Twins trade rumors

[Vanimal46]

 

You're implying that he's got his family around him so why would he want to leave.    I'm implying that he's wealthy enough to leave and easily still have family around.    It's noble to stay and want to win in your hometown, but it's not going to happen here for him.    I don't think it's that crazy to say he should want to play for a winner

He's wealthy enough to leave and easily still have family around, sure. The other beauty of being wealthy is choosing where you want to live, and he's been loyal to his home state. All signs are indicating that playing in his home state far outweighs his desire to chase a WS ring. And there's nothing wrong with that. Not every baseball player has winning a WS on top of their priority list. 

[Craig Arko]

 

He's wealthy enough to leave and easily still have family around, sure. The other beauty of being wealthy is choosing where you want to live, and he's been loyal to his home state. All signs are indicating that playing in his home state far outweighs his desire to chase a WS ring. And there's nothing wrong with that. Not every baseball player has winning a WS on top of their priority list. 

At the risk of being burned for heresy, not every baseball fan does either.

[tobi0040]

They could put another bar in Target Field. Or hire a consultant to expand the concessions options further while adding to the already steep cost.

They could pay people to "fill in" the seats at games. Like the Oscars does.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, Cafardo is not the best source and Santana type trades are rare.  The reason I created the thread in the first place was that I was surprised their were rumors about Santana and the quote from the unnamed assistant GM.  I'd still bet against the Twins trading him and I don't think we should trade him to just get out from his contract, but it'll be fun if we just had another chip for the trade deadline b/c not a lot of good has happened this season.  

That would be fun, I just don't see Santana as that chip.  Some team might be willing to take his contract in the right circumstances, he could even be an August waiver claim, but I can't see anyone bidding to exchange real value for it.  (Which is kind of the problem with a lot of Twins players, not unrelated to the "not a lot of good" happening this season...)

[alarp33]

 

Ever heard of putting words in someone's mouth?  My gosh

 

I didn't intend to put words in your mouth.  Being upset he is making so much money is really the only reason I could think of why someone is advocating Mauer "should want to be traded".  

 

He earned his contract, and he earned his no trade clause.  

[tobi0040]

He's wealthy enough to leave and easily still have family around, sure. The other beauty of being wealthy is choosing where you want to live, and he's been loyal to his home state. All signs are indicating that playing in his home state far outweighs his desire to chase a WS ring. And there's nothing wrong with that. Not every baseball player has winning a WS on top of their priority list.

Yeah. Most players who have logged 8 plus years are wealthy enough to retire well before they do. I don't think Alex Rodriguez needs to play this year if he didn't want to.

[wsnydes]

 

They could pay people to "fill in" the seats at games. Like the Oscars does.

 

[frantically dials ticket rep]

[KGB]

 

I agree 100% with this.  The one name not mentioned is Plouffe, but he should be first on the block, no matter what they could or could not get for him.  He is definitely blocking the future.

 

Looking to the future is good, but you need someone around to teach the kids coming up how to play at this level, and how to not be satisfied just being here.  I think Dozier fits this bill. 
 

Giving up Santana for nothing makes no sense.  If they get a high potential return, then go ahead, but I don't see that happening.  Therefore, keep him on the roster, because it will cost even more to replace his mediocrity.  He's not blocking any youth movement, and is a good clubhouse guy.

Plouffe is only blocking the future if Sano can field at third.  Based on his minor league fielding stats, it's beginning to look like his actual future is at DH. 

 

In order to make trades, they are going to have to give up something of value and that maybe Dozier & Santana.  With Dozier, you have a young replacement in Polanco who I think can handle the position, and the return would be better than Plouffe and easier to replace.  Santana & Nolasco basically have been the same pitchers (see below), with Nolasco being hurt more by the poor fielding ( his BABIP in .350 compared to Santana's .300) and the return on Santana will probably be higher.  At this point, the Twins need to get the best returns and move on from some of the veterans.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Everyday Eddy]

 

I didn't intend to put words in your mouth.  Being upset he is making so much money is really the only reason I could think of why someone is advocating Mauer "should want to be traded".  

 

He earned his contract, and he earned his no trade clause.  

I have no issue with his contract.    Twins did him no favors with the personnel they surrounded him with after he signed.    I operate under the assumption that besides earning a living, athletes value championships next.    Mauer doesn't really fit the mold

[laloesch]

 

Plouffe is only blocking the future if Sano can field at third.  Based on his minor league fielding stats, it's beginning to look like his actual future is at DH. 

 

In order to make trades, they are going to have to give up something of value and that maybe Dozier & Santana.  With Dozier, you have a young replacement in Polanco who I think can handle the position, and the return would be better than Plouffe and easier to replace.  Santana & Nolasco basically have been the same pitchers (see below), with Nolasco being hurt more by the poor fielding ( his BABIP in .350 compared to Santana's .300) and the return on Santana will probably be higher.  At this point, the Twins need to get the best returns and move on from some of the veterans.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Yes.  Finally someone gets the point. Twins should be looking to wheel and deal some of these veterans soon.  Not give them away, but openly advertise that the team is looking to sell (you fill in the blank with the appropriate player's name) that isn't part of the long term rebuilding plans.

[laloesch]

 

I have no issue with his contract.    Twins did him no favors with the personnel they surrounded him with after he signed.    I operate under the assumption that besides earning a living, athletes value championships next.    Mauer doesn't really fit the mold

 

I have no issue with his contract.    Twins did him no favors with the personnel they surrounded him with after he signed.    I operate under the assumption that besides earning a living, athletes value championships next.    Mauer doesn't really fit the mold

 

It's not Mauer's fault what the Twins paid him either.  We fans can argue back and forth till we're blue in the face, but the truth is he's only under contract for two more years.  If continues to play for the Twins after 2018 it will be for a much reduced contract given his level of production. 

 

 

I think the much bigger dilemma is the albatross contract of Hughes.  We're stuck with him for three more seasons thru 2019.

[alarp33]

 

Santana & Nolasco basically have been the same pitchers (see below), with Nolasco being hurt more by the poor fielding ( his BABIP in .350 compared to Santana's .300) and the return on Santana will probably be higher.  At this point, the Twins need to get the best returns and move on from some of the veterans.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

It's not really fair to look at Nolasco's peripherals in comparison to others.  Someone pointed this out awhile back, but his FIP/ Siera have basically never matched up with his Raw numbers.  His FIP is often times around 3.9 or 4.0.  His ERA has been under 4.5 1 time since 2008

 

I like and buy into advanced stats as much as anyone.  But it's not really fair to say they've been the same pitchers, this is year 3 in MN for Nolasco. He has a 5.42 ERA as a Twin.  Santana has a 4.27 ERA

[Thrylos]

 

I am not sure paying Ervin to leave is a good move, especially if we aren’t getting anything of value back. 

 

You are decreasing your opportunity cost (i.e. getting more innings from someone like Berrios/May/Meyer/Jay/Gonsalves/Stewart/etc) the next 2-3 seasons in the majors, which is much more than something of value.   (ie. would you trade the next 3 years of Santana for the next 3 years of Berrios, straight up?  Of course you would do;  now sub Berrios with another of the other pitchers mentioned...)

 

Whatever else you can get in a trade will be a plus.   

 

The point here is trying to correct Ryan's mistakes of loading the rotation with overpriced and over-committed veteran number 3-4 type starters in a competing team, who are blocking better pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You are decreasing your opportunity cost (i.e. getting more innings from someone like Berrios/May/Meyer/Jay/Gonsalves/Stewart/etc) the next 2-3 seasons in the majors, which is much more than nothing.

 

Whatever else you can get in a trade will be a plus.   

 

The point here is trying to correct Ryan's mistakes by loading the rotation with overpriced and over-committed veteran number 3-4 type starters in a competing team, who are blocking better pitchers.

 

I had no issue with 1 signing, maybe 2.....so if you do something with Nolasco, and assume you get nothing from Hughes....you are left with 1 veteran signing. I think keeping 1 veteran is a good idea.

[alarp33]

 

You are decreasing your opportunity cost (i.e. getting more innings from someone like Berrios/May/Meyer/Jay/Gonsalves/Stewart/etc) the next 2-3 seasons in the majors, which is much more than nothing.

 

Whatever else you can get in a trade will be a plus.   

 

The point here is trying to correct Ryan's mistakes by loading the rotation with overpriced and over-committed veteran number 3-4 type starters in a competing team, who are blocking better pitchers.

 

I don't think the Twins (at least the current regime) see May or Meyer as a starter.  Jay, Gonsalves and Stewart if everything goes to plan are ready to help the MLB team when.. August 2017?  Trade Ervin at next years deadline if that's the concern.  

 

If Santana is traded this year, just keep in mind... TR will have to fill a 5 man rotation somehow. Meaning you're going to get another overpriced over-committed veteran  

[tobi0040]

It's not really fair to look at Nolasco's peripherals in comparison to others.  Someone pointed this out awhile back, but his FIP/ Siera have basically never matched up with his Raw numbers.  His FIP is often times around 3.9 or 4.0.  His ERA has been under 4.5 1 time since 2008

 

I like and buy into advanced stats as much as anyone.  But it's not really fair to say they've been the same pitchers, this is year 3 in MN for Nolasco. He has a 5.42 ERA as a Twin.  Santana has a 4.27 ERA

Predictive stats are definitely more useful with smaller samples and less useful with larger samples.

 

In the case of Ricky, his career FIP is .76 runs lower than his ERA over 1,600 innings. And they not been in the same ballpark the last three years. His k rate has still been decent, but he has given up a ton of hard contact.

[tobi0040]

You are decreasing your opportunity cost (i.e. getting more innings from someone like Berrios/May/Meyer/Jay/Gonsalves/Stewart/etc) the next 2-3 seasons in the majors, which is much more than something of value.   (ie. would you trade the next 3 years of Santana for the next 3 years of Berrios, straight up?  Of course you would do;  now sub Berrios with another of the other pitchers mentioned...)

 

Whatever else you can get in a trade will be a plus.   

 

The point here is trying to correct Ryan's mistakes of loading the rotation with overpriced and over-committed veteran number 3-4 type starters in a competing team, who are blocking better pitchers.

Your logic and premise are spot on. But the only guy right now that you can make a case for needing innings is Berrios. May too but we both know they aren’t moving him from the pen when we are in the middle of a pennant race (joking). I can find four other ways to get Berrios reps right now other than trading Ervin.

 

Jay and Gonsalves probably represent the next wave and won’t sniff the big leagues this year.

 

A year from now if two or three of Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, Jay, Duffey, etc. turn out to be key anchors we may wish we still had Ervin around. Because dollars to donuts five of these guys don't turn out.

[d-mac]

I think people are vastly overestimating how good of a pitcher Santana is. He had a xFIP of 4.42 last year and has an xFIP of 4.60 this year. He hasn't had a K/9 above 7.0 in the AL since 2011 and has only achieved a K/BB ratio above 3.0 twice in his career. Furthermore he hasn't had an FIP- in the AL since 2008.

 

If some team wants to overpay and give us something for him, the Twins need to jump on this trade. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Yeah. Most players who have logged 8 plus years are wealthy enough to retire well before they do. I don't think Alex Rodriguez needs to play this year if he didn't want to.

A-Rod is another good example of players playing for reasons other than chasing a WS ring. I don't think there's any question he's playing right now for individual records and the pay check. 

[tobi0040]

I think people are vastly overestimating how good of a pitcher Santana is. He had a xFIP of 4.42 last year and has an xFIP of 4.60 this year. He hasn't had a K/9 above 7.0 in the AL since 2011 and has only achieved a K/BB ratio above 3.0 twice in his career. Furthermore he hasn't had an FIP- in the AL since 2008.

 

If some team wants to overpay and give us something for him, the Twins need to jump on this trade.

Who are the five starters in the 2017 rotation?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think people are vastly overestimating how good of a pitcher Santana is. He had a xFIP of 4.42 last year and has an xFIP of 4.60 this year. He hasn't had a K/9 above 7.0 in the AL since 2011 and has only achieved a K/BB ratio above 3.0 twice in his career. Furthermore he hasn't had an FIP- in the AL since 2008.

 

If some team wants to overpay and give us something for him, the Twins need to jump on this trade. 

That's a fair point too.  Santana isn't exactly trending in a great direction.  I could see an argument to let someone else take his salary now if possible, like the Padres did with Shields, and then this winter grab someone like Rich Hill, or even a couple cheaper bounceback guys.

 

Although it's not clear yet that Santana is at the cliff where Shields was.  And if the outcome of losing Santana is a more guaranteed spot for Nolasco, Hughes, Milone, Dean, etc., that's not a good thing either.

[laloesch]

 

I understand the desire to trade EVERYONE.....I just don't think it happens. I am also not 100% sure it should happen. I am highly conflicted on a few cases for older players:

 

Dozier.....he won't be good in 3-6 years, when this team should be peaking, but he's also likely to be good for a couple years. I am not sure on Polanco, nor do I see another option he's really blocking. If you are sold on Polanco, you deal him. If not, I think you keep him unless you get a good lottery ticket back.

 

Santana.....you need 5 starters. I don't think he brings much back. I also think having one veteran the other starters can talk to and learn from does matter. I don't think Hughes can do that from the DL or bullpen, and given how Nolasco talks, I'm not sure I want that to be him. I'd probably keep him around, despite my feeling he's not part of the next great Twins' team.

 

Suzuki.....every team needs a veteran catcher. I don't mind Suzuki as a backup, I mind him as the primary option that is never PH for, and who wears out from too much playing time. If used properly, I think he adds value in the same way Santana does. That said....you could deal him and sign him or another veteran in the off season. I'd probably deal him, but if they kept him and used him correctly. I'd not be upset.

 

Other than that, I'd probably deal everyone over 27 or whatever age you want to pick. 

 

I think there are some that want to go hog wild and trade "everyone" because this is a 90-100 loss team and whatever Ryan has been doing has not worked to this point anyways.  With the exception of last season the Twins have been in the gutter for several seasons now and the frustration is  showing. Those fans want to blow up the team top to bottom and start over again, including coaches, GM and team president.  For what it's worth i get their point of view for sure.  However, we all know that's unlikely to happen unless Jim Pohlad goes postal after a 110+ loss season. Unlikely to happen.

 

 

That said, I think many of us want to trade the overvalued over priced veterans that have failed to produce enough to make the team semi competitive.  Guys like Plouffe, Dozier, Santana and a few others.  

[Mike Sixel]

Don't get me wrong, I wanted a blow up 3 years ago.....but I am listening to the side that thinks (rightly, I think) have a veteran or two helps along the way.

 

Although, the Astros are right back in it, so maybe they were right.

[stringer bell]

The only huge position player problem is Plouffe/Sano/Park/Mauer for three positions. The rest of the infield can shake itself out on merit--be the better player, you play. There aren't any untradeable guaranteed contracts to deal with. Same in the outfield, the best three play--I suspect Grossman becomes a pretty good fourth OF option pretty soon. Murphy needs to be recalled and start his season over. There, that's position players. Plouffe must go or take a seat on the bench more than half the time, Nunez should be traded after he represents Minnesota in the All-Star game and Buxton needs to solidify his position the rest of the way.

 

Pitching is the major problem. The back end of the bullpen has totally imploded, the original starting rotation has more disabled list stints than wins (I might be exaggerating) and the biggest prospects for the mound haven't been able to get it done with the big club (SSS). The veterans aren't getting it done and because of their contracts are standing in the way of younger higher-upside talent.

 

Get pitching back for every transaction. Trade Abad if there is a market (I think there is), trade or release one of Nolasco or Santana. Trade or release Jepsen. Stretch May out and let him start. Last in pitching isn't going to change until there are new faces in new roles.

[Mike Sixel]

I wonder how much the FO thinks it is bad luck, vs bad personnel? 

 

At some point, they really believed in some/many of these players......and it isn't easy to change an opinion once it is formed.

[wsnydes]

 

I wonder how much the FO thinks it is bad luck, vs bad personnel? 

 

At some point, they really believed in some/many of these players......and it isn't easy to change an opinion once it is formed.

This is a good point.  I think the FO has to realize that the bad luck component of that discussion would be extremely difficult to sell to the fan base though.  

 

Truthfully, it's most likely a mixture of both.  

[d-mac]

 

Who are the five starters in the 2017 rotation?

 

Does it matter? This team isn't contending in 2017.

[d-mac]

 

That's a fair point too.  Santana isn't exactly trending in a great direction.  I could see an argument to let someone else take his salary now if possible, like the Padres did with Shields, and then this winter grab someone like Rich Hill, or even a couple cheaper bounceback guys.

 

Although it's not clear yet that Santana is at the cliff where Shields was.  And if the outcome of losing Santana is a more guaranteed spot for Nolasco, Hughes, Milone, Dean, etc., that's not a good thing either.

 

I'm of the mindset that we aren't contending next year and likely won't in 2018, either. We should take whatever opportunity comes our way to to acquire more young talent, especially when the player to be moved likely won't figure to be a part of the next contending team. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Does it matter? This team isn't contending in 2017.

 

I do think it matters some, yes. While I admire what the Astros did, I don't think most businesses are willing to do that. Operating under the assumption that the owner and FO don't want to punt the year, it matters.

 

It might also matter so they aren't tempted to rush a prospect, or put one in a position that isn't right (May to the bullpen).

 

So, while I am frustrated, and largely want it blown up, I don't know I'd leave it a black hole.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm of the mindset that we aren't contending next year and likely won't in 2018, either. We should take whatever opportunity comes our way to to acquire more young talent, especially when the player to be moved likely won't figure to be a part of the next contending team. 

I recognize now that this is a different point than most others are making.  Yes, if some team wants to give us young talent in exchange for Santana, absolutely we should do it.  I suspect most here would agree.  But it's not happening, so it's a moot point.