, now it's Hu.

 

I guess one positive about this team being so bad this year is that there is no chance they will deal a guy like Rosario for a "proven closer"

[Mike Sixel]

By WAR....take it or leave it....

 

Twins were 14th in RP in August

18th in Sept/Oct

 

that doesn't seem like a "strength" to me. I doubt we'll agree on this, frankly.

 

I felt it was a half hearted attempt, and not a real go all in attempt (for the bullpen....which is what we are discussing). For the price of a guy that might be a SP or a better long term RP prospect, I'm not sure I would have done it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sure, they had down games in August but they were a lot better in Aug/Sept then before.  They had something around a 3.80era in 213ip in those months compared to 4.25era in 147ip in June/July.  And "too little, too late" is a bit disingenuous since they were in the WC lead for part of Aug/Sept (after falling below .500).  The pen wasn't the reason they didn't make it.

When looking at the result of a long sample of games, there is never one single reason a team "didn't make it."

 

They didn't have a great offense or rotation either -- if they wanted the bullpen to actually help them seal the deal, they probably needed to commit to improving it to a higher standard than just "better than before."  By limiting their external upgrades to Jepsen/Cotts, and not fully committing to their internal upgrade in May, they didn't do that.

[tobi0040]

Sure, they had down games in August but they were a lot better in Aug/Sept then before.  They had something around a 3.80era in 213ip in those months compared to 4.25era in 147ip in June/July.  And "too little, too late" is a bit disingenuous since they were in the WC lead for part of Aug/Sept (after falling below .500).  The pen wasn't the reason they didn't make it.

Wouldn't it have been ideal to simply sign a good pitcher or two in the off-season? Then they can help you for 162 games instead of 60.

[DaveW]

The Twins finished with the 8th best record out of 15 in the AL last season.

Let's please stop pretending like that is some sort of successful season the Twins should be celebrated for. To me that is the absolute bare minimum that could be expected after a 4+ year rebuild and 100+ million dollar payroll.

[DaveW]

 

Wouldn't it have been ideal to simply sign a good pitcher or two in the off-season? Then they can help you for 162 games instead of 60.

Yeah, the Twins obsession with signing crappy veteran starting pitchers (Why on earth was Pelf given TWO contracts with this team?) yet run for the hills anytime a good RP asks for 2-3 years is one of the more damning and frustrating things with this front office.

 

Of course they will always over pay for a closer, whether in years, money or trade chips, but they seem to ignore year in and year out the fact  that you need good guys to pitch the 6th, 7th and 8th innings as well.

 

They failed to address it prior to last season and it cost them a shot at the playoffs (games in April, May, June, July count just as much as August and Sept!)

 

So what do they do? They do the exact same thing this off-season!

And what happens?

 

2nd worst bullpen in the league!

[tobi0040]

Yeah, the Twins obsession with signing crappy veteran starting pitchers (Why on earth was Pelf given TWO contracts with this team?) yet run for the hills anytime a good RP asks for 2-3 years is one of the more damning and frustrating things with this front office.

 

Of course they will always over pay for a closer, whether in years, money or trade chips, but they seem to ignore year in and year out the fact  that you need good guys to pitch the 6th, 7th and 8th innings as well.

 

They failed to address it prior to last season and it cost them a shot at the playoffs (games in April, May, June, July count just as much as August and Sept!)

 

So what do they do? They do the exact same thing this off-season!

 

And what happens?

 

2nd worst bullpen in the league!

Terry Ryan does not change or adapt. He never has and never will.

 

I went from frustrated about his decisions to more upset with myself that I didn't realize this sooner.

 

At a minimum he is around the rest of the year. He will continue to play veterans and people with contracts over prospects that could help the team in the future. We will see the lineups and guys we should have seen in May starting in about September. Plouffe will effectively be sold. Take it to the bank.

 

If we are so lucky to have his services next year, here are a few things that will happen:

 

We will tender about three guys that we should not.

 

We will sign a few re-treads, both in the pen and rotation.

 

One guy will likely get extended that should not.

 

We will re-unite with one or two Twins that are in the last 30's.

 

All of these guys, the re-treads, signees, and former Twins will play more than 22-24 year old top prospects.

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, the Twins obsession with signing crappy veteran starting pitchers (Why on earth was Pelf given TWO contracts with this team?) yet run for the hills anytime a good RP asks for 2-3 years is one of the more damning and frustrating things with this front office.

 

Of course they will always over pay for a closer, whether in years, money or trade chips, but they seem to ignore year in and year out the fact  that you need good guys to pitch the 6th, 7th and 8th innings as well.

 

They failed to address it prior to last season and it cost them a shot at the playoffs (games in April, May, June, July count just as much as August and Sept!)

 

So what do they do? They do the exact same thing this off-season!

And what happens?

 

2nd worst bullpen in the league!

In fairness, Ryan DID say that bullpen was the #1 priority (whether one agrees with that assessment or not, it's what he said).  Then he did almost nothing to address it, but at least he knew it was a huge issue.

[gunnarthor]

 

Wouldn't it have been ideal to simply sign a good pitcher or two in the off-season? Then they can help you for 162 games instead of 60.

Sure.  They could have done that but we've played that game here every single offseason and you don't know what you'll get either.  Pat Neshek had superficially good numbers for the Astros but a .3 WAR.  Many here didn't want Luke Gregerson who didn't sign with us b/c he wanted to close.  And this offseason we were up in arms about not giving Tony Sipp 18m.  

 

A lot of teams make in-season trades to improve their rosters and it's not because all those GMs are incompetent.  It's because seasons go in unanticipated directions.  The A's sold their system for a couple mediocre starters a few years back and it blew up on them spectacularly.  We gave up Hu.  If giving up Hu is a stumbling block for you, you can't really complain about the team not trading prospects.  

[DaveW]

Jon Lester is mediocre?

[alarp33]

If you didn't like giving up Hu for a mediocre reliever you are never allowed to complain about lack of trades is one heck of a strawman. 

[DaveW]

Related: At some point we should probably just stop trading with the Rays.

 

Bad things seem to always happen.

[tobi0040]

A lot of teams make in-season trades to improve their rosters and it's not because all those GMs are incompetent.  It's because seasons go in unanticipated directions

Let's not confuse a few things here. The season does go in different directions. Some guys that were relied on don't pan out. Guys get hurt, etc.

 

But that is 100% different than not committing to win in the off-season and just waiting to see where we are in July because we don't want the horror of paying a good player in a bad season. Or knowing you have a weakness and not addressing it.

 

And it didn't work out for the A's. Or the Padres. But at least they tried. And it should say something that a team like the A's can swing for the fences, miss horribly, and still have 9 more wins than the Twins.

[d-mac]

 

And that's why you don't scout stat lines.  

 

I hate when people say this- At this point it has become almost a meme. Mention the stats of a minor leaguer that "old school prospect folks" don't think very highly of and that line is thrown out reflexively. 

 

The human mind will see things that aren't there and make connections between things that aren't correlated. Without data, the mind's interpretation of reality is unreliable at best. 

 

The great thing about baseball is that there is very rarely an area in the known universe where we find a closed system with a limited, known and measureable set of outcomes from discrete (or semi-discrete) events, like in baseball. A stat line can actually tell us a heck of a lot. There are certain things players do in the minors that lead to success at the major league level that will show up in their minor league stat line. For example, pitchers that have higher K% and lowe BB% in the minors have a higher probability of not only reaching the majors, but also success in the majors. Hu has a much higher probability of major league success with his 22% K% and 7% BB% in AA and 22% and 6% in A+ than does Stewart with his 12% and 9% rates in AA and 15% and 8% in A+, regardless of how good Stewart looks doing it. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Jon Lester is mediocre?

Shark and Hammel.

[gunnarthor]

 

Let's not confuse a few things here. The season does go in different directions. Some guys that were relied on don't pan out. Guys get hurt, etc.

But that is 100% different than not committing to win in the off-season and just waiting to see where we are in July because we don't want the horror of paying a good player in a bad season. Or knowing you have a weakness and not addressing it.

And it didn't work out for the A's. Or the Padres. But at least they tried. And it should say something that a team like the A's can swing for the fences, miss horribly, and still have 9 more wins than the Twins.

So, it seems you're complaining that 2014 Twins din't go all out to win the World Series?  I'm sorta lost at this point on your argument.  They didn't commit to win (but they did) but they didn't commit enough so it cost them Hu?  Is that it?  Or is it that they just didn't spend enough in FA again because I love that argument.  

 

It's also a bit insulting to say the Twins didn't try just because they did things differently than SD and Oakland.  And how did selling off Russell work for the A's? I suspect, considering how much we've spent complaining about losing guys like Hu, Jones, Benson and John Hicks, a Russell like trade for Buxton would not have gone over well.

[wsnydes]

 

In fairness, Ryan DID say that bullpen was the #1 priority (whether one agrees with that assessment or not, it's what he said).  Then he did almost nothing to address it, but at least he knew it was a huge issue.

This point drives me absolutely nuts and you nailed it.  He gets credit for properly identifying the issue, but that all gets taken away when he did nothing to actually rectify the situation.  My head explodes every time I think of this.

 

Let's not confuse a few things here. The season does go in different directions. Some guys that were relied on don't pan out. Guys get hurt, etc.

But that is 100% different than not committing to win in the off-season and just waiting to see where we are in July because we don't want the horror of paying a good player in a bad season. Or knowing you have a weakness and not addressing it.

And it didn't work out for the A's. Or the Padres. But at least they tried. And it should say something that a team like the A's can swing for the fences, miss horribly, and still have 9 more wins than the Twins.

This^^^^  I can't agree with or like this post enough.  You're either trying to win or you're not.  TR said repeatedly that the plan was to contend this year, but then did very little to improve the roster and did next to nothing to actually improve upon the weaknesses of the roster.  On top of that, the biggest move that he did make created more problems than it solved - mainly because it solved a problem/weakness that didn't exist.

[scottz]

 

Shark and Hammel.

Coming to NBC, this fall.

[gunnarthor]

 

I hate when people say this- At this point it has become almost a meme. Mention the stats of a minor leaguer that "old school prospect folks" don't think very highly of and that line is thrown out reflexively. 

 

The human mind will see things that aren't there and make connections between things that aren't correlated. Without data, the mind's interpretation of reality is unreliable at best. 

 

The great thing about baseball is that there is very rarely an area in the known universe where we find a closed system with a limited, known and measureable set of outcomes from discrete (or semi-discrete) events, like in baseball. A stat line can actually tell us a heck of a lot. There are certain things players do in the minors that lead to success at the major league level that will show up in their minor league stat line. For example, pitchers that have higher K% and lowe BB% in the minors have a higher probability of not only reaching the majors, but also success in the majors. Hu has a much higher probability of major league success with his 22% K% and 7% BB% in AA and 22% and 6% in A+ than does Stewart with his 12% and 9% rates in AA and 15% and 8% in A+, regardless of how good Stewart looks doing it. 

Yeah, but you're wrong.  Stat lines, esp the farther down, mean very little.  That's why it's more important to know about the stuff.  He's a nice prospect but I don't think anyone has him in the Rays top 10.  Fangraphs preseason review had this about him -

 

His arsenal consists of a low-90s fastball with decent movement, a slight but deceptive slider, a straight changeup and a palmball that acts more like a split-change. The Rays did well to pry him away from the Twins in the Kevin Jepsen deal, and this year will be his biggest test facing Double-A and Triple-A hitters. Nothing he throws s a true out pitch, which is why his command is so crucial to his advancement.

 

I think that tells you a lot more than his stat line.

[jimmer]

Coming to NBC, this fall.

fighting crime and moonlighting as bartenders

[jsteve96]

 

The Twins should offer to pick up 3-4.5 mil a year of Santana's contract and let a few teams "bid" him up. Might be able to get a C+ type prospect for him. Santana at 9 mil a year has some value IMO

we would get a B prospect for him at worst.. hes a middle of the rotation guy with a decent contract and teams give up prospects when theyre going for october.

[CampQ]

A-Rod is another good example of players playing for reasons other than chasing a WS ring. I don't think there's any question he's playing right now for individual records and the pay check.

Maybe he finds playing baseball a great way to procrastinate penning his memoir

 

Maybe he still finds it fun to play baseball

[tobi0040]

So, it seems you're complaining that 2014 Twins din't go all out to win the World Series?  I'm sorta lost at this point on your argument.  They didn't commit to win (but they did) but they didn't commit enough so it cost them Hu?  Is that it?  Or is it that they just didn't spend enough in FA again because I love that argument.  

 

It's also a bit insulting to say the Twins didn't try just because they did things differently than SD and Oakland.  And how did selling off Russell work for the A's? I suspect, considering how much we've spent complaining about losing guys like Hu, Jones, Benson and John Hicks, a Russell like trade for Buxton would not have gone over well.

That was a really bizarre interpretation of my post.

 

Calling the pen your #1 priority and doing next to nothing about it would seem like the definition of not trying.

 

My post was aimed at the Twins approach every off-season under Terry Ryan. If they think they are a 75 win team they don't add the few extra pieces in the offseaon and try and build a 162 game team. If they are pleasantly surprised and are in the hunt they overpay. This becomes a self fulfilling profecy for one. And two, trading mediocre veterans for 60 games almost always benefits the seller.

[DaveW]

 

Shark and Hammel.

Shark had a 2.99 ERA that year and a 3.14 ERA for Oakland.

 

Oakland was also up 4 runs with 6 outs to play to advance past KC in the WC round, and they certainly would have had a punchers chance the rest of the way IMO.

Sometimes bad things happen in playoff series (especially a one game playoff)

 

At least Oakland went for it.

 

Sure they gave up a hefty amount for them, but that's what happens sometime.

[DaveW]

 

 

Yeah, but you're wrong.  Stat lines, esp the farther down, mean very little. 

Well that's settled...

 

Also he sits 95, that's not exactly "low 90's" FYI

I guess I will disagree that stat lines in AA mean very little, especially when said prospect is only 22 years old and is showing a pretty damn good K/BB rate.

All I know is I would much rather have Hu as our plan B in the minors than Pat Dean....

Lastly, nobody is saying Hu is some front of the rotation type guy, however at this stage he looks like he could be a real nice #4 type. IMO the Twins could use a couple guys like that in the high minors, it would prevent them from overpaying for back end rotation guys on the FA market (Nolasco, Pelfrey X2 etc)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sure.  They could have done that but we've played that game here every single offseason and you don't know what you'll get either.  Pat Neshek had superficially good numbers for the Astros but a .3 WAR.  Many here didn't want Luke Gregerson who didn't sign with us b/c he wanted to close.  And this offseason we were up in arms about not giving Tony Sipp 18m.

Sure, fans may not be able to accurately predict player performance, and thus would often be better off doing nothing.  But I hope we are holding our front office to a higher standard than that.

[gunnarthor]

 

That was a really bizarre interpretation of my post.

Calling the pen your #1 priority and doing next to nothing about it would seem like the definition of not trying.

My post was aimed at the Twins approach every off-season under Terry Ryan. If they think they are a 75 win team they don't add the few extra pieces in the offseaon and try and build a 162 game team. If they are pleasantly surprised and are in the hunt they overpay. This becomes a self fulfilling profecy for one. And two, trading mediocre veterans for 60 games almost always benefits the seller.

I don't believe Ryan called the pen his #1 priority going into last season.  But again, that's what happens when teams trade away prospects.  Twins do it far less than other teams.  

[DaveW]

 

 

  And how did selling off Russell work for the A's?

FWIW The A's then traded Shark for the following:

 

Marcus Semien: SS

105 OPS+ as a A

2.7 WAR last year, on pace for 3.0 WAR this year and 25+ HR.

 

Josh Phegley: Catcher

107 OPS+ thus far as an A

One of the better backup catchers in baseball, who could be a potential starter as a trade chip.

 

Bassit: SP

A guy who put up a 3.54 ERA for them last season (injured this season)

 

 

Losing Russel hurts no doubt, but honestly, for what they ended up flipping for Shark it's not that bad of a deal overall for them. Semien WAR wise pretty much has equaled what Russel has thus far (albeit the upside isn't the same)