Dozier, Plouffe and Suzuki hot. Good or bad for the Twins?

[jimmer]

 

That is quite the jump... do you think that makes him attractive to another team? I don't.  Do you think it makes him attractive to TR for a contract extension... Hmmmm

I think most GMs see a week like that and say nice week, but that's not who he is. if we can find someone to take him off our hands, that'd be great but I said a long time ago TR will keep him.

[jimmer]

 

Believe the Mets are looking Valencia,  Plouffe is probably plan B or C, unless you can add a player or two to help convince them the Twins deal is better.

Fangraphs has an article entitled, 'Danny Valencia, Future met.'

[mazeville]

It's always good when your players play well that should never even be a question. Only issue is how the front office reacts.

 

Plouffe should be traded. You could also make the argument for trading Suzuki. I doubt that neither would fetch a big return, but in Plouffe's case you could open up 3B for Sano and in Suzuki's case you ensure you get a return.

 

Dozier is an interesting question. On the surface he should get some interest. But I doubt that second basemen fetch much in return. But I'd definitely analyze the market to see what he can get, because Jorge Polanco will need to play. 

 

Had the Twins been a contender, Polanco could be used as trade bait himself to fetch help down the stretch. But given the team's serious descent into 100-loss hell, the team should look at building the farm system further. 

 

And then the rest of the year should be spent developing these young players: Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Polanco, John Ryan Murphy, JO Berrios, etc.

[alarp33]

 

Fangraphs has an article entitled, 'Danny Valencia, Future met.'

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/danny-valencia-future-met/

 

I just read this as well, here's the part mentioning Plouffe. 

 

The Brewers are using Aaron Hill at third base, so while he’s right-handed, he’s not exactly the kind of upgrade the Mets are looking for. Likewise Yangervis Solarte over in San Diego and Trevor Plouffe in Minnesota; they would add a body to the pile, but probably aren’t much better than what the team already has.

[nicksaviking]

 

You know, I always hear this team talking about others calling them or not calling them.  Do they realize that they can call other teams?  That phones work in both directions?

 

 

I do recall Ryan saying this at one point. I get it (but don't like it) if you're trying to play hardball and want to milk the best possible return for your guys.

 

But I'd think in this situation, the return is not nearly as important as actually clearing space for guys like Sano and Polanco.

 

Also, playing a game of chicken probably is never a great move when you're trying to move streaky hitters. Make a call when they're hot.

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Trading Zuke and Plouffe are no brainers and if we can cash in on Dozier at this stage it probably is as well. Not sure how these guys playing well is a bad thing, other than this is the Twins we're taking about here.

So, question on trading Suzuki.  Actually, this is probably a question ever since they signed Zuke:

Who's the replacement as starter?  Murphy, Centeno?  Or how do the Twins shop for someone better?

 

There are a couple of valid, internal replacements for Plouffe at third, so maybe his trade can garner a MiLB catcher with bigger upside? 

 

Kurt Suzuki is not my 'dream come true' as a catcher.  Maybe the new bat is "driving" his offensive Renaissance?  No matter, there's still the defense which is "serviceable".  Is there a wiling trade partner?

[jimmer]

 

So, question on trading Suzuki.  Actually, this is probably a question ever since they signed Zuke:

Who's the replacement as starter?  Murphy, Centeno?  Or how do the Twins shop for someone better?

 

There are a couple of valid, internal replacements for Plouffe at third, so maybe his trade can garner a MiLB catcher with bigger upside? 

 

Kurt Suzuki is not my 'dream come true' as a catcher.  Maybe the new bat is "driving" his offensive Renaissance?  No matter, there's still the defense which is "serviceable".  Is there a wiling trade partner?

He can't throw runners out nor can he frame pitches.  Not sure what his defensive value is, but it can't be a lot.

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/danny-valencia-future-met/

 

I just read this as well, here's the part mentioning Plouffe. 

 

The Brewers are using Aaron Hill at third base, so while he’s right-handed, he’s not exactly the kind of upgrade the Mets are looking for. Likewise Yangervis Solarte over in San Diego and Trevor Plouffe in Minnesota; they would add a body to the pile, but probably aren’t much better than what the team already has.

Thanks for posting that.  It's kinda what I've always said/questioned:  is the perceived value of Twins a player the same as what others see?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Thanks for posting that.  It's kinda what I've always said/questioned:  is the perceived value of Twins a player the same as what others see?

Well, right now Plouffe's value has bottomed out. He's a negative WAR player with injury/aging concerns.

 

If he puts together a good month and gets his OPS back near his career number, faith could be restored in him a bit and his value could normalize. He's a bit like Brian Dozier, though a few weeks behind. Both were relatively stable - though unspectacular - players who regressed in a big way this season.

 

If they can prove that regression was temporary by hammering the ball for 4-6 weeks, that goes a long way toward reestablishing their value (which, in Plouffe's case, is still rather meager).

[TheLeviathan]

 

I do recall Ryan saying this at one point. I get it (but don't like it) if you're trying to play hardball and want to milk the best possible return for your guys.

 

But I'd think in this situation, the return is not nearly as important as actually clearing space for guys like Sano and Polanco.

 

Also, playing a game of chicken probably is never a great move when you're trying to move streaky hitters. Make a call when they're hot.

 

Obviously a lot of my post was in jest, but I'm in total agreement.  I don't think I've ever heard Ryan describe his actions as "making calls", it's always about whether or not they are receiving interest from others.  It seems....passive.  And the results over his tenure speak to the idea that this may not be an accident or something I'm reading too much into.

 

We're at a place that calls for aggression.  The 25 and 40 man rosters need active attention and remodeling.  Pick up the phone Terry.  Call.

[nicksaviking]

Regarding Suzuki, he's a free agent after this year. Why wouldn't you trade him if you can get something back and clear a spot to give Murphy a real audition?

 

If Murphy busts, Suzuki will still be available as a free agent next year anyway and obviously there is nothing he can do to make his price unaffordable as a free agent.

 

Also, I'm pretty sure I said this exact same thing in 2014 except probably about Pinto instead of Murphy.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Regarding Suzuki, he's a free agent after this year. Why wouldn't you trade him if you can get something back and clear a spot to give Murphy a real audition?

 

If Murphy busts, Suzuki will still be available as a free agent next year anyway and obviously there is nothing he can do to make his price unaffordable as a free agent.

 

Also, I'm pretty sure I said this exact same thing in 2014 except probably about Pinto instead of Murphy.

There is no reason for Suzuki to be on this team on August 1st.

 

Okay, so maybe there's no reason for Suzuki to be on this team on September 1st... But I'm sticking with August 1st. If Ryan can't get *something* for Kurt, he failed to do his job.

[jimmer]

 

There is no reason for Suzuki to be on this team

I concur

[blindeke]

 

Injury usually tips the scales.  Especially if the other team is in a pennant race.

 

I'm kind of a n00b, but what's a "pennant race"?

[Monkeypaws]

I think the front office is driven as much by marketing decisions as they are by baseball decisions.

 

Trading Dozier and Plouffe might be good baseball decisions, but from a marketing perspective, you're losing two of the more popular players with the casual fan, which is why I doubt they are traded, especially Dozier.

 

If they are actually helping you win games it becomes even more doubtful they are traded.

 

Maybe Ryan will surprise us, but I'm not counting on it.

[alarp33]

 

I think the front office is driven as much by marketing decisions as they are by baseball decisions.

 

Trading Dozier and Plouffe might be good baseball decisions, but from a marketing perspective, you're losing two of the more popular players with the casual fan, which is why I doubt they are traded, especially Dozier.

 

If they are actually helping you win games it becomes even more doubtful they are traded.

 

Maybe Ryan will surprise us, but I'm not counting on it.

 

Umm, Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe are not bringing fans to the ballpark.  Winning baseball games brings fans to the ballpark

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I think the front office is driven as much by marketing decisions as they are by baseball decisions.

 

Trading Dozier and Plouffe might be good baseball decisions, but from a marketing perspective, you're losing two of the more popular players with the casual fan, which is why I doubt they are traded, especially Dozier.

 

If they are actually helping you win games it becomes even more doubtful they are traded.

 

Maybe Ryan will surprise us, but I'm not counting on it.

In my experience interacting with "casual" Twins fans, they do not know who Plouffe and Dozier are. They know who Joe Mauer is, and they tend to wonder if Johan Santana is still around somewhere. Dumping two uncharismatic middle of the road type guys is not going to put the "Ticket to Summer" contingent at risk.

[jimmer]

 

In my experience interacting with "casual" Twins fans, they do not know who Plouffe and Dozier are. They know who Joe Mauer is, and they tend to wonder if Johan Santana is still around somewhere. Dumping two uncharismatic middle of the road type guys is not going to put the "Ticket to Summer" contingent at risk.

Cant think of one Twins fan I know who doesn't know Dozier.

[jorgenswest]

There is no reason for Suzuki to be on this team on August 1st.

 

Okay, so maybe there's no reason for Suzuki to be on this team on September 1st... But I'm sticking with August 1st. If Ryan can't get *something* for Kurt, he failed to do his job.

Where is the market for Kurt?

 

Look at the bottom 10 in wOBA at catcher.

 

Dodgers? Is Suzuki an upgrade over Grandal and Barnes?

 

Red Sox? They have shown their preference for defense from catcher by moving Swihart. They have very good defenders in Sanchez and Hannigan.

 

Indians? Gomes.

 

Mets? D'Arnaud is back

 

Blue Jays? Martin.

 

Martin and Gomes are not hitting as well as Suzuki. I can't imagine that either team would see Suzuki as a second half upgrade with the bat and he certainly isn't with the glove.

 

If a team is looking for a catcher don't they go after Lucroy or maybe even Vogt or Norris? Chris Herrmann might be viewed as a better alternative.

 

There might be a team that sees Suzuki as veteran back up insurance. He might be claimed on August waivers. He isn't going to return anything of significance. It isn't going to shift the Twins outlook for the future whether Ryan does his job or not.

 

Ryan might be better off waiting to see if someone loses their catcher for the season in August and is desperate. Getting guys like Lucroy is no longer an option. Waiting for something that might not happen has the side effect of a trade not taking place.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

There might be a team that sees Suzuki as veteran back up insurance.

This is the most likely scenario, IMO. The second most likely is an injury between now and September 1st.

 

If that injury happens before August 1st, the Twins should be able to move Suzuki pretty easily... Especially if the injury is short-term (with Suzuki then taking a back-up insurance role).

 

Either way, I don't see the Twins getting anything more than a D prospect, maybe a C if they're lucky.

 

In other words, no one that will help the team before 2020 or so.

 

But trading Kurt is still the right move. A D prospect with marginal upside is more useful than seeing Kurt play out the season on a team that will struggle to lose fewer than 100 games.

[nicksaviking]

 

There might be a team that sees Suzuki as veteran back up insurance. He might be claimed on August waivers. He isn't going to return anything of significance. It isn't going to shift the Twins outlook for the future whether Ryan does his job or not.

 

 

I don't think anyone here is asking for anything of significance. All teams need a backup catcher even if Suzuki isn't an upgrade to the team's current starter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Obviously a lot of my post was in jest, but I'm in total agreement.  I don't think I've ever heard Ryan describe his actions as "making calls", it's always about whether or not they are receiving interest from others.  It seems....passive.  And the results over his tenure speak to the idea that this may not be an accident or something I'm reading too much into.

 

We're at a place that calls for aggression.  The 25 and 40 man rosters need active attention and remodeling.  Pick up the phone Terry.  Call.

Not only that, but when a little cash might grease the wheels, and the Twins have a history of never including cash, it almost makes it necessary for TR to initiate the discussion about a guy like Plouffe.

[markos]

 

Either way, I don't see the Twins getting anything more than a D prospect, maybe a C if they're lucky.

 

In other words, no one that will help the team before 2020 or so.

 

But trading Kurt is still the right move. A D prospect with marginal upside is more useful than seeing Kurt play out the season on a team that will struggle to lose fewer than 100 games.

I think the most likely return for Suzuki is an old, mediocre AAA bullpen arm. Of all the end-of-contract trades over the past few years (Morneau, Liriano, Willingham, Morales, Doumit), the Twins haven't acquired a single player under 22, and the average age was 24. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think the most likely return for Suzuki is an old, mediocre AAA bullpen arm. Of all the end-of-contract trades over the past few years (Morneau, Liriano, Willingham, Morales, Doumit), the Twins haven't acquired a single player under 22, and the average age was 24. 

Yeah, maybe... But the Twins got Escobar for Liriano. He wasn't a prospect but he was young.

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, maybe... But the Twins got Escobar for Liriano. He wasn't a prospect but he was young.

I think a lot of twins fans overstate how good Escobar is or how he's been for us.  It's understandable, our expectations are low.  For example, in 2010 when Smith went and trade for Hardy and signed Thome and Hudson I was through the roof excited.  On many teams, that's a blip.

[markos]

 

Yeah, maybe... But the Twins got Escobar for Liriano. He wasn't a prospect but he was young.

Sure, but he was still 23 at the time of the trade. I was mostly trying to reframe expectations for a Suzuki (or Plouffe) trade. I read your comment that a C or D prospect would be someone in A-ball who might help the team 4 or 5 years down the road - basically, a 19-year-old with a little upside. I think the more likely return will be a 23-year-old in AA or AAA with (essentially) zero upside. Now, sometimes those zero upside guys actually provide some value (like Escobar). 

 

Basically, I don't think anyone should hold it against Ryan if he trades Suzuki and only gets a 24-year-old AA reliever in return. That's generally the market for marginal veterans. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the primary return in a Suzuki trade would be salary relief. He's not making a lot, but $1 mil a month is probably more than most teams care to allocate to a backup catcher.

 

Given his history, I think TR would rather pay Suzuki $1 mil to play for us in August and hope someone gets desperate enough to take on his $1 mil salary for September, rather than grease the wheels by agreeing to pay half his salary on July 31.

[Blackjack]

 

I think the front office is driven as much by marketing decisions as they are by baseball decisions.

 

Trading Dozier and Plouffe might be good baseball decisions, but from a marketing perspective, you're losing two of the more popular players with the casual fan, which is why I doubt they are traded, especially Dozier.

 

If they are actually helping you win games it becomes even more doubtful they are traded.

 

Maybe Ryan will surprise us, but I'm not counting on it.

 

I'd like to give you a Like here but I don't like it!!! But I agree with you, marketing plays a big part in their decisions, they want to keep selling $8 beers and $10 hot dogs at Target Field.

[Blackjack]

I think the trading of Plouffe and Dozier have a lot higher priority than trading Suzuki, mainly because of the people playing behind them, Sano and Polanco, they need to play.  Catcher is a position where the backup plays more often, you can 'justify' sitting the starter. Zuk cools off, Murphy stays hot, gets called up mid-July and plays 50% of the time.

 

My odds of the three getting traded by the deadline:

Plouffe - 50%

Suzuki - 10%

Dozier - 5%

The odds of all three getting traded - 1.25%

Not saying what they should do, but what will happen.

 

[alarp33]

 

I'd like to give you a Like here but I don't like it!!! But I agree with you, marketing plays a big part in their decisions, they want to keep selling $8 beers and $10 hot dogs at Target Field.

 

So you think with Trevor Plouffe playing 3rd and hitting .251/.274/.382 they'll be able to sell those $8 beers and $10 hot dogs, but if Sano plays 3B and Kepler RF they'll have to lower the prices?